It’s that time of the month again… time to check in with the local press to hear the same old regurgitated message about how great and healthy our housing market is.
Elizabeth Rhodes, Seattle Times:
What gives? Local home-sales market is softening, but prices keep rising
Local home sales cool off; why are prices still hot?
The housing market cool-down has arrived.
King County buyers had 52 percent more houses and condominiums to choose from last month compared with the previous May — by far the biggest year-over-year increase this decade, including during the recession of 2001-02.
Part of the reason for the increased inventory was that buyers were dragging their feet. King County’s pending sales — deals signed but not yet completed — declined 7.5 percent in May compared with a year ago.
What hasn’t dropped off was what buyers paid; prices continued their incongruous climb. The median price of a house in King County reached $469,000 in May. The median, which means half sell for more, half for less, has climbed every year since 1985.
…
Why would prices grow when basic economic logic says when supply outpaces demand, prices will fall?Glenn Crellin, director of the Center for Real Estate Research at Washington State University, suspects it’s because a softening market gives buyers more wiggle room to buy more house. When they do, that makes the median prices paid rise, he said.
…
WSU’s Crellin and the National Association of Realtors expect the Seattle area’s home prices to continue to go up this year. The national association is predicting an increase of about 5 percent this year. That modest figure is above what it expects will be the national average but well below Seattle’s recent appreciation growth, which hit 16 percent last year.Here’s more on Crellin’s explanation for why prices aren’t declining:
Sellers, still believing their homes are worth top dollar, price them at that. But buyers know the market is softening so they feel free to shop around. Sales slow and, as even more houses come on the market, inventory increases.
Finally, sellers either cut their listing price or agree to take less.
Buyers, realizing they can get more house than they initially thought, stretch their price range to buy up. That makes prices rise, Crellin explained.
Well I must say I’m rather surprised that Ms. Rhodes is finally reporting on the skyrocketing inventory and plunging sales. It’s only been going on for about a year now. However, Mr. Crellin’s explanations for the rising prices seem a bit tortured to me. Prices are rising because there’s more inventory? Huh?
I’m sure it has nothing to do with the fact that low-end buyers are having a more difficult time finding financing (thanks to the sub-prime shake-out), or the fact that in the last 12 months, the percentage of King County homes sold in less expensive South King County has dropped by three points while the percentage of homes sold in more-expensive Seattle proper has taken up the three-point slack. Nah, couldn’t be any of those things. Moving on…
Aubrey Cohen, Seattle P-I:
Seattle home sales shoot up
Seattle buyers, who have increasing selection and increasing competition, don’t seem to be discouraged by a shaky national home market, according to data released Tuesday.
Seattle home sales shot up in May by 21 percent, compared with May 2006, according to the Northwest Multiple Listing Service. That’s the largest year-to-year boost in more than two years and the third straight month that sales increased, after year-over-year declines for 10 of the previous 12 months.
The number of homes on the market, however, shot up by an even-more-impressive 60 percent from May 2006. Last month’s median home price in Seattle was $425,000 — down 1.2 percent from April but up 2.4 percent from May 2006.
“We’re remaining remarkably resilient,” said Matthew Gardner, a local land-use economist.
While the market is declining, it’s still good, he said. “We’re declining from a peak.”
Bob Melvey, assistant manager of Windermere Real Estate’s Ballard office, said the market has slowed, but it hasn’t reversed.
“I’m getting less multiple offers on listings, but everything that I’m listing is still selling at the list price or close to it,” he said. “Market times are a little bit longer.”
…
Gardner said he considers six months the threshold for an oversupply of homes on the market and doesn’t expect an oversupply in the next couple of years.“I’m getting a bit concerned about 2010, though,” he said. “It looks like an awful lot of [condo] units will come to completion then.”
I love how Mr. Cohen focuses in on Seattle proper, in order to proudly broadcast the fact that “home sales shot up.”
Devona Wells, Tacoma News Tribune:
Let the home sellers beware
Rising prices and sinking sales made for a mixed housing market in Pierce County last month as several thousand homes vied for buyers’ attention.
