The ever-progressive NWMLS has finished compiling June statistics. The recap sheet does not appear to be available just yet, but thanks to my source “on the inside,” I have obtained the pertinent information. I will update this post when the publicly-available recap sheet is posted. [Edit: Here it is.]
Here’s your King County SFH summary:
June 2007
Active Listings: up 46% YOY
Pending Sales: down 11% YOY
Median Closed Price: $470,000, up 8% YOY
June makes the 19th of the past 20 months to register yet another YOY decrease in pending sales. Inventory yet again shattered the all-time high YOY increase record (set just last month at 44%). As predicted in last month’s report, and discussed on the forums, June’s SFH inventory set a new post-2000 confirmed record, landing in at 9,458 according to the NWMLS. The previous post-2000 high was 9,176 in September 2002.
Median prices rose a whopping $1,000 from last month, for a 8.1% YOY increase, while months of supply bumped up a relatively large half a point to 3.50, its highest spring/summer level since 2002.
As is the custom, I have uploaded an updated copy of the Seattle Bubble Spreadsheet that contains the relevant data.
Here’s the supply/demand YOY graph:
Looks like I might have to adjust that vertical axis soon…
Here’s the chart of supply and demand raw numbers:
Here’s the graph of YOY percent change in the median sale prices of single-family homes in King County since 1994:
Update: Here are a few links to the local news write-ups.
Elizabeth Rhodes, Seattle Times: Condos hot while overall area housing market cools
Aubrey Cohen, Seattle P-I: Record number of homes for sale in June
Devona Wells, Tacoma News-Tribune: Pierce County home sales slow to a crawl
rose-colored-coolaid » Jul 5, 2007 at 12:34 pm
The median price increases are starting to come down quickly. Wasn’t it about 10% only a month ago? now it’s 8%. If this pace keeps, we’ll be in the low single digits by Halloween.
deejayoh » Jul 5, 2007 at 1:00 pm
Thanks for the post Tim!
Let’s see… 8.1% Y2Y increase. And the M2M appreciation for March/April was 8.0%. That makes the rest of the year – um, flat?
M2M should go negative by July or August, and once we get past those two big months next year…. guess what
But of course, there’s always that great apprecation in Condos – 12.1% Y2Y. Too bad they’re down M2M 3.4% this month and 1.7% last month. Negative performance 6 out of the last 12 months. Next year I predict 10 or 11 out of 12.
deejayoh » Jul 5, 2007 at 1:22 pm
Check out the non-sensical headline from E Rhodes in the Times
Condos hot while overall area housing market cools
Huh?? Condo median price was down 3.5% last month. The second month in row… Put another way, condo prices in Seattle have now peaked for the the cycle.
but wait…
Ah, I see – focus on the market with 800 condo listings (which is doing ok), not the one with 2800 (which is sucking)
that’s some top notch reporting there, for sure.
rose-colored-coolaid » Jul 5, 2007 at 2:04 pm
DJO, don’t you know that the only way out of one bubble is for a bigger bubble to absorb it. What we all (but not E Rhodes) have missed is that the massing condo bubble on or northern border will suck up any bubblets that drip off the King County bubble.
Basically, it’s like Ghost Busters. Except replace Bill Murray with The Tim.
CCG » Jul 5, 2007 at 2:07 pm
Nice catch there DJ.
Lake Hills Renter » Jul 5, 2007 at 2:23 pm
Whew, as long as months of supply stays below 6 months prices can’t come down, so we’re safe, right Meshugy?
pegasus » Jul 5, 2007 at 3:06 pm
Whoa! What ever happened to Meshugy? You don’t think……no it couldn’t be……well maybe….. nah. Ok…. you don’t think Shugs was David Lereah in disguise do you? I mean they both had the same stories and attitude and they both disappeared around the same time………..
The Tim » Jul 5, 2007 at 4:00 pm
FYI, the “condos are still hot” slant is straight out of the NWMLS press release:
Is there still anyone out there that believes Ms. Rhodes is an actual “reporter” and not just a mouthpiece of the local real estate industry?
deejayoh » Jul 5, 2007 at 4:36 pm
So we have stopped looking at Y2Y comparisons and started looking at YTD huh?
Actually, none of those numbers make sense. They don’t match the PDF and they don’t match your spreadsheet. Y2Y appreciation for KC condos was 12%. First six months is a measly 4.03% ($280/$270k).
..Find the number that looks the best and spin…
refractedthought » Jul 5, 2007 at 10:10 pm
Oh, and in yo’ face, Shug! Double-digit YOY decline in closed sales. Just like I said.
