February Reporting Roundup

Here comes this month’s market reporting roundup. After seven months of declining/flat prices, declining year-over-year sales in 27 of the last 28 months, and 23 straight months of an ever-increasing number of homes on the market, I think we can officially declare that the Seattle-area housing market is in a slump. Of course, while the newspapers seem to have finally caught on to that fact, don’t expect most local real estate agents to admit it. Despite all the measurable data pointing to the market getting worse before it gets better, I think we can expect plenty of upbeat predictions and bottom-calling throughout this drop.

Click below to find out for yourself.

Elizabeth Rhodes, Seattle Times: King County home sales still soft, prices flat

In King County, single-family house and condominium sales were down 36 percent last month, available properties increased 69 percent and prices were nearly unchanged from a year earlier, the Northwest Multiple Listing Service reported Wednesday.

The median single-family house price had been unchanged for three months until it fell $5,000 in February to $429,900, but that price was just $25 less than in the previous February.

There were fewer buyers and abundant inventory for King County condominiums, whose prices were up a slim 1.3 percent to $289,000 year-over-year.

The number of available condos almost doubled, while sales fell 45 percent.

Surrounding counties also reported slow sales, price breaks and lots to choose from.

“It’s a whole different atmosphere,” seconds Diedre Haines, a Coldwell Banker Bain managing broker.

“In the last five years, we saw very little negotiation. Instead it was multiple offers with escalator clauses. Now sellers are more open to negotiation than they were a year ago.”

“The reality is we’re not desperate; we’re not California; we’re not Florida,” [real estate agent Kari Scott] says, recalling a recent bid. Those two states are among the national leaders in foreclosures and home-price declines. Someone offered 30 percent less than the asking price for a million-dollar house. The sellers laughed.

“It’s fruitless when people put in a ridiculous offer instead of a reasonable offer,” Scott says.

Which is more fruitless, a low offer from a buyer, or a seller’s stubborn insistence on asking 2007 prices? When the home languishes on the market for month after month, unreasonably high asking prices seem pretty fruitless, too. Our market not being as bad as California or Florida isn’t much consolation when you needed to sell your home in 60 days, but it’s been on the market 120 days.

Aubrey Cohen, Seattle P-I: Housing market perking up

Increased traffic at open houses and reports of homes fetching multiple offers also are “signs of an emerging spring market,” [the NWMLS press release] said.

“In March, the real estate market is set to get its mojo back,” J. Lennox Scott, chairman and chief executive of John L. Scott Real Estate, said in the statement. “We’re already seeing the momentum build.”

The pending sales numbers appear to show that this year is typical — sales are picking up as the days get longer and warmer.

But compared with the same month a year ago, February’s pending sales were down 22 percent in Seattle, 36 percent in King County and 31 percent in Western Washington.

The number of homes on the market in February increased 64 percent in Seattle, nearly 69 percent in King County and 39 percent in Western Washington from February 2007.

Some economists say Seattle-area prices could fall around 5 percent this year and then stay relatively flat.

“We won’t see a strong housing market for maybe as many as five years,” said [Altos Research CEO Michael] Simonsen, although he declined to predict when the market would bottom out.

Builders are adjusting to the new market, cutting prices and offering incentives, but other sellers are taking longer to understand a market in which they no longer have the advantage, [real estate agent Nick] Upshaw said.

“Sellers have effectively beat up on buyers for the last 20 years,” he said. “They don’t really grasp the depth of the change.”

Other than the quotes from the NWMLS press release and the headline (which interestingly was rewritten from last night’s “Spring housing surge? May be too soon to tell” to today’s “Housing market perking up”), there’s not much positive news in Mr. Cohen’s piece this month. Of course, I have to point that Mr. Cohen has become the first major local newspaper reporter to actually mention/quote Seattle Bubble in an article:

Over at Seattle Bubble, a blog dedicated to the proposition that Seattle has a housing bubble, the headline of a post about February’s statistics proclaimed, “Inventory Skyrocketing, Sales in the Gutter (Still).”

