Why aren’t most people sharing their own predicament, is beyond me…

a) because I’m not in a predicament
b) even if I was, it’d be none of your "golly" business.

I thought nostradamus would just know anyway

You say you’re here to get people to act. Okay, I am acting. I’m acting passively, by not buying overpriced real estate at the top of the market. When will I buy? One of the flags I’m looking for is the SoCal market to bottom out – the Seattle area will be a few months behind. Most socioeconomic trends originating in SoCal eventually affect Seattle to some degree. We’re just 12 to 18 months behind on our local bubble deflation.

Really?!? How many articles do you see in the Times or the PI stating that the market is not good? Several of my neighbors have had their homes on the market for 150+ days. When the idea of dropping the price is brought up, they turn their noses up. I am a home owner and at the same time, I’m not greedy. I don’t feel that my house has appreciated double-digits every year. For that matter, I a person who does NOT feel that a home is an investment. It is a place to live. Nothing more. But hey….what do I know? And if I may ask….what do you want people to do? Buy?

Bt s fr, n n hs sd why thy r hr – r thy byng r sllng, cn nt sll r cn nt by? nly n gy – blrbn – ws frthcmng bt hs ntntns – h wntd hm h thght shld b prcd t 1M, bt th dd skd lk 1.2M… t lst w knw _hs_ stry – nt smn lss.

Why rn’t mst ppl shrng thr wn prdcmnt, s bynd m…

’m nt syng nythng bt y spcfclly thr…. s dnt tk t ny prtclr wy.< hrf="#" clss="rplyt" nclck="rplyt('30326','∓#91;trll∓#93;',''); rtrn fls;">Rply – < hrf="#" clss="qt" nclck="qt('30326','∓#91;trll∓#93;','Dvd - ds t lk lk nd t pst th bd nws dd? Tht jb\'s mr thn flld. \'m jst hr t mrdr hp f ny knd - gd\/bd\/whtvr - nd gt ppl t ct.\r\n\r\nBt s fr, n n hs sd why thy r hr - r thy byng r sllng, cn nt sll r cn nt by? nly n gy - blrbn - ws frthcmng bt hs ntntns - h wntd hm h thght shld b prcd t 1M, bt th dd skd lk 1.2M... t lst w knw _hs_ stry - nt smn lss.\r\n\r\nWhy rn\'t mst ppl shrng thr wn prdcmnt, s bynd m...\r\n\r\n\'m nt syng nythng bt y spcfclly thr.... s dnt tk t ny prtclr wy.',''); rtrn fls;">Qt

From the article: “I think a lot of traders realize that the overall situation hasn’t changed a whole lot, with yesterday’s rally notwithstanding. There are more mortgage rate resets on the horizon.”

Link

100 bucks that it will be down at least 100 tomorrow.”

Nov. 14
Dow finishes down 92.75.

Well, I was only 7 points off. Why aren’t you posting a cheerleading article about the market today? If you read this article that attempts to explain why the market was down today, you will see that people are still worried about this little subprime thingy. Maybe you’ve heard of it?

“I think a lot of traders realize that the overall situation hasn’t changed a whole lot, with yesterday’s rally notwithstanding. There are more mortgage rate resets on the horizon.”

Link

-David

100 bucks that it will be down at least 100 tomorrow.

Ok, that was kinda freaky. It was basically trading sideways all day, then 30 minutes before the closing takes a nosedive from 40 up down as far as over 100 down. Looks like it ended up closing down 93, still that was a pretty good guess though.

Correction, looks like it was down 83, after some adjustments.

Thanks for nothing johnny.

Craig Guillot

It may still have to get worse before it gets better, but the residential real estate market shows signs that demand is building and home values may start recovering in 2008….

http://biz.yahoo.com/brn/071108/23668.html?.v=1&.pf=loans

I am shocked at how some of the agents on the PI site are eating away at their own credibility by continuing to parrot the now-discredited Lereah/Yun lines.

Those are the first agents I would cross off my list when it comes time to buy, as they appear to have little intelligence. If my transaction goes sideways, they would be the last people I want representing my interests.

None taken, certainly. Thought it was pretty funny, actually, and more thoughtful than the waste of bandwidth on King5’s site. Though I don’t know geon from Nostra"golly"Us.

No, Mack, but it appears we’re still not above calling each other “curryeaters”.

Nothing’s disjoint. What you (or our mighty “fearless” selfpromoting blogmaster Tim) or I or anyone else says, leaves an impact. How much or for how long, is debatable.. but every "golly" word ever written, made a difference.

At least we’re not throwing rocks at each other.

Most like it will be a dead cat bounce:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dead_cat_bounce

on November 13th, 2007 at 7:51 pm

experience is, at best, an indicator of people’s past behaviors, which unfortunately for us (or fortunately for some who see this clearly, or clear-er than others), and not really an indicator of any future performance.

but what you definitely can count on is people putting their past into the future and acting on auto-pilot, e.g. reactively.

now, can you imagine the advantage of that, as well as the fact that you listen/observe _people_ (not so much “the market”)? the fact that you can almost always ‘predict’ people’s behavior? I think it’s priceless. You seem to be banking on it quite well. Good for you.

Economics is an extension of human psychology, but many will disregard that connection too, while looking only at numbers…

but what do I know, right…?