The median price for stand-alone houses and condominiums increased, compared to the same month a year ago, by a respectable 6.9 percent to $281,000, according to figures released Wednesday by the Northwest Multiple Listing Service. King County’s median price came in at $411,868.
Pierce County’s pending sales, however, declined 21 percent – the largest year-over-year drop so far in 2007 and the biggest in the Puget Sound area.
At the same time, the number of homes listed for sale skyrocketed – up 57 percent to 8,039 over the previous May.
Gail Jensen, a Crescent Realty agent in Spanaway who primarily works with sellers, said she’s counseling them to price smart.
“I haven’t seen a stagnant market like this in 18 years,” Jensen said.
Dick Beeson, a Multiple Listing Service director, said Wednesday that the supply of homes countywide remains at six months – any more and the market would be considered one that favors buyers. North Tacoma sits at the better end of that measure, with about 4.5 months of supply, while Gig Harbor has entered buyer’s market territory with a supply of homes that would take eight months to sell, said Beeson, a Windermere broker.
“It seems like the listings are not hard to get. What’s hard to get are well-priced properties. Sellers being realistic is one of the main problems,” he said.
Uh-oh, looks like the serious slowdown has officially arrived in Tacoma, as they bump on past that magic number of 6 months of supply. But don’t worry, I’m sure the disease won’t spread north.
Mike Benbow, Everett Herald:
Home prices continue to climb
Home sales in Snohomish County continued to slow down in May and the number of houses on the market continued to rise, according to a report Wednesday from the Northwest Multiple Listing Service.
Continuing a monthslong trend, that didn’t stop prices from rising. The median sale price last month was $353,779, a figure more than 9 percent higher than the number a year ago.
Mike chose to go with the straight-shooting style of report this month, pretty much just listing the facts, and leaving out overly optimistic quotes from realtors and “local economists.” Good for him.
Rolf Boone, The Olympian:
County home, condo sales see gains
Thurston County home and condominium sales gained some strength in May as sales dropped about 6 percent compared with a 15 percent drop in April sales, the Northwest Multiple Listing Service reported Wednesday.
…
Greene Realty Group real estate agent Blake Knoblauch said the county’s housing market still is strong, though he acknowledged that its biggest problem is that it has more than 2,000 listings.Home sellers today have to carefully consider the price, location and the condition of their homes, he said.
“Entice (buyers) with price and ‘wow’ them with value,” Knoblauch said.
Real estate agent Jackie Tosland of Abbey Realty, who closed five transactions in May, said the county’s housing market either goes up or “levels out,” but it rarely suffers like other housing markets nationally.
However, the first-time buyer continues to be shut out of the local housing market, Tosland said.
“There has been a noticeable decrease in first-time buyers and lower-end homes,” she said.
Sucks to be you, first-time buyers in Thurston County. This housing market will only ever “level out,” so says Ms. Real Estate Agent lady. It was in the paper, so it must be true.
(Elizabeth Rhodes, Seattle Times, 06.07.2007)
(Aubrey Cohen, Seattle P-I, 06.06.2007)
(Devona Wells, Tacoma News Tribune, 06.07.2007)
(Mike Benbow, Everett Herald, 06.07.2007)
(Rolf Boone, The Olympian, 06.07.2007)
Not sure I follow the logic of the Center for Real Estate Research guy. If there is more supply on the market, it makes people want to spend more to buy a house? Ignoring the fundamentals of Economics 101 is the same kind of thinking that leads to thinking like, “We lose money on every sale, but we’ll make it up on volume.”
A far more likely explanation is that lower priced properties are not selling. Tightening lending standards will hit the lower end of the buyer pool sooner. When only higher end properties are selling, median sales prices goes up–even if the comps on a given property are going down.
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May Reporting Roundup…
…
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I keep hearing the same thing that CBam just said- that median sales price is a poor indicator, and gives a narrow view of the situation. If that’s true, why is median sales price used so often in the MSM? Is there another indicator that would be more accurate, like maybe the 25th-, 50th-, and 75th-percentile that housingtracker.net uses?
