Comments on: Talking About Me Behind My Back http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2005/09/03/talking-about-me-behind-my-back/ local real estate news, statistics, and commentary without the sales spin. Sat, 20 Mar 2010 00:15:58 -0700 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: marin_explorerhttp://seattlebubble.com/blog/2005/09/03/talking-about-me-behind-my-back/#comment-63 marin_explorer Tue, 06 Sep 2005 01:52:22 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=38#comment-63 <i>There's not going to be a housing deflation anywhere that population is increasing.</i><br/><br/>Two assumptions there. Firstly: housing gains in recent years have been driven soley by worker influx--and not investors, which the NAR averages at 23% nationwide. Secondly: the rise (or fall) of housing demand compared to inventory. If inventory is rising faster than demand, than price increases make little sense (all things being equal).<br/>I used to live in Seattle, and a few things I've noticed during a recent visit: dramatic increases in "hot market" areas, and rapid building (volume) outside of Seattle. My guess is this: people who are enjoying gains in RE assume these prices gains are permanent, and increasing forever; the'yre still in what I call the "euphoria phase" of a bubble. Here in Marin,CA, where the bubble has burned hotter and longer, the euphoria is gone--people cannot sell their homes at their perceived "value". What is true here will become true in Seattle; it's only a matter of time.<br/><br/>The real player in this scenario is the credit bubble, the RE speculation that ensued, and the fallout that is inevitable.<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('63','marin_explorer',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('63','marin_explorer','<i>There\'s not going to be a housing deflation anywhere that population is increasing.<\/i><br\/><br\/>Two assumptions there. Firstly: housing gains in recent years have been driven soley by worker influx--and not investors, which the NAR averages at 23% nationwide. Secondly: the rise (or fall) of housing demand compared to inventory. If inventory is rising faster than demand, than price increases make little sense (all things being equal).<br\/>I used to live in Seattle, and a few things I\'ve noticed during a recent visit: dramatic increases in \"hot market\" areas, and rapid building (volume) outside of Seattle. My guess is this: people who are enjoying gains in RE assume these prices gains are permanent, and increasing forever; the\'yre still in what I call the \"euphoria phase\" of a bubble. Here in Marin,CA, where the bubble has burned hotter and longer, the euphoria is gone--people cannot sell their homes at their perceived \"value\". What is true here will become true in Seattle; it\'s only a matter of time.<br\/><br\/>The real player in this scenario is the credit bubble, the RE speculation that ensued, and the fallout that is inevitable.',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> There’s not going to be a housing deflation anywhere that population is increasing.

Two assumptions there. Firstly: housing gains in recent years have been driven soley by worker influx–and not investors, which the NAR averages at 23% nationwide. Secondly: the rise (or fall) of housing demand compared to inventory. If inventory is rising faster than demand, than price increases make little sense (all things being equal).
I used to live in Seattle, and a few things I’ve noticed during a recent visit: dramatic increases in “hot market” areas, and rapid building (volume) outside of Seattle. My guess is this: people who are enjoying gains in RE assume these prices gains are permanent, and increasing forever; the’yre still in what I call the “euphoria phase” of a bubble. Here in Marin,CA, where the bubble has burned hotter and longer, the euphoria is gone–people cannot sell their homes at their perceived “value”. What is true here will become true in Seattle; it’s only a matter of time.

The real player in this scenario is the credit bubble, the RE speculation that ensued, and the fallout that is inevitable.

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]]> By: Timothyhttp://seattlebubble.com/blog/2005/09/03/talking-about-me-behind-my-back/#comment-62 Timothy Mon, 05 Sep 2005 17:46:57 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=38#comment-62 I don't think there's anything particularly special about Seattle--though the fact that it's wedged in between water and mountains puts space at a premium. There's not going to be a housing deflation anywhere that population is increasing. <br/><br/>The "unique situations" are the ones that lead to "popped bubbles," not the other way around. That's why people like the other Tim have only a few scattered examples to point to.<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('62','Timothy',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('62','Timothy','I don\'t think there\'s anything particularly special about Seattle--though the fact that it\'s wedged in between water and mountains puts space at a premium. There\'s not going to be a housing deflation anywhere that population is increasing. <br\/><br\/>The \"unique situations\" are the ones that lead to \"popped bubbles,\" not the other way around. That\'s why people like the other Tim have only a few scattered examples to point to.',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> I don’t think there’s anything particularly special about Seattle–though the fact that it’s wedged in between water and mountains puts space at a premium. There’s not going to be a housing deflation anywhere that population is increasing.

The “unique situations” are the ones that lead to “popped bubbles,” not the other way around. That’s why people like the other Tim have only a few scattered examples to point to.

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]]> By: marin_explorerhttp://seattlebubble.com/blog/2005/09/03/talking-about-me-behind-my-back/#comment-61 marin_explorer Sun, 04 Sep 2005 19:59:35 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=38#comment-61 It's interesting to note how various blogs cite others in their commentary on the RE "bubble". Judging by several comments at those sites, it appears people still confidently state "the bubble isn't here", offering a few well-worn phrases about the "unique situation" of their market. I'm a little surprised the bubble isn't yet obvious in Seattle--despite seeing it for myself recently. Perhaps that's just the psychology of a bust's beginning, as chronicled at the Van blog.<br/><br/><i>"This is not the case here in Seattle because the forces driving up prices are inherent to our market."</i><div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('61','marin_explorer',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('61','marin_explorer','It\'s interesting to note how various blogs cite others in their commentary on the RE \"bubble\". Judging by several comments at those sites, it appears people still confidently state \"the bubble isn\'t here\", offering a few well-worn phrases about the \"unique situation\" of their market. I\'m a little surprised the bubble isn\'t yet obvious in Seattle--despite seeing it for myself recently. Perhaps that\'s just the psychology of a bust\'s beginning, as chronicled at the Van blog.<br\/><br\/><i>\"This is not the case here in Seattle because the forces driving up prices are inherent to our market.\"<\/i>',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> It’s interesting to note how various blogs cite others in their commentary on the RE “bubble”. Judging by several comments at those sites, it appears people still confidently state “the bubble isn’t here”, offering a few well-worn phrases about the “unique situation” of their market. I’m a little surprised the bubble isn’t yet obvious in Seattle–despite seeing it for myself recently. Perhaps that’s just the psychology of a bust’s beginning, as chronicled at the Van blog.

“This is not the case here in Seattle because the forces driving up prices are inherent to our market.”

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]]> By: Timothyhttp://seattlebubble.com/blog/2005/09/03/talking-about-me-behind-my-back/#comment-60 Timothy Sun, 04 Sep 2005 06:06:09 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=38#comment-60 My site's back up now--by the way, wouldn't you think that the coming exodus from the Gulf Coast area, and New Orleans in particular, is going to continue to drive up home prices nationwide?<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('60','Timothy',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('60','Timothy','My site\'s back up now--by the way, wouldn\'t you think that the coming exodus from the Gulf Coast area, and New Orleans in particular, is going to continue to drive up home prices nationwide?',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> My site’s back up now–by the way, wouldn’t you think that the coming exodus from the Gulf Coast area, and New Orleans in particular, is going to continue to drive up home prices nationwide?
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