Comments on: November: Inventory & Sales Trends Continue http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2006/12/07/november-inventory-sales-trends-continue/ News & discussion about real estate & the housing bubble in the Seattle area. Sat, 21 Nov 2009 10:02:55 -0800 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.6 hourly 1 By: Seattle Bubble » Blog Archive » Tytler: "I don't buy into the 'gloom and doom'" http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2006/12/07/november-inventory-sales-trends-continue/#comment-27449 Seattle Bubble » Blog Archive » Tytler: "I don't buy into the 'gloom and doom'" Thu, 11 Oct 2007 01:31:35 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=472#comment-27449 [...] Seattle Bubble: …we could see a true buyer’s market (6+ MOS) in King County by next November. I’m not necessarily predicting that, but it’s definitely the direction the numbers are headed. (12.07.2006) [...]
Reply – Quote
]]> By: Christina http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2006/12/07/november-inventory-sales-trends-continue/#comment-9959 Christina Fri, 08 Dec 2006 16:07:34 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=472#comment-9959 I question the "weather" excuse. At the time I bought, several friends also became first-time homeowners. Interest rates were lower than what they are now, but the affordability index was around 120... It was winter, and we hadn't seen the sun in over a month -- we didn't even know what colour a room was painted until three weeks after we moved in, the tint was so subtle. Then again, all three couples had lived in Seattle for several years, and we knew what the weather was like. Maybe the houses selling at $435K and above are being sold to moneyed-but-foolish transplants who are skeered of precipitation. Or, what's on the market are shoddily constructed homes that leak, and somehow, surprisingly, the raindrops falling on people's heads in the sunroom aren't leading to sales.<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('9959','Christina',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('9959','Christina','I question the \"weather\" excuse. At the time I bought, several friends also became first-time homeowners. Interest rates were lower than what they are now, but the affordability index was around 120... It was winter, and we hadn\'t seen the sun in over a month -- we didn\'t even know what colour a room was painted until three weeks after we moved in, the tint was so subtle. Then again, all three couples had lived in Seattle for several years, and we knew what the weather was like. Maybe the houses selling at $435K and above are being sold to moneyed-but-foolish transplants who are skeered of precipitation. Or, what\'s on the market are shoddily constructed homes that leak, and somehow, surprisingly, the raindrops falling on people\'s heads in the sunroom aren\'t leading to sales.',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> I question the “weather” excuse. At the time I bought, several friends also became first-time homeowners. Interest rates were lower than what they are now, but the affordability index was around 120… It was winter, and we hadn’t seen the sun in over a month — we didn’t even know what colour a room was painted until three weeks after we moved in, the tint was so subtle. Then again, all three couples had lived in Seattle for several years, and we knew what the weather was like. Maybe the houses selling at $435K and above are being sold to moneyed-but-foolish transplants who are skeered of precipitation. Or, what’s on the market are shoddily constructed homes that leak, and somehow, surprisingly, the raindrops falling on people’s heads in the sunroom aren’t leading to sales.
Reply – Quote
]]> By: wreckingbull http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2006/12/07/november-inventory-sales-trends-continue/#comment-9957 wreckingbull Fri, 08 Dec 2006 02:16:15 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=472#comment-9957 BDChris:<br/><br/>One way to placate yourself is to rent a little nicer place. You will still be way ahead in the end.<br/><br/>Heck, I lived on Lake Washington for 5 years. Had my own dock and beach. Only way I was able to pull that off was to rent. It was 5 years I would not trade for anything.<br/><br/>WORST case scenario is you sit out a flat market. Best case...well you can do your own math on that.<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('9957','wreckingbull',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('9957','wreckingbull','BDChris:<br\/><br\/>One way to placate yourself is to rent a little nicer place. You will still be way ahead in the end.<br\/><br\/>Heck, I lived on Lake Washington for 5 years. Had my own dock and beach. Only way I was able to pull that off was to rent. It was 5 years I would not trade for anything.<br\/><br\/>WORST case scenario is you sit out a flat market. Best case...well you can do your own math on that.',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> BDChris:

One way to placate yourself is to rent a little nicer place. You will still be way ahead in the end.

