http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1472

Ah hah! One more reason to live close in and further evidence that prices in Seattle-proper are immune. Whoo! And to think, I’d actually started to worry about sweet home Magnolia.

Its a psychological phenomenon called “Aversion to a sure loss”.

How many of us here have held on to a stock that continually tanked… oh, its only 5% down, it’ll come back… oh its only 25% down, it’ll come back… oh, I might as well hang on to it now to see if it comes back…

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CUod3jGQt0U

It’s as brutal now as it was back then.

(okay, I promise – no more off topic posts)

Will you be able to keep raising rents if Seattle area housing prices decline significantly? My understanding is that rental rates have been under pressure in regions where there have been substantial numbers of foreclosures. Or do you feel that rental rates have little correlation to the foreclosure, or declines in purchase prices?

What the hell gives you any idea that I a waiter or bartender.? I’m not, though I did used to deliver pizzas in 1988. It was in a different part of the country.
Maybe one of your businesses is a Psycic (sp)/ Palm reading operation My advice, keep your other businesses, you will lose your ass, as you don’t have the gift.

You are still wrong though. I don’t believe you understand economics.

It supports many of Mikals statements. But, one statement I like the most.” YOU STILL WONT BE ABLE TO AFFORD WHAT YOU CRAVE.”

He is correct. As we come down the premium properties also will decline but your financial position will change as well. In addition this slow down has had an enormous increase on my cash flow in my Residential Portfolio. I began raising all rents last October and forsee myself continuing to do this over the next year. Cash flow is already up 13%. Taxes and ins are up a bit but owning rentals (in my case) are GOLD! But, then again I bought my rentals many years ago and of course at prices that were GEMS!

Ray Pepper
http://www.500Realty.net

Time for Tim to start a new thread….how about those annoying pebbles on I405 that chip your windshield??? Cracked 4 in 6 years!!

This city has more industry than any other city in America? Ever been to the Silicon Valley?

-Adobe
-Cisco
-Intell
-Cisco
-eBay
-Apple
-Yahoo!
-Google
-Oracle
-AMD
-Sun
-Netflix

… just to name a few…

P.S. read the jobs post on the right of this blog, that argument has already been argued to death on here. Do yourself a favor and actually read some of the archives before you decide to join the conversation.

I was listening to NPR on my way to work this AM. They were discussing how the housing thing could’ve possibly gotten so out of hand. The financial expert guy basically said (paraphrasing) that this is simply a function of human nature. When people become so invested in believing that prices can only go up, you can scream and yell at them all you want with any number of entirely logical reasons why this situation has become irrational and unsustainable, yet you can expect that nobody will listen. It made me think of some of the discussions on this blog. They were taking calls and I was half expecting to hear Tim’s voice.

Just another troll that wants to come on here and argue the same tired points that have been discussed over and over again. Perhaps if he did a little research and read some of the old posts that addressed all these items we wouldn’t be constantly having the same conversations over and over again.

The ironic thing is how people continue to argue against declining housing prices in the face of overwhelming data. This is probably the reason that the quality of troll has diminished so much… Anyone with half a brain has ceased to argue.

How did I guess that you fell into the latter group. Do you also own a pink pony ranch?

Seattle has nowhere near the density to support the prices of the last few years (ranked 26 according to this last). Seattle has a long way to go before it can charge SF or NYC close-in premiums. Besides, such a long term trend would take decades to appear, and not appear all of the sudden in 2004 and go away at the end of 2007 as bubble pricing did.

http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2007/06/19/who-employs-the-bubbleheads/#more-874

Too "golly" funny!!! I like how you don’t mention that GOP loser who got the depression going.
‘Let someone else cleanup the mess’ seems to be the motto of the modern Republicans.

Prices coming down benefit everyone in this market except for people that are looking to sell to leave the area and/or flippers/investors.

Form your own opinion about those on this blog that seem to adamantly oppose this line of thinking, chances are they belong to the latter group.

“what goes up comes down”, I don’t understand that satement, or how it makes me a socialist. I believe in free markets and the law of supply and demand. Yes, if the economy tanks (not just the “market”), then housing will be cheaper. Of course, to afford it, maybe it’d be good if you had been a saver, and had some cash on hand.

That’s why I am not too worried about “things’” in general tanking, myself. I think many people in America will learn a hard lesson about finances soon – I don’t gloat about it, and that doesn’t make me a socialist. I think it’s good in the long run, so long as we don’t get another FDR (or Obama or Hillary or McCain) to try to “solve” things.

Oh, yeah I just think the name sounds commie; also it seemed at his first comment that he didn’t understand supply and demand, which is one of the many signs of a commie.

You are wrong.

As per the BEA website, Washington state is not in the top 10 states of per capita GDP. (It’s #12 based on 2006 data). #12 is good, but not close to the claim you make of “more money in this state than any other”.

