“Australia’s construction industry is slowing as land shortages…”

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_population_density

Australia’s population density is about 21,000,000 and it’s nearly as large as the US. At 6.7/sq mi, it is less than 1/10th the US population density. It is more densely populated than only 6 other nations : Namibia, French Guiana, Mongolia, Western Sahara, Falkland Islands, and Greenland.

So if Australia is out of land, no wonder we’re having problems here! We were out of land before 1920!

For the record, the US population density is 144 out of about 230 nations, but if you don’t count Alaska we sky-rocket up to about 100th on the list.

So I can compete with those who didn’t? No thanks.

So what? This phony runup in home prices caused “overbuilding” of inventory, someting Australia avoided more easily with higher interest rates [seeking alpha states in part]:

“….Australian Home Building Slows, Lags Behind Demand, BIS Says (Bloomberg, July 23rd): “Australia’s construction industry is slowing as land shortages and rising costs deter home builders, according to BIS Shrapnel Pty, a Sydney-based forecaster. Housing starts will fall 1% to 148,000 in the year ending June 30, 2008… Housing starts probably will lag behind demand for a fourth consecutive year, BIS said. Housing affordability dropped to a record in Q1 as land prices, interest rates, labor and material costs rose, prompting more Australians to rent rather than buy.” …”

The rest of the URL:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/41991-housing-bubble-and-real-estate-market-tracker

Oh, I know, Seattle’s monster household incomes will bail real estate out. Not.

See the proof:

http://money.cnn.com/2007/08/28/news/economy/census_incomepoverty_stats/index.htm?eref=rss_topstories

You’re all are gonna retire sooner or later, ya know how much money ya gotta save to get $2000/mo retirement interest income after taxes [more than most of us blogging on this panel will ever save in a lifetime, especially if we pour all our savings into an overpriced home]?

Double the American interest rates to normal Australian levels, and you can half the retirement savings need. What’s wrong with that?

Of course, that doesn’t mean you can trust him. It never hurts to follow up the offer with a phone call directly to the seller. “Just calling to say hi, and wondering if you got our offer.”

1) Of course you can buy for the cost of a latte…so long as you vary the frequency of your latte purchases accordingly.

1 latte a month? Nope.
1 latte a week? No again.
1 latte a day? Nuh uh.
1 latte per meal ($3*30*3=$270)? Well, no!
1 latte per waking hour ($3*30*16=$1440)? We have a winner.

Second, has anyone heard the radio commercial part of this add campaign? It takes place at a drive through, and it goes something like this.

Lady: I’d like a double tall latte with foam.
Teller: So that’s one 0 down mortgage on a quadrant home.
Lady: No, I said a latte with no foam.
Teller: Quadrant homes are … Please pull up to the window.
Lady: I really don’t think I can afford a home right now!
Teller: For the price of a latte you can buy a home right now. Please pull up to the window.

it would be interesting to plot the fed rate as an overlay on that graph.

You mean, this November is higher than any other November since 2007, right?

Nope, I meant any MONTH. Check it here.

I would say there hasn’t been a correction since 1991. Tim’s spreadsheet has the 3 county totals back then, (not KingCo SFH) and they are roughly comparable to where we stand today.

Here’s what I’m getting at: When was the last real-estate correction? And the one before that? What were inventory levels in November and December like during those corrections?

Obviously we’ve had a ’sellers market’ for a number of years in a row. And its obviously a buyers market now. When you compare a sellers market inventory level to a buyers market inventory level, I’m pretty sure we can all agree what that’s going to look like.

I’m interested to know more about the current correction vs. the last couple of corrections to see if we can predict some % losses and timing based on inventory levels.

Every time the cycle corrects everyone is all shocked by it and starts claiming that the sky is falling. Then again… maybe ‘this correction is different’ and we really ARE in a bubble like we’ve never seen before?

Wait a minute…didn’t people say that prices were so high because ‘things are different this time’? But but but…I thought that the bubbleheads said that things were NOT different and that’s why prices can’t stay at these levels? Hmm….

Inventory may be higher now that in any month since January 2000 but isn’t the total housing stock also much higher? By looking at only an absolute inventory amount you’re not taking into account that there are also significantly more housing units (especially since the “bubble” began).

I think it would be much more accurate to look at inventory as a % of total housing units.

the Inventory of SFH in King County dropped below 10,000 units…. guess that’s still “seasonally high”.. on the other hand, nice to see that its not at 20,000. from all the doom and gloom around here it would seem like 20,000 is a possibility… hmmmm..

You’re right. Now it’s only higher than any month from January 2000 through July 2007. (at a minumum, that’s all the records I have) That’s some season. hmmmm..

Reminds me of Chicago in the 70’s…when they started to build further out, past the reach of commuter railroad lines. The employers soon followed, moving further out into the new burbs. Even Sears mostly left the Sears Tower by the early 90’s, with the bulk of the headquarters going to Hoffman Estates, 30 miles outside Chicago.

Just because Seattle is our center of the universe right now, doesn’t mean it will always be. A lot can happen in 30 years while you’re paying off that mortgage.

And now a quote from your article:

“The Australian dollar rose from 85.54 U.S. cents before the rate rise to 85.78 U.S. cents in Sydney by Wednesday’s close.”

It’s about 88 cents today. Pesos indeed.

Current median for homes in Sydney runs a little over $500,000 Australian superdollars.

I know, Seattle is no Sydney.

So for a brand new 2000 sqft home at $255k – $23k = $232k, what does that price tag do to all of the resale older homes that are in the $260k to $325 range?? I sold my 1900 sqft, 8 year old home for $292k last year, glad I did, I think the new owners lost about $60k, if not more!

http://www.quadranthomes.com/agents/

This also shows the typical trends – the furthest commuter burbs (formerly too far to commute) will see the bloodbath first – they always do. Of course, this Quadrant thing still looks to be wishful thinking on their part – they are trolling for the last suckers. You’ve got to wonder what the outyling condo prices are doing. There are some in that same area – the southern extension of Snohomish – that are five miles from I-5. Not too desirable.

Jonny, we’re all in a big mess. Denial makes it worse.

Imagine if we’d increased mortgage interest rates in 2002, stopped hot air blowing up the real estate bubble that popped horribly in 2006, because of our brainless denial?

Australia did that and their currency makes ours look like pesos right now. Home loans are 8.5% in Aussie land right now and their economy is doing better than ours. [even Forbes has a few good news articles...lol]

See the proof:

http://www.forbes.com/markets/2007/08/08/australian-interest-rates-markets-equity-cx_vk_0808markets04.html?partner=links

I would say Portland is about to lose its lunch.

“Renting for another year will allow me to save money for a down payment on a home.”
“Reality is you can buy now! Here’s how!”

Ok, first of all, that first statement which they call a myth is not a myth, of course if you rent something within your budget you’ll be able to save money for a down payment (you might still spend the money, but you could save it). Whereas if you buy their overpriced and depreciating asset you won’t be saving jack except the homebuilder’s ass.

That is a very un-American ad for renting. In a country built on fleecing almost everyone you have posted information that can not be tolerated in the mainstream. For posting this I suspect the real estate gremlins will soon be at your door demanding that you stop exposing their scam truths. Best hunker down and post signs around you declaring that you heart real estate agents. They will believe anything because of their low IQ’s.

Did you see this?

Good information is relegated to a few blogs, and a few honest reporters.

You won’t see this mailing I’ll bet: http://www.nmhc.org/Content/ServeFile.cfm?FileID=4203