Comments on: Sound Familiar? Sales Down, Listings Up. http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2007/04/05/sound-familiar-sales-down-listings-up/ News & discussion about real estate & the housing bubble in the Seattle area. Sat, 21 Nov 2009 14:52:31 -0800 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.6 hourly 1 By: Eleua http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2007/04/05/sound-familiar-sales-down-listings-up/#comment-14558 Eleua Sat, 07 Apr 2007 05:54:06 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=751#comment-14558 The real fun starts when a builder sells a bunch of houses at $500K and then starts to sell the exact same model of house in the same neighborhood for $400K.<br/><br/>Losing $100K overnight is very tough to digest.<br/><br/>On another note...<br/><br/>I am having quite a bit of fun watching all the bulls and Wall Street dead-fish go on about housing numbers that don't include March '07. When they have to release the 2Q numbers, it will be very fun to see just how fast the real estate escalator siezed up.<br/><br/>I don't think they will be able to drink those numbers pretty.<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('14558','Eleua',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('14558','Eleua','The real fun starts when a builder sells a bunch of houses at $500K and then starts to sell the exact same model of house in the same neighborhood for $400K.<br\/><br\/>Losing $100K overnight is very tough to digest.<br\/><br\/>On another note...<br\/><br\/>I am having quite a bit of fun watching all the bulls and Wall Street dead-fish go on about housing numbers that don\'t include March \'07. When they have to release the 2Q numbers, it will be very fun to see just how fast the real estate escalator siezed up.<br\/><br\/>I don\'t think they will be able to drink those numbers pretty.',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> The real fun starts when a builder sells a bunch of houses at $500K and then starts to sell the exact same model of house in the same neighborhood for $400K.

Losing $100K overnight is very tough to digest.

On another note…

I am having quite a bit of fun watching all the bulls and Wall Street dead-fish go on about housing numbers that don’t include March ‘07. When they have to release the 2Q numbers, it will be very fun to see just how fast the real estate escalator siezed up.

I don’t think they will be able to drink those numbers pretty.

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]]> By: The Bruce http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2007/04/05/sound-familiar-sales-down-listings-up/#comment-14540 The Bruce Sat, 07 Apr 2007 01:00:51 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=751#comment-14540 So much for this 'hot season'.. 3 brand new houses for sale within 100 yards of ours, one lowered price by 50k and went FSBO, another put a 'REDUCED' sign up today. The builder (Centex - Woodridge, in Bothell) cut prices across the board as well. A builder cutting prices during the 'peak' selling season sure doesn't sound bullish to me..<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('14540','The Bruce',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('14540','The Bruce','So much for this \'hot season\'.. 3 brand new houses for sale within 100 yards of ours, one lowered price by 50k and went FSBO, another put a \'REDUCED\' sign up today. The builder (Centex - Woodridge, in Bothell) cut prices across the board as well. A builder cutting prices during the \'peak\' selling season sure doesn\'t sound bullish to me..',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> So much for this ‘hot season’.. 3 brand new houses for sale within 100 yards of ours, one lowered price by 50k and went FSBO, another put a ‘REDUCED’ sign up today. The builder (Centex – Woodridge, in Bothell) cut prices across the board as well. A builder cutting prices during the ‘peak’ selling season sure doesn’t sound bullish to me..
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]]> By: biliruben http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2007/04/05/sound-familiar-sales-down-listings-up/#comment-14483 biliruben Fri, 06 Apr 2007 18:04:55 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=751#comment-14483 What I find interesting is that King County median closed price is up, but the average closed price is down.<br/><br/>That suggests to me that the smart money, those buying at the high end, and stopped buying or aren't paying as much. That, coupled with fewer available low-end, would explain the contradictory trends.<br/><br/>The silly utes are still buying. Those that have been around the block are sitting this out.<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('14483','biliruben',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('14483','biliruben','What I find interesting is that King County median closed price is up, but the average closed price is down.<br\/><br\/>That suggests to me that the smart money, those buying at the high end, and stopped buying or aren\'t paying as much. That, coupled with fewer available low-end, would explain the contradictory trends.<br\/><br\/>The silly utes are still buying. Those that have been around the block are sitting this out.',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> What I find interesting is that King County median closed price is up, but the average closed price is down.

That suggests to me that the smart money, those buying at the high end, and stopped buying or aren’t paying as much. That, coupled with fewer available low-end, would explain the contradictory trends.

The silly utes are still buying. Those that have been around the block are sitting this out.

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]]> By: Erik http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2007/04/05/sound-familiar-sales-down-listings-up/#comment-14464 Erik Fri, 06 Apr 2007 16:18:28 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=751#comment-14464 Rubyfan -<br/><br/>The post was "flagged down by craigslist users". What did it say? Was it a foreclosure listing that a bunch of real estate shills got removed as "offensive"?<br/><br/>-E.<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('14464','Erik',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('14464','Erik','Rubyfan -<br\/><br\/>The post was \"flagged down by craigslist users\". What did it say? Was it a foreclosure listing that a bunch of real estate shills got removed as \"offensive\"?<br\/><br\/>-E.',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> Rubyfan -

The post was “flagged down by craigslist users”. What did it say? Was it a foreclosure listing that a bunch of real estate shills got removed as “offensive”?

