Seattle Bubble

• Poll: Is it ethical for a home debtor to “walk away” from a mortgage?
• Poll: How far will Seattle’s Case-Shiller HPI fall from the July ‘07 peak?
• Poll: Which is Most Likely for the Economy?
• Poll: What is your current housing status?
• Poll: What characteristic of a home is most important to you?

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56 responses so far ↓

• 1 RottedOak // Jan 6, 2008 at 12:52 pm

  You didn’t include “pink ponies” as a option on your poll! I can’t imagine anything more specialer about Seattle than the pretty pink ponies that parade down the streets every day.

• 2 David McManus // Jan 6, 2008 at 12:58 pm

  You forgot to include Washington Mutual, the greatest bank ever, with Boeing and Microsoft.

• 3 Matthew // Jan 6, 2008 at 12:59 pm

  AMZ, WAMU, Boeing, and MS.

• 4 Ben // Jan 6, 2008 at 12:59 pm

  I was going to say that lower crime than a place like SD or LA was a special attribute of Seattle, but our downtown seems to be turning into a cesspool and it is nowhere near worth a premium in real estate.

  Especially when you could probably move to a nice small to medium city in a flyover state somewhere and have next to no crime as well. Good paying jobs is all that stops an exodus to these places IMO.

• 5 Matthew // Jan 6, 2008 at 1:04 pm

  How easily people in Seattle have forgotten 2001-2002 and how it decimated this region. If people around here think that the incoming recession won’t affect the job market in Seattle they are obviously willfully ignorant.

• 6 budbrad // Jan 6, 2008 at 1:14 pm

  Matthew- You are missing the point on the post dot-com era. Many of those dot-com casualties took their unemployment checks and worker retraining benefits and parlayed them into real estate licenses.

  The bubble just shifted from “dot-com” to real estate. Next it will shift to biotech/green/etc. Rinse and repeat.

• 7 somebody // Jan 6, 2008 at 1:17 pm

  what a pathetic poll!

• 8 MisterBubble // Jan 6, 2008 at 1:39 pm

  I was going to put my checkmark next to “delusional, smug people”, but I couldn’t seem to find it in the list.

  Mind fixing that?

• 9 Lionel // Jan 6, 2008 at 1:39 pm

  “I was going to say that lower crime than a place like SD or LA was a special attribute of Seattle”

  West LA is certainly as safe as Seattle. Since moving here, I’ve met more people directly affected by crime (break-ins, car theft) than I did in LA. This is, of course, a very personal perspective and might not extrapolate well.

• 10 disbelief // Jan 6, 2008 at 1:52 pm

  You forgot Seattle’s indisputable standing as an enlightened city - a veritable cultural mecca!

• 11 Mark L // Jan 6, 2008 at 3:37 pm

  I think “running out of land” really has some merit for King County especially - with all of the “improve my property values since I am already in” land use restrictions and the geographical features - water and mountains. Yet I sense it was put in the poll as a joke.

• 12 Ira Sacharoff // Jan 6, 2008 at 6:38 pm

  Seattle’s most important attribute?
  Why, it’s the delightful weather we have from late September through mid June.

• 13 Joel // Jan 6, 2008 at 6:57 pm

  No option for 500Realty? What a joke of a poll!

• 14 Scotsman // Jan 6, 2008 at 6:59 pm

  Gotta be the water!

  Water in the lakes, water in the Sound, water in the sky, water on the road, water squishing underfoot in my lawn, water tracked into the house and car, water, water, everywhere, and not a drop of sun!!

• 15 deejayoh // Jan 6, 2008 at 7:11 pm

  I think “running out of land” really has some merit for King County especially - with all of the “improve my property values since I am already in” land use restrictions and the geographical features - water and mountains. Yet I sense it was put in the poll as a joke.

  Pretty sure it is a joke. I think Seattle has one of the lowest urban population densities of any major city. Thus the mayor’s recent changes in height limits, etc. Lots more opportunity for infill, rezoning, etc than most places.

• 16 John_ // Jan 6, 2008 at 7:22 pm

  Running out of land is not a limiting factor. The greater Seattle area (and adjoining counties) have plenty of land.

  What can influence the market is an over abundance of intrusive building regulations. It’s an artificial growth limiter, making many buidable lots artificially unbuilder, or to expensive to build on.

  i.e. cannot subdivide large parcels, excessive wetland setbacks, overly restrictive septic requirements adding 20k of costs onto development, et cetera.

