Where is that 500Realty guy, he is the only one that has said anything of interest.

I’m not even talking about Issaquah Highlands or Klahanie. I’m talking about “old” Issaquah, Bellevue etc. Houses 1-2 miles from downtown Issaquah are either not selling, or are selling at 2005/2006 prices – about 10-15% off prices earlier this year. This isn’t “fine”, as you state.

Your opinions of the market are not based on the current reality. I’ve actually lived out there, owned a house out there, and follow the market daily. Do you?

“Did everyone on this site buy at the top????”

I’m not even sure where you’re going with this one. You’re new here, right?

Did everyone on this site buy at the top????

This is what everyone in every bubble area thought, before they realized it wasn’t true. Yes, it’s true that outer areas will get hit *first*, but the rot sets in everywhere. When Snoqualmie was getting hit a while back, people were saying that Issaquah and Redmond wouldn’t get hit. “It’s the schools!”, they’d exclaim. Check out Issaquah now. Prices are back to early 2006, even late 2005 in my view – I follow that market closely. Perhaps 10-15% down over there.

West Seattle is a nice area, but it’s just another area caught up in the bubble.

Duplex, congratulations for only ever buying and selling real estate in a market that goes up. You do realize that you’ve never been *in* a down market, right? What experience can you possibly bring to the table that can help you analyze the current situation?

Only in a bubble market. Using the 100 year average of 3% appreciation per year, its about 12.8 years to get to $950k from $650k. During that same time, the $520k mortgage will have cost you $390k. Its always a good time to buy anything for any price, right?

Question for Ray: What is really different about your model then what Redfin offers. Also, I have used full service brokers for most of my transactions. It always burns me to pay that kind of money for a c+ average guy to put a sign up and sit around on a sunday doing an open house and using my bathroom.

You are forgetting something. Prices spiked up to unafordable levels during the bubble because of easy credit. They are coming down now and may go quite a bit lower. In order for “bidding wars” to send them up again you will have to have buyers who QUALIFY for the loans they are getting. Given housing prices vs incomes I just don’t see that as a possibility in the near future.

There are qualified buyers at every price point, even in a bear market. Take a fairly priced house at any price point and drop its price by 20%. You’ll likely get a bidding war on that house.

The masses waiting for a market bottom can make house prices too low, and prone to a spike up.

I would add to the advice about using Craigslist the additional advice that no one with computer skills and free time on the weekends should pay 3% to a Buyer’s Agent in a down market.

I second that. I paid only 0.2% in agent fees to buy the house I’m in escrow on now. If the seller knows your agent didn’t get the full 3%, they’ll tend to think you are underpaying on the house and so the negotiation is harder. Best to write up the contract to show that your agent is getting the 3% and then have the agent rebate you the difference at closing.

Spam and heavy discounts??? Spam? Me signing off with my name and website? I openly asked Tim if I was following proper etiquette. He has yet to reply. What discounts? I don’t consider our pricing heavy discounts. 500 is more then enough to input and service a listing. Over 70% of sellers become Buyers and when they do they have been educated about our 75% Buyer plan. We have a 100% return rate from sellers to buyers.

So much anger toward a different model of real estate. Are you a fellow agent? Mad over my free shirt offer? Either way I apologize. You don’t have to take me to lunch! We will chat again in 2008. Bank it!

Pawn Shop atmosphere? Do you not like our signs? Our building? Me? You will be happy to know 3 more offices are opening in 2008. Kent, Des Moines, and Vancouver.

Merry Xmas Bubblers!

Ray Pepper
Broker
http://www.500Realty.net

1 question to the board here. Anyone have input on this Nouveau Riche University? We found a seller buried in a home through this University.

My trepidation triples.

Sure, I could be wrong, but your first impression and your office’s pawn-shop atmosphere make my rational brain scream “run!”

But for you I’m running a special. **1 free T shirt**. Normally you have to get one at the Seattle Home Show, Tacoma Home Show, or Puyallup Fair. But, for you FREE. But theres a catch. You must come meet me in person, shake my hand, and buy me lunch. !!

Great Board Tim. Just the right amount of statistics, titillation, and comedy acts.

Ray Pepper
Broker
http://www.500Realty.net

that’s how you know its good!

The days of extremely asymetric listing information are gone and so should the 6% commission. I prepare these offers for buyers all the time for a flat fee of 800 bucks (plus handle negotiations and the buyers transaction all the way through closing). It works.

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So is it fundamental that a median household wage earner be able to buy a house in Seattle provided they have the 20% down payment? If so is that a median price home? Who makes these decisions?

Your model might be sound.

But I question whether it would be smart to hire someone who thinks spending time spamming a site where the posters generally think the market is about to tank, and everyone is screaming in a high-pitched whine not to even think of purchasing.

If your business model was built on loyalty, referrals and repeat costumers, it might make sense to try and make a name for yourself on a site like this, as we will likely be buying down the road.

But yours is not that kind of model.

I have to conclude you are very likely, how should i put it…

..um, brain-cell challenged.

I wouldn’t hire you if you gave me 120% back, because I’d be too worried you’d screw up the purchase.

Ray Pepper
Broker
http://www.500Realty.net

I heard verbally Boeing brought in a batch of new hires for like $10/hr [sounds like a "Welcome to Walmart" job] and didn’t pay them for the all day orientation they had to go to too. Has Boeing become a low paid service economy AL’s Auto now, they manufacture hardly nothing anymore, they just stock foreign parts?

Its not on the MSM news.

Hades, you can’t even access SPEEA anymore without a password to get recent salary information. I hear every time a SPEEA President signs a Boeing union contract, Boeing gives ‘em a high paid management job. Coincidence? I doubt it.

