I think you are confused between Charlotte NC, and Charlotte SC.

Funny thing is, Shug, that if you are actually correct in your grand vision of appreciation, Ballard’s “punks and rockabillies” will be long-gone before too long. They can’t afford a half-million dollar mortgage or your imagined skyrocketing rents. They’ll all be in White Center, Rainier Beach, or (gasp) Tacoma.

I’m sure he has a great understanding of Seattle, WA, coming from a town that when school is out, has a population of 2k!

No thanks, I’d rather listen to Fleck!

Based on this, some people have assumed that Charlotte, (and Seattle by association) are special. (strong job growth was stated).

I found this ABC news video at Housing Panic:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NyaNpw4IKdU

If this is the same Charlotte mentioned in the Shiller article, then something is certainly wrong.

Could it be that there is a quantity of exotic mortgages in Charlotte still available that has allowed housing to remain relatively strong? Is there still plenty of mortgage medicine to keep housing activity (and prices) up?

I don’t know – but when 20% of a new housing development loses their house due to foreclosure, that doesn’t sound like a strong economy.

Actually, Crelling has been around a long time. He runs the Washington Center for Real Estate Research

My guess is that he knows a hell of a lot more about the market then we do.

Funny, having just relocated from Phoenix metro, I heard the exact same ‘market analysis’ about the Phoenix RE market from the same ambiguous ‘market observers’ before it started slumping.

Apparently these ‘observers’ were run out of town, and have set up shop here in Puget Sound.

It’s currently at 2.42% (feb 06-feb 07)

I’ll look more closely come August 7th to make sure we get the inflation adjustment right.

0.91% inflation? Are you kidding? What planet does that happen on?

Still…you wouldn’t think that the Hebrew Hammer would be threatened by elderly swedes…Oy gevalt! What are we gonna do now? Is there ever gonna be a shemozzle if these nudniks get outta control!

God, is there any company in the housing industry that was not turned into an instrument of wholesale looting?

Is there no end to the slime? We’ve just scratched the surface, and I already want to hurl. Part of me thinks prison is too good for these people; we should be wheeling out the f’ing guillotine.

Haha….that’s me! I’m a musician and have been playing the clubs in Ballard for 10 years! That’s why I like it here.

It’s simply fascinating how I can make one comment and you guys will analyze it to death. It’s like I’m a prophet or something….

The irony of this is that the cultural center of Ballard is Market street – well south of 65th.

The northern end of Ballard is Blue Ridge – winding streets with ocean views. What’s in the middle? Loyal Heights.

24th ave could evolve into a boutique boulevard between the high priced view homes and the entertainment district. Yet Meshugy sees it’s current underdevelopment as a detraction.

Not sure how to take that. If Ballard gentrifies along the same path as Capitol Hill, the areas closest to the entertainment center will see the greatest appreciation – and anything in between the luxury neighborhoods and the restaurants will be improved respectively.

I get the feeling that Meshugy likes the trendy appreciation of Loyal Heights, but hates the fact that it is in part driven by the low rent district that gives the neighborhood some character.

Fact is, Ballard night life is driven by the rockabilly punks and artists that moved there because the rents were cheap. Now that it’s becoming a yuppie haven he wants that element to leave.

Rental ghettos? Dude, you’re too much. What an a elitist snot…

The GOOD part of Ballard? get real… You’re such a joke. Good parts of Ballard you couldn’t even afford…

blogger A:”Just found a great rental for under $1200/month, zillow’s for 500K”

Shugster:”Yeah, but its in a ghetto, I would never live there because I’m an effeete intellectual who appreciates quiet, that and I think its healthy for my kids to play in the road”

Funny, a dude that cruthces on zillow for his self-worth, dismisses it when the properties aren’t up to his bizarre immeasurable standard.

Start your own property website dude… or stop quoting zillow

AP
Beazer Homes Faces FBI Investigation

Tuesday March 27, 6:52 pm ET
Feds Looking Into Fraud Allegations Involving Homebuilder Beazer; Stock Plunges

ATLANTA (AP) — Beazer Homes USA Inc., which has recently suffered hefty losses amid a downturn in the housing market, now faces a federal investigation of mortgage fraud and other allegations involving the homebuilder. Beazer shares plunged 15 percent in after-hours trading Tuesday.

The FBI and the U.S. attorney’s office in Charlotte, N.C., along with the Internal Revenue Service and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, launched an investigation of Beazer Homes last week, FBI agent Ken Lucas said Tuesday.

