Hmm…what’s wrong here? Obviously a paltry $40K doesn’t dent the market.

If you follow the markets, there will be no soft landing…best to sell quickly.

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Nostra"golly"Us, Humor is always appreciated. That made me laugh.

The truthiness from my gut tells me that Nostradumbass is someone trying to make a point about anonymous posters — perhaps someone from the Seattle PI blogs?

Gut based truthiness is probably not to be relied on.

You write convoluted [believe me a 5 year old couldn't make logic out of your ramblings], but I catch irritation from you against us Bubble Brains.

You also make it “fuzzy clear” that you believe in the fairy tale that the real estate bubble will soft land in 6 months, too bad you have no support from most of the rest of us educated Bubble Brains that totally disagree with with your “wishful thinking”; including the Everett Herald [which by the way, does have a much more honest and pragmatic editor, compared to the Seattle real estate rag news choices].

We’ve just seen the very tip of the iceberg on subprime and ARM impacts [this is gonna go on for years and just worsen with time] and the quick fix of “just convert the Jumbos to fixed loans” sounds good if you have like 20% equity to suck from [remember, ya owe the difference between your artificially low short term Jumbo Loan interest payments and the catchup fixed interest "cash" is owed over several years too, before you can convert to fixed].

Even if part of your soft landing scenario fairy tale [I should call it a miracle] comes true and the house prices don’t decrease 15-20%, just stay flat, the subprimes and ARMs are screwed. They simply don’t have the cash to convert to fixed.

Yep, due to the exclusive obsession with YOY prices, price changes are missed at inflection points. If prices went down every month for the next few months then YOY prices would still be higher. At some point soon (next few months) the YOY stats will be negative and all hell will break loose in the minds of sellers. I think this will happen a little before the seasonal inventory starts to pile on in the spring.

YOY stats are great when the market is on a steady trajectory. Otherwise, they suck. Unfortunately, MOM stats are too volatile. Some kind of weighted moving average would seem more appropriate to me…

Not really my friend -
1990 – Owner of $80K condo wants to upgrade to $130K house. WalMart $6/hr employee can not afford $16K down payment. Owner has to stay put.
2005 – Same owner of $275K condo wants to upgrade to $400K house. WalMart employee (now makes $7.80/hr.), buys condo with no money down.
2007 – Loan resets, WalMart employee tries to refi and get laughed off the office. Looses house.

Take this event and multiply it by 2 to 4 million = excess inventory.

Anyone that file for foreclosure now it’s out of the market since can not qualify. Pool of buyers just got smaller.

Prices will go down not because techies on this blog want free houses. Prices will come down because economists have indicated that never in the history of real estate there has been such a flow of irresponsible lending that produced such an immense run up in price. Plus builders building at record pace increasing inventory, and adding to high employment.

Now we have excess inventory, tightening of credit, and an eminent recession (not if you watch Fox News – where economy looks as good as the war in Iraq).

Nobody expects a free house; we expect a cheaper house, much cheaper.

“Feldstein said that Shiller’s analysis began with the striking fact that national indexes of real house prices and real rents moved together until 2000 and that real house prices then surged to a level 80 percent higher than equivalent rents, driven in part by a widespread popular belief that houses were an irresistible investment opportunity. How else could an average American family buy an asset appreciating at 9 percent a year , with 80 percent ( or eventually 100%) of that investment financed by a mortgage with a tax deductible interest rate of 6 percent (or a 2% “teaser” ), implying an annual rate of return on the initial equity of more than 25 percent? (In the end of almost infinity!)

http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2006/08/26/weekinreview/27leon_graph2.large.gif

A couple more reductions like that, I’d be tempted to buy it myself.

after this is all said and done, I no longer think we’ll see 50-80% price reductions. Sure, in real terms we will but what about factoring in for inflation? If we’ve lost 10% or more off the value of DX in the last year – what does that mean for home prices? It means they’ve already dropped a heck of a lot more than you realize.

I wouldn’t want to own any assets denominated in dollars at the moment.

Actually to continue with that stream of conciousness… evidence of lower prices will continue to come out for months after ‘the bottom’. So you will say that the bottom hasn’t hit… I say that we saw ‘record highs’ well after the actual peak.

Sane people aren’t buying houses right now…. especially not more expensive ones than they already have… and the upgraders make up the bulk of the market… therefore, if the average person doesn’t believe that its a good time to buy… refer to paragraph 1 above?

Well let’s see how much greed can either side take.

Which one do you think lasts longer – the greed for paying less or freeloading or the greed for getting more?

I could tell you what I think, but who gives a rat’s ass about what I think. Time and time again, only one thing happens in situations like this, and there’s a fat chance anything different is about to happen here as well- prices will fall and expectations of freeloading will be vanquished – and a middleground will be established – which for a 3 million metro area lies somewhere close to 6 months from now, at best, a year down the road at worst.

50% off? No, make that 90% off… better yet _FREE_. Yes, someone BUSTS their ass, invests their money, effort and life, so that some tightassed techie without a lick of sense about what constitutes value, can buy a house for 1/10th of the price today…

As I said previously, keep holding the breath and the diapers on… so when it hits home, both parties (buyers and sellers) will piss their pants from the overwhelming joy of having made 100% on their home and the buyers getting a free one in a span of 6 months to a year…

For Christ’s sake …

This is Slade Gorton’s nephew. I sat next to him at an auction a couple of years ago. Nice guy; very young and exhuberant.

Snohomish and Pierce County stats might show further weakening before King.

Please. My mind’s too small to comprehend the direct relationship between these two things… Someone, especially some of you that have crystal balls and a yearning for the unreal….explain it to me in terms a 5 year old can dig.

Some Realtors, too, swear by the practice. Ardell DellaLoggia, a Seattle-area Realtor, buried a statue beneath the “For Sale” sign on a property that she thought was overpriced. She didn’t tell the owner until after it had sold. “He was an atheist,” she explains. “But he thanked me.”

The only good news out there? That WaMu is collapsing! HAHAHAHAHA got puts?

The credit crisis did affect the market and has had a material impact. The credit crisis is a by-product of the lending environment. It’s all connected. Speaking for myself, the change in standards has slowed refinancing transactions our office handles. The pool of credit worthy borrowers has improved and those with less than stellar credit are finding it more difficult to obtain financing either to purchase or refinance.

The idea of “normal market” is somewhat based upon one’s own perception. To some, today’s “normalcy” is putting people out of business, forcing BK’s and other problems. Many builders certainly wouldn’t characterize this “normal market” as fun. Would the people sending me resume’s from title companies consider their current employment situation as “normal.” Again, it’s about your perception.

Thanx Markor.

- Is it just me, or does this statement make no sense. I would think the sellers would be worried about subprime problems and tightened lending standards.