Over at the Bubble Markets Inventory Tracking blog, they’ve got an ongoing series titled “If Only I Waited,” where they highlight purchases in which a home is sold (or for sale) at a significant discount to recent sales in the same neighborhood.
For the first time, the Seattle area has been featured, with a pair of Everett houses taking the spotlight in Friday’s post. Go check it out!
Thanks to the person that pointed this out in the comments.
Update: The Seattle are is on a roll, with Sunday’s edition of “If Only I Waited…” coming from the other end of town down in Kent. Go us!
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27 responses so far ↓
1
MicrosoftBuyer
// Sep 29, 2007 at 5:58 pm
Folks, check out this one -
http://expo.live.com/ViewListing.aspx?lId=6084919
$110K price drop!!!!!
Oh, wait, it’s not exactly in Seattle. Seattle is still so special!
2
MicrosoftBuyer
// Sep 29, 2007 at 6:14 pm
I know some co-workers (Microsoft employees) bought houses in Issaque early 2007. They bought ~2000SQFT houses for high 500K ~low 600K.
The exact same model, in the same community, with better lot and location, is asking for only $529K now!
What if I have waited, for only 6 months !
3
just_checking
// Sep 29, 2007 at 6:48 pm
Don’t worry, Everything will be fine. We have a plan.
Didn’t you guys hear Ardell’s plea ? “Don’t let Seattle down”
http://www.raincityguide.com/2007/09/29/how-are-condohome-sales-being-financed/
4
Bitterrenter
// Sep 29, 2007 at 7:11 pm
Well, it’s good to see the crash has skipped over Portland and hit Seattle. Here in Portland we always KNEW we were special.
The market will never drop in Portland. Everyone wants to move here.
You hear that a lot.
5
Charles Wilson
// Sep 29, 2007 at 8:25 pm
I live in the Magnolia neighborhood of Seattle. A real estate agent who does a lot of business periodically sends out a leaflet showing listings and sales, with graphs for about three years.
The last mailing was a shocker. The sales activity has been constant over the past three years, but listings have been trending up for quite a while. In July, listings shot through the roof. They’re at least double the usual level now.
I own my place free and clear and have for five years, but I keep my finger to the wind just for the hell of it. I also track rents, because some time back I rented out my place so I’m curious on that front too.
In 1996 I bought my place for $260K, and in ‘98-’03 I rented it out for $1,800-$1,900 a month. I had to take a haircut to $1,600 just after 9/11, when one tenant moved out and the whole economy (including rentals) was in a free fall. It soon recovered back to where it was.
Since then, rentals of comparable places have come up a bit. I think I could get maybe $2,200 or $2,300 now. But selling prices? Based on sales up until about Memorial Day, my place is “worth” $800K or so. Today, I don’t think it would go for that. I’ve seen some “reasonably priced” (compared to earlier-’07 sales) houses sitting there for quite a while.
If you use the 160x monthly rent rule of thumb as a rational price, my place is worth $360K and not $800K. I don’t know if prices will fall back that far (if they do, it’s no skin off my nose, but I think the spinoff effects would be nasty even for the prudent), but my gut says Seattle topped out about six months ago.
By the way, if you click on my name I have a blog where I talk about Federal Reserve policy.
6
anamik
// Sep 29, 2007 at 8:38 pm
Wait, I thought Ardell does’nt give a RA about banks.
7
SeattleHotty
// Sep 30, 2007 at 12:25 am
Desperation may be setting in, we’re giving away cars now. I just saw this in a listing at one of the nicest new buildings downtown, “home comes with 2 parking spaces along with a 2006 CLS 550 AMG Silver on Black Mercedes.” MLS is 27177504, here’s a link to Windermere: http://tinyurl.com/33oewl.
8
ocrenter
// Sep 30, 2007 at 4:41 am
there are 32 units currently for sale in that building. out of 250 total. basically 13% either relisted or still on sale by the builder.
9
ocrenter
// Sep 30, 2007 at 6:02 am
btw, new “If Only I Waited… in Kent, Washington” has just been posted.
enjoy!
10
MicrosoftBuyer
// Sep 30, 2007 at 10:34 am
Check out MLS#27160466
It’s in the heart of Microsoft! Redmond.
Huge cut, $60k! Must Sell!
Microsoftees, hurry up! Buy it or get priced out forever!
(I guess the new home owners that bought in the past 6 months in this community must hate this seller to death.)
11
Charles Wilson
// Sep 30, 2007 at 10:43 am
Hmm, SeattleHotty, at $801/sq. ft. (including $50K for the salvage value of the used Mercedes), I’d say the owner of the condo with the wrong view is going to be a whole lot more desperate before it’s all over.
12
magnolia44
// Sep 30, 2007 at 11:45 am
regarding the magnolia flyer..hmm… i have not seen that in the mail lately. It used to come out with 25+ closing or so a month, just a list of homes listed and sold in Magnolia. Homes are sitting here, and there are some stubborn sellers. The well priced ones are still going but those are few and far between. I have seen some of the latest closings come in below asking as well.
13
AndyMiami
// Sep 30, 2007 at 12:11 pm
I think we will see more and more price reductions. On Mercer Island, I saw an innovative way of saying reduction - “NEW PRICE”..very funny. Also, a $4 million house that has not sold is renting for $5K/mo., includes landscaping and house cleaning twice per month…
14
Monopoly$
// Sep 30, 2007 at 2:25 pm
So I personally know the RA they quoted as saying; “Prices are up about 8.11% from this time last year, mostly because there are more buyers then sellers.” Let’s just put it this way, “there are more buyers then sellers” has been his standard line regardless of trends in location, prices, sales, inventory, pendings, etc. In my experience, his “assessment” of any local RE market that he represents would make David Learah blush.