Heck, I lived on Lake Washington for 5 years. Had my own dock and beach. Only way I was able to pull that off was to rent. It was 5 years I would not trade for anything.

WORST case scenario is you sit out a flat market. Best case…well you can do your own math on that.

Reply – Quote
]]> By: biodieselchris http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2006/12/07/november-inventory-sales-trends-continue/#comment-9956 biodieselchris Fri, 08 Dec 2006 01:44:13 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=472#comment-9956 OK I admit it. I want to buy a home in Seattle in the next 6 months. I wish I'd bought one 3 years ago but I didn't. <br/><br/>Renting and waiting for a "pop" or "soft landing" in the market is getting older.<br/><br/>Am I just getting impatient?<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('9956','biodieselchris',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('9956','biodieselchris','OK I admit it. I want to buy a home in Seattle in the next 6 months. I wish I\'d bought one 3 years ago but I didn\'t. <br\/><br\/>Renting and waiting for a \"pop\" or \"soft landing\" in the market is getting older.<br\/><br\/>Am I just getting impatient?',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> OK I admit it. I want to buy a home in Seattle in the next 6 months. I wish I’d bought one 3 years ago but I didn’t.

Renting and waiting for a “pop” or “soft landing” in the market is getting older.

Am I just getting impatient?

Reply – Quote
]]> By: wreckingbull http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2006/12/07/november-inventory-sales-trends-continue/#comment-9952 wreckingbull Thu, 07 Dec 2006 23:42:38 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=472#comment-9952 <i>Again, how was it that the collapsed local job market made the housing market "healthy" in 01 or 02?</i><br/><br/>Yep. I remember articles in both the Times and P-I in 2001 about new homeowners who found themselves underwater within a year of buying. Do you remember that Shug?<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('9952','wreckingbull',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('9952','wreckingbull','<i>Again, how was it that the collapsed local job market made the housing market \"healthy\" in 01 or 02?<\/i><br\/><br\/>Yep. I remember articles in both the Times and P-I in 2001 about new homeowners who found themselves underwater within a year of buying. Do you remember that Shug?',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> Again, how was it that the collapsed local job market made the housing market “healthy” in 01 or 02?

Yep. I remember articles in both the Times and P-I in 2001 about new homeowners who found themselves underwater within a year of buying. Do you remember that Shug?

Reply – Quote
]]> By: Grivetti http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2006/12/07/november-inventory-sales-trends-continue/#comment-9951 Grivetti Thu, 07 Dec 2006 23:38:58 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=472#comment-9951 <i>Again, how was it that the collapsed local job market made the housing market "healthy" in 01 or 02?</i><br/><br/>Bingo... that's like saying, "I just lost my job, but my black AmEx just showed... man, we're rollin' in it now! Beers on me!"<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('9951','Grivetti',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('9951','Grivetti','<i>Again, how was it that the collapsed local job market made the housing market \"healthy\" in 01 or 02?<\/i><br\/><br\/>Bingo... that\'s like saying, \"I just lost my job, but my black AmEx just showed... man, we\'re rollin\' in it now! Beers on me!\"',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> Again, how was it that the collapsed local job market made the housing market “healthy” in 01 or 02?

Bingo… that’s like saying, “I just lost my job, but my black AmEx just showed… man, we’re rollin’ in it now! Beers on me!”