BanteringBear » Jul 6, 2007 at 1:13 am
I think it’s important to point out that while the median price is up YOY, many properties are already decreasing in value. This is why price per square foot, and same sale properties are valuable barometers, not to mention short sales and foreclosures.
david losh » Jul 6, 2007 at 8:37 am
The graphs show a spike in pricing in 2005 that made absolutely no sense. In that regard there is a bubble. You are also right that when interest rates began to go up the Real Estate Industry began saying to buy or be priced out forever. That was a lie much more than it was a manipulation of the market place. The sad part was that it was country wide brought on by the Board of Realtors.
But if you look at the graphs you see there are peaks and valleys the same as with any appreciating tangible assets such as gold. The difference between stocks and land is that there are six billion people in the world. Is that right? I know you’ll tell me. The United States has water and farmland enough to feed the entire country so people will continue to come here. The foreclosures and short sales will create that affordable housing everybody is worried about. The poor dumb bastards that bought those cheapie condos and tiki tacky town houses are footing the bill for that. So in that way you’re all right some one is getting hurt financially. There are now thousands of crappy, cheaply built housing units that were intended to be cheap housing that buyers paid Real Property prices for because they had stainless steel appliances and granite counter tops. Those housing units haven’t changed; they simply need to sell for less.
As far as the price increase, brisk sales, and multiple offers go; Real Estate agents are now convincing people to sell cheap and fast. List ‘em low and watch ‘em go is the phrase. That four hundred thousand dollar medium priced listing would have been five hundred thousand a year or two ago. Property is being dumped because, as they say, “If you don’t sell now, you’ll be stuck with that property for ever.”
I’m going to ask again, so what? What are you going to do about it? What concrete course of action is going to change this system that you all obviously embrace? You seem to be educated, hard working people who happen to be right that there is something wrong here, but what are you going to do?
deejayoh » Jul 6, 2007 at 8:43 am
Gee, I think I’ll go post a diatribe on a blog. That’ll show ‘em
refractedthought » Jul 6, 2007 at 9:09 am
What are we going to do? Absolutely nothing. Don’t just do something; sit there.
Well, and educate people so they don’t make poor decisions. That’s all. The system will correct itself.
The Tim » Jul 6, 2007 at 9:14 am
david losh said,
Actually I addressed that very question on the Priced Out Forever “Action” page.
The answer is similar to refractedthought’s comment above.
EconE » Jul 6, 2007 at 9:32 am
What am I going to do about it?
I’m going back to bed…I’ll get back to solving the housing crisis later this afternoon. Should have her all fixed by tommorrow. Tomorrow I tell ya! Just watch…by Tuesday we’ll have inventory back to record lows with multiple offers for every seller!
What are you going to do David?
newb » Jul 6, 2007 at 10:21 am
Our home has been on the market for a week now. It is located in the South Seattle area, nice house, lots of upgrades but also needs some improvement (inside paint, older kitchen and finished but UGLY basement). We’re moving mainly for work-commute and school reasons, we’ve owned this house for almost a decade. We didn’t plan to own it for this long and we think that this is the right time to sell it while we still can and then rent a house closer to our jobs. Are we too late?
We already had 4 showings but no offers yet (probably because of the 4th of July holiday?). Do you think we can still get full asking price for our home? We priced it within the range our realtor told us that it should sell for.
femto » Jul 6, 2007 at 10:32 am
I think we need a little more detail newb, how about an MLS #?
AM/PM » Jul 6, 2007 at 10:44 am
Does anyone know the numbers specific to Kirkland DT area? I’ve seen “New Price” signs all over for new homes, some old homes too. I wonder how much prices will fall in DT Kirkland area? maybe one day I can afford something there as well
Eleua » Jul 6, 2007 at 10:58 am
newb,
Not to get you all depressed, but in a soft market, you can go forever and a day before you get an offer.
I sold a house in suburban Dallas where I had 147 showings and one offer. This took 5.5 months.
That is not a typo. One hundred forty seven showings, and one offer.
Finance » Jul 6, 2007 at 1:21 pm
My mentor is an Executive at Safeco Ins and is moving back to the mid-west next month for a new job. I have been to his house (probably sold for $750k – $1MM) which sold in half an hour from when they put it in the MLS…barely got the sign put in the yard before it sold one day before the open house.
Is the market slowing, YES, but it isnt as bad and wont be as other boom towns price drops. We are currently at 3.5 months inventory, nearly half of the USA avg…
uptown » Jul 6, 2007 at 1:21 pm
newb,
Take a good hard look at the comp’s used to price your house and see how much they differ; then adjust your price accordingly.