• 17 Mama // Jan 6, 2008 at 7:45 pm

  What about traffic? As someone who spends half my day sitting on either side of the 520 bridge I can’t see why that’s not on the list. I voted for MS/Boeing since I guess traffic is mostly due to commuters to those places.

• 18 Plissken // Jan 6, 2008 at 8:07 pm

  Some people here need to get out and see the world. I cannot believe there are people retarded enough to complain about the weather.

  Our winters are mild enough that my bills for a properly insulated SFH stay under $130 / month (that’s gas AND electricity).

  Summers can be beautiful and bearable all at the same time (nothing that 2 or 3 fans strategically placed cannot handle).

  We’re not at risk for a major drought. No hurricanes, wildfires, tornadoes. The big storm we got last year is pretty much as bad as it gets and that was the worst it got in 15 years or so.

  Sure, there might be stuff to complain about but the weather ain’t it.

• 19 AndySeattle // Jan 6, 2008 at 8:19 pm

  FWIW I chose Other mostly attributed to the weather. Mild during every season is rather nice.

  All in all I think Seattle has great people and great resources all around. But frankly I think that can be found nearly anywhere. At least here in the PNW we get a slice of each season and without weather that could kill us with the extreme hots or colds. Not bad really.

• 20 Eleua // Jan 6, 2008 at 8:48 pm

  I’m with Mr. Bubble.

  Smug homeowners are, by far, our most special quality.

• 21 Peckhammer // Jan 6, 2008 at 8:50 pm

  “We’re not at risk for a major drought. No hurricanes, wildfires, tornadoes.

  You forgot about landslides, volcanoes, and of course, those pesky earthquakes. We live in the most seismically dangerous place in the contiguous United States.

• 22 Ray Pepper // Jan 6, 2008 at 8:59 pm

  Seattles most special attributes?? Well Joel of course my vote is for 500, Dick’s, Pagliacci, and all those Teriyaki Joints. I also Love jogging Greenlake and those stairs from the parking lot at Montlake up to the UW. I haven’t done either for 15 years because of Dicks, Pagliacci, and all those Teriyaki Joints.

  Ray Pepper
  Broker
  http://www.500Realty.net

• 23 Josh Mahar // Jan 6, 2008 at 9:30 pm

  I feel like the whole sarcasm about how were not special is getting kind of old. Honestly, we ARE special. Were special in that people actually WANT to live here. Regardless of why, I know "golly" more than a few die-hard PNWers around here, myself included. This isn’t Detroit or Pittsburgh where people live there ONLY because of the job market. Sure, the problems that are hitting the rest of the country will hit us, but they will be mild and managable, just like the weather we have. In fact, they will be great for all of us looking to buy a house in the not super distant future.

  Actually one of my favorite comments by one of my friends around here was, “THANK GOD FOR THE WEATHER!” and I think thats so true. I think the fact that the weather can be pretty glum is one of the few factors keeping people from flocking here.

• 24 Cougar // Jan 6, 2008 at 9:36 pm

  We are the originator of GREEN! We are the Emerald City in the Evergreen State that glistens in the liquid sunshine. Honorable mention; JP Patches, Wanda Wanda and Ivar Haglund.

• 25 Matt_in_TX // Jan 6, 2008 at 9:42 pm

  Cheap electricity. I pay 14.5 cents/kW hr in Texas, and it is disgusting oil-based electricity.

• 26 Plissken // Jan 6, 2008 at 9:51 pm

  You forgot about landslides, volcanoes, and of course, those pesky earthquakes.

  I’ll give you the landslides (although I’m not sure how bad it really is). Volcanoes and quakes have nothing to do with the weather though.

• 27 popcorn // Jan 6, 2008 at 11:04 pm

  Yes, landslides can be a serious problem. Many Seattle slopes and bluffs are highly prone to landslides - due to geology, weather, and water. Learn about landslides before buying real estate in these areas. Consider hiring a geologist to do a site visit.

  Landslide links to check out:

  http://www.ecy.wa.gov/programs/sea/landslides/

  http://www.dnr.wa.gov/geology/pugetls.htm
  http://www.cses.washington.edu/cig/outreach/classes/585/files/IK_whitepaper.pdf

• 28 crystalball // Jan 6, 2008 at 11:19 pm

  With all of the heavy rain this winter we can expect an increase in landslides.

  A million dollar home in Olympia had a landslide in December 2007 and is a total loss. It is now condemned as unsafe to live in. This is a result of the heavy rains we had recently.