-E.

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]]> By: CRichard http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2007/04/05/sound-familiar-sales-down-listings-up/#comment-14459 CRichard Fri, 06 Apr 2007 15:55:09 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=751#comment-14459 Two things I’m watching:

1) We had the largest MoM increase (z-score of 2.86 – A little short of a 6-sigma event) during the same month as when subprime imploded and low-end lending became much more difficult to get. While affordability finally come into play?

2) Median price for pending sales is going through the roof. Are the more expensive houses taking longer to close because the starter homes aren’t selling? I get the impressing that most people still buy their new house before selling their old one, this should keep the median rising for a little longer.

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]]> By: rubyfan http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2007/04/05/sound-familiar-sales-down-listings-up/#comment-14456 rubyfan Fri, 06 Apr 2007 06:48:43 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=751#comment-14456 Got any posts like <a HREF="http://portland.craigslist.org/mlt/rfs/306964059.html" REL="nofollow"> this</a> showing up in seattle.craigslist real estate listings?<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('14456','rubyfan',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('14456','rubyfan','Got any posts like <a HREF=\"http:\/\/portland.craigslist.org\/mlt\/rfs\/306964059.html\" REL=\"nofollow\"> this<\/a> showing up in seattle.craigslist real estate listings?',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> Got any posts like this showing up in seattle.craigslist real estate listings?
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]]> By: GetMeTheHellOutOfCA http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2007/04/05/sound-familiar-sales-down-listings-up/#comment-14454 GetMeTheHellOutOfCA Fri, 06 Apr 2007 04:15:01 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=751#comment-14454 You can trade housing futures / options on CME. Seattle is not currently tradeable but other bubble markets are.<br/><br/>http://www.cme.com/clearing/clr/list/contract_listings.html?type=hng<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('14454','GetMeTheHellOutOfCA',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('14454','GetMeTheHellOutOfCA','You can trade housing futures \/ options on CME. Seattle is not currently tradeable but other bubble markets are.<br\/><br\/>http:\/\/www.cme.com\/clearing\/clr\/list\/contract_listings.html?type=hng',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> You can trade housing futures / options on CME. Seattle is not currently tradeable but other bubble markets are.

http://www.cme.com/clearing/clr/list/contract_listings.html?type=hng

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]]> By: matthew http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2007/04/05/sound-familiar-sales-down-listings-up/#comment-14453 matthew Fri, 06 Apr 2007 03:55:02 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=751#comment-14453 Nofate,<br/><br/>Short any stocks that have any tie to the housing industry. Lenders, builders, etc.<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('14453','matthew',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('14453','matthew','Nofate,<br\/><br\/>Short any stocks that have any tie to the housing industry. Lenders, builders, etc.',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> Nofate,

Short any stocks that have any tie to the housing industry. Lenders, builders, etc.

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]]> By: NoFate http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2007/04/05/sound-familiar-sales-down-listings-up/#comment-14452 NoFate Fri, 06 Apr 2007 02:52:36 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=751#comment-14452 I am convinced like most of you that we are in an unnatural housing bubble. It might take years, but I think eventually it will end badly. So here is an open question...<br/><br/>In January of 2000, really smart people could have shorted QQQQ in a big way ...and they would have become very wealthy as everyone else watched their stock market wealth evaporate.<br/><br/>How can someone "short" the housing market?<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('14452','NoFate',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('14452','NoFate','I am convinced like most of you that we are in an unnatural housing bubble. It might take years, but I think eventually it will end badly. So here is an open question...<br\/><br\/>In January of 2000, really smart people could have shorted QQQQ in a big way ...and they would have become very wealthy as everyone else watched their stock market wealth evaporate.<br\/><br\/>How can someone \"short\" the housing market?',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> I am convinced like most of you that we are in an unnatural housing bubble. It might take years, but I think eventually it will end badly. So here is an open question…

In January of 2000, really smart people could have shorted QQQQ in a big way …and they would have become very wealthy as everyone else watched their stock market wealth evaporate.

How can someone “short” the housing market?

