Just two numbers make the difference pretty clear:

The average Japanese stock at the time had a P/E of about 60, some banks as high as 100.
The land on the island of Japan at the peak in 1991 was valued at over 20 trillion, which was five times the value of all the land in the US at the time, and is probably still more than all the property in the US is worth currently.

http://tinyurl.com/35omxg

Are you just being difficult or can you truly not see the similarities?

While we are talking about two different factors that drove the market, the impact of both factors was identical. They both drove prices to unsustainable levels. How did they do this? By pressuring the buyer. An aggressive sales person may not be as intimidating as a member of organized crime, but if they get you to stretch beyond your means with creative financing, what does it matter?

You state that aggressive sales people always exist. While this is true, never before have they existed in the market conditions that were the last 5 years in this country. With lending standards thrown out the window, sales people had free reign on the market, able to sell anything to anyone, regardless of price or income level.

Obviously the similarities are not identical, but if you can’t see ANY similarities between the two, I don’t think you are looking hard enough.

Look at parts of the US that have fallen this year for an idea of the worse case here for the next year, but looking at the worst real estate collapse of all time in a country much different than ours, caused in large part by organized crime makes no sense.

Fleckenstein posted this in May 2005, give it a read: http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/P116564.asp

He sounds like Eleua.

By that I mean wink winking of the perfect circle of RE agents, appraisers, lenders, and insurance companiies, and the people that KNOW they can get away with it, for awhile….

It’s like going into a lender’s office and stating that you want a 30 year fixed. What does the average lender do these days? He tries to pimp some other product on you. They tell you how much more of a house you can buy if you go with an IO, neg AM, or some other kinky product.

Two of my co-workers both went to lenders and basically had to argue with them in order to get a 30 year fixed. My brother in law (works for countrywide) sold my other brother in law, on the idea of getting an IO loan.

Our situation will seem more and more similar to Japan as this thing starts to unravel, mark my words.

http://www.google.com/search?source=ig&hl=en&q=Tokyo+Japan+housing+bubble+yakuza

All the editors must have been at Seafair today, so this little gem slipped through the filters.

Google this:

Tokyo Japan housing bubble.

50 % on the dollar could be a low estimate.

The only Crash-Con level left is Crash-Con 1. We are already at crash-con 2. I wouldn’t expect crash-con 1 to hit until we are deep in recession, and the mainstream American (to include Garth and Meshugy) truly realizes just how bad the housing market has become.

But one can never truly predict exactly when the President for the Institute of Economic Reality is going to issue his warnings!

Alt A loans will be missed by sole proprietors and most people with credit scores under 685 can improve them with a limited amount of work.

People will always want to do things they not ready for and financial instruments like credit cards and mortgages will be designed to take people right up to the edge.

Many of the peers of the companies that have been adversely affected by subprime did better selling the same type of loans by hedging against subprime loans better.

You can get to the broker outpost through Piggington.com. Here’s the link: http://piggington.com/broker_outpost

The loan officers are writing in about all the loans that are getting eliminated. You gotta read this!

thank you very much!

-andrew (mini- S-Crow)

Allowance? Shhhhhh. I knew this was going to backfire!

No jumbo, interest only, negative am, 100%+ LTV, stated, no-income-no-assets = California housing market stops dead = coming to a neighborhood near you!

When the data comes out for home sales from this point forward – watch out below.

Cramer does know whats going on, yet he is always one step ahead of what he says on TV, as he has to consult people on The Street before anything is published…Did we all know this credit bubble was going to pop, of course, but its easier/more profitable to continue on as long as possible.

Now hit your dad up for an allowance raise.

He said, “Why would we pay $13 admission to go into some rich person’s $1.5M house to find out what we’ll never have anyway?”

He went on, “Hades, I’d only charge $3 to visit my normal family house and the tour would be here’s where my scratched coffee table is with the Cragmont Soda Blue flavor sits…”

Enjoy Matsuzaka. I have a ticket for tonight and tomorrow, but I won’t be able to make it so gave them away. ;(