“Apparently the market is so bad that the only way they can make it seem good is to compare month-to-month stats from what is traditionally the second-slowest month of the year. Awesome,” said blog editor Timothy Ellis, mocking the listing service’s news release.

Thanks for the mention, Aubrey.

Kelly Kearsley, Tacoma News Tribune: Pierce County home prices continue downward

Pierce County’s median home price has declined for five of the past six months – and February witnessed the largest drop yet, according to figures released Wednesday by the Northwest Multiple Listing Service.

The county recorded a median home price of $260,000 in February, a decrease of 7.8 percent compared to the same month in 2007. There was no change in the median price from January.

“The buying population has changed,” said Sharon Benson, Realtor and associate broker with Coldwell Banker Bain in Tacoma. “It’s been more affected by the changing (finance) regulations, hearing the real estate news, and maybe they are thinking the bottom of the market is not here.”

Now wait a minute. Last month’s Tribune quoted Lakewood Realtor Mike Larson as saying “The bottom is here or pretty soon, I think. I would be surprised if things don’t turn around real quickly.” How can prices still be falling? I thought last month was the bottom!

Mike Benbow, Everett Herald: Home buyers seeking stability

Snohomish County home sales fell in February and prices remained flat, but real estate agents say there were some hopeful signs that things will improve this spring along with the weather.

“The atmosphere is definitely changing,” said Diedre Haines, a broker with Coldwell Banker Bain in Lynnwood, who is also a director of the Northwest Multiple Listing Service.

General concern about the economy and frequent news stories about the sagging real estate market in many parts of the country have clearly had an effect, said Dick Beeson, a Tacoma broker and a director of the listing service.

“Buyers need stability to trust that all is well and that they’ll be able to obtain financing,” he said.

Real estate agents hope the stronger economy in the Northwest and the new bank rules will provide potential buyers with the assurance their seeking.

When all the data shows decline, I guess all you can do is cling to abstract concepts like atmosphere, stability, and hope.

Rolf Boone, The Olympian: Thurston home prices steady

While median home prices continue to fall in other Western Washington counties, including an 11 percent drop in Kitsap County last month, Thurston County homes continue to go up in value.

Several factors are propping up South Sound home prices, said Pete Swensson, senior planner for the Thurston Regional Planning Council.

The region’s job market remains strong, it has avoided overbuilding by home developers, and it is attractive to buyers unable to afford more expensive King and Pierce county homes, Swensson said.

Wait, wait, wait. Are “home prices steady,” or are they “going up in value”? I’m not sure how a 5.8% decline since July’s peak could be characterized as either of those. When prices start to show a year-over-year decline, I wonder if that means the job market suddenly collapsed overnight. Say, prices are declining in King County, so does that mean that our job market isn’t strong anymore? Hmm.

(Elizabeth Rhodes, Seattle Times, 03.06.2008)
(Aubrey Cohen, Seattle P-I, 03.05.2008)
(Kelly Kearsley, Tacoma News Tribune, 03.06.2008)
(Mike Benbow, Everett Herald, 03.06.2008)
(Rolf Boone, Olympian, 03.06.2008)

  

About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

35 comments:

  1. 1
    [troll] says:

    t’s slmp – th mrkt n’t dd. Stff s sllng – y jst hv t wrk hrdr nd b bl t b strght wth ppl wh dvlp mtnl ttchmnts t thr hm (ths prcng t nrsnbly).

    Dd s t mght ppr t y whl y’r scrng th wb fr rtcls t sbstntt yr msngs, t s ctlly nt tht bd.< hrf="#" clss="rplyt" nclck="rplyt('44094','∓#91;trll∓#93;',''); rtrn fls;">Rply – < hrf="#" clss="qt" nclck="qt('44094','∓#91;trll∓#93;','t\'s slmp - th mrkt n\'t dd. Stff s sllng - y jst hv t wrk hrdr nd b bl t b strght wth ppl wh dvlp mtnl ttchmnts t thr hm (ths prcng t nrsnbly).\r\n\r\nDd s t mght ppr t y whl y\'r scrng th wb fr rtcls t sbstntt yr msngs, t s ctlly nt tht bd.',''); rtrn fls;">Qt

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  2. 2
    Jason says:

    Give me a break NostragollyUs. lol

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  3. 3

    Things are a little different in my neck of the woods. We seem to be rebounding in Leavenworth, though we still have a glut of new condos.

    http://www.myleavenworth.com/2008/02/real-estate-in-leavenworth-is-heating.html

    January and February have posted great YOY gains (prices up, volume of sales up) and sellers are not adding to the inventory like they have in years past.