Your $10,000 claim was wrong too. For washington, it’s $39k.

He was referencing an article from the (I think) WSJ that broke down the per capita income generated from actual industry. WA was first with around $10k/yr. I don’t know what is considered industry and what isn’t, but that’s what he was referring to.

Can’t wait for those 10-11 percent July YOY decreases!

The rest of us get 10%. Sounds fair to me.

“Thank god we live in Seattle where we have some industry. It insulates us from much of what is happening in the rest of the U.S. We have industry here. We make more money in this state per capita ($10,000) than any other”

You are wrong.

As per the BEA website, Washington state is not in the top 10 states of per capita GDP. (It’s #12 based on 2006 data). #12 is good, but not close to the claim you make of “more money in this state than any other”.

Your $10,000 claim was wrong too. For washington, it’s $39k.

Things get weirder and weirder, we have one guy who is thinking the market will tank so things will be affordable again (somewhat I believe a socialist/community bent) calling the owner who is thinking things will never go down (somewhat the capitalist bent) a commie. STRANGE to say the least.

Mikal, for every seller there is a buyer. What are those owner of the Wallingford houses to do? I mean the ones that want or have to move ( maybe they lost theiir jobs ithe depression.) Should they just sit tight in it for years until the good times? How, if they are out of a job? Supply and Demand, my non-Commie friend – it is a concept that has obviously not sunken into your head yet.

It might be a depression we never get out of, if we go socialist like we did during the last one. Hope FDR rots llke leftover sweet-potatos. (Well, that may not be much of a mean comment, I’m sure he has rotted already, it’s what dead people do.

http://paul-northvancouverhomes.blogspot.com/

I read this blog often. Looks like we are starting to follow the US trend.

He said I’d be proud- he was driving a used car now, one that was paid for. Yeah, his home was $80k upside down.. The spec home he’d bought to flip was upside down too, a total disaster, but he’d been able to rent it on a year lease…. at $1500/mo. less than his carrying cost. He owed hundreds of thousands to his in-laws and brother, but was current on his payments. He suggested we should get together and have lunch sometime soon.

I thought to myself, “why?” He wouldn’t listen before. I’m done giving out advice that no one wants to hear. And my advice now would be a lot harder to live with than what we discussed before. He thinks prices will come back next year. He thought maybe some condos would be a good deal now, that they might cash flow.

He’s going to end up bankrupt, divorced, and dis-owned. If he didn’t have a good $160K/yr job, he’d be bankrupt now. Instead, he busts his butt to just keep his head above water, but it won’t work. Another 10% drop in his real estate holdings will eat up a full years gross salary. Debt slave.

Real Estate always goes up. The bottom is in. Now is a great time to buy. The government will save us.

The majority of people are fools, and deserve what they get.

This country is seriously talking about NATIONALIZING THE BANKS, and some of you think it’s a good time to buy? WTF!!

At least bring some facts to the game. Also, when talking economics it is often more important to see the direction of markets as well as the rate of change. Unemployment might stil be low at 5% but it moving higher is a sign of a weaking economy and with all the leverage in the market now any small change means big problems. If your arguments were valid then why would anyone be concerned over a stock-market that has declined from it’s highs when it’s still well above what it was 2 years ago. Please bring some game next time and not the same old tired arguments that have been said and disproven in the major markets in the country with equally good economies and arguably better living conditions. You purchased 10yrs ago…did you buy anything in 2006-2007? doesn’t sound like it. If you did you’d know what the heck was going on around you.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_frequently_misused_English_words

Also, as has been pointed out to you by several people, values of assets are not assigned by the creator in some special system. Property is worth what somebody is willing and able to pay for it. Around here right now, the will is there but the ability has been removed.

How hard is it to understand that a pyramid scheme cannot go on indefinitely?

In my view the thing that could really lead to major price declines for close in properties would be overbuilding, which might be an issue for condo towers but not for regular single family homes

Manhattan is now seeing price declines and they have a much tighter building environment than Seattle. Heck, all of New York city is seeing price declines (e.g. Brooklyn, etc). All it will take to tank prices in Seattle is a Dow Jones Industrial average dropping below 10,000, and hiring freezes announced at a couple major employers. Just watch how quickly people put their spending plans on hold…

If there is a pretty much fixed supply of those located close

That’s a pretty big “if” seeing as how supply increased faster than demand. You can make up hypothetical situations all you want, but it’s not going to change reality.

You will either be earning less, or earning nothing. You still won’t be able to afford what you crave.

Awesome. So now that houses are permanently unaffordable, when someone needs to sell and they can’t (because nobody can afford it), I guess it’ll just stay empty and unsold forever?

You people cheering the decline better be sure about what you are cheering.

You watch too much Oprah. Just cheering something doesn’t make it happen. If it actually mattered, the NAR, all the realtors, mortgage brokers and house owners would propped up the entire market by sheer force of will.