Gosh, i am not sure what you are trying to say. Seems logical, yet a bit disjointed. Anyway, even with experience, and constant analysis of the present, no one can really predict the future. Look at the MONKEYS that run WAMU. Six months ago they said all will be fine and a soft landing and at last week’s analyst conference call they were so negative that the stock tanked 17% in one day and then NY Att. Gen. Cuomo (Hilary’ secret lover, oh yes she likes boys) threw them in a very interesting case with appraisers being pressured to come up with the right value..gosh I could go one but time to sleep..good luck and good night

Do you have a brother or cousin named “Meshugy”?

Here lies my exit speech for the evening, hehe:

No offense to WestSideBilly and his good friend geon (I think?) earlier: I was merely poking fun.

Reading and participating in King 5’s discussion, and especially here at the Seattle Bubble Blog, is always good too.

Elvis lives. Somewhere.

Yes, this is in neighborhoods where the median income is above $100K/yr. (Look up the second richest county in the US, and here’s a hint: it’s not in WA).

Jobs, incomes, migration, desirability, this area has the “fundamentals” but it doesn’t count for much once the prices start to fall.

I left Seattle a few months ago, and watching the RE market tank in a wealthier area has been a real eye opener as to what can happen after a market peaks.

Keep chanting “Seattle is Different” all you want, but unless the Pink Ponies come out in full force the good ol’ PNW is hitting a down cycle like every other overpriced bubble market.

How much money do you have tied in up stalled flips? Must be a killer making those I/O mortgage payments every month, fingers crossed that it is the last!

bt wht y dfntly cn cnt n s ppl pttng thr pst nt th ftr nd ctng n t-plt, .g. rctvly.

nw, cn y mgn th dvntg f tht, s wll s th fct tht y lstn/bsrv _ppl_ (nt s mch “th mrkt”)? th fct tht y cn lmst lwys ‘prdct’ ppl’s bhvr? thnk t’s prclss. Y sm t b bnkng n t qt wll. Gd fr y.

cnmcs s n xtnsn f hmn psychlgy, bt mny wll dsrgrd tht cnnctn t, whl lkng nly t nmbrs…

bt wht d knw, rght…?< hrf="#" clss="rplyt" nclck="rplyt('30127','∓#91;trll∓#93;',''); rtrn fls;">Rply – < hrf="#" clss="qt" nclck="qt('30127','∓#91;trll∓#93;','xprnc s, t bst, n ndctr f ppl\'s pst bhvrs, whch nfrtntly fr s (r frtntly fr sm wh s ths clrly, r clr-r thn thrs), nd nt rlly n ndctr f ny ftr prfrmnc.\r\n\r\nbt wht y dfntly cn cnt n s ppl pttng thr pst nt th ftr nd ctng n t-plt, .g. rctvly.\r\n\r\nnw, cn y mgn th dvntg f tht, s wll s th fct tht y lstn\/bsrv _ppl_ (nt s mch \&qt;th mrkt\&qt;)? th fct tht y cn lmst lwys \'prdct\' ppl\'s bhvr? thnk t\'s prclss. Y sm t b bnkng n t qt wll. Gd fr y.\r\n\r\ncnmcs s n xtnsn f hmn psychlgy, bt mny wll dsrgrd tht cnnctn t, whl lkng nly t nmbrs...\r\n\r\nbt wht d knw, rght...?',''); rtrn fls;">Qt

Dn Rss wn’t wn nxt tm rnd n W by th wy.< hrf="#" clss="rplyt" nclck="rplyt('30123','∓#91;trll∓#93;',''); rtrn fls;">Rply – < hrf="#" clss="qt" nclck="qt('30123','∓#91;trll∓#93;',' dnt gmbl - bt d lk Hllry, s pt my mny n hr. Y cld sy Hllry gv Bll th prsdncy.... \r\n\r\nDn Rss wn\'t wn nxt tm rnd n W by th wy.',''); rtrn fls;">Qt

on November 13th, 2007 at 7:28 pm

AndyMiami – I know you can read and predict the future man… and sell short – you’re good!

Actually, it’s all about experience. I got burned bad in the early 90’s in Boston real estate, and managed to sell just in time in Miami Beach, before moving here to watch and wait for a major correction…I may be wrong, but experience, both profitable and not, is the best predictor of the future. Who said that history repeats itself??

“A fool and his money are soon parted.”

Th bv ws nt th trth.< hrf="#" clss="rplyt" nclck="rplyt('30117','∓#91;trll∓#93;',''); rtrn fls;">Rply – < hrf="#" clss="qt" nclck="qt('30117','∓#91;trll∓#93;','grg - bst gss - flt 2008 ntl 2009\/ nw prsdnt, nd dpndng n wh hd rs clrd glsss whn thy bght hm 2-3 yrs g, nthr 5-10% prc djstmnts d t RM-rs gspng fr r... nd ppl jst hvng t mv d t jb\/rlctn\/whtvr.\r\n\r\nTh bv ws nt th trth.',''); rtrn fls;">Qt

If not, it’s hard to blame Robert Mak for that show. If yes, who are they?

month 2007 2006 % change
Jun 304 299 +2%
Jul 299 248 +21%
Aug 346 296 +17%
Sep 344 250 +38%
Oct 354 289 +22%
Nov 151 104 +45%

November stats are only up to the 17th and the increase may be caused by more Fridays in the mix (for some reason it seems like foreclosure notices are filed on Friday than other days of the week).

Care to put money on that? Do you know how many Democrats will vote for a Republican just to vote against her? But go ahead….live in your dream world….