    I’d be curious to hear how other vacation markets around the PNW are doing.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  4. 4
    Mike says:

    Well, three homes that we looked at this past weekend all went STI yesterday. So if there is a slump, it must be affecting things that are out of our price range. :-/

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  5. 5

    …But there is really a “drink the Kool-Aid” mentality amongst RE professionals, even the honest ones, that now is a good time to buy. I speak to a lot of folks in the industry, and I’ve come to respect a few for their honesty, and I don’t think they’re “lying” when they say that now is a good time to buy. I think they’re wrong, but I think they believe what they’re saying.
    I’d like to see some evidence that this market has stopped declining, or that pending sales start exceeding new listings before I’ll tell people to jump in.
    At the same time there are a few more listings in certain areas where sellers have grown desperate and offering significant discounts to market value. I expect these to increase.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  6. 6
    John says:

    Another wild card is how big of a hit people will be taking in their 401k.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  7. 7
    deejayoh says:

    Nostra is a local real estate expert.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  8. 8
    David McManus says:

    Nostra, aren’t you supposed to be out inking deals instead of playing on the Innernets?

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  9. 9
    [troll] says:

    rf-d my wn hm t 5.6% (30 y, fxd) w/Cntrywd, thy hd ‘spcls’ rght s thy wr bng lqdtd/sld ff t B. f y lk t th Frdd Mc srvys, thr’s nly fw mnths whr w g blw 5.6% vr th spn f lst fw yrs, s ys, bt mnth g, rght bfr th fd nnncd th lst ct tht’s nw crrnt, mrkts hd lrdy ncrprtd th ct nt th prc, nd frtntly, hv gd mtg brkr wh clls m whn h ss smthng ntwrthy, nd w wr bl t rf t 5.6%!

    S, ys, t ws, stll s gd tm t by – thnk w my tst th lw 5’s n th ntrst rts gn, sn, nd ths wth brkrs wh cn tll thr ss frm hl n th grnd, wll b frtnt ngh t thr by r rf t prtty glly gd rt.

    Dn’t frt ppl. Y stll hv sm tm t ply, bt hrry t p. nw shrrf (prsdnt) wll b n twn n 2009, nd tht’ll b dffrnt bll gm thn wht y’r sng nw…

    Thn gn, cld b wrng – nd Tm nd hs blg cld b rght. r yr ‘hnchs’ cld b rght (r wrng)… r yr lttl ngls r dvls sttng n yr shldr(s) cld b rght r wrng ;)…. Wh knws, h? :)< hrf="#" clss="rplyt" nclck="rplyt('44107','∓#91;trll∓#93;',''); rtrn fls;">Rply – < hrf="#" clss="qt" nclck="qt('44107','∓#91;trll∓#93;',' rf-d my wn hm t 5.6% (30 y, fxd) w\/Cntrywd, thy hd \'spcls\' rght s thy wr bng lqdtd\/sld ff t B. f y lk t th Frdd Mc srvys, thr\'s nly fw mnths whr w g blw 5.6% vr th spn f lst fw yrs, s ys, bt mnth g, rght bfr th fd nnncd th lst ct tht\'s nw crrnt, mrkts hd lrdy ncrprtd th ct nt th prc, nd frtntly, hv gd mtg brkr wh clls m whn h ss smthng ntwrthy, nd w wr bl t rf t 5.6%!\r\n\r\nS, ys, t ws, stll s gd tm t by - thnk w my tst th lw 5\'s n th ntrst rts gn, sn, nd ths wth brkrs wh cn tll thr ss frm hl n th grnd, wll b frtnt ngh t thr by r rf t prtty glly gd rt.\r\n\r\nDn\'t frt ppl. Y stll hv sm tm t ply, bt hrry t p. nw shrrf (prsdnt) wll b n twn n 2009, nd tht\'ll b dffrnt bll gm thn wht y\'r sng nw... \r\n\r\nThn gn, cld b wrng - nd Tm nd hs blg cld b rght. r yr \'hnchs\' cld b rght (r wrng)... r yr lttl ngls r dvls sttng n yr shldr(s) cld b rght r wrng ;).... Wh knws, h? :)',''); rtrn fls;">Qt