Reply – Quote
]]> By: Grivetti http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2006/12/07/november-inventory-sales-trends-continue/#comment-9950 Grivetti Thu, 07 Dec 2006 23:37:23 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=472#comment-9950 <i>Wet weather and attention given to the mid-term election and the holidays may have affected sales, the MLS said.</i><br/><br/>OMFG!!! What a bunch of a**holes!! I knew it! I friggin' knew it!! Wet weather and midterm elections? As we say in the mathematical world this 'number crunching' is what we call a 'rectal transformation'... aka pulling b.s. stats straight out of your arse. <br/><br/>Hey, I heard there's water on Mars! Saweet! I'm sure the Ballard home-buyers will be out in force now! <br/><br/>What nonesense, this just goes to show noboday knows nuttin' when it comes to causality and the local market, and by looking at that chart Tim, this markets on a one-way rollercoaster to H-E-double-toothpicks...<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('9950','Grivetti',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('9950','Grivetti','<i>Wet weather and attention given to the mid-term election and the holidays may have affected sales, the MLS said.<\/i><br\/><br\/>OMFG!!! What a bunch of a**holes!! I knew it! I friggin\' knew it!! Wet weather and midterm elections? As we say in the mathematical world this \'number crunching\' is what we call a \'rectal transformation\'... aka pulling b.s. stats straight out of your arse. <br\/><br\/>Hey, I heard there\'s water on Mars! Saweet! I\'m sure the Ballard home-buyers will be out in force now! <br\/><br\/>What nonesense, this just goes to show noboday knows nuttin\' when it comes to causality and the local market, and by looking at that chart Tim, this markets on a one-way rollercoaster to H-E-double-toothpicks...',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> Wet weather and attention given to the mid-term election and the holidays may have affected sales, the MLS said.

OMFG!!! What a bunch of a**holes!! I knew it! I friggin’ knew it!! Wet weather and midterm elections? As we say in the mathematical world this ‘number crunching’ is what we call a ‘rectal transformation’… aka pulling b.s. stats straight out of your arse.

Hey, I heard there’s water on Mars! Saweet! I’m sure the Ballard home-buyers will be out in force now!

What nonesense, this just goes to show noboday knows nuttin’ when it comes to causality and the local market, and by looking at that chart Tim, this markets on a one-way rollercoaster to H-E-double-toothpicks…

Reply – Quote
]]> By: Richard http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2006/12/07/november-inventory-sales-trends-continue/#comment-9948 Richard Thu, 07 Dec 2006 22:56:22 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=472#comment-9948 <i>But a lot less the very healthy markets in 01-03. </i><br/><br/>Again, how was it that the collapsed local job market made the housing market "healthy" in 01 or 02?<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('9948','Richard',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('9948','Richard','<i>But a lot less the very healthy markets in 01-03. <\/i><br\/><br\/>Again, how was it that the collapsed local job market made the housing market \"healthy\" in 01 or 02?',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> But a lot less the very healthy markets in 01-03.

Again, how was it that the collapsed local job market made the housing market “healthy” in 01 or 02?

Reply – Quote
]]> By: CRichard http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2006/12/07/november-inventory-sales-trends-continue/#comment-9947 CRichard Thu, 07 Dec 2006 22:03:42 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=472#comment-9947 It's interesting to look at affordability in Q2 over the past 5 years:<br/><br/>Q2-06: 70.4<br/>Q2-05: 87.4<br/>Q2-04: 105.1<br/>Q2-03: 121.3<br/>Q2-02: 104.6<br/>Q2-01: 103.2 <br/><br/>We have substantially less affordability than 03. But, you hey, it is a lot closer to the the healthy markets of 01-02 than it is to 03.<br/><br/>Combine this last point to the rock-solid inventory numbers from meshugy's power post, and I think that the only clear conclusion is another year of 20% is in the bag.<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('9947','CRichard',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('9947','CRichard','It\'s interesting to look at affordability in Q2 over the past 5 years:<br\/><br\/>Q2-06: 70.4<br\/>Q2-05: 87.4<br\/>Q2-04: 105.1<br\/>Q2-03: 121.3<br\/>Q2-02: 104.6<br\/>Q2-01: 103.2 <br\/><br\/>We have substantially less affordability than 03. But, you hey, it is a lot closer to the the healthy markets of 01-02 than it is to 03.<br\/><br\/>Combine this last point to the rock-solid inventory numbers from meshugy\'s power post, and I think that the only clear conclusion is another year of 20% is in the bag.',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> It’s interesting to look at affordability in Q2 over the past 5 years:

Q2-06: 70.4
Q2-05: 87.4
Q2-04: 105.1
Q2-03: 121.3
Q2-02: 104.6
Q2-01: 103.2

We have substantially less affordability than 03. But, you hey, it is a lot closer to the the healthy markets of 01-02 than it is to 03.

