David
Bubble Meter Blog

What the industry is going through appears to be much more brutal than most had anticipated even just a few short months ago,” wrote AG Edwards analyst Gregory Gieber. “Last year, our view was that it would be a soft landing, but as 2006 started to roll forward, our concerns grew and we abandoned the soft-landing view.”

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060605/sector_snap_homebuilders.html?.v=1

If you drive around May Valley, Renton, Sonohomish, Seattle downton, etc… You’ll see tons and tons of houses/condos being built left and right… Make your own conclusion

This blog is definitely not next :^)

Oh, and seriously guys, cool it on the personal insults against other commenters. It’s fine if you disagree and argue their points, but flat out attacks are uncalled for. I don’t want to have to moderate comments, but if every discussion keeps degrading into an insult-fest, I will.

Maybe the bloggers should fight back…I don’t think Windermere would be to happy if someone went to their site and got the Ben’s Housing Bubble blog…ha ha

There have been reports that several bubble blogs on blogger have been hacked.

Realtors getting truly desperate! ;)

Mesh-

I’m confused.

It’s normal for loan companies to start laying off staff, for Kirkland’s Merit Financial to implode. It’s normal for lenders to fold under massive losses because short term rate/bond pressures. It’s normal for Home Builders across the country to offer incentives, new cars, higher agent commission splits, weekend sales discounts of thousands. It’s normal for title companies to lay off staff. It’s normal for their to be virtually no hiring going on right now locally for title, escrow and related r.e. services–it’s Spring by the way when hiring ( temporary hires at minimum) typically occurs.

It’s normal for there to be virtually no price reductions in any price range over the past two years in the Seattle market–now it’s quite common. This is normal in a rising and or continuing robust appreciating market, particularly in Seattle.

It’s normal for most Home Builder executive staff and CEO’s to sell stock options in a magnificent and continuing great market–but they do and have over the last few months.

I’m very confused.

This is a normalizing market? Or, “soft-landing” market? If this is normal, then what’s a bad market going to present to us?

America’s Overvalued Real Estate

America’s Great Housing Crash of 2006

They’ve been replaced with some “work at home” and, ironically, “commercial real estate” spam.

Who is shutting these down and why? An anti-bubble blogger conspiracy? IS this site next?

Got a 950/mo. apt for 750/mo. It had been empty for a few months at the 950 price.

Moral of the story: if it’s not a bargain, keep looking.

There’s an interesting post on the Housing Bubble Blog from a mortgage broker in Nevada.

Apparently, the comps are dropping so fast there that the appraisers can barely keep up with it.

It’s causing problems for people wanting to refi and for realtors who need to somehow explain to clients that they are buying into a falling market when their loan amount is not approved.

Advertised rents are clearly deceiving.

A million dollar condo in Seattle? Lordy, who would brag about being such an idiot?

That thing better be about 5000 square feet with killer views in every direction.

Hope he’s near a grocery store and a newsstand. Does he know you can’t hail a taxi in Seattle?

Sheesh.

I thought your interviewer’s questions showed their own implicit and unexamined bias, for eg. in question #6:

6. If the bubble does burst, where would you see your blog going from there?….Or start blogging about your home renovations?

Only in this current mania does anyone care about home renovations and who is doing what. When this Ponzi scheme implodes as it must, no audience will give a crap about something as boring as renovations, and those idiotic ‘house’ shows will sink into oblivion, never to be rerun again.

The fact that the interviewer even asked this question suggests that, like most people, they have no idea what’s coming.

Phoenix condos have started dropping prices by- are you ready for this?- 50%!!

That’s right, 900K to 450K. Check out today’s “housingbubbbleblog”.

Looks like reality is BEGINNING to settle in.

Of course, in general, the good people of Phoenix still think there is no bubble there and their local RE scene is just fine.

Actually tho, I’ve kind of been watching (not saving) the RE section for a couple months now.

It seemed pretty similar in size til this week. I’ll save it from now on and see where this goes.

I’ve been wondering about these new condos downtown that start at 700K to over a million.

Wondering how long they’ll be keeping that price. Guess I’ve got my answer now. Not long.

You know in WA we love to watch CA slide down, we’re right behind them.

Looks like the top end is taking a hit down there too. Steve Wozniak’s place reduced down to 12 million last week from 24 million.

Talk about bringing down the neighborhood comps!

Last week: 18 pages total.

This week: 31 pages total. Bit of a jump!

Let’s see where we are in another month.

Am curious to see the condo ads with “!!!60% sold!!!” and see how many weeks/months they keep that in the ad. So far, they’ve been hanging steady at 60%.

Stugots.

Buying preconstruction has been HUGE in the San Diego market the last few years. You could lock in your purchase price and interest rate for as little as $20K, then wait and watch as your property skyrockets in value while you rub your hands together with glee.

Not so in San Diego anymore. Not even close.

A few months ago (I’m slow) I figured out why my landlord rented (23 year old realtor as well) his $600,000 2BD Downtown condo to my wife and I for a mere $1800, then tried to raise my rent to $2000. Luckily, we had been planning on moving to Seattle anyway.

So, being the less emotional of the two RE types at the moment – not to mention voyeuristic, I emailed him a few days ago to ask how it was going. He stated that he had an offer for $525K but had decided to rent it out again for another year.

If the last part is true, that means he’s out $6000+ on rental income since the time we left.

I DOUBT the first part is true (the offer), because looking on ziprealty at 425 W. Beech St., 92101, there are MANY condos for sale in this bld. 2 bed/1 bath, 2004 construction.

First, mine was on the 5th floor with a view of “bum central” or, the ace parking lot across the street. It’s 950 SQ FT, 2 BD, 5th floor and his offer was $525,000. Nothing special about the inside, it was all stock stuff, 17 floors total; K.Hovnanian builder was smart/lucky, sold last Penthouse Dec 2005. Side note: How can eurotrash afford $1.9M penthouses?

A few comps like above, again, all same building:

#710 (Seventh Floor) $ 460,000
#503 $460,000
#959 (Ninth Floor!) $489,000
#1667 (16th floor!) $599,000
#856 $499,000

As you know, higher the floor, MUCH higher the price. I’m pretty sure those 16 floor 2bd’s were going for $700-800K a year ago.

There are many more, too many to list, all prices have been reduced.

and the piece de resistance…

Unit #519, on the market for 290 days, asking $434,000. About $100K less than $525,000.

No wonder some people are getting emotional…