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The explanation given by Mr. Crellin for the rising median was pathetic. As we all know, it has to do more with the loss of the first time buyer, and the dwindling availability of suicide loans. What is never mentioned, is that price per square foot is falling dramatically. It is a much better barometer for prices. What good is median price if $450k bought a 1300 square foot house in 2005, but will buy a 2000 square foot home today?
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Shuggy’s dredging up of old news made me think a trip down memory land from the last boom might be interesting…
THE SEATTLE AREA’S REAL ESTATE PARADOX WHILE THE MARKET IS VERY HOT, LISTINGS REMAIN LOW AND AGENTS’ RANKS GROW
Published: Monday, September 04, 1989
SEATTLE-AREA HOUSE PRICES CLIMB THROUGH THE ROOF
Published: Monday, October 02, 1989
SEATTLE LEADS U.S. IN RISING HOUSING PRICES MEDIAN COST FOR A SINGLE-FAMILY DWELLING JUMPS 23.7% IN A YEAR
Published: Wednesday, December 13, 1989
HOT MARKET FOR HOUSING COOLS A BIT
Published: Friday, April 13, 1990
LAGGING MARKET PUTS CHILL ON HOME SALES
Published: Friday, June 08, 1990
HOME PRICES SLUMP IN THE AREA 3.4 PERCENT DROP SIGNALS HALT IN TORRID INCREASES
Published: Saturday, August 25, 1990
HOT-COLD HOUSING MARKET STILL SLIDING AGENTS PREDICT UPTURN IN 3 TO 9 MONTHS
Published: Tuesday, January 01, 1991
SOME REAL ESTATE AGENTS NOW REPRESENT BUYERS
Published: Friday, March 01, 1991
THE REAL ESTATE SQUEEZE A GLUT OF HOMES ON THE MARKET PUTS LID ON PRICES
Published: Friday, July 19, 1991
FEBRUARY HOME SALES RISE 51 PERCENT IN 3-COUNTY AREA
Published: Monday, March 02, 1992
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It’s that time of the month again… time to check in with the local press to hear the same old regurgitated message about how great and healthy our housing market is.
And time to hear the same tired rebuttals from Tim, claiming that the market has been toast for two years despite record sales and price gains.
Moving on….
I’d like to hear some explanations for the following:
If the Seattle buyers are being squeezed by higher interest rates AND prices, then shouldn’t sales be declining rapidly? But sales were up 21% in Seattle and 2% in KC. How can this be happening if there are really no buyers? According to the stats, we have more buyers then last year which is indicates a bullish market.
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Shuggy’s dredging up of old news made me think a trip down memory land from the last boom might be interesting…
Hi DJ…I bet you wish you’d bought a house in 1990! What an awesome investment that would have been.
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Hi DJ…I bet you wish you’d bought a house in 1990! What an awesome investment that would have been.
As usual, you miss the point.
But in any case, Given a time machine I’d have taken the equivalent value in Microsoft shares, thank you very much.
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Facts:
2007 AREA 705 (Ballard, Greenwood, etc.) Residnetial AND Condo median sales prices:
March: $434,000, April $444,000, May $441,000
Residential only in same area 705 of Seattle:
March $499,975, April $475,000, May $477,919
——————-
Snohomish County-
Residential ONLY median prices for 2007:
March $382,500
April $375,000
May $345,000
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Touche, deejayoh, but Shug’s not likely to understand the true concept of an investment.
As for the Reporting Roundup – The Seattle Times Brier Dudley has a blurb in today’s technology column Comparing Bubbles that quotes Henry Blodget: “Housing obviously won’t experience as deep a correction as the dotcoms did, but I haven’t heard a simgle persuasive argument explaining why this downturn wont look like every previous housing downturn: i.e., will last a lot longer and drop much father than most people think…” http://tinyurl.com/2ry5ey
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Housing obviously won’t experience as deep a correction as the dotcoms did, but I haven’t heard a simgle persuasive argument explaining why this downturn wont look like every previous housing downturn: i.e., will last a lot longer and drop much father than most people think…
Your comment made me think of a comparison I saw today. Check out these two articles to compare bubbles
Housing Bellwether index in March vs. Internet, Oil bubbles
Housing Bellwetherindex June 1 with selected Liarah quotes
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Man, I hope you guys have your popcorn ready.
