Times & P-I On Case-Shiller

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Posted by The Tim on October 31st, 2007 at 10:45 AM · 9 Comments

Here’s the local press’ take on yesterday’s Case-Shiller data. For the most part, the reports come across as suprisingly even-handed. The biggest exception to that was the P-I’s original headline for Mr. Cohen’s piece: Seattle-area home-price appreciation leads nation again. It has since been changed to the less misleading: Mixed news on home prices.

Home-price appreciation in the Seattle area led the nation for the 12th month in a row in August, but indications were not entirely positive, according to a national index report released Tuesday.

Prices in the Seattle area were up 5.7 percent from August 2006, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices. That put the area just ahead of Charlotte, N.C., which had a 5.6 percent jump, making it one of just five areas where values did not decline.

But the Seattle area’s annual increase was the lowest in four years and August was the 18th consecutive month of declining annual appreciation. Also, prices decreased nearly one-tenth of a percent from July — the first month-to-month drop since January of this year and only the second since January 2003. The index defines the Seattle area as King, Pierce and Snohomish counties.

Aubrey also goes on to quote the same portion of the press release that I included in yesterday’s post where Robert Shiller says “There is really no positive news in today’s report.”

The Times piece was much shorter, and slightly more positive:

Seattle’s home prices have begun to decline, although on an annual basis they’re still outperforming major metropolitan areas, according to the monthly S&P/Case-Shiller home price indexes released today.

I wasn’t following the real estate market back in 2002-2003, but I wonder if the local press at that time put such a strong emphasis on Seattle home prices underperforming compared to most every other major metropolitan area? I have my doubts.

(Aubrey Cohen, Seattle P-I, 10.30.2007)
(“business staff,” Seattle Times, 10.30.2007)

Categories: Uncategorized
Tags: Case-Shiller, Cohen, Seattle_PI, Seattle_Times

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9 responses so far ↓

1 deejayoh // Oct 31, 2007 at 12:39 pm

I wasn’t following the real estate market back in 2002-2003, but I wonder if the local press at that time put such a strong emphasis on Seattle home prices underperforming compared to most every other major metropolitan area? I have my doubts.

Interesting observation. Through the magic of the internets, we can get a pulse on this… Read this article

Median home prices were up last month in the Seattle area — prices rose 4.9 percent in King County and 6.1 percent in Snohomish County — but buyers had too many choices to pay too much. But sellers who price their homes too high are forced to come down because prices are not as high as they were two years ago.

“Sellers are now selling their homes based on today’s market, not the market of two years ago,” said Edward Krigsman, an associate broker with John L. Scott Real Estate in Belltown.

The number of home sales that closed last month was down 5.3 percent in King County, compared with a year earlier. In Snohomish County, closed sales were off 12.1 percent.

More homes went on the market in August than in the same period last year. In King County, there were 11,551 listings, compared with 10,656 a year ago. Snohomish County’s inventory also rose, to 4,860 from 4,319 listings a year ago. The number of homes on the market in Pierce County fell 3.6 percent.

“There’s a ton of homes coming on the market now,” said Jill Jacobi Wood, co-owner and president of Windermere Real Estate. “Everyone’s back from vacation. Kids are in school. And people who were told to wait by their agents are putting their houses on the market.”

With more homes on the market, buyers can be more selective.

“Every little thing now has to be perfect for a house to sell,” said George Mead, owner of Mead & Mikell, a luxury-home builder in Seattle. “All those little things (wrong with a house) loom large in a down market.”

Compare that to today: Inventory is maybe 30% higher, but the stories are much more positive than this one.
2 softwarengineer // Oct 31, 2007 at 3:16 pm

HOME SALES RATE DOWN AT LEAST 33% IN SEATTLE AREA FROM A YEAR AGO

My proof, comes from a real estate website, http://www.seattleprohomes.com. To quote from its webpage in part:

“….For Wallingford, Green Lake, Phinney and Fremont, single- family home Pending sales for AUG 07 are down by 33% compared to AUG 06. Median Sale Prices are up 9.8% over the same time last year. Call or email me for more detailed analysis….”

OK, the short-term anomalous price is driven by the 70% left of buyer with smaller IQs? The price increase means nothing, the sellers put 10%+ remodeling costs into the old shacks before they’d sell for 5% more? This was the last gasp of Seattle’s market, now the old money to blow is spent? All these reasons together?

The problems with hypothesizing on why morons would pay more for Seattle homes when sales rates are plummetting are endless.

But of course this is Seattle, the land of the $5 cup of coffee invention….who says there’s common sense about money around here?
3 Displaced Seattlite // Oct 31, 2007 at 5:45 pm

When Cramer said Seattle and Bethesda (actually Montgomery County, but he meant Bethesda) were the only places to buy, did anyone check to see what is happening over there? Check 20816-20817 - real spendy, fancy-pants areas. Who has that money, and why do they keep buying?
4 Buceri // Nov 1, 2007 at 4:56 am

Off topic; but you know something is happening when the Dow is breaking records, GDP grow is at 3.9%; and still the Fed cuts rates another 0.25%.
5 off topic // Nov 1, 2007 at 8:11 am

Buceri,

some economists are calling bull on that GDP growth stat:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/52374-i-call-shenanigans-on-gdp

and the Dow is breaking records in a currency that reaches a new record low every day. adjusted for inflation, i’d bet records are not being broken.

the USD is down 3% in three weeks. the GDP growth is for the quarter was 3.9% annualized. depending on how they correct for inflation the real GDP growth may actually be negative.

the Fed sees the recession for what it is, is faking the numbers to save the christmas season, and cutting interest rates to export some of our debt through inflation
6 Buceri // Nov 1, 2007 at 9:41 am

Off topic; of course the 3.9% is annualized, otherwise we would be a banana republic. Industrialized nations grow between 3 to 4%. Our growth puts us at the high end.
Annual inflation?? You are right, I did not consider that. But doesn’t that makes the cutting of interest rate even more confusing?
7 Renter // Nov 1, 2007 at 10:44 am

Whats up with inventory falling off so much in the past week or so?
8 deejayoh // Nov 1, 2007 at 10:58 am

Renter said,

on November 1st, 2007 at 10:44 am

Whats up with inventory falling off so much in the past week or so?

normal seasonality…
9 Brian // Nov 1, 2007 at 12:07 pm

Anyone see the news today on banks (WaMu) colluding with appraisers? I think this is the beginning of the “add fuel to the fire” period of this downturn. I’m not anticipating anything remotely good being said about real estate for some time to come.

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