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]]> By: Crashcadia http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2007/04/05/sound-familiar-sales-down-listings-up/#comment-14451 Crashcadia Fri, 06 Apr 2007 02:17:14 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=751#comment-14451 I think they will need a bigger rug to sweep this under.<br/><br/>http://tinyurl.com/2zdu3z<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('14451','Crashcadia',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('14451','Crashcadia','I think they will need a bigger rug to sweep this under.<br\/><br\/>http:\/\/tinyurl.com\/2zdu3z',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> I think they will need a bigger rug to sweep this under.

http://tinyurl.com/2zdu3z

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]]> By: GetMeTheHellOutOfCA http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2007/04/05/sound-familiar-sales-down-listings-up/#comment-14450 GetMeTheHellOutOfCA Fri, 06 Apr 2007 01:48:10 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=751#comment-14450 So these are year on year changes. The recently released Case- Schiller Price Indices show Seattle prices are flat Dec/Nov and Jan/Dec with a 1 year price change of 11.1%. This would imply that while there was year on year appreciation, the inflexion point has already been reached. The Case-SChiller price indices are far more reliable than the realtor numbers. We will need to wait for next Case-SChiller release to confirm we already are on downward price slope.<br/><br/>http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/pdf/index/032707_homeprice.pdf<br/><br/><br/>Damn, and I was serioulsy considering buying a SFR in Seattle. Now I have to hold back to see what happens. I'd hate to be the moron that bought at the true peak.<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('14450','GetMeTheHellOutOfCA',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('14450','GetMeTheHellOutOfCA','So these are year on year changes. The recently released Case- Schiller Price Indices show Seattle prices are flat Dec\/Nov and Jan\/Dec with a 1 year price change of 11.1%. This would imply that while there was year on year appreciation, the inflexion point has already been reached. The Case-SChiller price indices are far more reliable than the realtor numbers. We will need to wait for next Case-SChiller release to confirm we already are on downward price slope.<br\/><br\/>http:\/\/www2.standardandpoors.com\/spf\/pdf\/index\/032707_homeprice.pdf<br\/><br\/><br\/>Damn, and I was serioulsy considering buying a SFR in Seattle. Now I have to hold back to see what happens. I\'d hate to be the moron that bought at the true peak.',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> So these are year on year changes. The recently released Case- Schiller Price Indices show Seattle prices are flat Dec/Nov and Jan/Dec with a 1 year price change of 11.1%. This would imply that while there was year on year appreciation, the inflexion point has already been reached. The Case-SChiller price indices are far more reliable than the realtor numbers. We will need to wait for next Case-SChiller release to confirm we already are on downward price slope.

http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/pdf/index/032707_homeprice.pdf

"golly", and I was serioulsy considering buying a SFR in Seattle. Now I have to hold back to see what happens. I’d hate to be the moron that bought at the true peak.

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]]> By: wreckingbull http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2007/04/05/sound-familiar-sales-down-listings-up/#comment-14442 wreckingbull Thu, 05 Apr 2007 23:49:45 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=751#comment-14442 It is still going to take a good number of months like this before we get to the 'standoff' phase, where inventory is high enough and demand is low enough for non-trivial downward price movement. The current credit situation will hasten this.<br/><br/>Don't get me wrong, it will happen. None of us will probably predict the exact inflection point, as Shuggybabe demands, but it will happen. It is going to be a slow unwinding, so sit back and enjoy the ride. I plan to.<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('14442','wreckingbull',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('14442','wreckingbull','It is still going to take a good number of months like this before we get to the \'standoff\' phase, where inventory is high enough and demand is low enough for non-trivial downward price movement. The current credit situation will hasten this.<br\/><br\/>Don\'t get me wrong, it will happen. None of us will probably predict the exact inflection point, as Shuggybabe demands, but it will happen. It is going to be a slow unwinding, so sit back and enjoy the ride. I plan to.',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> It is still going to take a good number of months like this before we get to the ’standoff’ phase, where inventory is high enough and demand is low enough for non-trivial downward price movement. The current credit situation will hasten this.

Don’t get me wrong, it will happen. None of us will probably predict the exact inflection point, as Shuggybabe demands, but it will happen. It is going to be a slow unwinding, so sit back and enjoy the ride. I plan to.

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]]> By: Tom http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2007/04/05/sound-familiar-sales-down-listings-up/#comment-14440 Tom Thu, 05 Apr 2007 23:29:55 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=751#comment-14440 I'm really disappointed to see the median price is going up. i hope next month it's going to 12% down.<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('14440','Tom',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('14440','Tom','I\'m really disappointed to see the median price is going up. i hope next month it\'s going to 12% down.',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> I’m really disappointed to see the median price is going up. i hope next month it’s going to 12% down.
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]]> By: Alan http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2007/04/05/sound-familiar-sales-down-listings-up/#comment-14438 Alan Thu, 05 Apr 2007 23:04:06 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=751#comment-14438 Condominium inventory is up 54% YOY.<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('14438','Alan',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('14438','Alan','Condominium inventory is up 54% YOY.',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> Condominium inventory is up 54% YOY.
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]]> By: Lake Hills Renter http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2007/04/05/sound-familiar-sales-down-listings-up/#comment-14437 Lake Hills Renter Thu, 05 Apr 2007 23:02:43 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=751#comment-14437 This is why I love this blog. Thanks for the data analysis, Tim!<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('14437','Lake Hills Renter',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('14437','Lake Hills Renter','This is why I love this blog. Thanks for the data analysis, Tim!',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> This is why I love this blog. Thanks for the data analysis, Tim!
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