If the source used 30 day old numbers, the inventory number would be lower than today

Not. The logs are right there, just click the links. Inventory for all the numbers Tim quotes was 30.6k on 10/26, which is (check my math here) higher than today – and not so far off of the quote.

It is typical to lump Sno/King/Pierce together if you are talking about the Seattle MSA. And recognizing that inventory numbers are different from every source; 35k for the Seattle MSA may not be 100% accurate, but it’s not off by orders of magnitude.

If the source used 30 day old numbers, the inventory number would be lower than today — either that, or in the last 30 days there were 7000 units sold (35,000 – 28000 = 7000), which means inventory is declining which will mean prices will stabilize or go up.

Nice try, but a little basic knowledge about RE could do you some good.
Inventory has been decreasing in the last couple months due to normal seasonal variation. Every year there is a decline into fall and a increase into spring. And units don’t have to sell in order to be removed from the MLS. They can be removed for any reason or their listing can expire.

on November 26th, 2007 at 9:56 am

George quotes an article in the Boston Globe that says there are 35,000 units in the Seattle market

The article references ZipRealty as the source, FWIW. I can’t seem to duplicate a search like this on that site, but I can believe that if they used a ~30 day old number, the 3 county total was probably close to 35k as it sits at 28k today from Tim’s source (Realtor.com)

If the source used 30 day old numbers, the inventory number would be lower than today — either that, or in the last 30 days there were 7000 units sold (35,000 – 28000 = 7000), which means inventory is declining which will mean prices will stabilize or go up. So I think the numbers quoted in the Boston paper are bogus. And, it wouldn’t be a comparison to lump Snohomish and Pierce into the King County numbers. Most of the King County numbers are stronger than Sno or Pierce.

Also remember that the new townhouses are sectioned in the residential listings, so while many consider them ‘condos’ they really aren’t. But they still quack like a duck except for no HOA.

George quotes an article in the Boston Globe that says there are 35,000 units in the Seattle market

The article references ZipRealty as the source, FWIW. I can’t seem to duplicate a search like this on that site, but I can believe that if they used a ~30 day old number, the 3 county total was probably close to 35k as it sits at 28k today from Tim’s source (Realtor.com)

35,000 does seem a bit steep though.

Drove through downtown Bellevue over the weekend for the first time in a year or so, counted almost a dozen cranes, all for condos. This will be interesting to watch. There must be thousands of units going up.

Snohomish County
SFH: 5,552
Condo: 1,003

Pierce County
SFH: 7,212
Condo: 1,060

Although that only comes out to $28.5k according to Tim’s records.

We do believe that condos are underreported on those figures.

“Even so, agents weren’t even looking at the listing online, said agent Erin Goodwin, Jamie’s sister. ‘We listed in October, and I think maybe there’s 23 clicks.’”

“Sitting in a townhouse he was trying to sell last month, Real Estate agent Alex Eckardt said he’d seen a fair amount of traffic since listing the home about a month earlier, but no offers. ‘Six months ago this would have sold in the first week,’ he said.”

“More and more, homes of all types in Seattle are chasing a buyer pool that has become smaller and more cautious over the past year. But real estate agents and sales statistics show that the slowdown in townhouse sales has brought price cuts out of proportion with the rest of the market.”

“‘What we are seeing is these huge price reductions, where a guy’s asking $600,000 one week, then $550,000 the next week and $500,000 the week after that,’ said agent Ryan Thompson.”

“Greg Bartell, (an) agent who specializes in townhouses, says he has seen particular slowing since August. ‘I think the most apparent thing is prices coming down,’ he said. ‘I’ve seen some come down $90,000 off the list” price.’”

Trying to Guess What Happens Next

Cheap credit has fostered another development that was crucial in creating the current state of things: It unleashed a wave of mortgages with exotically lenient terms, such as interest-only payments and no money down. That allowed buyers to take on more expensive homes than they could have otherwise afforded. As home values rose much the way dot-com stocks had a decade earlier, banks offered loans and no-fuss refinancing that allowed homeowners to turn increased value into money. From 2004 to 2006, Americans took more than $800 billion a year out of their homes, according to most estimates.

With prices now plummeting and banks savaged by mortgage losses, this artery of credit is drying up. The American consumer, a crucial engine of growth for the global economy, may finally be tapped out.

I had already posted that on the “Doom and Gloom” counterpoint posting.

“$sarcasm$”
Short positions?!? What are you talking about? The time to buy is NOW! Buy now or be priced out forever!
“$sarcasm$”

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071124/apfn_doomsday_scenario.html?.v=1

I’ve been selling short real estate as I can for the last six months but it’s hard to find a good position. I’ve found some good commercial real estate ETFs but its hard to find ultrashorts for residential.

“because the agent receives a commission only when the deal is done, there is an incentive to close a sale — possibly at a higher price to earn a bigger commission”

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/realestate/2004031510_realhowto25.html

Selling in Miami? You are up against almost 80,000 listed condos and single-family homes, according to ZipRealty, an online brokerage service.

There are almost 30,000 units in Las Vegas; 42,000 in Boston; 35,000 in Seattle; and 110,000 in Los Angeles. Those inventories are through October.

“People were telling me Boston and Seattle were OK,” said Morgan, who recently visited both cities. “I’ve got news for those folks. They aren’t OK.”

http://www.boston.com/business/globe/articles/2007/11/21/bottom_line_for_home_buyers_is_price___and_not_much_else_matters/

A recharge does us all good.