  ARTICLE FROM “THE OLYMPIAN” — Before he put his $1 million, 2,600-square-foot waterfront “dream house” on the market last summer, Bob Hyde spent $250,000 on new hardwood floors, kitchen tile, a new balcony and a paint job. But the morning of Dec. 3, when Hyde awoke after a night of heavy rain, he found his investment slipping away into the bay.

  http://www.theolympian.com/news/story/300391.html

  The owner still has the house for sale on Zillow for $500K. Buyer beware! Under “What the Owner Loves about this house” it says this: “House virtually destroyed in December landslide. Will consider offers on land.”

  http://www.zillow.com/HomeDetails.htm?zprop=49414098

• 29 Matthew // Jan 7, 2008 at 1:33 am

  http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20051231/news_lz1n31seattle.html

  “About 10 percent of Seattle-area residents suffer from a severe case of SAD during the shortest days of the year and have thoughts that life isn’t worth living, says David Avery, a psychiatry and behavioral sciences professor at the University of Washington. As many as 20 percent more residents sleep longer in winter, have trouble waking and exhibit lower energy.

  In northern climates from Scandinavia to Canada, the lack of sunlight during the shortest days of the year has been linked to increased rates of depression, suicide and alcoholism. Seattle is located at 47 degrees latitude, closer to the North Pole than Toronto or Boston. ”

  Plissken,

  I’ve lived all over the U.S. (midwest, northeast, south, west coast) and visited Asia, Europe, and South America, and yes while the weather here can be deemed as not very extreme, the lack of sunshine is downright depressing.

  I would take a bonechilling freezing day with bright sunshine before I would take a dark, damp, 42 degree overcast day.

• 30 Runs With Scissors // Jan 7, 2008 at 4:16 am

  I would not say Seattle is so special, perhaps as I would WA state. Seattle benefits from being really the only city worth mentioning in the State to live. WA attractiveness does merit metioning from the no state income tax stanpoint, as well as being the last state prior to exodus into Canada ;-)

• 31 economist // Jan 7, 2008 at 4:54 am

  I was going to put my checkmark next to “delusional, smug people”, but I couldn’t seem to find it in the list.

  Sorry, Vancouver (BC) has exclusive rights to that category in this region.

• 32 johnnybigspenda // Jan 7, 2008 at 7:25 am

  We just love the fact that we can fly down some magazine photo worthy NW singletrack on our mtn bikes and then be back in time for a sushi dinner and a few drinks in the city… same goes for skiing and hiking. Gotta love it.

• 33 johnnybigspenda // Jan 7, 2008 at 7:35 am

  Ever snow shoed in Eastern WA after a 12″ powdery snow fall? Ever cross country skied up at the pass when its only you and your wife? Ever hit the north side at Crystal in waist deep powder (before they opened that new lift)? Ever completed the STP? Ever done the Kirkland sprint tri? The St.Patty’s day dash? Eat lunch at the top of Mt Si? Watch a sunset from West Seattle beach? The beer fest? (which reminds me, our beer scene is GREAT)…. the list goes on… Seattle is AWESOME.

• 34 WestSideBilly // Jan 7, 2008 at 7:41 am

  I would take a bonechilling freezing day with bright sunshine before I would take a dark, damp, 42 degree overcast day.

  I’d rather be outside with a jacket and a flashlight than stuck inside admiring the sunshine, unable to actually be in the sunshine because my face would freeze within 15 seconds of stepping out the door. To each their own, though. ;-)

• 35 afferent input // Jan 7, 2008 at 9:52 am

  Ponies all the way! They make Seattle the mostest specialist place evah!

• 36 Tsuru // Jan 7, 2008 at 10:07 am

  Regarding the weather - I recently had some blood work done, and it turns out that my vitamin D levels were practically non-existent. I guess the fact that the sun disappears for six months out of the year isn’t allowing my body to produce any vitamin D on it’s own. So, my doctor prescribed a month’s worth of vitamin D megadoses and I have to take one a month subsequently.

  I’d suggest that just about everyone who works indoors in Seattle go have their D levels checked.

• 37 jeffrey // Jan 7, 2008 at 10:23 am

  Seattles the sweetest…I moved out here for the Weather…40-45 plus rain in the Winter is perfect Then 75 and High Pressure in the Summer…

  Matthew - If your SAD then maybe the midwest or eastcoast would be better for you. My parents live in Boston and it is miserable….We call it “Bittah Cold” and it is really bad…Plus you gotta pay for OIL to heat your house there…

  Also, Look at these sick base levels…
  Alpental at Snoqualmie 91-108 in

  I can get to the Double Black Diamonds in under 30 Minutes…

• 38 CalifornianWhoBoughtRE // Jan 7, 2008 at 10:26 am

  Man, what a bunch of whiners. You guys must be a blast at parties.

