If you are taking me seriously, you have bigger problems than owning real estate at the top of a multi-generational cycle.

If this was the NY Times, you might have a point. This is a blog to discuss the Seattle RE bubble. The snarky tone to the postings is what many want to read.

It also keeps us from taking ourselves to seriously. If you want to read postings where people take themselves too seriously, I recommend RCG.

I like the ideas about a poster with a differing point of view, maybe as an occasional feature, or doing a post on why there isn’t a bubble or something. Could be interesting.

I have a flashbulb attention span, so having a meandering thread allowed me to sift through and find some red meat for unsolicited bloviations.

The OTs served as a lounge for SB regulars to loiter and have random conversations – not to mention the ritual "female dog"slapping of ‘Shug up and down the forum.

They were entertaining, educational, and spontaneous. Sometimes a random comment would fit there and nowhere else.

The site is great, but I do miss the OTs.

Also, keep up the attacks on agents and others who are biased by their business interests (including politicians). The American consumer is bombarded by spin, and most people assume it is truth. We need more unbiased writing like yours to counter balance that river of trash. I like your article about the industry’s legislative actions. It highlights the point that the moneyed interests often make their arguments with no rebuttal.

The one legitimate complaint someone could have is your writing is one-sidedly negative. So f***ing what! Are the real estate agents writing articles that admit it’s possible there is a bubble? Are they saying the market may be cooling? No, they aren’t. They are just as one sided. So, they are fair game. Again, keep it up.

This is not a criticism, but there IS something wrong with the statistics and conclusions. If there is only a 3 month supply of homes when inventory is approaching record levels, that means sales are still very brisk. Sales would have to roughly halve to get to that 6 month supply area where buyers are in control. All those buyers must be attributable to fundamentals like increased hiring and increased population. I doubt we are going to see more than a modest price correction, unless the economy tanks, causing Boeing and Microsoft to lay off thousands. But it’s going to be a fun year watching this unfold. Keep up the good work and thanks.

Great site overall.

1. Invite opposing opinions. Some of the best info I’ve walked away with is the responses to the “anti-Tim” Meshugy posts. Meshugy gets blasted, ridiculed, insulted unfairly here.

2. What is the likelyhood of actually seeing 10-20% declines? Is NOW a good time to buy?

3. Thanks for taking the time to create this blog. It is much appreciated.

I don’t think we’re rolling back prices quite yet to 1990 levels or even a market based “on fundamentals”, but clearly there are signs of weakness in many areas. Especially since interest rates went up.

I say stay the way you are. Let the commenters do the sarcasm and the posters can be more impartial.

My $.02

1] Try to use more rigorous logic in your analysis. I am very sympathetic to the arguments you are making, but they are often full of logical fallacies. For example, I find the sarcasm funny, and I think you should keep it. But don’t make the mistake of letting it substitute it for a solid logical argument. It tends to be used when you are making an assumption and want the reader to just accept it without question. Affirming the consequent, post-hoc, character attacks, and straw-man arguments are very common on this blog. I think it would be more convincing if you started to weed some of these arguments out. It is tough to do, but I think it would be worth it.

2] It would be interesting if you had someone who’s job it was to play the opposite side of the debate. Don’t rely on the user comments to do this. An opposing position has many advantages, and I think that it would help frame the discussions on the boards.

Finally, I like the blog. Keep up the good work. I find it useful as a place to find information, but the analysis is usually weaker than I would like it to be. I take it with a grain of salt.

Here is a podcast that you might find useful: Princeton Review’s LSAT Logic in Everyday Life by Andrew Brodie. You can find it on iTunes under the education and Princeton categories.

Thanks for the blog.

I found that most places that had a boom and now are experiencing a bust had the realtor’s economists and the their local press saying the same things we see the PI saying now. That parallel I find takes away the specialness of Seattle’s claims to why they are not going to suffer the same fate as other regions.

Correct, way more in-depth than an April Fool’s joke. Could be interesting, possibly laughable, and eye opening.

Bears on wall street are only accurate for small windows every couple of decades, and spend the rest of their lives in misery, the same is true in real estate.

Excellent suggestion. Let’s continue this discussion on the forums.

I think we need more posts like the ‘I got Suzanned’ piece over at HousingPanic, but with a local angle. I am personally not too worried about knowing when a house is at fair value. P/E tells me just about all I need to know.

It would be very interesting to see whether previous regional real-estate booms had greater proportions of dodgy financing. This is the one blind-spot that I see in this bubble which makes it very difficult to get a proper perspective on how much deeper our downturn will be.

And I second the suggestion for a serious post trying to disprove the bubble. That’s the best way to learn more.

You could add a category for blog posts titled “Same Old Same Old” where you just post links/quotes of articles that would draw effectively the same response from you.

I’ve thought that there was a housing bubble for at least 3 or 4 years now. I was expecting Seattle to drop within a year of moving here 2.5 years ago, and it still hasn’t happened. I enjoy the data you present and some of the interesting ways you slice and dice the data. Analysis is great. Finding new or deeper ways of reinforcing your arguments (e.g., that job growth or housing growth restrictions don’t actually lead to price rises) is very welcome. Continued “Ha! Those cheerleaders are so dumb!” is tedious.

Thanks for taking criticism and seeking to improve!

and preview/edit of postings on the site would be nice :D

This would keep all the comments in the same place as well as drive even more traffic to the forums. I don’t see a downside since people would still be able to comment.

(I’m sorry. I couldn’t resist)

I take it you mean something a bit more in depth than this.

Seriously though, that’s an interesting suggestion that would probably be a fun and enlightening exercise.

Dave0: Does this happen across multiple computers and/or multiple web browsers (such as Internet Explorer and Firefox), or just on one computer and one browser? I suspect it’s the latter, and that there’s some issue with the cache settings of said computer. Try going to Seattle Bubble, holding down the shift key, and clicking the refresh button in your browser.

Thanks to the others for your feedback. I’m taking it all in.

Come on though people… surely there are more complaints out there than this?

At least sarcasm I can understand.

I am not in the sky is falling camp but I will celebrate with them just the same. Those smug b*tches who think renters are losers and home prices go up forever will be prime meat to be pooped on.

I guess the construction criticism would be that the site, and anti-establishment view of the concept of homeownership in general, might be better served by recasting the notion of “bubble” so that it seems less reactionary and more logical, as you and posters prove daily.

This been posted in the forums a couple of times over in the forums, but I’ll post it here as well — make the central column wider in the forums. The 600 pixels or whatever is too narrow. You’re losing a lot of screen real estate (pardon the pun) with such a narrow table, and it often cuts off the end of links and graphs. This should be easy to fix in either the theme html files or CSS file. So do it already. ;)