All I am trying to point out is, it just might be different, atleast for now. Will it go down, most probably yes.

>First, a swath of six monthly stats doesn’t indicate much, as residential RE tends to be susceptible to seasonal cycles (goes up a lot in the Spring/Summer, declines/flattens in Autumn/Winter).
I agree with the general statement above, but it needs more details. Here is what I noticed. Sale Nos depend on cycles and are thereby better tracked yearly YoY, prices are more month to month(increasing in a hot market and decreasing in a cold one.) Inventories are kind of in the middle, YoY will show a trend, but it is worth knowing MoM +/- to get advance idea of where the market is heading.
So, month over month price changes is important too.
Watch for the first 2-3 months, MoM prices go down.

Amit

Mushugy will be acting just like I was after my Infospace stock..

Put it this way the market made me sick for about 2 years after the fact.

Mushugy and many like will be very-very sick for a few years after the hangover kicks in.~!@@
Possibly, This time arround the chances are that when people are the point of hating real-estate that will be ABOU9T the right time to buy~!!

First, a swath of six monthly stats doesn’t indicate much, as residential RE tends to be susceptible to seasonal cycles (goes up a lot in the Spring/Summer, declines/flattens in Autumn/Winter).

If the six months you posted were to be analyzed, though, they suggest that median prices are flattening out. That, coupled with the sliding sales figures for that same time period would indicate that King County is headed for an RE doomsday or at least a soft-landing.

However, if you look at that monthly data over a course of 6 years, with a rolling yearly average, you will see that prices are trending up, and that sales have taken a sharp dive for the first time in recent memory. This, coupled with a flattening total sales volume, suggests that the money for the King County housing bubble is drying up (in a way that is not dissimilar to the way things played out in Southern California).

My mistake! :)

On the topic, the only investments that has seen that kind of returns this year has been gold\precious metals and maybe energy.

Amit

Hell, if it was up 61% you wouldn’t find anyone that bought last year selling at a loss this year!

Good thing they’re putting up some affordable townhomes just outside the gate to Windermere.

Additionally, a friend of my mother’s is a very prolific, high end real estate agent in the Windermere/Laurelhurst area. She was over one afternoon last week and when I asked how business was going, she flat out said that it’s gotten “seriously slow” and how “nothing has sold in weeks”. Every last home in Laurelhurst and Windermere are considered luxury, so, I’m going with the pro I know on this one.

That is a cumlative number ofcourse.
For single family home, the close sales median price in king county from Feb 2006 to July 2006
$392,950 0.76%
$405,000 3.07%
$419,500 3.58%
$427,950 2.01%
$434,950 1.64%
$435,000 0.01%
= 11.07% to be exact for 6 months.

You can get this from Tim’s large spreadsheet or the NWMLS Recaps.

Do tell me, if I missed something.

Amit

Can you clarify this? 10% month over month price increases for 3-5 months would mean houses had gone up in value between 33% and 61% during that time period.

I’m sure there are a few “samples” of neighborhoods that have done this, but that’s well above average.

Consider the following numbers for King County Single homes.

1. For the last 3-5 months of closed sales prices, MOM price increase is around 10% (I know that is atleast 2-3 months behind today’s prices, but is the only information to go by, asking price is not as solid indicator.)

2. Inventory though rising MoM for a while (since Nov 2005), it is only in the last 3 months YoY inventory % turned positive. Overall inventory is below 2004 highs, in other places it is 50-100% above 2004 highs. In some like Tampa, LV, it is even more.

I would not buy a house now due to the risk. Yet how bad things will get is not a given unlike in other places.

Amit

Disclaimer: I am not into real estate profession and am renting.

If housing construction and sales fall back to trend levels, it would mean many job losses.

That said, my guess is the speed in which the prices of luxury homes will crash will be outpaced only by the cratering of new condo prices downtown.

Keep up with the posts, come on, this is about the luxury home market. Take of the rose-colored glasses for a second.

People who hammer planes together, and even engineers like me, cannot support a luxury home market, unless and my union brothers all decide to turn one of these 1M+ places into a commune…

That’s old news…and they only moved the suit and ties. The planes are still built here.

Both Microsoft and Boeing have been on a big hiring spree lately. Microsoft hasn’t had so many new hires since 90s. The job outlook is pretty strong for Seattle right now. If that were to change we’d be more likely to see a real estate crash. As it stands were on pretty solid ground.

This joker must have missed the memo, Boeing Corporate bailed E.Marginal Wy and are now somewhere in the steel and glass of downtown Chicago… that and we just shut down Connexion… GANGBUSTERS I tell you!!!

Although, if you’re going to dispute if 1.3 Million is luxury, well hell, that might just be the bubble talking.

They luxury market in King County and Seattle is still super competitive.