I can second that with the new owner/developer of my soon to be converted apt. Building. He has the external and internal surveyors coming soon, but has expressed classic buyer’s remorse to one of the current tenants: “Why does everyone not feel some sympathy for me? I have taken a huge risk…”

Well, it was a fully LEVERAGED risk, with the rents guaranted and paid to his lender (I looked up the property filings). His real concern is that by the time things are luxurized, there won’t be many takers, and his estimated profit may in fact be half to 2/3 what he greedily envisioned.

This guy is a local developer, who has been doing this for over two decades. Another example of greed overtaking reality, and the "golly" the torpedoes mindset.

Times are a changin’…. it seemed like just yesterday…

“Those who sell the downtown projects say several factors are driving the housing boom and attracting buyers…downtown’s new restaurants, museums and other amenities have made the neighborhood more attractive to empty nesters and young couples alike.”

All right, can we all agree to put the “empty nester” myth to bed? I know REIC, it was such an attractive talking point, like a cozy fire and a good book… but it was lie.

RIP “Condo Craze”

I’ve started saving for up for therapy. ;)

I see all these multiple “high end” condos being built with prices from 500K to 1 Million. For pete’s sake, this is TACOMA!!, who in the hell is gonna spend that kind of money to live in a downtown that has LITTLE in the way of recreation and culture. For that kind of money Id buy a SFH with a beautiful view in old town or the north end.

On the other hand, check out this short term runup:
07.20.2007 15:00 10,147
07.20.2007 16:00
07.20.2007 17:00 10,174
07.20.2007 18:00 10,187
07.20.2007 19:00 10,189
07.20.2007 20:00 10,197

50 homes in only 5 hours! At that rate, there will be over 50,000 SFH on the market in KC by the end of December this year!

What was that you just said? I shouldn’t put so much weight on short term observations? Nonsense!

Looking at the log (thanks Tim!), I can’t help but notice that on 7/23, inventory dropepd by 16 between 4 and 5 AM. The next day, at the same time, it dropped by 26!

Those Realtors ™ sure are night-owls, aren’t they?

I want to tell you about my hometown
It’s a dusty old jewel in the South Puget Sound
Well the factories churn and the timbers all cut down
And life goes by slow in Tacoma

People they laugh when they hear you’re from my town
They say it’s a sour and used up all place
I defended its honor, shrugged off the put downs
You know that you’re poor, from Tacoma

Buildings are empty like ghettos or ghost-towns
It gives me a chill to think what was inside
I can’t seem to fathom the dark of my history
I invented my own in Tacoma

There was nothing to put me in love with the good life
I’m in league with the the gangs guns, and the crime
There was no hollow promise that life would reward you
There was nowhere to hide in Tacoma

People who built it they loved it like I do
There was hope in the trainyard of something inspired
Once was I on it, but it’s been painted shut
I found passion for life in Tacoma

Well I don’t make it home much, I sadly neglect you
But that’s how you like it away from the world
God bless California, make way for the Wal-Mart
I hope they don’t find you Tacoma

Tacoma Native, Neko Case (2000)

I guess by that time they had had a lot of time to practice, but the spinners I saw on my bike ride from Shoreline to Snohomish last weekend reminded me of a comment by Marques Johnson a number of years ago. After his co-analyst made a statement that one of the long litany of untalanted Sonics power forwards we went through after Kemp left was a “poor man’s Charles Barkley” Marquis said something like:

“Well maybe not a poor man’s Charles Barkley; maybe a homeless person’s Charles Barkley.”

What’s my point?

I miss Marques, and Snohomish County’s Sign spinners could learn something from those all-stars in SD!

I wonder how long it’s going to take, and how ugly the situation will have to become to get them there.

“Professional” landlords in this town routinely make me laugh with their crookedness and wishful thinking (i.e. how many landlords in Seattle continued to insist on 1999 rents in 2002? I walked away from many.) I can’t imagine what it’s going to be like when the money that stands to be lost is real, and unrecoverable.

People in this burg seem to think that it’s their divine right to get rich off of real estate.

As the bust deepened, the builders began to realize that sign spinners weren’t helping much and cut into their already shrinking profits, so there aren’t so many now. I imagine that Seattle will follow San Diego in this with the same lag time that’s shown up for other housing-related trends.

Additionally there’s this pretty big condo conversion that got finished a few months ago right near where I live. It looks like they have a lot of units although there are only 3 or 4 on the MLS at a time. Every Sunday they have balloons and signs out touting “affordable luxury” (2 bedrooms for $370k is affordable?). Anyway as of 2 days ago they started using one of those sign jiggler people. You know those people that just stand on the corner holding a sign advertising something while shaking it (”it” being the sign or themselves or both). The thing is the guy holding the sign looks like your stereotypical homeless guy. I mean, maybe if their message is, “We’re so affordable even this guy can live here,” I guess that would make sense. Otherwise, I think they might have to rethink their marketing strategy. I normally associate those sign jiggling campaigns with going out of business sales and places desperate to bring in customers.

Q: what are two things you can’t get rid of?
A: Herpes, and a condo in downtown Seattle.

The $50K condos people were grabbing up in 1979 became a financial joke by the mid to late 80s bubble; stagnating or decreasing in price, with many converted to apartment glut. New stick homes in Everett, i.e., were plummetting in price down to around $60K about that time too, 3 bdrms with 1/2 acres too.

The difference is, wages weren’t stagnating like today. Most loans were fixed rates, not this hybrid subprime arm and leg carnage we’ve seen in most of the 2000 Seattle market. Yes, there are some comparisons, but today’s Condo investment value with inventory surge, coupled with looming foreclosures like we have never seen since the Great Depression because of too loose money….makes my head spin. I do hope I’m wrong.