I have relatives in Minnesota – they have occasionally compared Duluth to San Francisco: founded about the same time, set on hills overlooking a bay, lots of old Victorian houses.

I commented (to my California relatives): “People in Duluth may compare Duluth to San Francisco, but nobody in San Francisco compares San Francisco to Duluth.”

Seattle’s nice and has a lot of things going for it, but comparing it to New York, Chicago, and San Francisco, is just silly. The only people that make that comparison are people that live here.

Maybe you can make an argument that something has happened in the last 10 years which make it worthy to be considered in the same breath as such superstar cities, but if there some reason for it, I’ve missed it. The fundamentals of Seattle, except for home prices, are pretty much exactly what they were when I arrived in 1995.

I posit we don’t belong in the class of city that defies standard relationships between housing prices and rents and incomes. And so we will see a return to those relationships.

Leaving aside for the moment whether Seattle belongs in such a lofty group, C-S has all three of those cities declining. Perhaps that’s not the best comparison, Angie, if you are trying to justify the current price levels.

The math says that the median household income can’t even get in at the bottom of Seattle’s housing market using a tradtional 20% down 30 year fixed mortgage, despite near-historic low interest rates. I guess that makes median income families poor, which would make Seattle truly special.

About as special as other major US cities, which are also unaffordable to median household income-earners:

San Francisco: median household income 2005 = $57,833 (Wikipedia), median home price late 2007 (Cnn/Money article 11/07) ca $800K

New York City: median household income 1999 (from 2000 census, via Answers.com) = $38,293, median home price 2005 (USA today article) ca. $1.15 million

Chicago: median household income 1999 = (Answers.com) $38,625, median home price 2005 (housingtracker.net) $286,900

I don’t understand those who prefer an echo-chamber.

+1

You know full well what median means (half more, half less), and that what’s reasonably affordable for the median household income is far less than median prices. Do the math.

The math says that the median household income can’t even get in at the bottom of Seattle’s housing market using a tradtional 20% down 30 year fixed mortgage, despite near-historic low interest rates. I guess that makes median income families poor, which would make Seattle truly special.

I think she likes this blog fine.

I don’t understand those who prefer an echo-chamber.

If you don’t like this blog, I’m sure the Tim will give you a refund and you can go spend your time elsewhere.

Don’t let the door hit you on the way out!

You know full well what median means (half more, half less), and that what’s reasonably affordable for the median household income is far less than median prices. Do the math.

This is a blog where many … can’t buy one of those outrageously expensive houses.
…
If the only place you can afford to buy a house is in the poor part of town, guess what that makes you…

It has been shown time and again that there are also many people here that can afford a home around here, but choose not to because homes are overpriced.

If you believe that the informal polls have any relation to reality, such people outnumber those that can’t afford a home on this site roughly 9 to 5.

If your argument is directed only at the minority of people here that can’t afford a home, then fine. But it comes across as if you’re addressing the majority, when in fact the majority most likely does not fit your assumptions.

This is a blog where many feel unfairly maligned (“dirty renters”) because they can’t buy one of those outrageously expensive houses.

Look how quickly y’all looked down your noses at people in SHA housing, people for whom the prospect home ownership seems also, presumably, unattainable (“you know the stigmas attached to poverty where higher crime rate is on top of the list. Right or wrong, true or not given the choice the vast majority want to avoid the risk especially if they have kids., emphasis added.)

I say again, from my oh-so-inflammatory post the other day:

If the only place you can afford to buy a house is in the poor part of town, guess what that makes you, even if you are “well-employed”. You could work on getting over the sense that you’re better than other poor people.

New home prices were down 13% in October, yet sales pace still falls well short of forecasts. August and September sales reading cut.

newhome_sales/index.htm?postversion=2007112915

I know you think that people from eastern Washington are a bunch of hill-billies, but Richland, WA has more people with PHDs per capita than any other city in Washington. Their kids tend to be pretty bright.

King County is the wealthiest county in Wash state. Seattle and other King County municipalities are the ones most likely to support school levy funding–look at how the recent vote to fund schools via simple majority was distributed across the state.

Having grown up in Los Angeles and Houston TX (mainly a product of the LA public schools system), I can say, “HELL NO” I don’t want my kids going to school in a poor area. The public schools I went to as a kid were horrible, I wouldn’t wish that on anyone else. My old man worked at the Watts GM plant in LA, when he got a chance to get the hell out he did, and we moved to eastern WA, where the public schools are decent.

If schools in eastern Washington were a step up, that’s saying something.

There is nothing in the Seattle area remotely comparable to Watts.

Not wishing the same for your kids is borderline idiotic. It’s tough enough growing up as a kid in modern day why would you not want your kids to grow up going to the best schools?

That is the stupidest thing I have ever read. Schools are locally funded, living in a poor area means your schools are going to be poorly funded, plain and simple. I would rather rent a house and have my children attend good schools with those nasty rich kids then buy a POS which forces them to attend bad schools so that I can tell people I own a house. Quite a selfish attitude for a parent.

