The prediction from that article is, indeed, over a 5 year range. Their oracle predicts that house prices will fall ~20% over the next five years—AND, rather less easy to find among the numbers, that rents will rise that same amount in the next five years.

If that does come to pass, I still maintain that Seattle will *still* be an unaffordable place to live.

That $500K median SFH in the city will drop to $400K–but unless the median city income rockets up to $133K (from its current $70K for a family of 4, $56K for single people), that’s still unaffordable by traditional lending limits of borrowing 3X income.

And the upward pressure on rents will make it harder for renters to get by, and for those who want to buy, to save for those down payments…

In sum–I don’t think this is the kind of good news that you bubble dudes think it is.

It’s a lousy time to buy. Renting isn’t a bad option. It’s also still a good time to sell. Unless you want to hang on forever, or want to chase a falling market down the rabbit hole.

Flip to page 77.

Hundreds of thousands of people, including the author, have sold their homes under the patronage of St. Joseph, whose intercession they sought after burying his statue in their yard……

Underground Real Estate Agent Kit

It seems to be about $2000/mo right now, if it gets higher than this the rentor market totally dries up or is too intermittant and short-term. Also, the rentors become buyers.

What does that mean? Irrespective of the statistical tool used to predict rents, with stagnating household incomes in America and Seattle, there’s a dollar limit the landlord can get.

Will household average incomes rise in Seattle in the next few years? Doubtful, unless new domestic technologies emerge creating unique domestic job growth, something we haven’t seen in decades with this outsourcing phenomena.

only differentiating forces, like changes in interest rates, will change the cost ratio of renting vs owning.

When 5 years is up, what will Fortune say? “Well, there was a fundamental shift that no one could have foreseen..” Of course there was, that’s why such predictions are so tough.

either that, or Seattle has changed as a market and is no longer the Seattle of 15 years ago, so it will move to whatever multiplier is more appropriate for a more prominent city.