Jethro Tull reference

I you don’t like it, why are you writing back? This thread is like, way old…

I don’t get the brick reference, but, maybe I’m just think ( as a …)

It was a statement relating the fact that property taxes will never go down in Seattle (even with lower valuations) to the fact that there are too many left-wingers in the area.

That is all I am saying – it is not rocket science, and I would not call the absolute truth “a characterization” You are one dense dude, Ben.

Of course I don’t like the left-wing. Who in his right mind does? I will not go into details about this on the blog about Seattle Housing Prices. Get back to the eastside, Ben, and call it a day.

Everybody could tell on your first post that you don’t like the political left. Nobody cares.

Man, I HATE to have to write 4 or 5 posts to finally get a simple point across.

And I have been trying to follow your posts. Sorry, but you do sprinkle so much hate for certain entities into your posts that they are hard to follow.

If your point was that local governments as a whole tend to never lower taxes, I would have wholeheartedly agreed with you.

“I have no idea why these idiots are giving McManus a hard time for bringing up politics – this entire housing bubble deal has a lot of politics underlying it.”

OK, I apologize for that one. I need to find better wording.

Ben, you can’t comprehend a series of posts, can you?

The talk was about the bubble, but then went on to what the deal would be when places were re-appraised, as it’d only be right at least (as a consolation to some homeowners) your taxes would go down.

That’s when McManus posted his correct thoughts on the negative possibility of said decreases due to , uhhh, the things that you don’t want to think about. Nobody wrote anything about the property tax differences being any kind of factor in the whole housing price/availability situation.

So, I think ,in your paragraph above, you are confusing cause/effect on my part.

I’ll give you a pass on the grammar this time. No, even as a stand-up guy, you should stand up for what you believe in. That is, on this blog, I would not just add a random political comment, cause, as we know, it is a blog on the Seattle Housing bubble. However, when Dave explained why taxes won’t go down. you start to go ape-s__t. Don’t keep doing that.

No, I don’t hate you, but you’ve just got to read the posts above to see the sequence of the posts, and I’m not gonna let you lie about it, period.

I was giving McManus a hard time about bringing up politics, and you said people giving him a hard time were idiots:

“I have no idea why these idiots are giving McManus a hard time for bringing up politics – this entire housing bubble deal has a lot of politics underlying it.”

Mr McManus was gracious enough to sense the mood that political discussion was unwelcome, and he offered to cease and did so. I wish that you would follow his example because you act like you are trying to turn SeattleBubble into a bad episode of CNN Crossfire. Frankly, I feel bad making it sound like he is anything like you because he sounds like a stand up kind of guy.

I won’t argue the rest of your points because it sounds like pointless foam-mouthed political drivel mixed in with something to do with property taxes. That is the problem with your posts IMO – you spend too much time hating on your political enemies and not enough getting to the point. I don’t care what strange grammar related insults you make to me, I won’t fail to point it out because I like this blog and your behavior threatens it. I know I am not the only one with this opinion too.

If your conjecture is that property taxes have anything to do with the bubble, I think that makes no sense at all. In Redmond at least, the property assessments have been slow to catch up to real sales prices. The payments on the overly inflated houses dwarf any tax implications.

For the record, I think that the biggest real estate related legislation issues in the area are:

Developers having to average 7000sqft per lot
CAO (this might be behind the first point, not sure)

However, this legislation appears to push development further out (which it was meant to stop) or creates bad value for new housing (because there are now developers who have to make 3000sqft lots to make up for all of the normal sized lots that they made). I am not sure that it drove prices up any, just changed what has been built.

“To be clear, I don’t mind a discussion of how legislation affects housing prices. I just don’t like people spouting foamy mouthed crap about how dumb liberals/conservatives/democrats/republicans are. Once you bring that debate here, it spreads like a disease and kills productive discussion. Like it has started to do.”

Dude, complete sentences OK? Not like that last one of mine (possibly no subject, no verb). Same with that one. OK, that last one of mine at least has an implied subject. That one was perfect. Got it. (oops, dang)

Anyhoo, I wasn’t calling you an idiot – I just mentioned that only an idiot would believe that left-wingers would ever lower taxes. I would not put you in that category, as you seem to know something about … ummm … eastside real estate.