  Go try and live in Los Angeles or the midwest or the south or the north east and then come back and tell us how much Seattle sucks.

• 39 softwarengineer // Jan 7, 2008 at 10:37 am

  LOOKS LIKE BOEING AND MICROSOFT ARE THE TOP ATTRIBUTE PICK

  Better add defense spending. In the 80s Boeing was about a 20% defense employment base. Today, Boeing has a 50% defense employment base.

  Without defense spending, will the last one turn off the lights. I imagine local Microsoft sales is similarily related, like to defense businesses buying MSFT software needs in Seattle.

  Manufacturing all went east.

• 40 Brian // Jan 7, 2008 at 10:47 am

  I’m going with no state income tax. The sales tax is about the same in Southern California right now, so it was basically a 6.5% (California state income tax) increase in pay for us to move here.

• 41 WestSideBilly // Jan 7, 2008 at 11:04 am

  The beer fest? (which reminds me, our beer scene is GREAT)….

  I visited some friends in Cleveland around Christmas and they commented that they missed the variety of quality microbrew beers available out here. Very few bars in the midwest have anything but the Miller/Bud/Coors macrobrews.

• 42 old timer // Jan 7, 2008 at 12:03 pm

  FWIW,
  I picked ‘water’ for the poll, but it’s really hard to set limits.
  Moved here from NYC in ‘67, and have not missed it enough to go back, even for a visit.
  Maybe it’s because Seattle gave me the space and the opportunity to be a Joe Average and still have a life. A life with a home and garden, a satisfying career, with friends and neighbors who are supportive, caring, and long lasting.
  Once I got the hang of getting out of town to the Sun for a couple weeks in the dead of winter, it all really started clicking. There is no other place on the planet that I’d rather be during the brief July to September summer we have here in the Pacific Northwest.
  The long warm days and the incredible places to hike here really are special.
  Not pink ponies, and consensus government, traffic, and NIMBY-ism can sometimes be almost too much.
  Our denial of our problems is evident at every turn, but I thiink that is a national epidemic.

  In the end, this is the place where I make my home.

• 43 David McManus // Jan 7, 2008 at 1:02 pm

  “A life with a home and garden…”

  Gardens or yards don’t exist in Seattle metro anymore.

• 44 Angie // Jan 7, 2008 at 4:13 pm

  Gardens or yards don’t exist in Seattle metro anymore

  Wha?? Maybe they don’t in the new townhouse canyons of Ballard, but there still are plenty of ‘em in the city limits.

  And for the folks who don’t have a patch of ground to work on their own, how about that PPatch program? Thirty-plus years and still going strong, now with 50+ locations…

  My husband and I were PPatch gardeners for years before we had a yard to call our own. It’s a terrific program. In fact, I’d nominate the PPatch program as emblematic of Seattle’s most special attributes.

• 45 deejayoh // Jan 7, 2008 at 4:18 pm

  Gardens or yards don’t exist in Seattle metro anymore

  Actually, I think Seattle is about the lowest population density (highest % SFH) of any major metro area in the country.

• 46 David McManus // Jan 7, 2008 at 4:30 pm

  Sorry, but I don’t consider 0.09 acres or less a yard especially when my house takes up 90% of it.

• 47 johnnybigspenda // Jan 7, 2008 at 5:20 pm

  deejayoh,

  do you have some stats to back that up? seems off kilter to me

• 48 Angie // Jan 7, 2008 at 7:44 pm

  I don’t consider 0.09 acres or less a yard especially when my house takes up 90% of it

  This is so bizarrely inaccurate. Just out of curiosity, have you ever actually visited Seattle?

• 49 Ira Sacharoff // Jan 7, 2008 at 8:26 pm

  David McManus,
  I live 15 minutes from downtown Seattle, and have over 1/2 an acre. Yes, there’s less and less of big yards as time goes on, but there are both eastside and south locations with expensive homes on large lots, and then there is my neighborhood(unincorporated King County, 15 minutes from downtown Seattle and a few blocks from the Renton city limits, where some of my neighbors ( and myself)have small rundown houses on large lots. It hasn’t all disappeared yet. But they’ve recently brought sewer onto my street, so I’m expecting neighbors to shortplat and build more houses. I like my neighbors, but don’t want em any closer.

• 50 Matthew // Jan 8, 2008 at 7:47 am

  BigSpender,

  Tim did an entire post on density a while back, comparing Seattle to other major cities. Use the search function.