KOMO, KING and KIRO don’t tell Seattle the truth, that this present low paid service economy is killing the local real estate market.

I’d also add, God forbid the higher paid Seattle area Baby Boomers ever retire and put all their homes on the market at once to down size. The realitors better hope the Baby Boomers work until they die, or real estate will likely take a severe and fatal blow. Am I wrong?

I bumped into a buddy of mine at a college reunion last May. He had bought a house in San Diego the previous year and had then put $60K into a remodel. When he had it reappraised just about the time of the reunion, the price was exactly the same as when he had bought it. Oops. He’s financially secure enough to laugh at himself, but he wasn’t exactly happy about it.

[If you are a seller why would you pay anyone 3500 to List?? When you can pay 500 and get the same results? We just have far less overhead !! And 0 DEBT!]
By this same logic, I should avoid all of you and buy/sell through craigslist?

500k home with Red you get $9900.
With 500 Realty you get $11250.00
If you are a seller why would you pay anyone 3500 to List?? When you can pay 500 and get the same results? We just have far less overhead !! And 0 DEBT!

Hope that answers your question! Red Fin paved the way for many more models coming down the pipe. We Thank Allen and Scultz for helping us educate Washington State!

Ray Pepper
Broker
http://www.500Realty.net

1999 called, they want their animated GIFS and clipart back.

Serious question: Why not just use Redfin?

If this is true then the overall numbers will start reflecting this soon. I assume when the drops start showing up time/post will be spent examining the new market and advise on how to approach it….

Gee I could afford to buy Cisco in 2000. Was that the best time to buy?

I can afford to buy a house in Detroit today! I can even pay cash! Is that a good idea?

The best time to buy any investment (and a house is an investment whether you live in it or rent it out) is when the fundamentals are attractive. And the fundamentals for housing still look pretty ugly today. Prices have a lot farther to fall.

Is there an elephant in the living room?

Prices could decline 25% and then there be bidding wars again. What spikes down is more likely to spike up.”

You are forgetting something. Prices spiked up to unafordable levels during the bubble because of easy credit. They are coming down now and may go quite a bit lower. In order for “bidding wars” to send them up again you will have to have buyers who QUALIFY for the loans they are getting. Given housing prices vs incomes I just don’t see that as a possibility in the near future. Throw in the restrictions that lenders are putting on themselves and those the government is proposing the age of real estate hyper inflation is over for now.

That is the reality for the next 2 years or so. BUT

The only thing that can cause a price spike is if overall inflation goes crazy. I happen to think that is a real possibility after the next election. Of course an inflation driven price spike means that your real estate investment will be lucky to stay even in buying power.

On the other hand the big advantage of owning (with a fixed rate loan) before inflation takes off is that you will have a low interest loan in a high interest world and you will be paying back expensive dollars with cheap ones.

Right now my opinion is that late 2008 or early 2009 will be the time to buy. Prices will have finally come down to where they belong (based in incomes in any given market) and interest rates won’t go much higher before the election. Anything after that will be dependent on who wins and what actions they take.

Ray Pepper
Broker
http://www.500Realty.net

*** The fact is many of you will NOT be able to buy now and thats the fact you must face. *** You must wait for you will have no other choice.

Pretty presumptuous statement coming from a Realtor trying to flip a singlewide.

http://redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=961032

you got rid of that trailer yet?

Can you please provide the various scenarios where this investment “strategy” will work and how that aligns to now and the future?

If you are financially able to buy in the next couple years at prices that will be lower then I applaud your financial success. We know prices are coming down. They are ALREADY down 15-20% on every deal I have worked on. Two are down over 33%. But, to estimate that you will be better off in 3 years is foolish. You may stumble upon that seller that MUST sell next month. If he/she has to or face foreclosure you may have just nailed your bottom.

I feel many people are making themselves “feel better” by saying they are going to wait. The best time to buy is always when you can financially afford to do so. If its now, 2008, or 2009 your timing could not be better.

Lastly, Tim. I enjoy this site and all the opinions and rhetoric. I sign off all my posts with my name, title, and company. If this is wrong, please ask me to stop!! My company was built for the consumer and I’m very proud to offer the best deal in the Nation . But. I have never discussed my company until this post, as a reply.

I live and breathe real estate but I do not know all the aspects of Blogging etiquette. Please correct me publicly or advise me to continue posting as I do.

Ray Pepper
Broker
http://www.500Realty.net

Housing blulls like Angie, Markor, and Nostra"golly"us live in their own reality and are not swayed by fact, history, trends, or logical arguments.

I would hardly label myself a housing bull given that I think a depression is a distinct possibility. A prudent investor considers all contingencies.

yep. for me, a reasonable price is fairly close to cash flow neutral. that’s at least 30-40% again.

Look, during the heady days of the bubble, changes were very consistent. You cannot rationally expect behavior very much different on the way down. Of course, it will over correct, but a true spike is not terribly likely.

In many markets behavior on the way down is much sharper than on the way up. I think we’ve seen that in the last 3 months, during which time selling prices have fallen 10 to 20%. If,say, they fell to 30% off the peak by summer, I would think a 10% or so spike up (over a few months) more likely than not, even if it’s not retained in the long run.

Like 20% lower…which will be about where prices were when you started this blog? ;)

I’m probably going to be up to my eyebrows in holidays and kids for a few weeks. Hope y’all have a good Christmas, and I’ll be back to tease you in the new year.

Bidding Wars….?

To do that “cool block”, put “

” and “

” around it, minus the space.