10yr @ 5.1%
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And time to hear the same tired rebuttals from Tim,
Dude…. get yer own blog then and stop polluting this one with your weird none-sensical propoganda….
I do commend The Tim on changing the blog format, what it has done is relegate Meshugy (aka “Ballard Bob”) stupidity to the sidelines (where it belongs). Most of his lame threads on the forums go unanswered and the “open thread” death doesn’t allow hom to antogonize everyone…
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Tee hee. “Ballard Bob”….
“Do not believe the lies of the liars! We have defeated the infidels! Inventory is low! We have encircled them, and bought all their townhomes! The infidels are committing suicide on the steps of their mortgage lenders!”
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I have a friend here at work who has the property buying fever. She is normally a rational thinker, an INTJ, in fact, and normally very good at analysis. Her boyfriend just bought a house with his sister in Maple Leaf for 0 money down and he intends to flip it, then probably buy another and flip it, etc. He has infected her with the notion that she must buy NOW, NOW, before the prices continue their eternal steep ascent. She is absolutely convinced that prices will never decline in King County.
I saw her this morning and she said she is going to move out of her cozy rented apartment on Capitol Hill because she has to buy quickly, quickly! This summer. Otherwise she will be priced out forever.
When my mouth parted to voice an objection, she gave me a little wave, like, don’t even bother, I don’t want to hear it.
She has the fever. I feel sorry for her.
If I had to present just one argument to this otherwise rational person, what would you suggest? One good indisputable FACT that will make her pause and stop her headlong rush into fiscal disaster.
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Anne,
I would direct your friend to my informational site that was designed for just this type of person: Priced Out Forever
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What about a response on the “yeah but you get tax breaks” response?
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I am so bored with Meshugy.
Actually, I’m kind of bored with the bubble blog. I came here looking for some piece of the market that I was missing that would explain why real estate here is not a bubble. I’ve reached a level of confidence that I am not missing anything that I don’t have much more interest in looking.
Not that I’m leaving. Tim posts great information and I will continue to patiently watch the market for the right time to buy.
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Actually, I’m kind of bored with the bubble blog.
Sorry you’re bored. I will try to post more incendiary comments. ;)
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Thanks for the tip to the other blog, Tim. I didn’t know you were behind that.
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The Pacific Northwest is mentioned in Ben Jones HBB today. Pretty much parallels what Tim has posted here and The Tim is actually mentioned:
http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/
.
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If you calculate the actual tax savings as compared to the standard deduction, you’ll find that in most cases you will probably pay more in property taxes than you save in income tax.
For example, on a $500,000 house (with a $400,000 loan), the tax savings in the first year (the year of maximum tax breaks) is roughly $4,600. However, property taxes (here in King County) would be roughly $5,750. And don’t forget that to get that $4,600 tax break you spent over $22,000 on interest payments.
Doesn’t look like much of a break to me.
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Clarification – The PNW is mentioned in the “The Market is Declining from Peak” section of todays (7 June 2007) Ben Jones HBB and The Tim is mentioned in the comments part of this section.
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Geographic barriers define which areas around here are more valuable. The following Redfin map is my favorite example. This is only showing houses under $400k (which is still way above what I can reasonably afford.)
Redfin Map
See May Creek Park? It acts as a geographic barrier to roads. Because it is much thinner than the lakes, the price differential is much more obvious. I’ll venture a guess that most people who can afford to buy work North of that park. Driving around that thing has got to be a pain. It makes sense that prices on one side will be lower than on the other side.
I think May Creek Park is a price dam. Eventually, supply on one side is going to begin bleeding over the other side. When that happens the bubble is going to start collapsing rapidly. That is my prediction. I don’t know when it will happen, but I’m watching that spot.
Inventory in this price range has been growing the last few months (based on informal subjective observations) to the West of this area. This is the area where I first noticed invetory density increasing. The increasing density wave just reached May Creek Park about a month ago.