• 51 WestSideBilly // Jan 8, 2008 at 9:03 am

  Tim’s Housing Density Post

  Here you go…

• 52 David McManus // Jan 8, 2008 at 8:32 pm

  Dang it, Tim, you forgot to include coffee!!! Coffee will save us all!!!!

• 53 Stan // Jan 10, 2008 at 4:01 pm

  My wife and I have lived in Washington DC, Los Angeles, and the Silicon Valley and have moved to Seattle. So far, we are in love with some things and miss other things. I think that this is pretty normal when moving to a new town.

  The prices here in Seattle are overpriced for what you get. Most homes in Seattle either don’t have a garage or have a one car garage compared to the other towns where you might have a 2 car or 3 car garage and a circular driveway. The typical yard in Seattle is about 5000 sq. feet. This is pretty small definitely compared to DC and still relatively small for the Beach communities in Los Angeles and the Silicon Valley in the San Francisco/San Jose Area. Nice to have enough space to set up a swing set for the kids and have a place for the dog to run around.

  The job situation in Seattle is good but doesn’t have nearly the job quantity or as many high paying jobs as the Silicon Valley, Los Angeles, or Washington DC. The Silicon Valley is surrounded by the San Francisco Bay are the Pacific Ocean for views. Los Angeles Beach communities from Santa Monica, Venice Beach, Redondo Beach down to Newport Beach, Laguna Beach, Marina Del Rey and Dana Point can be just steps to the beach and ocean. Washington DC has views of the monuments and the Potomac River and not too far to the Chesapeake Bay, Annapolis, Saint Michaels or to the Beachs on the Atlantic such as Ocean City or Virginia Beach. So, Seattle, in my view, should have at best similar trends to any of these other cities for real estate. The market went way up in Los Angeles, Washington DC, and the Silicon Valley. Seattle went up too, but not as crazy as the previous ones mentioned. Silicon Valley and Los Angeles have limited space for building new construction. A bigger issue in either of these towns than in Seattle, since in Los Angeles to find a home that is affordable, you either have to live in a dangerous area or commute up to 100 miles each way from a desert community such as Victorville or Apple Valley or Lancaster. The Silicon Valley people commute all the way out from Stockton California, Tracy, Modesto or Merced, to work in San Jose, Fremont or Palo Alto/Menlo Park/Mountain View to find affordable housing. Houses in the silicon valley are typically 1.2 Million dollars and up to buy a 2bdrm/1ba. home. But for that kind of money, you can easily get a job paying well over a hundred thousand a year with stock options but find out that the cost of living is so high that this is still not enough money to be comfortable.

  Enough of my gripes, Seattle is beautiful. The mountains and water views are everywhere. The city view is also spectacular. Some of the best qualities of Seattle are the clean air, clean water, some inexpensive seafood, and no air conditioning electic bill for the summer months.

  We are looking to buy a house but are holding off until the prices stabilize. All of the other cities I have lived in have had price adjustments. Seattle will be no exception. All markets go up in price get too high, drop some and then stabilize for a while until there is a reason for the market to either go up or down from that point. I believe that the market will drop some and then stabilize at the new value for a while until all of the subprime loans, Adjustable Rate Loans, Flipper Investors, are weeded from the market and the overall economy has a real reason for growth such as the next Microsoft, Nordstrom, or Starbucks…

• 54 patient // Jan 12, 2008 at 10:05 am

  People who believe that lower interrest rate will “save the appreciation” needs to also consider the new requirements for downpayments, credit scores and the jumbo spread. People will not magically get $100k - $200k cash just becauses interrest rates fall. Interrest rates has an impact but I don’t think it’s nearly enough to “save” the home values in the current situation. So if you are a buyer do yourself a favour and be patient. Even Greenspan and Bernanke underestimated the housing downturn, so try to not listen to “experts” instead listen to objective data and trends.

• 55 Ira Sacharoff // Jan 12, 2008 at 11:17 am

  But what if interest rates fell to the point where monthly mortgage payments were about the same as rents?
  Would it makes sense to buy then, or would that indicate that home ownership as an investment was passe, just not something that people did anymore?
  I’m not sure that a combination of home price drops and interest rate drops will ever result in monthly mortgage payments being about the same as rents, but what do ya’ll think? Are we headed in that direction, or will rents also drop?

• 56 patient // Jan 12, 2008 at 12:00 pm

  Ira, that scenario would have to include extreme price drops since the 30y interest rate can’t really drop very low ( I don’t think it’s ever been below 5% ). And in that scenario, i.e with huge price drops leading to much better affordability I can’t see why homes shouldn’t sell well again.

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