I think the topic at one point was about assesments and whether millage would go up to compensate for values (assessed or market) going down. That is what brought up the fact that since Seattle/King County is full of left wing bleeding-heart s(oops “people who are liberal with other people’s money”, to be PC), there will be no property tax decreases. Not. A’Gonna. Happen.

So, don’t start a subject without expecting the answer to bust your “seattlebubble”.

I think that your data shows what I am feeling around the Eastside. There is a sizeable quantity of people (probably around 20% – 25%) who can afford housing on the Eastside.

There are many more who purchased here before the prices were silly. Plenty of folks in 500+k homes who purchased them when they were in the 200s.

What is ironic is, whoever did not buy a SFH on the Eastside back in 2002/2003 feels like they were priced out forever. I hope that they are wrong.

I saw that you said you were dropping the politics talk and I for one appreciate the gesture. I welcome your input about RE.

And no, this is not sarcasm. I think some folks are being a bit rough on you now.

There are thousands of people working in Redmond that make more than 120k a year, even before bonuses.

This got me to wondering about income distributions in Redmond, so I checked the census data. Unfortunately Redmond’s is old (1999) but there is 2006 data for Seattle, Bellevue, Kent, Everett, and Tacoma. Figuring Bellevue to be fairly similar to Redmond, here’s some numbers:

50,000 households
34% (17000) have over $100,000 income
9% (4500) have over $200,000 income
$76,800 median household income
$102,500 mean household income

Using a traditional 3:1 price:income borrowing limit, it doesn’t seem like there’s a really huge market for $600k plus houses in Bellevue. A quick look at RedFin shows a LOT of houses priced well over $600k in the Bellevue/Redmond area. It does seem like $300k-$600k houses would be in hot demand, but those are comparitively scarce – especially below $500k.

Hey McManus, this blog used to be a bit of fun to read and respond to, but you seem to have hijacked it. I’m done. Thanks a lot.

Bah, he’s a lot better than the RE industry trolls/cheerleaders who’d swear on their e-bible that there was no bubble, and were screaming that 2007 was a great time to buy, no need to worry, prices will go back up up up in 2008.

Oddly enough they all went away.

Reply – Quote

My point. Wait and wait and wait. But, always look. Always. There is always a deal but you must find it. There will be more in 2008 and 2009.

Excellent point, Ray. There are deals for those with the means to buy without fully financing the home. That doesn’t change the fact that the bulk of Seattle is still woefully overpriced for the people who live here, though.

Good luck with your purchase.

Agree with what? I speak the truth about everything and offer the Best Deal in the nation! What specifically do you not agree with?

Don’t buy if you dont want to!

Wait and Wait but always look. Always! I’m not buying anything either until my price point hits. Patience. They are coming down friends! But, there will be many opportunities in 2008 and 2009.

**** I know when it comes time for you to buy you will remember me. *** If you don’t YOU LOSE!..Not me.

Ray Pepper
Broker
http://www.500Realty.net

Who thinks he has destroyed this blog?
Who thinks he is just speaking his mind?”

Guys, I said I would drop the politics and talk about RE. Or am I just banned from talking about RE too?

Who thinks he has destroyed this blog?
Who thinks he is just speaking his mind?

;)

2. You feel guilty throwing aluminum cans or paper in the trash.

3. Use the statement ’sun break’ and know what it means.

4. You know more than 10 ways to order coffee.

5 You know more people who own boats than air conditioners.

6. You feel overdressed wearing a suit to a nice restaurant.

7. You stand on a deserted corner in the rain waiting for the ‘WALK’ signal.

8. You consider that if it has no snow or has not recently erupted, it’s not a real mountain.

9. You can taste the difference between Starbucks, Seattle’s Best, and Veneto’s.

10. You know the difference between Chinook, Coho and Sockeye salmon.

11. You know how to pronounce Sequim, Puyallup, Issaquah, Oregon, Yakima and Willamette.

12. You consider swimming an indoor sport.

13. You can tell the difference between Japanese, Chinese and Thai food.

14. In winter, you go to work in the dark and come home in the dark while only working eight-hour days.

15. You never go camping without waterproof matches and a poncho.

16. You are not fazed by ‘Today’s forecast: showers followed by rain,’ and ‘Tomorrow’s forecast: rain followed by showers.’

