I am commited to staying positive and fair! But what is fair anymore??? Urggg.

PS.I agree, should not post names and addresses of people on blogs without permisson. Maybe names have been changed.

A recent article stated that three economists conducted a study that concluded using a realtor vs. for sale by owner (fsbo) did not increase the sales price of a house. If that is true, then I would guess in a slowing housing market people would increasingly sell their house by fsbo (since the owners would try to save the 6% commission).

Have you guys seen any research on whether fsbo listings increase or decrease during a housing slow down? If fsbo listings increase/decrease as a percent of mls listings, then the mls listings would either be understated or overstated.

Thanks.

The people who think the economy is not in a risky state better start understanding it was people doing this kind of stuff that kept things going. It was not wage growth it was people using their houses as ATMs. Yikes!!!

Notice Matthew Gardner in the PI is quoted as “a Seattle land-use economist who works with developers.” Is that the first time?

Seems like a very smart guy, but I’m happy to see his professional role identified correctly in one of the two newspapers.

I know exactly what you mean. I bought a home in a non-bubble market and have spent several weeks removing wallpaper from every room in the house. Thankfully, plaster walls can take a steamer so we made short work of it.

Of course, homes built in the 20’s and 30’s where I now live are well under $200K for ones in livable condition with no major issues. Seattle may be nice, but it’s not THAT nice, regardless of what the shills and agents may try to tell you.

Much of the house has a funky wallpaper where they took regular wallpaper, ripped it into pieces, then glued it to the walls. I didn’t like it at all. The kitchen is also a little dated.

However, I would rather buy a home with old, dated stuff that I can replace with what I choose rather than pay a huge markup on what someone else thinks will raise the home value.

It is a very nice house. I’d estimate its value around $420k in a normal market.

Anyone take a look at Gary and Debbie Metter’s home in Bothell from Liz’s article?

Their agent seriously wonders why the home hasn’t sold yet?

They should call that place “wall paper world”. ugh. Looks like my grandma just moved out.

Gee, I AM old. $630K and the third bath is only plumbed?
And, are those chairs in the front yard the ‘courtyard patio’?

No bubble here, please keep on walikng…..

Nobody said they are experts here, nor is it required. How did Bob Dylan say it, “You don’t need to be a weather man to know which way the wind blows?”

Seems experts are often used to confuse things anyways.

Their agent seriously wonders why the home hasn’t sold yet?

http://tinyurl.com/2k38ma

I can think of a thousand and one reasons why it is STILL overpriced at $629,950.

How I wish KC still allowed people to review DOT’s on the Recorder’s website because I would LOVE to see how much their current mortgages are.

They should try to get $500K for it and RUN!

I am currently a renter in Kenmore. There are four new single family housing developments on my street, plus several new in-fill homes. The signs for the one of the tracks have been advertising all summer that they are “Value Priced in the $600’s”. Well, I just noticed yesterday that they are now “Value Priced in the $500’s”. In addition, all summer very little work was being done at any of the developments and this was during the best weather of the year. Then in September, as the bad weather set in, the pace of construction took off like a rocket. Even though there may be other reasons, it seems like more than just a coincidence that this happened right after the credit and lending meltdown in August. Are developers starting to panic here now too?

The OFHEO data also shows that we’ve been through this before with much larger appreciation:
http://seattlebubble.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=703&highlight=

Yes that’s very very far from the truth. Don’t get sucked in people. This is definitely NOT a good time to be a buyer. The market psychology is only in the beginning phase of its change.

Expect to see a few more for a while at least. Here’s how it will play out.

1) Real estate worker has no job, stumbles on blog, is angry ‘we are ruining his/her job’, and becomes new troll.

2) Said troll runs out of money, has to troll at public library : troll rates decrease.

3) Trolls lose homes to foreclosure and are too busy to troll : trolls gone.

The Absorption Rate is the monthly sales divided by the inventory level not the other way around as was typed. Absorption rate is the reciprocal of months of inventory. Sacramento currently is at a 9% monthly absorption rate or about 11 months of inventory. Seattle was at a 30% absorption in June 07.

This blog is excellent.

I am down south in Sacramento (close to the epicenter of the house market collapse). I have been working on models to predict house prices locally and downloaded your Seattle data to cross check the modeling I have done. Today I came back and dug through the past postings and would like to reopen the very exciting July 8, 2007 post called Mythical Equity Locust from deejayoh. It is a great post.

What I have to add is that the strongest price correlation to inventory is seen by using the monthly absorption rate. I use the OFHEO price data which is a Case-Shiller method. Absorption is the inventory level divided by the monthly sales.

In Seattle the correlation is 83% (R Squared = .833) with a 1% change in absorption resulting in a .44% change in OFHEO house price.

In Sacramento the correlation OFHEO to absorption rate is 86% with a 1% change in absorption resulting in a .42% change in OFHEO price.

In both cases the data indicates a 9 month delay between absorption rate and the price change. Monthly absorption rate is the reciprocal of months of inventory.

The OFHEO data shows a clear price bubble in Sacramento that peaked the first quarter of 2005. Seatlle bubble is not as large as Sacramento and is delayed by a year. Both data sets imply the issue is simply inventory levels and a speculative market collapsing. I suspect what is migrating is money and an attitude in addition to the people.

Is this interesting to you? Or can you point me to any other analysis? I am trying to find the best predictors of the future market. Absorption predicts price. What are the leading indicators for absorption?

We’ll see when http://seattlemetrorealestate.blogspot.com/ shuts down.

The header of that blog:
“SEATTLEBUBBLE?
THIS IS A FORUM FOR POSTING ACTUAL FACTS ABOUT THE SEATTLE AREA REAL ESTATE MARKET. IT IS DESIGNED TO COUNTERBALANCE THE HYSTERIA AND HYPE FOUND ON SEATTLEBUBBLE.BLOGSPOT.COM WITH ACTUAL FACTS”

Some prior posts on that blog:

“Seattle Bubble Believers frustrated yet again”
“December was another bust for Seattle bubble-belivers (sic)”

hmm, maybe just the opposite for a while as some people now forced to “face the music” will be venting their frustrations instead of owning up to their mistake.

As for price appreciation over the past year, Gorton said 4 percent is nothing to sneeze at. “I’m fine with 4 percent,” he said. “I hope to see single digits right now. It’s a good time to be a buyer right now.”

In a couple months he’ll be saying “I’d have been fine with 4%, if it could have stayed there”