His comments are false and irresponsible. If I were a RE agent, I would be afraid that his comments would give my industry a “bad”, that is “worse”, name.
Buyers Beware.
15
Seattle Renter
// Sep 30, 2007 at 3:13 pm
According to an analysis conducted by Moody’s Economy.com, declines will exceed 10 percent in 86 of the 379 largest housing markets. And 290 of the cities will experience price drops of 1 percent or more.
The article suggests that the seattle market will only loose 3% by next year this time.
Here is a link for the full article.
http://money.cnn.com/2007/09/19/real_estate/steep_home_price_drops_coming/index.htm?postversion=2007091915
16
Charles Wilson
// Sep 30, 2007 at 5:06 pm
Seattle, Prince Prospero & Jim Cramer. Have a look.
http://tinyurl.com/2vgjbz
17
JohnnyBigSpenda
// Sep 30, 2007 at 5:08 pm
Monopoly,
Do you think it would be true if he said, ” there are more buyers than ‘must sellers’ (ie. folks that HAVE TO move for whatever reason?)
The other sellers could be classified as discretionary sellers. EVERYONE is a discretionary seller for the right price.
18
John
// Sep 30, 2007 at 5:26 pm
People are going to buy the condo that is $400k overpriced because it comes with a $70k Mercedes. Math is hard.
19
just_checking
// Sep 30, 2007 at 8:51 pm
Reg. “Check out MLS#27160466″
Looks like some Microsoftie did. It is now STI.
20
EconE
// Sep 30, 2007 at 8:54 pm
What’s funny about that condo is that it was reduced a few months ago from 1.1M to 999k. Now they raise the price back up 100k and toss in one of the fugliest MBZ’s ever produced.
Brilliant!
21
Monopoly$
// Sep 30, 2007 at 9:55 pm
JohnnyBigSpenda,
The RA didn’t say “must sellers”. He said “sellers”. I don’t know maybe he meant Peter Sellers, or wine cellars or granite countertops.
But seriously, the median price is still increasing due to the mix of sold homes - this has been substantiated by data on this blog. I haven’t seen data anywhere that supports “more buyers than sellers” or “more must sellers than buyers”.
22
Cringe
// Oct 1, 2007 at 9:37 am
Looks like a side-effect of the sub-prime meltdown mess mixed with bad timing. Flipping houses is like day-trading stocks, timing is a much more crucial element. Now is a bad time to sell in general - loans are hard to come by even for folks with good credit since now all the banks are over-reacting to the sub-prime fallout that they created.
Is cherry-picking a few examples like this a good basis on which to base you preceptions about the market in general? I don’t think so, but to each their own I guess.
23
softwarengineer
// Oct 1, 2007 at 12:08 pm
HERE’S A SEATTLE HOME DEAL LAST JUNE
Its got worse since then….
Seattle home prices up 9% last Summer….lol
Try, down 8%. See the proof:
http://www.realestatejournal.com/buysell/tactics/20070618-hodges.html?mod=RSS_Real_Estate_Journal&rejrss=frontpage
24
ocrenter
// Oct 1, 2007 at 12:35 pm
Is cherry-picking a few examples like this a good basis on which to base you preceptions about the market in general? I don’t think so, but to each their own I guess.
if you only have these “cherry picked” examples, then no. But numbers don’t speak to everybody, real life examples do. that’s why at BMIT both the numbers are used and the examples are posted. And this is not the first time I’m criticized on the examples I use as “cherry picking.” But when you can cherry pick an example of equity loss every single day, is it really still cherry picking?
25
Cringe
// Oct 1, 2007 at 2:35 pm
“But when you can cherry pick an example of equity loss every single day, is it really still cherry picking?”
Housing prices change constantly in both directions. Some homes will sell for more than asked, others for less. This has been true since there were houses in Seattle. What makes right now more special than the rest of the time?
People looking to make a quick buck in housing (and day trading stocks as a parallel example) are at increased risk to lose money. Buy and hold and you increase your odds of a positive return greatly.
26
EconE
// Oct 1, 2007 at 3:47 pm
sold in august for 560k
http://www.zillow.com/HomeDetails.htm?zprop=49040246
House 2 doors down from above house now on the market for 535k
http://www.zillow.com/HomeDetails.htm?zprop=49040244
my “informant” told me that the house that is currently for sale is “much nicer inside” than the one that recently sold fwiw.
27
notabull
// Oct 1, 2007 at 4:17 pm
“Now is a bad time to sell in general - loans are hard to come by even for folks with good credit since now all the banks are over-reacting to the sub-prime fallout that they created.”
Folks with good credit, a down payment, and verified income (W2s, tax returns) have no problem in getting a loan right now. Absolutely no problem. Get yourself a conforming, non-jumbo, boring old fashioned fixed rate and you’ll be sitting pretty on a 6.5% 30 year loan.
We are returning to pre-bubble, sensible, underwriting standards and doing so means that people can no longer “afford” the houses, that they couldn’t actually afford in the first place.
Down payment? Shudder.
Verified income? Shock!
Cash reserves? Horror!
Having a good FICO score just says that you’re likely to pay your bills on time. Verifying income and staying within appropriate debt to income levels is what affordability is really about.
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