Lucas, a spokesman for the FBI’s Charlotte field office, said the inquiry involves “fraud in general” and more specifically is related to corporate, mortgage and investment issues.

http://tinyurl.com/3dfgmv

CPI inflation calculator

I’d like to use inflation adjusted (CPI) Single Family, King County, because I think that’s what we originally specified last summer, but I can’t find it. All I can find is Res+Condo, which was 390K (now 393K – so with inflation, I think I would currently be good).

I suppose the MLS will show the breakout when it comes around, however. SFH cool?

Ok

Seattle housing prices up 11% from last year

Seattle, unlike most, if not all, of the other metropolitan areas, continues to see robust increases in home prices,” said David Blitzer, chairman of Standard & Poor’s Index Committee. “My sense and suspicion is this says an awful lot about the general economic climate in the Seattle area.”

Seattle market observers have said the area’s strong job growth has helped buoy housing prices. As for flattening prices in recent months, Blitzer said Seattle is not immune to national factors, such as higher energy prices and interest rates and slowing economic growth.

“I think (prices) will continue to slow somewhat,” he said. “But are you going to look like Detroit in six months? No, I don’t think so.”

And are good friend Crellin says:

“You don’t see much month-to-month change in prices in the dead of winter, even in a temperate climate like you have in Seattle,” he said. “The March-though-May-June time period, I think, is really going to tell us a lot about the market.”

Crellin said he expects year-to-year appreciation to be 5 to 7 percent in the next few months and 3 to 4 percent by the end of the year. That’s still fairly strong, but down significantly from the booming market of the past couple of years.

As far as I recall it was something like if you lost you would take a picture of your house with a whole bunch of flacid balloons hanging from the eves, and send it into Tim to post.

If I lost… I can’t remember. Something like putting “Housing only goes up up up!” on my roof and similarly posting a pic. I’m open to your suggestions, however, if you have a novel idea.

It’s in an old thread someplace, though I wouldn’t know how to find it.

It appears banks were loosening on average until late 2006, when the trend rapidly changed course.

Buddy, can you spare a loan? (PIMCO)

Liquidity crisis?

Full article

I know I tried to point that out but he only sees what he wants, so there is no point arguing with him from now on I will ignore him.

Swing and a miss!

[10800-10899] Ne 141st Pl
Kirkland, WA 98034, US

What a laugh! Here’s the actual address from the CL ad:

9625 NE 141st Pl.
Bothell, WA 98011

Huh, that’s 2 blocks from the house of a guy I camped with last summer. He actually lives east of the house in question (closer to the freeway).

I would have never guessed we were that close to 405. Never heard it. On the eastside, it all depends on what side of the hill you’re on.

Rule of thumb: BUY LOW, SELL HIGH

If you want to throw away your money, the best thing you can do is jump in late to an overheated marketplace. If an investment looks like it’s overpriced, and you have some reason to think prices may decrease, DO NOT BUY!!! Just ask the people that bought Amazon at +$100/share.

Right now prices in KC and nearby areas are at historical highs. Why anyone would invest in a market that is this historically overpriced and expect to make money in the short to medium term is beyond me.

But buying a home shouldn’t be primarily an investment. You shouldn’t plan on making money on the home you live in. Some people do, and that’s great. The people that bought in prior to the run-up in prices and sold last year hit the market perfectly. But some people lose their shirts, as we will see across the country this year.

You live in your house. Owning a home has all the advantages that shug says, and he’s right. But that’s because you should be motivated to buy a home to live in it, not make money.

I would like to mention that I absolutely would not buy on 65th. Regardless of the price. It is extremely common to see people driving at freeway speeds. Great place to be a single renter though!

About the renter ghetto comment… The only part of ballard that isn’t full of drab 65 year old houses is west of 32nd between 80th and 60th.

All I have to say is I can’t wait to see some numbers for March. Of course, no matter what comes out, there will be no end to the twisted statistics trying to show how the PNW is still special; but there’s gonna be some hurtin’ in those numbers — for the whole country. The whole country.

Depends…living in a GOOD part of ballard. Not on a busy street or in the rental ghettos S. of 65th.

http://www.seattlerentals.com/6616

Example A: Much smaller then my place (the basement is unfinished). On 80th which is a major arterial. And I highly doubt it’s updated inside. Sorry, this only reminds me why I don’t rent. Seems that no one can really find a good rental that is cheaper then buying an equivalent house.