If your place needs paint, paint it. Hire a professional stager, then have a pro take pics. Check out the pics at
http://www.urbnlivn.com/category/selling-504-the-taj to see the difference a pro makes.
deejayoh » Jul 6, 2007 at 1:39 pm
Gosh, you should get your mentor to help the other 12,000 schmucks who have their houses on the market in King County, because they’re probably not feeling as sanguine as you
Finance » Jul 6, 2007 at 1:57 pm
My mentor wanted to sell quickly yet his RE Agent told him to list it at $X…he told her that he wanted to sell quickly and told her to list it at $X – $Y to make it a quick transaction. She conviced him to list the $X orgional list price, and sold instantly. He got another offer the next day at the open house for $X, but didnt want to deal with a bidding war since he was so busy (yet did say that he could have gotten several thousand above asking).
I do believe him because he is a very modest man and lives well below his income.
Catherine » Jul 6, 2007 at 7:02 pm
Impressive trajectories on those graphs.
david losh » Jul 7, 2007 at 10:59 am
Good Morning!
Tim, the action page at priced out forever is ridiculous. It’s more blah, blah, blah, I’m so smart.
Here’s what I do. I give seminars and help people interested in Investment grade Real Estate. Investment grade is anything that may be profitable that makes sense to them. Everybody has ideas.
Wealth is land based.
Scott G » Jul 7, 2007 at 12:31 pm
Interesting forum here……so a few tidbits for thought.
Wealth is work based through income earned, not land based. There is no such thing as a magic bullet ;-)
My house or property is worth a million dollars is not a retirement plan either :-(
Gee, what was my earthquake deductable again!
Lake Hills Renter » Jul 7, 2007 at 12:53 pm
You might want to concentrate on your own website there, David. No way I’d take a seminar or pay for anything at all from someone with such an amateur website. What are you going to do?
Orion » Jul 7, 2007 at 1:34 pm
David, you need many more spinning animated gifs on your home page. How about a mailbox graphic that opens and closes for your email link? The more animation on the page the more the search engines like it. Google loves animated gifs. A playful puppy gif will send you to the top of the SERPs.
pegasus » Jul 7, 2007 at 4:19 pm
Tim you need to take David’s advice on that website of yours. Maybe you can post a lot of pictures of David that when the cursor touches his picture they make funny sounds and say stupid things like..”I’m a pretty peacock. Look at me” or “I am the smartest fool in the world”. For sounds maybe just body noises or screams?
skeletonkeyz » Jul 9, 2007 at 11:24 am
“Iām going to ask again, so what? What are you going to do about it? What concrete course of action is going to change this system that you all obviously embrace? You seem to be educated, hard working people who happen to be right that there is something wrong here, but what are you going to do?”
I am going to sit on my cash and wait for a return to sanity.
In Olympia we have already seen the beginning of the price plummet, evidenced by the number of listings which have been reduced in the past 3 months. When prices return to normal levels with historic appriciation I will buy, until then I will happily pay my 1150 in rent and pocket the diffrence. I mean come on 1150 in rent vs a 2000+ mortgage? That alone should light the burner in someones brain.
skeletonkeyz » Jul 9, 2007 at 11:34 am
“probably sold for $750k – $1MM Is the market slowing, YES, but it isnt as bad and wont be as other boom towns price drops. We are currently at 3.5 months inventory, nearly half of the USA avg”
There is no hiding from a market correction of this magnitude. The fact that he sold his house is great for him but notice the price tag. When a recession hits do mercedez sales tank? How about lear jets? The rich are rich and will continue to spend money and swap their expensive houses with each other. All the while providing real estate lackies with ammunition in the form of increasing “MEDIAN” price. Excluding the high end houses from the data would I suspect produce an even bleaker picture than is framed currently.
david losh » Jul 9, 2007 at 5:18 pm
Thank you,
You’re right, my website is for your information only. I don’t charge for talks or seminars but do keep track of people who do.
Sorry, wealth is land based and has been since before the Roman Empire.
I am looking for help and solutions to a system that I agree has become a cess pool. That’s why I follow this site. The public is being swindled daily. My web site could use a lot of work to help get good infoormation across. My problem is time. I operate several businesses that feed families. Making pretty pictures is not what I do.
tlw » Jul 9, 2007 at 8:09 pm
Anybody noticed how the article “Condos hot while overall area housing market cools” on seattletimes.com did not make it to the Real Estate section (http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/realestate/). No link there. It seems like they want to “downplay” it.
Marin Real Estate » Nov 16, 2007 at 11:18 am
Still like this in my neck of the woods as well. More focused on buyers than we have ever been.
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