Posted by: The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

12 responses to “Welcome 710 KIRO Listeners”

  1. patient

    Congrats to another opportunity to spread the word!
    I listened to it and agree that it was a bit unfortunate that it was so short. It came across as the reason to a likely price fall in Seattle is becuase other markets are falling. A bit of a pity that you didn’t get the chance to touch on the root causes as that the loan standards that made the homes possible to purchase at current prices are no longer available, and will more than likely not return since they are toxic to lenders.

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  2. AndyMiami

    Tim,

    Great job and very smooth delivery. Only suggestion for future interviews, and I am sure they are coming, is that try to use the comparison to Las Vegas, San Diego, and Florida, less with the fact that their price appreciation, and hence projected decreases, were higher than Seattle, and therefore, Seattle will not drop as much as these cities. Instead, look at affordability comparisons. Seattle is ranked by the Fortune (or Forbes?) article as a top five city in terms of how unaffortable Seattle is, using the Price to Rent ratio. So, the chances of similar drops to the truly bubble cities can also occur in our own very bubble.

    Sorry for the ramble and hope this makes sense..

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  3. david losh

    Sorry, I really don’t get it. You have joined the Real Estate cheer leaders.
    No product knowledge, no market knowledge, no crystal ball, but for sure you have an opinion.
    Now that the media is turning to Tim Ellis maybe they are on the right track. Maybe now we can all believe the media is balanced.
    It’s simple, I’ve seen it before and will see it again. The demand for housing units is staggering. Town houses are extremely expensive but people are paying $500K for them even today. Who can those people blame?
    Housing bubble? Did the world population just sink into our oceans due to global warming? Did China’s economy stop growing this past week and we all kinda missed it? Did our government pass a whole bunch of policies this week to prop up the banking industry? Did the banking industry pass a whole bunch of policies to prop up the world credit crisis?
    Sorry, today is business as usual. The rich get richer.

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  4. Tom

    david losh,

    Huh? There’s plenty of numbers generated from all kinds of places on this, and other sites (census, NWMLS, Case-Schiller, etc) which suggest that there is a bubble, and it’s in the process of bursting.

    What data are you using for your position? (no “common sense” without fact please).

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  5. Ray Pepper

    It was short but you got your point across. You are Dead on. 20-30% over the next few years is correct. In fact many homes I have sold recently are 20% off asking price and were in the early stages. Being from Reno Nevada where I can tour you on homes that are vacant from KBH, Lennar, CTX, Landmark etc. with small builders going out of business monthly it is a nightmare. It looks like a plague broke-out and all that is left are the homes. No industry to speak of and foreclosure after foreclosure. Sellers will soon realize that what they thought was the value of their home was in the past. I see no change in 2008 but many many opportunities ahead in the foreclosure market if you are able to secure a loan. The wash out has just begun and it will take many years to stabilize. With the Pacific NW economy remaining robust this 20-30% cap is a fair call. Astute buyers this 2nd time around will make for some very smart purchases ahead.

    Ray Pepper
    Broker
    http://www.500Realty.net

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  6. Eleua

    No product knowledge, no market knowledge, no crystal ball, but for sure you have an opinion.

    I’d like to point out that those that should have been “in the know” over the past few years were the most incorrect, and those of us that are not getting high on our own supply were the ones that were the most accurate.

    Tim has an opinion, and it turns out that it aligns well with reality.

    I do think his call of 20-30% off the peak are somewhat mild, but that’s my opinion. If I’m proven right, we will have bigger problems and nobody will care who is right.

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  7. Buceri

    As always; a plain English piece by an msn money writer (J. Markman). It’s short.

    http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/SuperModels/HowForeignersAreBuyingUpOurBanks.aspx?page=all

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  8. stephen

    Tim,
    Great job. I’ve always thought you have a more level approach than many on this blog. In the two years I’ve been around the blog you have always given value to the home side of buying a house.

    I am so glad I’m not going to be sitting in someone else’s house/apt for the next 5 years waiting for your predicted drop. It may happen, it may not happen. I personally doubt this market will collectively drop over 20% but who knows. In our hunt I saw a ton of houses that were absurdly priced and I wouldn’t be surprised if they drop 50%+. By the time you average all the crap in with decent houses selling right last year and right this maybe 30% will be the number. Fortunately my house is special and will not drop at all (may even appreciate, smile)

    I assume most renters on this blog want to own a house eventually (or why the interest in the blog in the first place) and now is a great time to start kicking tires and doing drive-by’s. We spent 6 months looking and bought at 06 comps in an area that 1) Didn’t rise as much and 2) softened sooner. In this market you might spend a year or more finding both a good deal and nice home.

    I wouldn’t chase the bottom so much as the deal. Do a lot of research and check comps almost weekly for the areas you are looking in.

    My 2 cents worth…

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  9. rafael
  10. bitterowner

    “I wouldn’t chase the bottom so much as the deal.”

    Today’s deal is tomorrow’s overpriced POS.

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  11. Markor

    I wouldn’t chase the bottom so much as the deal. Do a lot of research and check comps almost weekly for the areas you are looking in.

    Great advice methinks. Just being the only bidder in a bear market can be worth 5% off. By the time the masses perceive the bottom, it’s too late.

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  12. Curtis

    Our market has crashed so badly. My husband and I are trying to find a home to buy, but it is scary because the market has gotten so bad. We might never be able to sell it again!

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