First off, I don’t believe that I have made a specific claim to objectivity in the past, certainly not in the “Welcome” post you linked to. That being said, you are correct in your determination that I feel that I am a fairly objective witness to the housing market in Seattle. Allow me to quote the definition of objective to use as a point of reference.

3a. Uninfluenced by emotions or personal prejudices
3b. Based on observable phenomena; presented factually

You will notice that nowhere in the definition does it say “without opinion.” Rather, the requirements for objectivity can essentially be boiled down to “fact-based & emotion-free.” So, to address your question about whether it is possible to remain objective while advertising “for the bubble,” I would say no, I don’t think that it would tarnish my objectivity. I am not suggesting making an emotional plea to people, but rather pointing out the facts in a simple and elegant way that will “just click” with people. I believe that falls well within the definition of objective.

I probably would not have even brought up this question but I feel compelled to comment any time synthetik takes my writings out of context as he did earlier in this thread! ;)

I don’t at all follow the logic here. Someone (not me) made a comment that you took umbrage at, so you respond by questioning my objectivity?

Housing starts will rebound almost as sharply as they’ve been falling—a V-shaped pattern that won’t be nearly as damaging to the economy as the prolonged slump of a U.

Look for starts to slip from about 1.8 million this year to around 1.6 million next year. But in 2008, they’ll bounce back to the 1.8-million mark, though it’s likely to take a few more years to recover the 2 million a year crossed in 2006.

One reason: Home buying starts at a younger age now than in past generations. A bigger percentage of Generation Xers—the 52 million people now aged in their mid-20s to about 40—are buying homes than baby boomers did at the same age. Similarly, the leading edge of the next generation in line—echo boomers—are more likely to buy a condo or starter home than Gen Xers were at such a tender age. Since there are far more echo boomers than Gen Xers, that trend delivers a double punch.

In the meantime, baby-boomer demand will buoy turnover in coming years. A recent study by Hanley Wood LLC, a construction information company, suggests that as many as two-thirds of baby boomers—roughly 46 million of them—will opt to relocate as they retire. According to the study, two-thirds of affluent boomers say specifically that they intend to build or buy a home rather than stay where they are. And those wealthy boomers wield a disproportionately large influence in the market, helping to set styles and trends in housing.

So what do boomers, especially well-heeled boomers, want as they settle into their golden years?

About half say they’d consider living in an age-restricted community. The other half say no way.

About one-fourth will opt for a condo or townhouse, rather than a detached, single-family home. Only about 10% live in this type of abode now.

Most want one-floor living, either a single-story home or a bedroom, kitchen, bath and entertaining space all on one floor.

Low maintenance and minimal yard upkeep are a must, so that eliminates big gardens or lawns.

Also desired are spacious kitchens and baths inconspicuously adapted to suit less-flexible aging bodies: Grab bars in the shower. Storage that can be easily reached without requiring bending. Higher countertops. And space for grandchildren to come visit, but not enough space to encourage lengthy stays.

Your paraphrasing did not capture my point at all, so of course you do not follow your own non-logical phrase.

I think we should let The Tim answer since he obviously has a better sense of logic than you.

Takes some research on keyword terms, but it’s not that hard to get a high google ranking with appropriate search engine optimization.

USA Today, the Today Show, Oprah, and the nightly news will have a constant trickle of stories about FBs and mass foreclosures. The real-life data will be too widespread and horrible to ignore. There is no need for any of us to witness to the public on this.

That’s why I mentioned that what matters at this point is that nothing stupid is done by the political and regulatory class to try to fix this mess. Especially the inflation option. As a naive holder of USD$, why should I lose out to this speculative madness? I haven’t an ounce of sympathy for the FBs. None.

I do like to think that when this is all over, maybe Austrian-school economics will be vindicated (again). During the coming economic nuclear winter, read some Human Action or anything by Hayek to pass the time. These were great men, giants of the 20th century.

I like the t-shirt idea… FUN!

We could have uniforms with our handle on the back and our avatar on the front. “Team Bubble Bloggers”, “Sponsored by Our Own Self Aggrandizement”

have your blog address in the front…

and in the back something that has to do with the RE bubble…

then have a meet and go around open houses looking at houses while wearing the shirt…

I can see how people will actually get shot…

SHOULD DEF HAVE, not shouldn’t. I need a vacation.

Very ballsy.

If this was tried on a Sunday afternoon, I can see the headline on the Seattle Times:

“Realtor Guns Down Six Protestors at Open House in Ballard”

Now, THAT would be a way to get the MSM’s attention. Do we draw straws for who gets picketing duty?

http://WWW.SEATTLEBUBBLE.BLOGSPOT.COM

Along the bottom of the ad

We could have signs that give the relevant stats for the property: how much they are asking over what they paid, how big the mortgage is, how long it’s been listed (and re-listed) how many other homes the owner has, etc. Maybe we could even dig up info on the realtor.

