So 26029415 re-listed and sold for $546,000 in late 2006. Now market value for November, 2007 is $685,000.

Shouldn’t this site/blog be called “Sour Grapes Of Seattle”?

FROM THE FIRST QTR OF 2005 ? Gimmee a break.

When the year over doesn’t look so good lets resort to year over two year numbers

When you can buy a nice house in San Diego for 3 million, no need to go to Laurelhurst with your bucks.

article title: “End Game of the Cycle in CA”

See the article at: “thehousingbubbleblog”- link on front.

“The economic expansion in this state is nearing historic proportions,” said Employment Security Commissioner Karen Lee. “Unemployment is hovering near all-time lows and we’ve had another month of widespread job growth. Construction is especially booming this year.”

wow, isn’t this like saying, “Thank God for Global Warming, think how much we’ll save on our monthly heating bills!!!”

Isn’t there one canary in Washington State’s Cole Mine that can overwhelm the hubris?

That is such a sad story about your landlord and his son.

Chalk them up as examples of what happens when a person only pays attention to a local media gone berserk with “saving the day”.

This is starting to remind me of 9/11. Remember how, after years of signals, we were all so shocked because the media never focused on the truth of what was happeing behind the scenes in our world?

There are going to be a lot of people who “never saw this coming” despite all the real information that’s been circulating for months now.

People were bailed out of the dot com mess by rising real estate prices, then people did the unthinkable in my mind – they borrowed against their homes to finance everday consumption and luxury items.

What we have just lived through I think will go down as one of the most profligate, irresponsible periods on the part of supposedly intelligent people in our history.

I agree with the assertion made a while back that we will see prices slowing in the high falutin’ properties first. I think we’re starting to see it already. My landlord, on his way to deliver a rent increase notice to my neighbor, just proudly told me how his son recently bought a house in Shoreline and how his kid definitely “did the right thing given the market today, otherwise he never would have gotten in.” Then he told me that rents were going up all over the city, and how all of Seattle is hiring college grads like crazy, there’s jobs a’plenty for everyone…. and isn’t it just wonderful to be alive in a time like now? I wanted to throw up.

“Home Prices Fall in Some Cities, But Not Here… Never Here, NEVER!! YOU HEAR ME!!!! NEVER!!!” *whimper* *whimper*

Its amazing how much the S.Times is humping for the RE industry in this town, what would be interesting is to see what percentage of their advertising revenue comes from Realt-whores….

If he was scared he’d be asking 435K.

I HAVE seen some scared flippers in my perusings of the MLS and county records. People who bought for 450K last year. On the market for 625K this year, reduced to 550K, off the list, back on for 495 and still reducing.

Those are the people who are getting scared. Some of them are getting awfully close to what they paid last year.

I’ve seen 4 or 5. And I wasn’t even looking for them. The County records could be a pretty interesting read as this thing plays out!

Let me guess… ONVIA?

My wife tells me of the orchids they had in the offices there, and the catered lunches…

Who thinks that they can get a >$200k appreciation in one year? Honestly.

These sorts of things make me believe that there should be no mortgage interest tax deduction, and that capital gains on property should be taxed at 95% in the first five years.

Punks. I hope they bust.

It seems to me that houses in ultra desirable, high end Queen Anne are taking a lot longer to sell than they were. It’s heartening to see that the frenzy has cooled a bit. My prediction is that we’ll see a typical spring jump in sales, and price reductions will be the norm as sales stall by fall. The media will be chirping a new tune about Seattle real estate by Thanksgiving, and we’ll be reading the manual to a whole new RE ballgame by next spring.

I’ll be buying a house in 2011.

It was REDUCED from 499K to 449K, still ridiculous but a reduction nonetheless.

Originally purchased by this owner in 1996 for 179K.

One of my fondest parts of the book was the section about the poet who lived in a swamp and wrote on the back of dried habra leaves about his deep longing for a rich girl who he was destined never to have.