Well, one nice thing about renting is that you don’t have to live in it forever.

But you can get evicted any time. Sorry, I’d rather have the security of deciding when I move.

Which you can’t say about a house when you’re upside down in your mortgage.

This is a pretty weak argument right now since anyone who bought in the last few years is now sitting 100-200K in Equity.

“One thing Seattle and Charlotte have in common (the two cities that did not decline) is that they both have very strong job growth.”

“Beazer Homes USA Inc. said in a statement late Tuesday that it “can not comment on or verify any investigation,” following a report in the Charlotte Observer that federal authorities have launched a criminal inquiry into the company’s business practices, including its role in arranging mortgage loans for buyers in its subdivisions. The Observer said its investigation into the home builder, published last week, found “the company’s aggressive sales tactics were producing an unusually high rate of foreclosures in many of its Charlotte-area developments.”

Here’s the link:

http://tinyurl.com/2fdetr

Nope, no worldwide equity bubble.

You will see inventory is actually above the 10-year moving average and pending sales are approaching the 10-year moving average.

I don’t buy the argument that inventory is low. These stats don’t take into acount the countless condo projects that are not listed in the mls or that are in the works.

Year Inventory Pending Sales
1993 15428 3409
1994 11624 4097
1995 14213 2925
1996 14048 3714
1997 10937 4145
1998 9255 4378
1999 10211 4348
2000 11201 4324
2001 13405 4137
2002 13743 4074
2003 16426 4973
2004 13247 5984
2005 9854 6397
2006 9601 5982
2007 13417 5559

The erosion of our standard of living is inevitable and the more efficient we become economically as individuals the better off this country will be.

Housing is falling in line with these changes but it seems to be adjusting slowly. I believe that Seattle prices have peaked, there may still be a rally left in this market, if so it will be short lived.

You have the wrong map try the google map from the page. Great now I am being sucked into shugs vortex of absurdity.

Again, usually there’s a big trade off of quality of life when renting:

1) Poor locations (busy streets)
2) Outdated houses
3) Difficult land lords
3) Bad neighborhoods
4) Unexpected rent increases
5) Unexpected evictions

etc…sure some or all of the problems can be remedied by the perfect rental. But you’ll pay top dollar for that, and still won’t earn equity or have the security of knowing you can’t be evicted.

So I’m supposed to believe that renting in Ballard means living in a bad neighborhood while buying in Ballard means living in a good neighborhood? Or did you mean to suggest that living in a nice neighborhood costs renters more but not buyers? I’m confused: which ridiculous claim were you making?

Shug, I agree that paying less than $800 in rent won’t get someone a house like you live in. On the other hand, it could get someone a perfectly comfortable Ballard apartment. Sound limiting? Well, one nice thing about renting is that you don’t have to live in it forever. Which you can’t say about a house when you’re upside down in your mortgage. Rather live in a house? Well, this one’s a bit further north, but it took me all of 30 seconds’ worth of research to find it:

http://www.seattlerentals.com/6616

Not too pricey.

Which leaves us with:

…and still won’t earn equity or have the security of knowing you can’t be evicted.

Not sounding to secure about yourself, Shug. Something making you nervous? Maybe that’s your over-dependence on real estate for your financial well-being and sense of self-worth. Don’t feel bad. It’s pretty common around here these days.

(And, no, I will not give you my address.)

Sure…what’s the wager?

9625 NE 141st Pl.

You definitely hear lots of noise from the freeway….

Take a look at the median prices of houses for the last 6 months (actually check 9 months). A generous interpretation is they have been flat. I would say teetering, and starting to slide down the hill.

I still haven’t gotten your agreement on our bet by the way – inflation adjusted YOY median price change in King County in July will be negative, remember? Pictures of flacid balloons on your Ballard Palace’s eves? Should be entertaining.

It is nowhere near 405 in terms of noise and sight, about 3 miles from 405, and great views with no freeway in sight. this is a nieghborhood of all $500k+ homes with a view on the hill. Hardly any rentals around unless you have seen it in person which I do everyday you do not know what you are talking about. The street it is on is niether busy or bad.

how did all those people get into homes? Lower mortgage requirements is a pretty good hypothesis – especially in light of recent sub-prime woes.

from the census, for king county

Show me what you can get for $800.

and so are the sold signs….they’re everywhere!