Seattle Bubble

• Happy Thanksgiving
• Affordability Continues Downward Slide
• Washington Population Up 120,000
• NWMLS: King County SFH Prices Hit 0% YOY.
• Housing Affordable… Or Maybe Not

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23 responses so far ↓

• 1 deejayoh // Nov 22, 2007 at 2:16 pm

  Happy Thanksgiving to you too Tim.

• 2 MisterBubble // Nov 22, 2007 at 3:03 pm

  Turkey says: bubble bubble.

• 3 AndySeattle // Nov 22, 2007 at 9:01 pm

  Happy Turkey day Seattle Bubble crew!

• 4 softwarengineer // Nov 23, 2007 at 7:18 am

  PLUG IN THE THANKSGIVING BATTERIES FOR MORE RESOLVE NEXT WEEK

  A recharge does us all good.

• 5 Rhonda Porter // Nov 23, 2007 at 10:25 am

  Happy Thanksgiving!

• 6 george // Nov 23, 2007 at 10:30 am

  Boston Globe article:

  Selling in Miami? You are up against almost 80,000 listed condos and single-family homes, according to ZipRealty, an online brokerage service.

  There are almost 30,000 units in Las Vegas; 42,000 in Boston; 35,000 in Seattle; and 110,000 in Los Angeles. Those inventories are through October.

  “People were telling me Boston and Seattle were OK,” said Morgan, who recently visited both cities. “I’ve got news for those folks. They aren’t OK.”

  http://www.boston.com/business/globe/articles/2007/11/21/bottom_line_for_home_buyers_is_price___and_not_much_else_matters/

• 7 Jess Taylor // Nov 23, 2007 at 3:07 pm

  I am happy to hear you are relaxing with your family because I am going to open a can of worms for you! Id like your advice? I am currently developing a mobile phone based real estate listings application that provides a low cost marketing tool/lead generator for agents. My question is what is the important factor in your marketing spending decision (ROI)? Think about it and anyone interested feel free to check out my site for more details. http://www.clearwavedigital.com/hotlinkmls.html. Thanks for your time and attention.

• 8 biliruben // Nov 24, 2007 at 1:19 pm

  Happy Turkey… Weekend!

• 9 biliruben // Nov 24, 2007 at 1:20 pm

  Oh yeah - go Cougs!

• 10 just_checking // Nov 24, 2007 at 1:44 pm

  Is this really the seattle times ??? :)

  “because the agent receives a commission only when the deal is done, there is an incentive to close a sale — possibly at a higher price to earn a bigger commission”

  http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/realestate/2004031510_realhowto25.html

• 11 M Long // Nov 24, 2007 at 1:58 pm

  Front page of Drudge Report. Hold on to your hats it looks like things are really going to get interesting.

  http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071124/apfn_doomsday_scenario.html?.v=1

  I’ve been selling short real estate as I can for the last six months but it’s hard to find a good position. I’ve found some good commercial real estate ETFs but its hard to find ultrashorts for residential.

• 12 David McManus // Nov 24, 2007 at 3:21 pm

  Yeah M Long,

  I had already posted that on the “Doom and Gloom” counterpoint posting.

  “$sarcasm$”
  Short positions?!? What are you talking about? The time to buy is NOW! Buy now or be priced out forever!
  “$sarcasm$”

• 13 MisterBubble // Nov 25, 2007 at 3:29 pm

  Absolutely brilliant article in the NY Times:

  Trying to Guess What Happens Next

  Cheap credit has fostered another development that was crucial in creating the current state of things: It unleashed a wave of mortgages with exotically lenient terms, such as interest-only payments and no money down. That allowed buyers to take on more expensive homes than they could have otherwise afforded. As home values rose much the way dot-com stocks had a decade earlier, banks offered loans and no-fuss refinancing that allowed homeowners to turn increased value into money. From 2004 to 2006, Americans took more than $800 billion a year out of their homes, according to most estimates.

  With prices now plummeting and banks savaged by mortgage losses, this artery of credit is drying up. The American consumer, a crucial engine of growth for the global economy, may finally be tapped out.

• 14 middle class? // Nov 25, 2007 at 3:35 pm

  George quotes an article in the Boston Globe that says there are 35,000 units in the Seattle market, yet on the Seattle Bubble site shows that in all of King County, as of 11.25.2007 there are only 10,393 houses for sale, and only 3,349 condos for sale. Unless my math is wrong, this is less than 14,000 units. 14,000 units for all of King County doesn’t seem like a glut of supply to me by any means.
  ——————————
  As of 11.25.2007 @ 02:00 PM
  (updated hourly)
  King County
  SFH: 10,393
  Condo: 3,349

• 15 Dave // Nov 25, 2007 at 4:30 pm

  The Seattle PI from Washington (From The Housing Bubble Blog) . “Jamie Goodwin knew it would be a tough time to sell her Central Area townhouse. ‘I’m a real estate attorney, and I knew that the market was soft,’ she said. That’s why she set her asking price at what another townhouse in her development fetched a year earlier.”