We could show how many other homes in the area are for sale, and what the price trends are for them.

Our message could be, “it’s ok to be a bubble victim if you want to, just make sure you’re informed”. Maybe we could just position ourselves as providing consumer eductation.

Or better(worse) yet, actually have informational pickets outside of open houses at obviously overpriced properties–egads, this could get ugly fast! Wouldn’t it be something if more bubble-bloggers showed up at an open house than actual potential buyers–that, in itself, would speak volumes about the current state of the market!

You can bet that this would make the TV news and papers if it happened more than a few times around the Seattle area. Wouldn’t cost a dime (but others could argue, with some merit, that picketers should ‘get a life’).

Would dramatically increase the chance of getting run over by a realator’s Lexus, however.

Buses? Billboards on freeways? Sky-signs at ball games?

I like the idea of coming up with some sort of project that bubble blog lingerers can participate in. Something that would give tangible evidence to the groundswell of concerned citizens on this issue.

A march on WaMu headquarters maybe? :)

Or maybe we have rotating protests, targeting the worst bubble-blowers, with a few dozen people getting together with banners and signs outside a mortgage broker, or realtor, office each week-end?

Let’s see what they say.

Is it to be right? Do you want to save a few people? Do you want to hasten the deflation of the Bubble and a return to normalcy? (so we can buy houses)

What’s done is done. The best analogy I’ve read is an old one from Housing Panic comparing the Bubble to an atomic bomb test. We’ve seen the flash, but haven’t felt the shock waves — yet. They are coming! No escape is possible now.

I think as far as public advocacy goes, the most important thing we can do right now is to raise awareness against

1. Federal bail-outs of the indebted
2. Subsidies and other market distortions that put off the day of reckoning
3. Inflate the USD$

Basically, 3 ways of saying the same thing. We must take our medicine and ride this thing down.

“What’s my motivation?”

Hmmm… how about standing on the street corner with a sandwich board, ringing a bell?

Passing out little green bubble bibles?

Shaving ones head, donning an orange robe and passing out bubble bath?

Better: grass-roots effort, make a few simple placards “BEWARE THE HOUSING BUBBLE”, “ASK ME ABOUT THE HOUSING BUBBLE”, “THE HOUSING BUBBLE IS REAL”, etc.

Print up a stack of tri-fold fliers, making the full detailed case for the Bubble, then finishing with hyperlinks to all the key bubble blogs. Kinkos! Cheap.

Put on a crisp suit, and spend a few Saturdays handing these out at the Market and at Westlake Mall. Reach people before they sign up for that neg-am IO suicide loan.

“I just wanted to say THANK YOU to you (and Tim and S Crow) for all of your time and effort at conveying some semblance of honesty and clarity about the current regional RE market. (I learned of the blog about 3 months ago when it was referenced in an article.) Your contribution on “renting” this morning is a wonderfully useful alert, for example.”

“Your (and the other Seattle Bubble guys) notes have been hugely, hugely helpful and comforting in reinforcing my instincts about the market conditions. I want to buy again in the region some day (in case it becomes “affordable”), but I want to be able to take my time in doing so. Rushing and making a snap decision is not in my comfort zone by a long shot. But it’s hard to stay strong with so much “hype” surrounding the issue.”

So, I couldn’t let another day go without letting you know how sincerely I appreciate your contributions to a civil dialogue of common interest.”

Dustin suggested we may be involved in mutual masturbation, however that is clearly not the case.

We certainly don’t need to post an advertisement for “validation”. However, coordinating our activities together to do something in the “real” world can cause a lot of people to realize that it’s not just cranks out there who believe in the “bubble”.

Let’s put it another way: do you think that Tim’s or Ben’s blogs are having any impact on the broader housing meltdown? Absolutely! There are people who discover these blogs every day who had no idea how messed up the real-estate market really is. The more people who get this message, the sooner the markets will correct.

To me, these are the most compelling arguments for the real-estate bubble. If we aren’t in a bubble then ownership/rent ratios wouldn’t be out of whack, and people would be able to afford homes without exotic loans.

However, putting the precise content of an advertisement aside for a second (although this is an important subject), I would like to point out that the mere act of actually placing such an ad could get a lot of publicity (if we do a good enough PR job).

Having the bubble-sitters actually get together to accomplish some real-world task would cause a lot of media to take notice. It would show the depth of concern that is out there. I think this is precisely the type of story (i.e. a bunch of bloggers who pulled off a massive grass-roots ad campaign) that would resonate in a lot of media places.

Does it show that I have done a lot of work with PR in a past life? :)

1. Save your money
2. Research bank stocks
3. Buy long puts as needed
4. *POP*
5. Profit! yay!

Who cares about newspapers? I only read a newspaper when I’m at the barber.

You are the man! You must be an “old soul“.

The graph could be summed up with 3 simple letter – all in caps.

WTF???