Here are the stats for the state. Airplanes are still WAY up there, but something should be noted:

“WISER statistics represent the value of exported products that originated in the state of Washington. Services, including software and architectural and engineering design, are not included in the data.”

I imagine that most of what Microsoft provides is a product and not a service, but I’m not sure to be honest.

Top 10 Exports by Industry Sector
Based on 2006 exports originated in Washington State,
in billions of U.S. dollars*
1. Aircraft, Spacecraft and Parts……………. $32.90
2. Industrial Machinery, Including Computers…. 2.39
3. Cereals………………………………………………. 2.30
4. Electric Machinery, Sound Equip.,
TV Equip., Parts…………………………………… 1.71
5. Oil Seeds, etc., Misc. Grain, Seed Fruit….. 1.70
6. Optic, Photo etc., Medical or Surgical…….. 1.43
7. Mineral Fuel and Oil…………………………….. 1.26
8. Wood and Articles of Wood…………………… 0.80
9. Vehicles, except Railway or
Tramway, and Parts, etc……………………….. 0.76
10.Paper and Paperboard………………………… 0.74
TOTAL ALL INDUSTRIES……………………. 53.075

So basically, it’s airplanes.

The weakened dollar should help sales for these items.

Here is some data on soaring agricultural exports in Washington for last year.

http://www.bizjournals.com/seattle/stories/2008/02/25/daily16.html?ana=from_rss

“Washington exported 38 percent more agricultural products in 2007 compared with 2006, as state officials said agricultural exports exceeded $9.3 billion last year.”

http://wenatcheeworld.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080310/BIZ01/593815753

“WENATCHEE — Washington state apple exports have stayed relatively constant in volume in the last couple of years but have increased more than 20 percent a year in value because of higher prices, says an official of the Washington Apple Commission.”

“Higher prices would tend to depress sales but haven’t because a weaker U.S. dollar increases the buying power of other countries, Baerveldt said.”

A quick Google news search for “washington state export apples” finds some useful information on apple exports.

I’m not saying that the apple industry is going to save WA from recession, just that the weaker dollar will help states with higher rates of export industry (like WA).

It was exports out of the country.

“So I’m curious about what exports from here you think will help us not get hit as bad as other parts of the country.”

I already said I don’t know the exact mix of exports. All I *do* know, for a fact (according to the article), is that as far as states go, WA rates the top in terms of % gross state product coming from exports. So we’re obviously exporting a lot of stuff relative to the US. And if exports for the *whole* US are going up (another fact) then our share of the dollar-peso bounty will be disproportionately higher than in other states.

Anecdotal evidence is great and we can pull anecdotes out of our ass all day, especially if we’re talking timber which is probably mostly non-export and used for US construction. i.e. in trouble. I do, however, prefer a more data driven approach.

Perhaps if the The Tim has The Time he can look into this export “bounty” more. If so, I’ll try and find the article I read with these stats in it…

Too many facts and not enough emotion.

Just curious, what do you see at our state’s exports (serious question)?

Boeing airplanes – check (well, can’t really count the 787 as many parts are from other countries and we will only be doing final assembly here).

Microsoft software – check.

Medical electronic devices made locally – check.

I’m sure that there are many others. But let’s consider some other andecotal evidence:

My mom & dad both own timber property, so I know that timber prices are really low now.

I go to the grocery store and buy Tree-Top (headquarters in eastern WA) apple juice, and it says “Concentrate from China” on the bottle–so we’re IMPORTING apple juice concentrate from 1/2-way around the world when we are growing apples here. Hmmm . . .

So I’m curious about what exports from here you think will help us not get hit as bad as other parts of the country.

If that 18% includes other states, you can bet a significant amount of it will hinge on consumer spending in the recessing USA. If not, then it’s probably a good sign for the local economy.

Regardless, as the dollar sinks our exports grow. Ex-petroleum exports have consistently grown and I think will keep going this way, and this benefits WA more than other states. So, as the country as a whole enters a nasty recession, it is *possible* that WA could actually not be in recession, or could be in a mild recession due to the excessive contribution of exports in our state’s economy. In every recession there are industries or areas that are affected more and less than others. The GDP figure is an average across all states, after all. In most averages there is someone that’s screwed, someone that’s fine, and someone in the middle.

Personally, I believe that the country is in the beginning of a bad recession, and that WA will experience a mild recession overall, with some areas being hit particularly hard: construction, construction materials, auto sales, luxury retail and restaurants. It’s my belief that WA’s export strength will help it avoid a bad recession.

Time will tell.

Funny as heck? Simile or metaphor?

Or irony?

To critique data because it is unfavorable to one’s opinion only to immediately refer to other data that is favorable but no more credible struck me as ironic. You’re comment to my comment struck me as funny as heck, so touche.

Funny as heck? Simile or metaphor?

I agree with you. I pulled a government economic report a week ago, its on this Bubble Brain blog, somewhere….lol, to sum it up, MSFT was adding 2% to the household wage increases in stock options, making them in error.

Of course this doesn’t help Seattle real estate at all, if its all in a handful of billionaire’s pockets. It sure spikes household income increases averages in error like the report stated….lol

2% is about half the yearly wage increases on Tim’ s charts too.

When they do average household income figures in Seattle; they should eliminate the top 1-10% incomes…..the results would horrify RE folks….lol

“Seattle is one of the nation’s fastest-growing venture capital investment areas over the past 10 years, according to a recent report. Seattle benefits from a strong bench of local venture capital firms that have embedded themselves in the startup community. It does not rely on a single industry to carry investments. Rather, it is very diverse, investing in both traditional venture capital areas as well as cutting edge investment sectors such as biotechnology and clean technology,” according to the report.

Underground there is a lot of wealth that continues to feed the Seattle area that is not as prominent in the headlines.

Here’s some written data on fairly recent employment losses in the Seattle area I just pulled:

“…2000 536,471 1,188,577 1,748,793
2005 490,695 1,133,311 1,727,080
*King, Snohomish, Pierce and Kitsap Counties.
Source: Puget Sound Regional Council…”

This documents the greater Seattle area lost about 20,000 jobs since 2000 through 2005.

See the proof:

http://www.cityofseattle.net/oir/datasheet/Datasheet2007.pdf

I know we’ve been through this before, but….aren’t those places which saw the biggest run up in prices in the last few years also places that saw healthy job growth? Not saying places with healthy job growth are better places to buy at any given time, but is it possible that they are more volatile than cities with less healthy job growth?

Not so much. Many of the areas with lowest unemployment did not participate in the boom.

Two comments on this topic. First, growth in construction jobs is touted as a positive. I really don’t see it that way. A lot of those jobs are going away, and we are barely growing as an economy with them. Once the tide goes back out, they will be a major drag. I would be much more excited to hear WA added 3000 jobs last month even though 500 construction jobs were lost.

Second, Seattle is probably the mainland city with the most at stake in Asia. China is starting to look at some very difficult times. They have industrialized more quickly than any country in history, and it is starting to bite them. I think this will drag on Seattle’s economy significantly, but it probably won’t be felt for another couple months (or maybe not until after the Olympics).

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/JubaksJournal/ChinasLoomingOlympicsDisaster.aspx

I know we’ve been through this before, but….aren’t those places which saw the biggest run up in prices in the last few years also places that saw healthy job growth? Not saying places with healthy job growth are better places to buy at any given time, but is it possible that they are more volatile than cities with less healthy job growth?

Seems to me that places with crappy economies didn’t see the big run up in home prices, and might actually be better investments right now: Maybe not Detroit, but smaller less dangerous cities with no economy?

I fear the local employment news will be very different this time next year.