17 You have no concept of humidity without precipitation.

18. You know that Boring is a town in Oregon and not just a state of mind.

19. You can point to at least two volcanoes, even if you cannot see through the cloud cover.

20. You notice, ‘The mountain is out’ when it is a pretty day and you can actually see it.

21. You put on your shorts when the temperature gets above 50, but still wear your hiking boots and parka.

22. You switch to your sandals when it gets about 60, but keep the socks on.

23. You have actually used your mountain bike on a mountain.

24. You think people who use umbrellas are either wimps or tourists.

25. You buy new sunglasses every year, because you cannot find the old ones after such a long time.

26. You measure distance in hours.

27. You often switch from ‘heat’ to ‘a/c’ in the same day.

28. You design your kid’s Halloween costume to fit under a raincoat.

29. You know all the important seasons: Almost Winter, winter, Still Raining (Spring), Road Construction (Summer), Deer & Elk season (Fall).

30. You actually understood these jokes and will probably forward them.

My point. Wait and wait and wait. But, always look. Always. There is always a deal but you must find it. There will be more in 2008 and 2009.

The caveat is I can get booted on the 190k home. The Agent called me today that it had 5 showings…Even with a SOLD sign and a pending status people are looking for homes under 200k. Hes doing all he can do preserve his 2% commission. He gets 3% to list. His 2% through me is a bonus. Buyers must sign off that if a better offer comes along up and until the day of closing they can reject mine. Thats the Foreclosure game. (But, I do get a credit back on my appraisal). Either way is fine with me. I do not get in bidding wars. EVER.

Ray Pepper
Broker
http://www.500Realty.net

Creative financing and ever appreciating real estate values make median income and affordability irrelevant issues, dontcha know?

Step onto the home equity escalator and ride on up to infinite riches! What could go wrong?

“There are thousands of people working in Redmond that make more than 120k a year, even before bonuses.

The problem is that most of them already have houses, or make way more than 120k and therefore expect better than a 7000 sq ft lot and a spec home”

True, and what’s more these people will likely not prop up the East-side market. If prices for higher end homes start dropping in surrounding areas then at some point it will be to much of a premium to pay to live in Redmond, etc. With all these new high rise condos in Bellevue, it will take quite a lot of these MS super-stars to hold prices up. I just don’t think that there are enough of those folks to make that kind of impact, since, as you point out, they also have to be in “in the market”, I think if there is a “shock” to the market in the spring / summer for instance, it could put a big damper any remaining momentum on the eastside. This local market will be one of the most interesting to watch in the new year. If it goes down considerably, then other areas don’t stand much of a chance.

The problem is that most of them already have houses, or make way more than 120k and therefore expect better than a 7000 sq ft lot and a spec home.

Another factor is that even reading MSM now you can see that housing is not a sure bet to go up all of the time.

Despite all of this, they are still posting sales in the Eastside. I cannot fathom how it can seem reasonable to pay 800k for a house slightly larger than your average family home from the 80s, but enough people are paying for them to prop it up.

My biggest fear is that there is enough cash on the Eastside to just create a very long cycle with mostly flat prices, because folks just decide not to sell for 5 more years. The small number of foreclosures are eaten up by the people who want to live close to Redmond.

According to some people on this blog that is lower middle class kind of money and most people have several hundred thousand in their bank accounts and make 7-10k a month. So many of those people roam around the King County area that there is no way the bubble will ever pop, especially on the Eastside.

10K per month = 120K per year and just the house payment is 36% of their income. That’s not counting any other debts that they have. 120K per year is lower middle class? I would imagine then, that the county median income should be somewhere around 100K.

I don’t disagree with your assessment that there will be relative ‘deals’ in the next 3 years, but Seattle’s core housing prices are still so out of whack with how much people here make, it’s not even funny. A median income family in Dayton can easily afford an above-median house; a median income family in Seattle needs exotic loans to be able to buy a studio condo anywhere in Seattle proper.

David McManus said,
For the record that’s 140K in cold hard cash for a 700K home. Jumbo rates on Bankrate.com 6.71% so that’s is $3617 per month PI.

Guess they better be millionaires or DINKs!

