The exact same model, with better lot and location, is asking for only $529K!

No bubble here in Seattle anymore. It’s burst already.

So much Microsoft!

it wasn’t their fault they took a HELOC, the LO promised them they could sell in a year…

Stop propagating lies… there is no bubble… (sarcasm)…

this blog has been around for a while now and at the eve of the housing crash, it’s nice to see who’s coming to the party… folks drunk with kool-aide that are sobering up and blaming the non-drinkers for making them look dumb…

the bubble did not start in seattle… everybody knows we’re way behind… so I don’t see how we’re propagating anything…

sorry to feed the trolls but I find it amusing to watch the drunks sober up…

by spring it will be a painful hangover…

disclaimer – I’m an owner and my home already lost 30K based on comps from when I bought it last year… (I’m not selling either so it’s all paper losses… but I too am a bitter buyer, less so than some)

you go Johnny BS.

Boeing!

Microsoft!

Seattle has jobs. Nowhere else in the country has jobs. Seattle has mountains and lakes. Nowhere else in the country has mountains and lakes. Seattle has Starbucks. Nowhere else in the rest of the country has Starbucks.

BTW, did you know that half the population has an IQ of less than 100? Amazing… ;)

This must be one of the most idiotic statements I have seen. Yes johnnybigspenda, imagine people trying to get an advantage in a MARKET, I imagine that you try to buy stocks high and sell them low — right? Of course not, of course people here are looking at the RE market — isn’t that obvious by the topic — people here seem to want to EDUCATE themselves — imagine that, must sound crazy to you.

But if you think this small number of people can as you say — (possibly even trying to propegate the bubble theory) — then you are at the very low end of the I.Q. scale. The “bubble theory” isn’t something invented on this blog — LOOK around it isn’t a theory — it is reality.

Or they will collectively vote us into socialism. The democratic party should take heed…there is an amazing opportunity coming to lasso in the millions of impoverished old by pandering to their “needs”…needs in this case being a euphemism for hand-out

Don’t feed the trolls, kids.

If you had the money and interest in buying, you would have bought when fixed interest rates were rock bottom. The few people who post on this blog and like to time the market, are such a small percentage of the buying public that we don’t count as pent up demand.
As has been said many times: entry level buyers are driven by affordability, which then sets the base market price for all other up market purchases (ie, you own a house and want to move up, the price you can sell your house for sets the limit on what you can pay).

A new factor that will put downward pressure on prices is the greying of the baby boomers, who will likely want to downsize in the coming years. Many have owned their houses for years and will be very willing to sell for less, as they will be purchasing for less and still be making a handsome profit.

Note, this is in an area with significantly higher median incomes than Seattle.

Mike2 – just to clarify, you’re in DC area, right?

Well, I’ve been looking and found SFH’s close to work that would cost about 2-3X gross income. Problem is, these properties and many, many (I mean ALOT) of other homes in the area have plummeted in value already. We’re talking 2 years of appreciation GONE. As much as the prices have already fallen, there are so many homes on the market that aren’t selling even at these reduced prices. And to top it off, even with 2 years of apprecition gone, prices are still way above 2002 levels. (Though I am seeing some of the REO’s and short sales dipping to 2003 levels) Note, this is in an area with significantly higher median incomes than Seattle.

It’s a bit outdated now, as the readership has more than doubled since this was taken, but you might be interested in checking out the poll from August last year.

There really is no reason to buy right now if you’re an educated observer. However, most people don’t fall into that category. They hear about “subprime” and watch the markets bounce up and down, but then their realtor tells them “Seattle is fine. Boeing. Microsoft”. Also, they’ll trust the local media over those crazy types on Wall Street any day.

IMO, the only thing that’s putting a *serious* dent on demand right now is the significantly curtailed ability to borrow money at silly terms. The vast majority just don’t have more than 10% down, and couldn’t afford the house unless they had some kind of “creative” financing. The *desire* to buy is no longer equivalent to the *ability* to buy.

Without the credit crunch I think we would have continued our slow decline in sales, and this would have translated into a slow decline in prices. The credit crunch is likely going to accelerate this process significantly.

Also, for a recession to be official takes 6 to 9 months of negative growth. Have we had even one yet?

Also, now that people are facing a higher interest rate because of tighter financing rules, they can afford a less expensive house. In growing areas, builders can respond by building less expensive houses. That would drive down the average price of a houses sold without necessarily affecting the price of existing houses. Again, once the market stabilizes, and buyers who can qualify for existing unsold new house jump back in, that inventory could quickly clear out.

One other thing I’ve been thinking about is the 18 month lag of prices in Seattle vs. SoCal. There’s probably also a 18 month delay in SoCal following the Seattle market, but you just can’t see it because this market is so much smaller there’s not enough people moving out to have an effect down there.

I think you are right on with your comment about the Sellers/RE agents denial. We put an offer out for a house recently, at a price that was equal to late 2005/early 2006 prices in that area. The sellers agent had lengthy emails with us about how this was not the market etc. etc. and in the end we just walked away.

Sawyer, a file clerk at Group Health, refinanced into an adjustable-rate mortgage in December, after hearing a radio ad promising low payments and no closing or appraisal costs.

“Now I know it was too good to be true,” she said last week.

Her new payment was lower than her old one, but higher than expected, and she didn’t realize it added $1,100 a month to her principal because it was less than the interest charge.

To get financial advice on a huge transaction and leave the office after signing 25 + documents having no idea where the payment is going is just mind blowing to me.

She heard it on the radio, I wonder if it sounded like the ad on family guy :)

Hi, I’m Darth Harrington of Darth Harrington’s Intergalactic Proton Powered Electrical Tentacled Advertising Droids Emporium & Moonbase! Due to a garbled subspace transmission, I am currently overstocked on all Intergalactic Proton Powered Electrical Tentacled Advertising Droids, and I am passing the savings onto YOU!!!!!

So, when we say that Seattle YOY is down more than 40% in sales, which “Seattle” are we referring to?

U.S.Housing Prices Since 1987

Mean Reversion

Charlie Goes To Candy Mountain

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q5im0Ssyyus

Do you think it’s unlikely that KC SFH follows the Seattle metro data of a 47% decline or do you think the last days of Sept 07 will have less of a difference than the first 24 days?

That last number ain’t lookin so hot:

Like I said though, I don’t know where they get this info from, and it seems like there’s a high likelihood that it’s an incomplete picture.

P.S. (I know a few of you have said that you tried to post a pic in the comments and it wouldn’t let you. I don’t know what the problem is, as it seems to work fine for me…)

December 2001: 1,220
September 2006: 2,271

To be lower than 1,220, next month would have to see no more than 1,219 sales, which would be a drop of approximately 46% YOY. Possible, but I’m still thinking that it’s pretty unlikely at this point.

maybe we’ll see negative YOY appreciation (according to C-S) before the new year.

Some housing bubble news from Wall Street and Washington. USA Today, “The end of the real estate recession seems nowhere in sight, in light of a slew of bleak news Tuesday of falling sales and prices, a severe decline in construction and deep losses and layoffs at one of the nation’s largest builders. The NAR says it expects more dismal figures for September as the housing market reels from the crisis in the mortgage industry.”

“But the September figures might be much worse. Re/Max International, which analyzed existing-home sales in five major cities for USA TODAY, says September totals so far are down sharply from last year. In Baltimore, Tucson and Seattle, for example, sales in the first three weeks this month are off more than 40%.”