Buceri –
I take it you are Argentinian? I love the place. This was my 3rd trip – the other two have taken me through BA, I just couldn’t work the ticket on miles this year. I’ve heard about the falls but never visited. Perhaps when I take that fly-fishing trip…

Truer words have never been written.

On the lighter side – as a matter of coincidence, DJO, I was snowboarding in Valle Nevado outside Santiago yesterday (Wed). I wouldn’t be imaginative or exotic enough to plan a vacation there – I was there for work and had a day to kill before my flight home. The scenery was spectacular and the weather was about the best I’ve ever snowboarded in but I have to say the snow conditions were disappointing. East coast ice and hard pack all the way. The snacks were good though and the patagonian beef is great.

And now back to financial armageddon….

Asking price in Mercer Island is $1.8M?

2000 census data shows MI with a household income of $90K. That’s 20X income! which beats 15X (Coronado, CA) as the most zany priced real estate I have ever seen.

A few months ago, I referred to this September as, “The September of Sellers’ Soiled Shorts.”

What do you think? Are we there yet? The month is young, and the week of 9/17-9/21 is going to be a barnburner in the stock market.

Anyone know any sellers that are looking for a clean pair of shorts, and a decent offer?

Imagine what you will be thinking if your house is more than you can afford, the stock market takes a huge dump, and your neighbors are trying to sell as fast as they can.

Oh, one more thing…October is coming, and with it…the pervasive, dark, gloomy, wet, cold Seattle winter. No buyers in sight.

Yikes!

Good to have a place that looks beyond the typical media, considers and interprets the data, and isn’t filled with commentary from reactionary attack dogs.

http://www.theonion.com/content/news_briefs/mortgage_market_collapse

NE is more believable, as I don’t think they don’t tell any stories of a bubble that will go on forever.

Makes me wonder about these data in context of typical yearly fluctuations in the RE market.

Angie –
I considered that seasonality might be an issue, but based on history, the impact of that should be completely the opposite of what you see in these charts

Check the history in Tim’s spreadsheet. May, June and July are three of the biggest months for median price appreciation, accounting for an average of 45% of annual appreciation between 1993 and 2007. So according to historical seasonality, the price should be going up for the last 3 months, when it has been going down. What is going to happen in the historically down months?

There’s certainly a consistent influence at work here, but seasonality isn’t the answer.

However, you do get points for the use of a $10 word ;^)

Avg % of annual gain
Mar-93 to Jul-07
Jan: -0.01%
Feb: 11.46%
Mar: 28.61%
Apr: 16.30%
May: 17.09%
Jun: 15.61%
Jul: 12.73%
Aug: -1.26%
Sep: -12.23%
Oct: 3.88%
Nov: 9.24%
Dec: -1.42%

It’s an interesting thing about steak. We’re taught here in the good ‘ole USofA that we are the gold standard when it comes to beef. (Just ask my buddy who brokers meat to Costco). But a good friend of Tim and mine grew up in Bolivia and swears that the everyday steak in Bolivia is far superior to the the best steak he’s had in the States. But what would he know, Bolivians eat rocks. Right Tim?

I guided with a guy in college up in AK that would guide in Argentina in the off-season. I don’t know if it was in Bariloche or somewhere else. I don’t think it was in Patagonia though. His pictures from there were amazing. I also worked with another guy that guided in Chile that also had an awesome operation. It seems that if you can stomach the airfare, the costs for great guided fishing are very reasonable.

I wonder about the FSBO factor. As more people begin selling that are upside-down or close to it, I would think that there will be a larger percent that are FSBO in order to defray some costs of the sale.

I notice that those graphs reflect 12 months, and half those graphs have downward slopes at the earliest points. Makes me wonder about these data in context of typical yearly fluctuations in the RE market. The smoothed (orange) curves for Bellevue, Redmond, and Federal Way are practically sinusoidal, and Kirkland is pretty close, too.

I think they call that pure greed. Let them have their house sit on the market for 200-300 days; they’ll get the point.

A relative or two still tell me real estate always goes up and I will be priced out forever. No joke. Seattle hasn’t gone down much or people haven’t felt the decline yet. But how can anyone be optimistic about real estate if they have paid attention to what happened in other parts of the country and the subprime crisis? My conclusion is a lot of otherwise smart people are just too busy to watch the news or read newspapers.

It will take -20% across the board until people start to notice something is wrong.

Sweet trip! Was this at resorts, or were you accessing the slopes via climing, sno-cat, heli? I’d love to go climb and ski in the Andes. Wouldn’t mind doing a bit a fly-fishing in those countries either but that’s a different season.

Nice trends. It’s something that I have started to notice as of late on the listings. I’m looking forward to the Times’ explanations in the next few months.

Sounds like fun. Unfortunately, my exotic travels this year are going to be limited to visiting Moscow, Idaho. :(
I scored a cool Idaho Vandals baseball cap though. (I know how pathetic I sound so no need to point it out.)

Highly recommended if you are a ski or snowboarding fanatic

I’ve advertised Seattle Bubble myself all over the www, the mathematical evidence you folks gather is outstanding and makes the Seattle Times real estate section look like the National Enquirer in comparison.

I’d add to your great chart references, that the hidden costs of getting a typical Seattle used house ready for selling can be cost prohibitive [perhaps that's why a lot of today's sellers try to spike prices so high, they have to or lose money] and then selling it for the price you list to a qualified buyer is the real pink pony, especially with all the deluge of unsold homes piling up with mass Seattle Baby Boomers anxious to sell down ASAP and retire.

You may want to find the data on pre-selling costs for old Seattle homes; get the costs associated with roof replacemnents, rotted floors, insect/rodent destruction and rent tennant damages. Even a smart sample with seller feedbacks may be quite interesting.

The Truth shall set us free. Thanks Tim!

When are you gonna have your own T.V. show Tim?

Purely anecdotal – but in my ‘hood in Central Kitsap, the “For Sale” signs have popped up like I have never seen before. It seems to have accelerated about when news of tightened lending standards hit the media. I am not seeing any “Sold” signs either.

I’ve actually taken a look around what’s on the block for homes in mythical Ballard and have noticed tons more inventory with prices moderating if not stabilized… some even going down if they sit too long.

Asking price, is definitely another dynamic that can’t be underestimated. It seems the realism of the housing market is finally starting to sink in around here.

Don’t trouble your simple selves with changes.

Changes? We don’t need no stinkin’ changes.