I used to live in Atlanta until a couple of years ago, and the economy there was/is doing just as well as Seattle. Really any major metropolitan area is doing well right now with only a few exceptions (e.g. Detroit). You could find a job in any of those areas just as easily as in Seattle. Why would someone from the Midwest choose to live in Seattle if they could make more money and buy the same priced home in California? Saying there are no jobs, if you exclude the entire west coast and entire northeast and every major metropolitan area in between as well is ridiculous.

Check this one out – just got sold – at 575k.

Original sales price was 720k. Now, what do you call that? Overpaid? Good deal? Bla bla? Whatever!

Granite countertops and stainless steel appliances are now proper nouns. That’s why it sold. Just ask Angie!

I never understood the appeal of living on a golf course. They’re not that attractive, really, and you have hundreds of people walking through your back yard more or less. Not to mention ‘errant’ drives into your windows.

I’m not sure Cincinnati vs. Seattle is really apples-to-apples though, especially factoring in the stress and ick of uprooting.

Yep. Much higher density, with a mix of market-rate housing and SHA-administered low-income housing.

BUT if you look at the parcel map on the KC site, Seattle Housing Authority owns pretty much everything around them…Don’t know what that means for the neighborhood, but can take a guess what it will mean for the schools…

Ah, I see, your kids are too precious to go to school with poor kids. And any parental involvement that you can provide to help make the school and community a better place is probably better spent on higher-income kids, who deserve your attention more. OK, nevermind, you probably wouldn’t fit in down here after all.

That sort of thing really pushes my buttons, as a welfare kid who went on to get a graduate degree. But hey, maybe I’m less afraid of poor people because I was one myself, and I just have more obligation to “pass it forward”.

And, more anecdata on Seattle’s desirability–one of my colleagues is about to turn down a solid job offer in Cincinnati in hopes that one may materialize in Seattle, since she doesn’t want to move away.

I think it depends on the size of the town home in whether the price is falling. The entry level homes priced at 350 and below are holding well it is the 450+ range that is suffering. Come on if your going to spend half a million you should get a little more than granite in the kitchen. Maybe some space:)

I lived in Seattle for the past 10 years, and I just left. I’ve run into 2 other couples that moved out east from Seattle in the past few months.

I hate to break it to you, but it’s not as desirable of a place to live as it was a few years ago and the high house prices don’t help. If you do a general poll across the US of people that are willing to pay $500K+ for a house somewhere that it rains for 6+ months out of the year, I think you’ll find that the appeal is pretty limited.

It’s a nice place, it’s just horribly overpriced for what it has to offer. But hey, in just a few years it’ll have a few miles of light rail, just like “big” cities had 50 years ago.

here’s an example listing, there are many
http://www.estately.com/p/WA_Seattle?location=Seattle#listings/info/747863

“We are pleased to announce that the owners of West Ridge Park have decided to not go forward with the planned condo conversion at this time. The property as a whole will remain a rental property.

We sincerely want to thank each and every one of you for your patience and understanding during these past months of change and uncertainty. We hope this announcement will please all of you. I know you are very excited that we are staying as a rental community, and hope each of you will stay with us in 2008!”

These guys got in in March 2007. Guess they were late to the party and no one was biting. Sign of times to come. If it can happen in West Seattle, it’s gonna happen elsewhere.

http://money.cnn.com/2007/11/29/real_estate/foreclosure_activity/index.htm?postversion=2007112905

Nostra"golly"Us said,

on November 28th, 2007 at 6:29 pm

Here’s more jerkoff material for some of you here who aren’t here for anything but to "female dog", moan and complain:

http://www.investingintelligently.com/wp-content/uploads/2006/08/a_history_of_home_values.png

In other news…. man lands on the moon. mariners win 116. seahawks lose superbowl

“The Rainier Vista redevelopment is almost all “craftsman style townhomes”” — you’re right, they’re nice. BUT if you look at the parcel map on the KC site, Seattle Housing Authority owns pretty much everything around them…Don’t know what that means for the neighborhood, but can take a guess what it will mean for the schools…

Actually, Rainier Vista is a project of the SHA and it’s on the site of an old WWII-era housing project. They tore it down in 2002 and have been using federal money to redevelop the area.

Angie — “The Rainier Vista redevelopment is almost all “craftsman style townhomes”” — you’re right, they’re nice. BUT if you look at the parcel map on the KC site, Seattle Housing Authority owns pretty much everything around them…Don’t know what that means for the neighborhood, but can take a guess what it will mean for the schools…

Yeah everyone, buy now! You can buy at the top of the greatest asset bubble in the history of the United States, and slowly watch your “investment” deteriorate along with the rest of America. Join the party!

Great advice Nostra! Keep the humor coming!

n Nvmbr 28th, 2007 t 2:16 pm

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