Posted by: The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

11 responses

  1. Furthermore, since many condo projects only list one unit in the MLS, wouldn’t that mean that the MLS statistic of “total active listings” for condos is significantly lower than the real number of condos available?

    You would have to be delusional and blind to think that this isn’t the case. Just walking around Ballard, I see new condo projects hawking their units left and right. Signs everywhere. Yet, when I do an MLS search, I see only one or two listings from these same places.

    These people are either ridiculously devoted to marketing their last two condominiums into a “hot” market, or they’re holding back listings. It doesn’t take a genius to see through the ruse.

  2. The impression I get of the MLS is that it’s still aimed 90+% at other agents.

    I haven’t seen any real stats on what % of total sales are listed in the MLS pre-sale, but examples like this make me very curious.

    All of the investor types I’ve talked to that have been in the business for a few years tell me most of the properties they buy and sell never see the MLS.

  3. ….which is why the NWMLS summary statistics are absurd. They’re unregulated, unofficial, and easily manipulated.

    It says a lot about real estate reporters that they publish the NWMLS data without even bothering to validate with county sales databases. I’ve found enough discrepancies between the two that I no longer believe anything that the NWMLS says.

  4. “So I take a client to the project to look at those listed units, only to be told, inevitably, that they are all “sold.” “

    Sounds like a lot of car dealers became RE agents. This is a classic used car sales tactic.

    Advertise that lowball car (that doesn’t exist) and when people show up to buy it….well, sir that car just sold, however can I interest you in a HUMMER?

    Believe me, the sleaze is just gonna get worse as desperation mounts……

  5. Sounds like a lot of car dealers became RE agents. This is a classic used car sales tactic.

    I’ll say. A few years ago I was looking to buy a used IS300 with a manual transmission – very hard to find.

    A large number of the cars listed in autotrader didn’t exist. I’d get “how about an Audi A4?”…

  6. >Sounds like a lot of car dealers became RE agents. This is a classic used car sales tactic.

    This doesn’t surprise me at all. In general, real estate agents will do whatever they have to do to sell a house. They do not represent the buyer nor the seller, they simply represent themselves.

    They manipulate the buyer and seller so a sale can occur as quickly as possible.

    Statistics show that realtors wait, on average, an additional 10 days before selling their own homes. Why aren’t they doing that for their “clients”? Obviously, if they hold up the sale they only stand to gain hundreds of dollars, versus a quick sale allows them to focus on the next deal.

    Welcome to the world of commission only sales.

  7. I don’t believe this for a second. REALTORs® are extremely ethical. A commercial told me so.

    When faced with a stern moral dilemma, you might just as well consult a REALTOR® than a priest or rabbi.

  8. The most rediculous thing someone could do right now is buy a house. There is no doubt that they would be buying at the absolute high point in the history of the Seattle market.

    We now head into fall and winter, and a deteriorating global house market. The seasonal change alone knocks off 5-10% annually, coupled with the housing bubble popping, someone would be foolish to buy today.

  9. The most rediculous thing someone could do right now is buy a house. There is no doubt that they would be buying at the absolute high point in the history of the Seattle market.

    I 100% agree with this statement. People must truly have their head up their (you know what’s – no curses allowed here) to be buying right now. It boggles the mind that some people could be so uninformed.

    My gut feeling which has never let me down is that many of these condos will be sold in the coming years at fire-sale prices.

  10. I just knew crap like this was happening! Hiding inventory to make numbers look tighter, scamming, etc.

    Anon 2:27 is right, as far as inventory, you can tell just by hanging out in those neighborhoods or even a glance at the MLS.

    About a month ago, Coldwell Banker changed it’s site banner from “Seattle Homes” to “Seattle Homes and Condos”. The push was on.

    The condo market is in jeopardy all over the US and Seattle just came a little late to this game.

    So everybody is nervous.

    Antway, kudos to that realtor for blowing the whistle on this one.

  11. The tactic, called “bait and switch” is illegal. I wouldn’t count on the Real Estate Board to do anything about it, but the WA State Attorney General’s Office would likely take an interest if it was reported to them. They have investigators, as well as lawyers, on the payroll.

    Someone who has experienced this needs to report it.

    By the way, as Synthetik noted, always assume a RE professional looks after their own interests first, despite that brokers and agents are suppose to have a fiduciary responsibility to their clients – very few take that seriously. (I venture to guess, most don’t know what the word even means.)

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