According to some people on this blog that is lower middle class kind of money and most people have several hundred thousand in their bank accounts and make 7-10k a month. So many of those people roam around the King County area that there is no way the bubble will ever pop, especially on the Eastside.

The community is all new within a golf course community. They rent easily for 1000. There just is not a very high surplus of rentals there. Many Carson City Folk move there because they want the peace full bliss of Legado and the golfing. I’m not a golfer though.

The new ones available now that are the same model are 240k minus a 10k concession. 230k bottom line. they wont budge. But, this home has all the upgrades and a full patio and all the landscaping done in front and back. A no brainer at 190k. I already have 1 rental in there I bought for 168k. 5 in Fallon 50 miles east. They all rent easily because they are new.

2008-2010 will provide many such deals like this. patience, patience, patience. This home went into foreclosure a year ago. Finally they placed it on the mkt. Always be looking. The "golly" AGENT wont give me 75% of his commission though. And I found the HOME!. Hes not a fan of our model!

Ray Pepper
Broker
http://www.500Realty.net

Guess they better be millionaires or DINKs!

When did it sell for 169K? Was it new then? Are there a lot of new homes on the market now? What is the inventory like? What is the rental vacancy rate? Do you have a renter lined up?

The only thing I know of out that way are whorehouses.

At least that’s a growth industry!

Prediction…many out of work REIC move to the Carson City area to become legal prostitutes.

Dayton BOOMS!

Ray Peppers house sells for MILLIONS in 2013!

4 year old home in Dayton Nevada.

Home hit a high of 292k 2.3 years ago.
Originally Sold for 169k.
Listed at 227k .
All comparable comps are on the market for 249-265

My Offer 188k plus 3k seller credit towards closing.
Counter 194k from Bank. no concession
My Counter 188k plus 3k credit towards closing.
FINAL COUNTER FROM BANK 190k 2k concession

I accept! Home is 1400 sq feet and needs nothing. I had the Agent sign a seperate addendum that he would have the carpets cleaned professionally and have the home meticulously cleaned as well, out of his commission. DONE!

Just another Rental that averages 1100 month income. Nice gated community. Did I hit the bottom? Maybe? If I didn’t I’m close enough! Lets check back in 5 years. I suggest it will be 250k or higher. Not bad returns!

Ray Pepper
Broker
http://www.500Realty.net

http://www.forbes.com/2008/01/02/national-city-bank-biz-wallst-cx_lm_0102nationalcity.html?partner=yahootix

Any predictions for where WM will be 3 months from now?

As for price drops, it seems builders are banking on incentives. Buchan is providing $100 K worth of incentive on houses priced greater than $1.2 M, membership to a private jet club.

http://rismedia.com/wp/2007-12-19/taking-home-buyers-sky-high/

Sector Snap: Homebuilders Slip

Homebuilder Stocks Decline After Residential Construction Spending Falls in November

…..Builders have recorded major losses in the past year as they contended with declining home prices and sales, plus ballooning supplies of unsold homes. The disrupted credit markets have diminished the pool of qualified home buyers, and a spike in foreclosures has dumped more supply onto the market.
.
Most economists believe the housing slump will last through 2008, forcing builders to further slash prices on already built homes and sharply curb construction plans….

None of the big builders seem to be doing anything like 10% price drops yet. I have seen some 2-3% drops on new homes from some builders, though. Are they just dropping the prices without advertising it?

Education hill in Redmond still has a bunch of new home inventory up there, around the $750k – $1000k range. These places seem too small and too cheap for the Microsoft folks that have already struck it rich, but still too expensive for the rest of the MS folks. So who is going to buy them?

I am in a position where I know that prices are falling down, but I want to live in a bigger place than the townhouse I own and I hate to rent. I figure that as my current place depreciates and other properties in the same area depreciate, that things should get cheaper over time. But inventory is the problem.

There is a difference between pointing out what politicians are doing in general, and using the blog comments as a platform for you to hate on a particular party or individual.

Thanks for calling me an idiot BTW. It really raises the quality of discourse.

To be clear, I don’t mind a discussion of how legislation affects housing prices. I just don’t like people spouting foamy mouthed crap about how dumb liberals/conservatives/democrats/republicans are. Once you bring that debate here, it spreads like a disease and kills productive discussion. Like it has started to do.