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  10. 10
    [troll] says:

    shld dd – 5.6% w/0 pnts dwn. Tht’s wht md t prtclrly gd, t f pckt cst ws bt 1600….< hrf="#" clss="rplyt" nclck="rplyt('44108','∓#91;trll∓#93;',''); rtrn fls;">Rply – < hrf="#" clss="qt" nclck="qt('44108','∓#91;trll∓#93;',' shld dd - 5.6% w\/0 pnts dwn. Tht\'s wht md t prtclrly gd, t f pckt cst ws bt 1600....',''); rtrn fls;">Qt

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  11. 11
    David McManus says:

    Nostra, call Dave Ross now and talk to Tim!!!!

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  12. 12
    [troll] says:

    Wh’s Dv Rss?< hrf="#" clss="rplyt" nclck="rplyt('44110','∓#91;trll∓#93;',''); rtrn fls;">Rply – < hrf="#" clss="qt" nclck="qt('44110','∓#91;trll∓#93;','Wh\'s Dv Rss?',''); rtrn fls;">Qt

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  13. 13
    tlw says:

    Dave Ross a radio show host on KIRO AM 710 station.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  14. 14
    tlw says:

    I see that NostraDammUs is possibly past the anger phase and now in acceptance.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  15. 15
    David McManus says:

    Not from here, nostra?

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  16. 16
    deejayoh says:

    New GSE loan ceiling for Seatlte was just announced – $567,500

    http://www.ofheo.gov/media/hpi/AREA_LIST.pdf

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  17. 17
    Buceri says:

    Historic…

    http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080306/home_equity.html

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  18. 18
    [troll] says:

    Srry, dn’t rlly lstn t M rd. NPR d lstn smtms, bt tht’s FM, nd rlly gt trd f tlk shw hsts -thy’r wrs thn ths blg, wntng t b rght ll th tm….

    Wh tld y ws ngry? t ws y gys gttng pssd fr nt bng bl t ffrd hm, nt m. Y’r th ns dggng nd mnng bt hm prcs bng t hgh nd y bng nbl t ffrd hm. thrws wtf r y dng hr (nlss y r nt fllwng trnds, nd ths wld bvsly b th chclttst plc t d tht nywy)?< hrf="#" clss="rplyt" nclck="rplyt('44122','∓#91;trll∓#93;',''); rtrn fls;">Rply – < hrf="#" clss="qt" nclck="qt('44122','∓#91;trll∓#93;','Srry, dn\'t rlly lstn t M rd. NPR d lstn smtms, bt tht\'s FM, nd rlly gt trd f tlk shw hsts -thy\'r wrs thn ths blg, wntng t b rght ll th tm....\r\n\r\nWh tld y ws ngry? t ws y gys gttng pssd fr nt bng bl t ffrd hm, nt m. Y\'r th ns dggng nd mnng bt hm prcs bng t hgh nd y bng nbl t ffrd hm. thrws wtf r y dng hr (nlss y r nt fllwng trnds, nd ths wld bvsly b th chclttst plc t d tht nywy)?',''); rtrn fls;">Qt

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  19. 19
    David McManus says:

    I think when prices are artificially set higher by government intervention, the fall ends up being much harder.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  20. 20
    David McManus says:

    Nostra, I own a home. I’m just a realist, so don’t be mad at me about being grounded in reality.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  21. 21
    David McManus says:

    Sorry…not own….I rent from a bank.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  22. 22
    Joel says:

    New GSE loan ceiling for Seatlte was just announced – $567,500

    Making it easier than ever to cut yourself trying to catch a falling knife.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  23. 23
    b says:

    NostragollyUs,

    Yes, all of us are very poor and nearly homeless on the streets. Nobody can match the powerful riches of yourself or your fellow homeowners. Having hundreds of thousands of dollars invested in a declining asset is the newest path to wealth, I envy you greatly. Sorry, have to go now, the soup can I am heating over a candle is hot and if I don’t eat up I might not be able to work a full shift at McDonalds tonight.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  24. 24
    [troll] says:

    b – y jst nd lttl lv mn. Nthng wrng w/wrkng t McDnlds.< hrf="#" clss="rplyt" nclck="rplyt('44136','∓#91;trll∓#93;',''); rtrn fls;">Rply – < hrf="#" clss="qt" nclck="qt('44136','∓#91;trll∓#93;','b - y jst nd lttl lv mn. Nthng wrng w\/wrkng t McDnlds.',''); rtrn fls;">Qt

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  25. 25
    [troll] says:

    Dv – rnt 1/2 my hm frm th bnk , thr hlf’s pd ff.

    Nw bck t my McDnld’s nght shft ;).< hrf="#" clss="rplyt" nclck="rplyt('44137','∓#91;trll∓#93;',''); rtrn fls;">Rply – < hrf="#" clss="qt" nclck="qt('44137','∓#91;trll∓#93;','Dv - rnt 1\/2 my hm frm th bnk , thr hlf\'s pd ff.\r\n\r\nNw bck t my McDnld\'s nght shft ;).',''); rtrn fls;">Qt

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  26. 26
    David McManus says:

    Will you please let us know which agency or brokerage firm you work at, so that we may avoid it at all costs in the future?

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  27. 27

    […] throw a wrench in a well-planned list.  Today when I thought I was going to just make a quick reporting roundup post on Seattle Bubble, and spend the rest of the day writing for project Artichoke.  Instead, I began […]

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  28. 28
    MarkM says:

    Almost makes me nostalgic for the commercial where buying a home was supposedly as easy as buying a latte. Obviously buying a $3.50 latte and a $350,000.00 home should be in the same league… right? ;-)

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  29. 29
    Joel says:

    Obviously buying a $3.50 latte and a $350,000.00 home should be in the same league… right? ;-)

    No dummy, people in the NW take their coffee products seriously. They put way more thought into buying a latte than buying a house.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  30. 30

    ….and if the house has a built in espresso machine? Then it doesn’t even need granite countertops!

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  31. 31
    disbelief says:

    I’ve been away and apparently missed something. Did Nostra “come out” as a Realtor or something related. Oh, what a surprise! Please stick around Nostra, looking forward to your posts this year (should be a great year for sales! or, uh, fires in any case)

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  32. 32
    Faster says:

    NostragollyUs…I can afford a house, a nice house at that. If you doubt it, make me a meaningful wager and we’ll put your theory to the test.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  33. 33
    MacAttack says:

    “I’d be curious to hear how other vacation markets around the PNW are doing.”

    Really? Go here: http://www.bendbubble2.blogspot.com

    Enjoy,
    Mac

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  34. 34
    MacAttack says:

    From Bend, Or…

    We are soliciting stories for the tabloid newspaper insert of our “Best
    Buyers Market in 20 Years” campaign. The deadline for stories is Mar. 17.
    The tabloid is scheduled to appear first in The Bulletin on April 2,
    followed by other local papers. The target audiences for the insert are
    first-time homebuyers, home “upgraders”, and active retirees. Our key
    messages are large inventory, affordable financing options, and the
    resources available to first-time buyers. We are seeking stories from
    Realtors that focus on recent sales experience in this market, including
    testimonials from first-time and other buyers who took advantage of current
    conditions, especially people who just couldn’t wait to move here and jumped
    at this great opportunity.

    Please send me your stories before the March 17 deadline so that we can edit
    them into the first draft of the tabloid.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  35. 35

    […] buyers flocking to open houses, with the market “set to get its mojo back” in March, just like it was last year? Read on to find […]

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