Another Redfin Map
Also, I just saw someone else’s email in my saved comment boxes. I’ll be putting a fake email address there from now on.
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Also, I just saw someone else’s email in my saved comment boxes. I’ll be putting a fake email address there from now on.
Alan –
If you are registered on the site, you can just leave those fields blank. I get the same weird thing, and was using a fake email. then I left it blank and it still worked fine.
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DJO and Alan,
What are you talking about? What “saved comment box”?
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Yup synthetik,
That yield curve sure unwound fast. It’s gone exponential in the last few weeks.
The popcorn is on the stove and shaking back and forth real fast.
Still using the old Jiffy Pop here.
We are in for one heck of a show.
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Crashcadia, (that’s still the coolest name on this forum)
If the powers-that-be can’t find a buyer for US debt, and find it quick, this party is just getting started.
From the looks of Asia tonight, we are about to tap another keg.
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What?
This blog started on a very good premise. Buyers of homes were certainly being swindled on a daily basis by over priced junk. The new Real Estate agent crop was pushing crap they knew nothing about.
Now that we have seen a spike in prices and a decline is surely under way all of you guys are hammering the same tired points.
This is the day you have all been waiting for. You were right, houses are over priced. There are too many Real Estate cheer leaders. You’re right.
Now what?
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“NOW WHAT”
Well David we sit back and watch while saving cash. The inevitable has started, the end of liquidity has begun, and poor souls have been trapped by debt. If you think WA & OR will not participate in the downturn you must have skipped your economics class. PUT A TENT OVER YOUR CIRCUS!
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Have prices actually moved down in any significant fashion in Seattle? Are homes still overpriced? Do we have bull capitulation yet?
Some of the more unhinged people around here predicted 2/3 to 4/5 off the peak price. We are still not there.
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Now that we have seen a spike in prices and a decline is surely under way all of you guys are hammering the same tired points.
Perhaps you could contribute something then, or leave
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Eleua,
Up in Snoh. Co. I would say there is price pressure. For single fam. homes the median in March was $382,500, for May it was $345,000. I don’t like it, but it is a fact.
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Wow! That is a pretty big chunk off the price!
Are the builders still cranking out houses in Snohomish County?
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i’ll ask again. looking at the graphs, what was the cause/reason for the drop in inventory jan’04 without a major increase in sales? I wasn’t here then. Just interested to know why. Thanks
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“bull capitulation” – does Seattle Eric count?
I don’t expect bull capitulation till the fall (hope won’t die till then), but the worm has definitely turned. Those stats represent a new market situation, one which shug and co. denied would ever take place.
The goose is cooked, even if no one’s stuck a fork in it yet.
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Just to hazard a guess…taking the house off the market and waiting the necessary 90 days (I think that’s right) to get the “new” listing designation in the MLS for the spring selling season?
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THE COMPREHENSIVE SEATTLE REAL ESTATE NEWS RECENTLY REMINDS ME OF THAT IMMIGRATION BILL THAT JUST WENT DOWN THE TUBES
Its a cacaphony of conflicting facts mixed with crushed glass, and yet we’re all told to swallow it all down, it won’t harm you.
The Post Intelligencer says today that Seattle home sales increased 21% for May 07, vs May 06; how about May 05 [I looked for the data on the web, its simply not there, please help me find it]?
The PI also said today that King County home sales inventory piled up 52% during the May 06-07 timeframe, and if you go back a couple weeks said foreclosures went up 37% in one month in April 07.
I see, the Seattle Market is rosy as heck and yet, we’re about to enter a Depression with stagflation?
Someone else got a better description of this Frankenstein Immigration Bill Seattle area real estate news?
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S-Crow,
I think you may have looked in the wrong column.
May SFR Median in Sno was $376K in 2007 and $345K in 2006.
Home equity restored!
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OK, you want contribution?
As inventory increased the people sitting on the sidelines began making offers. The real estate agents who have been afraid of holding unsalable listings priced the homes below market value to generate multiple offers, which they received in many cases.