Many centuries later, some marketers take a time-machine to go back and get the endorsement of this poet for some ink. This makes the poet rich, he leaves the swamp, and marries the girl he had so pined about. He then re-copies all his poems onto Habra leaves, using a late edition of his works as the reference (using the ink he was endorsing, of course).

Just a marvelous vignette of the problems with time travel…

I suppose it also speaks to the fact that “getting” things we want doesn’t always make things “better”.

Trends end, parties come to an end, they were fun for some while they lasted but they ALWAYS end in pain. A good indicator of how painful it will be is the sheer DENIAL that it will happen.

The real problem that people will have with this is that real estate is ILLIQUID in a down property market unless drastic reductions in price are present.

It is not like clicking the “sell” button for stocks. People literally get STUCK, they can’t get out, they suffer, they don’t know what to do, they are upside down and life goes from GREAT lets use some equity to go to Italy – to, “holy "chocolate", we better pare back on expenses”.

I smell a flipper… in fact, I smell a scared flipper.

Price Reduced: 03/23/06 — $625,888 to $598,888
Price Reduced: 04/19/06 — $598,888 to $578,888
Price Reduced: 05/11/06 — $578,888 to $575,888

As spd said, ZipReality is your best tool, but if the home has been taken off the market and relisted with the new low price (like some people I know), they aren’t going to be able to help you.

The first tier is falling into what is considered a “good” economy. When Smug-attle falls, it will not have that economy there to catch it.

Think Juniper Networks back in ‘01 and ‘02. They were still going up when all other techs were cratering. Then, JNPR went from $244 to $5 in just a few months.

Unless you are a realtor, I don’t think you have any database you can access to get that info.

It used to be you could go to Zip and see the DOM’s. You can still do that, but for the past 2 months or so, things get pulled and relisted as new a LOT. So the DOM’s roll back to “1″.

If you get a zip account and check it everyday, you can catch that when it happens.

Speaking of DOM’s, I’m seeing stuff that disappeared last winter from the MLS but never showed up in the tax records as sold. They’re back on the market now, hoping for that spring rally I guess!

One of those homes is a craftsman in Fremont. I wish I had made a note of how much they wanted for it last winter. I know it hasn’t gone UP in price but I’m not sure how much of a “discount” they’re offering now.

I think it’s nauseating that people believe they can sell a 3 bedroom house for 575K.

Incidentally, Fremont/North Queen Anne is about to suffer major traffic headaches for the next couple of years due to work being done on the Fremont Bridge. The north side of the hill is about to become a very inconvenient area to live in. I expect to see heightened traffic on the residential streets as frustrated commuters bypass Nickerson and Dexter and thread their way up the hill. I wonder if this will have any effect on sales, or perhaps rent. I guess time will tell.

Let me guess… ONVIA?

Apologies if I was inexact.

I used to think that the dotcom phenomenon was going to be great for my generation, that we were getting firsthand, front-line experience in entrepreneurial capitalism. Then I went to work for one, and witnessed the binge spending, the incredible waste, the complete lack of discipline and focus.

The HELOC party is the same thing. The smart people re-fi’d their mortgages and locked in historically low rates, at, say, 15 years. The idiots fired up the HELOCs, spent it all and then some. The idiots drained their 401Ks to speculate in condos. Read von Mises about “crack-up booms”, it’s frightening but spot-on true.

It is SO important that the responsible, the debt-adverse, not hold the bag for this mess when it all washes out, whether through FNM bailouts or runaway inflation. We refuse to buy a haus until 20% down and an inspection is the standard once again.

Kudos, Tim, for revamping the blog over the last few weeks. You had been dormant, but have stuck to your guns and have done very well with it lately. RE will be affordable in Seattle again one day.

Our turn will come.

First goes Boston, LA, San Diego, Chicago, etc. That’s already happened.

Then goes the next group, Seattle included.