November Market Predictions Anyone?

As November draws to a close, would anyone care to venture any guesses as to what the King County MLS numbers for the month will show? Here are my guesses, straight outta left field:

Median Closed Sales Price (Res): $435,000
Median Closed Sales Price (Condo): $260,000
Active Listings (Res): 7,250
Pending Sales (Res): 2,000

If the numbers come out close to those, that would pretty much fall in line with my expectations for the close of this year. YOY listings would be up ~32% and sales down ~14%, while the median price falls back slightly to early summer levels (but up ~12% YOY).

I also predict that if pending sales are in that ballpark, there will be no shortage of claims in the press that the slow sales are “due to the unusually wet weather.”

What are your predictions?

  

About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

8 comments:

  1. 1
    Terry says:

    I recently read somewhere that November is supposed to be a “hot” month for real estate sales. Is that true?

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  2. 2
    synthetik says:

    We’ll probably see a slight decrease in home prices – except in Ballard.

    When I was watching home prices in San Diego they seemed to almost flatline for 12+ months during 2004-beg. 05′ from what I can remember. I think it took everyone in the ‘canary’ city awhile to realize most of the idiots had dried up.

    I will give Seattle one thing… Downtown San Diego had at least 30-40 condo projects going on at any given time during 2003-2005 – almost completely investor driven. I believe they actually accomplished what Seattle wants to do… unfortunately for them! Many of those condos have been on the market since 04′ and never lived in.

    I’m also predicting a 40% increase in trolls.

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  3. 3
    Richard says:

    [anecdote]

    I had thanksgiving with folks out in Ballard/Loyal Heights (33rd/75th).

    Well after dinner the conversation moved onto housing prices. General expectation was that baby boomers exiting the market would have a downward pressure on prices as they retired. If retirement was an option…

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  4. 4
    AmazedRenter says:

    Anecdotally, November appears to have been a terrible month for RE in my immediate area on the eastside (Sammamish). Not 1 house that I’m tracking sold; several were pulled off the market.

    Quite a few houses have been on the market for 150+ days now.

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  5. 5
    Peckhammer says:

    “Downtown San Diego had at least 30-40 condo projects going on at any given time during 2003-2005 – almost completely investor driven. I believe they actually accomplished what Seattle wants to do… unfortunately for them! Many of those condos have been on the market since 04′ and never lived in.”

    It’s interesting that you should mention this. I have been looking at SD condos, being that I am a bottom feeder. I am not sure the bottom has been hit yet, but the condo prices on many projects look to be priced better than new condos in Seattle. If I had a job lined up, I could easily trade what I have here for a comparably-sized unit there.

    OTOH, the only unit for sale in my building right now has been on the market for 100 days.

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  6. 6
    EconExchange says:

    Inventory will probably be down from last month but prices will be down also.

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  7. 7
    Anonymous says:

    has anyone read the Nov issue of business 2.0, on the topic of real estate? Seattle is listed as one of the cities to be Bubble-Proof, any comment on that? they argued that due to the strong local economy, that the market not only will not tank, it will eventually go up if the economy continues to do well.

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  8. 8
    The Tim says:

    Seabubble,

    Yes, we covered this story here a month ago when it first came out.

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