Combine this last point to the rock-solid inventory numbers from meshugy’s power post, and I think that the only clear conclusion is another year of 20% is in the bag.

Reply – Quote
]]> By: Matthew http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2006/12/07/november-inventory-sales-trends-continue/#comment-9946 Matthew Thu, 07 Dec 2006 21:38:04 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=472#comment-9946 Shug,<br/><br/>Is anyone predicting an overnight bubble pop? I think most of the people on here are predicting a gradual rise of inventory as well as a gradual decrease in prices.<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('9946','Matthew',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('9946','Matthew','Shug,<br\/><br\/>Is anyone predicting an overnight bubble pop? I think most of the people on here are predicting a gradual rise of inventory as well as a gradual decrease in prices.',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> Shug,

Is anyone predicting an overnight bubble pop? I think most of the people on here are predicting a gradual rise of inventory as well as a gradual decrease in prices.

Reply – Quote
]]> By: deeplennon http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2006/12/07/november-inventory-sales-trends-continue/#comment-9945 deeplennon Thu, 07 Dec 2006 21:01:04 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=472#comment-9945 My boring predictions for Dec.<br/><br/>Median: 435k<br/>Active Listings: 5,700<br/>Pending Sales: 1,550<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('9945','deeplennon',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('9945','deeplennon','My boring predictions for Dec.<br\/><br\/>Median: 435k<br\/>Active Listings: 5,700<br\/>Pending Sales: 1,550',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> My boring predictions for Dec.

Median: 435k
Active Listings: 5,700
Pending Sales: 1,550

Reply – Quote
]]> By: deeplennon http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2006/12/07/november-inventory-sales-trends-continue/#comment-9944 deeplennon Thu, 07 Dec 2006 20:56:22 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=472#comment-9944 So current res inventory is 3 less then the mean of the previous five years.<br/><br/>I'm not surprised, are you?<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('9944','deeplennon',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('9944','deeplennon','So current res inventory is 3 less then the mean of the previous five years.<br\/><br\/>I\'m not surprised, are you?',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> So current res inventory is 3 less then the mean of the previous five years.

I’m not surprised, are you?

Reply – Quote
]]> By: meshugy http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2006/12/07/november-inventory-sales-trends-continue/#comment-9942 meshugy Thu, 07 Dec 2006 20:20:51 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=472#comment-9942 It's interesting to look at Inventory in Nov over the past 5 years:<br/><br/>Nov 06: 7,040<br/>Nov 05: 5,512<br/>Nov 04: 5,960<br/>Nov 03: 7,394<br/>Nov 02: 8,240<br/>Nov 01: 8,110<br/><br/>We have substantially more then record setting boom years of 04 and 05. But a lot less the very healthy markets in 01-03.<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('9942','meshugy',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('9942','meshugy','It\'s interesting to look at Inventory in Nov over the past 5 years:<br\/><br\/>Nov 06: 7,040<br\/>Nov 05: 5,512<br\/>Nov 04: 5,960<br\/>Nov 03: 7,394<br\/>Nov 02: 8,240<br\/>Nov 01: 8,110<br\/><br\/>We have substantially more then record setting boom years of 04 and 05. But a lot less the very healthy markets in 01-03.',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> It’s interesting to look at Inventory in Nov over the past 5 years:

Nov 06: 7,040
Nov 05: 5,512
Nov 04: 5,960
Nov 03: 7,394
Nov 02: 8,240
Nov 01: 8,110

We have substantially more then record setting boom years of 04 and 05. But a lot less the very healthy markets in 01-03.

Reply – Quote
]]>