the catch is that they are very unlikely to be able to offer 5 year ARM at that rate.

I guess I don’t understand why you go back to highlighting 4.4% after I pointed out the misleading nature of the “unemployment rate” commonly quoted. The Dept. of Labor issues a number of stats on jobs and unemployment. As I noted, the current “real” national unemployment rate is closer to 8% than 4.4%. Perhaps you prefer the misleading figure because you can compare it more easily. My point is that the economy is in considerably worse shape than the powers-that-be would like us to believe. Look at the CPI core rate – what a joke!

Anyway, I move on…maybe I’ll visit here again in a few months. Maybe not.

There’s another quadrant ad on how a family needs a bigger house to save their marriage… they needs space…

I can see how it will delay their divorce… for a year until the option ARM resets… it’s downright unethical

basically they’re subsidizing your interest around 5K a year or so… the equivalent of a builder backed option ARM with a teaser rate for 5 years…

This way, the comps don’t dive and orders don’t back out of the homes already being built…

if it was 30year fixed… I’d buy that house….

there’s gotta be some crazy catch…

At 4.4 percent, King County’s unemployment rate is solidly below the statewide average of 5.3 percent.
- The Columbian, 10.22.2006

As was pointed out yesterday, the national unemployment rate is also right at 4.4 percent.

So it would appear to me that we’re in decent shape, but not particularly better-equipped than the country as a whole (or other cities—like San Diego County which is at 3.9%)to stave off a housing downturn.

What to do when a market cools

I don’t think there’s always a strong link between housing bubbles and unemployment but many seem to. It’s a frequent refrain from some that Seattle is “bubble proof” due to its great job market. It doesn’t seem to hold up in other parts of the country where the bubble is undeniable.

I didn’t elaborate and will keep it short – The unemployment rate, as with other stats, can be questioned and argued about.

I suspect that the relatively high cost of living in Seattle has many who are fully employed scrambling some months. Just a guess though :-)

Non-seasonally adjusted October 2006 “U6″ = 7.6%

Seasonally adjusted October 2006 “U6″ = 8.1 %

“The popularly followed unemployment rate was 5.5% in July 2004, seasonally adjusted. That is known as U-3, one of six unemployment rates published by the BLS. The broadest U-6 measure was 9.5%, including discouraged and marginally attached workers.

Up until the Clinton administration, a discouraged worker was one who was willing, able and ready to work but had given up looking because there were no jobs to be had. The Clinton administration dismissed to the non-reporting netherworld about five million discouraged workers who had been so categorized for more than a year. As of July 2004, the less-than-a-year discouraged workers total 504,000. Adding in the netherworld takes the unemployment rate up to about 12.5%.”

What is the Seattle area’s real unmeployment number? And what about underemployment?

Do you know how much it’s costing Centex Homes to offer a 5 yr fixed arm at about 3.375% (one of their incentives)in one of their communities? I’m guessing about $25,000. And that’s just Centex. Just keep the sales price up but pay thousands to offer rate buy downs and closing costs. Median Sales prices propped up in markets being hammered across the country is at best disengenuous and in my opinion appraisal fraud. Go ahead an lend money on a $500,000 sales price when there were 25,30,50K in concessions. When concessions don’t work anymore, then what? Builders, particularly small independants, WILL drop prices. The ramifications speak for themselves.

Other tidbits:

A fairly high-end home neighbor house just closed. Wanna guess the financing? I’ll let your imaginations run wild.

Signed a refinance client a week ago that had about a $9,000 pre-payment penalty, thinking that took the cake for October. My wife says, no no, I had one that was $16,000.00.

All that equity wiped out in one fell swoop. My borrowers just went from one pre-pay to another and casually mentioned “well that’s life, we’ll just do it again in two years.”

S-Crow

Now is a great time to buy a home…. (and next year will be even greater)

Most buyer’s know that they can afford a bigger home than they think… (An option arm will get you more house than you can afford… but it will be your problem next year, not quadrant’s)…

Pity the ignorant…. but with the media yelling bubble day in day out.. those who ignore this deserve what they get…

I’m really not clear on why you feel the state’s unemployment rate is such a significant figure in relation to the Seattle housing market – especially since unemployment in this area is rather low — but I won’t quibble.

I hate to beat a dead horse but CNN’s latest Unemployment article may say something different. The State of Washington is 42nd in the country and has an unemployment rate %2 higher than Florida – one of the poster states for the housing bubble.

(It’s all under the Business link/ Jobs and Economy section

You might argue that the country on the whole has a Unemployment rate that’s low but Washington does not seem to be at the head of the pack in this category.

I suspect that people are still consuming while getting more and more tapped out. If things were fine, foreclosure rates wouldn’t be climbing and late payments on credit cards etc wouldn’t be going through the roof.

They don’t commit on whether it’s a great time to buy or to sell. NAR doesn’t even recognize when their demagogy stops working. They just hammer away at the plea to the public to throw its resources into the industry.