  “Even so, agents weren’t even looking at the listing online, said agent Erin Goodwin, Jamie’s sister. ‘We listed in October, and I think maybe there’s 23 clicks.’”

  “Sitting in a townhouse he was trying to sell last month, Real Estate agent Alex Eckardt said he’d seen a fair amount of traffic since listing the home about a month earlier, but no offers. ‘Six months ago this would have sold in the first week,’ he said.”

  “More and more, homes of all types in Seattle are chasing a buyer pool that has become smaller and more cautious over the past year. But real estate agents and sales statistics show that the slowdown in townhouse sales has brought price cuts out of proportion with the rest of the market.”

  “‘What we are seeing is these huge price reductions, where a guy’s asking $600,000 one week, then $550,000 the next week and $500,000 the week after that,’ said agent Ryan Thompson.”

  “Greg Bartell, (an) agent who specializes in townhouses, says he has seen particular slowing since August. ‘I think the most apparent thing is prices coming down,’ he said. ‘I’ve seen some come down $90,000 off the list” price.’”

• 16 Alan // Nov 25, 2007 at 4:53 pm

  I bet the 35k figure includes King, Pierce, and Snohomish counties.

• 17 Alan // Nov 25, 2007 at 4:57 pm

  King County
  SFH: 10,395
  Condo: 3,349

  Snohomish County
  SFH: 5,552
  Condo: 1,003

  Pierce County
  SFH: 7,212
  Condo: 1,060

  Although that only comes out to $28.5k according to Tim’s records.

  We do believe that condos are underreported on those figures.

• 18 Scotsman // Nov 25, 2007 at 7:22 pm

  Happy T.G. recovery!!

  Drove through downtown Bellevue over the weekend for the first time in a year or so, counted almost a dozen cranes, all for condos. This will be interesting to watch. There must be thousands of units going up.

• 19 WestSideBilly // Nov 26, 2007 at 9:39 am

  Condos are always under reported. They list 2 or 3 sample units (Studio, 1 BR, 2BR, etc), but in reality there are 20 of each available.

  35,000 does seem a bit steep though.

• 20 deejayoh // Nov 26, 2007 at 9:56 am

  George quotes an article in the Boston Globe that says there are 35,000 units in the Seattle market

  The article references ZipRealty as the source, FWIW. I can’t seem to duplicate a search like this on that site, but I can believe that if they used a ~30 day old number, the 3 county total was probably close to 35k as it sits at 28k today from Tim’s source (Realtor.com)

• 21 middle class ? // Nov 26, 2007 at 10:32 am

  deejayoh said: deejayoh said,

  on November 26th, 2007 at 9:56 am

  George quotes an article in the Boston Globe that says there are 35,000 units in the Seattle market

  The article references ZipRealty as the source, FWIW. I can’t seem to duplicate a search like this on that site, but I can believe that if they used a ~30 day old number, the 3 county total was probably close to 35k as it sits at 28k today from Tim’s source (Realtor.com)

  If the source used 30 day old numbers, the inventory number would be lower than today — either that, or in the last 30 days there were 7000 units sold (35,000 - 28000 = 7000), which means inventory is declining which will mean prices will stabilize or go up. So I think the numbers quoted in the Boston paper are bogus. And, it wouldn’t be a comparison to lump Snohomish and Pierce into the King County numbers. Most of the King County numbers are stronger than Sno or Pierce.

  Also remember that the new townhouses are sectioned in the residential listings, so while many consider them ‘condos’ they really aren’t. But they still quack like a duck except for no HOA.

• 22 Joel // Nov 26, 2007 at 11:21 am

  If the source used 30 day old numbers, the inventory number would be lower than today — either that, or in the last 30 days there were 7000 units sold (35,000 - 28000 = 7000), which means inventory is declining which will mean prices will stabilize or go up.

  Nice try, but a little basic knowledge about RE could do you some good.
  Inventory has been decreasing in the last couple months due to normal seasonal variation. Every year there is a decline into fall and a increase into spring. And units don’t have to sell in order to be removed from the MLS. They can be removed for any reason or their listing can expire.

• 23 deejayoh // Nov 26, 2007 at 1:18 pm

  If the source used 30 day old numbers, the inventory number would be lower than today

  Not. The logs are right there, just click the links. Inventory for all the numbers Tim quotes was 30.6k on 10/26, which is (check my math here) higher than today - and not so far off of the quote.

  It is typical to lump Sno/King/Pierce together if you are talking about the Seattle MSA. And recognizing that inventory numbers are different from every source; 35k for the Seattle MSA may not be 100% accurate, but it’s not off by orders of magnitude.

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