Use the search function on this blog, and you will see that all your points have already been covered and discussed ad naueseum.

I know that post probably made you feel better, but next time why don’t you say something that hasn’t been said by every troll like yourself before????

Snore…. zzzzzz……..

And you are right! Seattle is still more affordable than New York City, California, Honolulu, DC and uh… uh… oh wait, no where else…

DOH! Wow what a cheap place to live! They aren’t making any more land, BUY NOW OR BE FOREVER PRICED OUT!!!!

Indeed. And after another 20 years of rent increases, you might be able to cover the cost of your bloated mortgage.

Good luck!

The writing is on the wall. There will always be people who believe one thing, and people that believe something else.

Let’s talk about new construction, specifically condominiums. Historically speaking, anytime you have 30% absorbtion rates (meaning, of the 500 condominiums that come on, 150 sell), you are in a seller’s market (meaning homes are selling at a quick pace and it’s profitable for a seller to sell). Anytime it is below this said 30% mark, you have a buyer’s market. Take a look at the absorbtion rate on http://www.alanpope.com and compare the aborbtion rates. We are currently at a 24.9% abosorbtion rate, below the 30% tall tell sign of buyer/seller market. But think about this… How many builders put ALL of their inventory on the market? Most of these homes are sold pre-sale or they just list 5 of their worst products to lure people to the site where they upsell them to a better property. Now, these statistics are pulled from the MLS which is a small representation of the overall product.

Needless to say, I think it’s safe to assume that there are a lot of buyers out there who continue to thirst for the newest, greatest product and people will always be looking to purchase a home. After all, it’s the biggest tax shelter/savings plan one can own.

Other factors that make Seattle different are these:

1. Strong Job Growth
2. Good city to do business in
3. Companies continue to grow
4. Lack of inventory close to the city, coupled with horrible traffic from locations outside the city
5. Steady migration into Seattle (net gains in population and tempered predictions of further population growth)
6. Restrictive Zoning (take a look at http://www.itsapriority.com and how they want to demolish the GMA)
7. One of the most affordable port cities on the West Coast.
8. We are taking lead from Vancouver, which was reported in the NY Times yesterday due to it’s resounding success of urban living.
9. This city is a cool and beautiful place to live.
10. Lack of ‘bubble’ type years of appreciation (no 30-70% appreciation over the span of a year)
11. Builders will not allow more than 30% of investors to purchase their product (even though standards have been lifted to 50% homeowner occupancy)

So, once again, you renter folks keep up the good work… we get to raise rents on you shortly and blame it on the cost of doing business.

I don’t follow the Portland market, sorry.

Yesterday, as in February 2006.

Great post Tim.

Hear that? That’s the sound of truth strrrreeetching (how long ’till it snaps?)

by ’sold’ does that mean fully mortgaged signings – or commitments to buy, held by a much smaller initial payment than a normal down-payment?

What happens when a promised date comes and goes, and appears to be dramatically in question?

The market is HOT!

I wonder if they’re lying?

109 units for sale
73 units sold

NOMA:

90 units for sale
66 units sold

source: fatreport

Hello All, been following this blog for well-over a year. Thank-You to Tim first of all, for this insightful exchange. I appreciate the knowledge and discourse here.

I’ve been in the ‘bubble’ camp for a long time. I guess it’s still a wait and see proposition, locally. Grew-up on Queen Anne and watched with pain the ‘progress’ of the market there. Until the last 5-years or so, didn’t consider myself ready professionally for the real-estate step. The steepness of the market has pressed me to ever higher aspirations professionally – we’ll see which expires first!

Ok, enough about me – my folks (retired and living in CA) have been looking for condo’s here for the last several years. This last year a casual search turned into more of an earnest one. During the Holidays, they went back to various locations, including both NOMA and Canal Station.

They were amazed at the lack of progress at both, as they insisted that both (last summer) were spec’d to be starting occupancy this Dec./Jan. – neither appear to be close. Maybe the usual delays, or possibly evidence of deeper systemic issues?

I’m curious as I haven’t heard any talk about delays with these large projects, and would think one would, as they are relativly high-profile.

Ok, back to lurking…

79 Units for sale
7 Units sold

Also, a 4K a month loss is no big deal when you can sell the condo for 20% more to another flipper after one month. Heck, two flippers can just keep doing this all year until they are multi-millionaires. I think the 2-3x run-up in house prices in CA and AZ shows conclusively that this is an easy way to make money.

It’s possible that it was just a poor choice of words on Ms. Cohen’s part, and the 9,000 number cited was really for the entire metro area (which includes a huge swath of land, from Tacoma all the way up to Everett).

It would still be a ridiculous comparison though, because the Boston area has almost double the population density (947/sqmi vs 543/sqmi). Of course condos are more popular there.

…they got their emotions played, and common sense and intelligence frequently has nothing whatsoever to do with emotion.

20% down: $121,300 to cough up at closing

$2948/month P&I
$521/month HOA
$300/month taxes

$3769/month

I know for a fact that similar Ballard condos are renting at about $1200 – $1300

All joking aside, HOW CAN PEOPLE BE THAT STUPID?

Financeguru?…..Bueller?……Bueller?

The media spins and spins and spins, and writes fluff pieces like that one, but what they write just doesn’t jive with what people are seeing. Price reduced signs. Dealer incentives. Buy my condo, get a car. Signs staying up for months and months and months.

But, yes…good catch on the “metropolitan area” subtlety, Tim!

7 units listed, but I’m guessing that’s just 1 for each floorplan.

Really? I thought the Seattle area was in the top five nationally for most expensive housing. Sure, it did not rise as high as the bay area or maybe Bostom so I guess that statement is technically accurate.

In the last rew months, I have never seen a single sucker in the Hjarta sales office. Does anyone know how it is doing? Sure seems like a different environment to me. I think the numbers have just not reflected it yet.