There is also panic selling from individuals who have bought in the past seven years. 2003 seems to me to be a popular year for home purchase that we are now seeing on the market.
Now I’m going to speculate that there are people who think that if they can sell now they will be able to buy for less in a few months. Sort of like “if I don’t sell now, I won’t be able to sell for this high of a price again.” Just like people who bought in a pnic there are people who are going to sell in a panic.
Now let’s talk about debt. I’ve sold my properties and have a personal residence that I have mortgaged to the hilt. I have no car loans but have run up a large credit card debt. My question is, and has been, why not? What can happen? What’s the risk? You guys keep talking like not using bank money is the smartest thing in the world. The truth is, it’s just debt. If I get tired of using the banks money I can pay it off, or not, as I chose. They can’t jail me and they don’t want another house.
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S-crow said:
“2007 AREA 705 (Ballard, Greenwood, etc.) Residnetial AND Condo median sales prices:
March: $434,000, April $444,000, May $441,000″
Shug,
I believe you owe me an apology! April does look like the peak! golly I’m good!
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Hmmm. Forbes magazine ran this article (http://www.forbes.com/realestate/2007/06/07/housing-trough-resilient-forbeslife-cx_mw_0608realestate.html) on June 8th. I’m sure glad the worst is behind us here in Seattle. (please read that sarcastically).
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S-Crow (or anyone)-
Can you post inventory numbers for 05/07 for the seattle areas (140, 380, 385, 390, 700, 701, 705, 710)
MLS seems to have changed their naming and I can’t see them.
Would be much appreciated!
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“david losh said,
on June 8th, 2007 at 8:54 pm
What can happen? What’s the risk? You guys keep talking like not using bank money is the smartest thing in the world. The truth is, it’s just debt. If I get tired of using the banks money I can pay it off, or not, as I chose. They can’t jail me and they don’t want another house.”
Rather insouciant attitude towards your financial obligations, David. Are you really sure under the new bankruptcy act you can skate away quite so cleanly from your debts if you decide to go into lender-ignore mode?
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We own a house in Seattle & we’re putting it on the market in 2 weeks. We’ve owned this house for 7 years and have significant equity on it. We have always planned to move, we finally decided because my husband got a job 30+ miles away. Do you think we still have a chance of selling this house at a good price? Our agent suggested $360,000 listing price… should we look forward to getting this or how much less? How much time do you think we have before we have to significantly decrease our asking price? We are preparing the house by painting, etc… so we think that it will show well. THANKS.
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“Do you think we still have a chance of selling this house at a good price?”
I think you have a good chance if you are willing to be realistic about what you are up against in the way of the ballooning inventory. There are plenty of properties on the market to choose from right now, and I keep hearing again and again that if sellers want to successfully move properties, they must be realistic about price, and ask for less than they might have received even half a year ago. In short, don’t be greedy — be willing to list your house for a little less than what you might have hoped it could generate a year ago.
Much depends on how quickly you wish to move and how much time you have to devote to the process. A well-priced (i.e., fairly priced) asset will sell much more quickly than the houses I see languishing on the market because they are overpriced.
There is a house in my neighborhood that has been for sale for about a year now, and the owner simply refuses to come down in price. It is on 14th & Spring and the seller is asking over $900K for the property. This is far and away a ludicrous sum for the house, and as long as the seller refuses to be realistic about the market and the fair value of the house, the longer the seller will have to stay put.
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Hasn’t Seattle typically run 6 months to a year behind California? LA had the same median price stories which you are seeing in Seattle last year, because the fewer qualified buyers are buying the quality homes that are on the market, while the lesser goods are sitting. That will give you an artificial high for a while, until the sitting houses start marking down and selling….or getting repo’d. I am seeing some startling things here in Burbank, 7 for sale signs on each street, half a dozen moving vans on saturday morning walks….plasma TVs and other pricey stuff offered at garage sales… Once people realize that even if the prices are staying even they are losing money holding an investment property (since inflation is rising and the dollar is falling), you will see prices start to drop. I dont care how many stories of Google moving to Fremont you have.
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