Ray Pepper
http://www.500Realty.net

When economic circumstances become favourable again (i.e. attractive currency exchanges and labour rates) manufacturing jobs will pour back into the USA faster than anyone can imagine.

Way to stand out from the crowd…

Ira, thank you for putting a smile on my face everytime I see your ad ;) It’s nice to know there is a Realtor that will be around thru thick and thin times. U R A HOTTIE!

It seems our “insane growth” glueboard housing demise was simultaneous to our American industrial base collapse [that's coming back soon I predict, it has to, to pay the interest debt], as we brainlessly felt that we didn’t need an American industrial base, if we could borrow foreign money to build homes and buy their stuff.

Cheer up bloggers; the party’s over. Our industrial base is coming back soon and we will be buying less abroad….we have to.

See the AFP proof:

“…US mortgage crisis costs global economy 945 bln dlrs: IMF
9 minutes ago
WASHINGTON (AFP) – The International Monetary Fund said Tuesday the worldwide losses stemming from the US subprime mortgage crisis could hit 945 billion dollars.
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The IMF, in a particularly stark biannual report, said that falling US housing prices and rising delinquencies on the residential mortgage market could lead to losses of 565 billion dollars.
Combined with other categories of loans originated and securities issued in the United States related to commercial real estate, the consumer credit market, and corporations “increases aggregate potential losses to about 945 billion dollars,” it said.
“The crisis is spreading beyond the US subprime market — namely to the prime residential and commercial real estate markets, consumer credit, and the low- to high grade corporate credit markets,” the IMF said in releasing its Global Financial Stability Report.
While the US remains the epicenter, “financial institutions in other countries have also been affected, reflecting the same overly benign global financial conditions and to varying degrees — weaknesses in risk management systems and prudential supervision.”
It was the first time the multilateral institution has made an official estimate of the global losses suffered by banks and other financial institutions in the credit squeeze that began eight months ago in the US, amid rising defaults on subprime, or high-risk, home loans.
The IMF cautioned that its loss estimates were imperfect and could go higher….”

Tuesday April 8, 10:21 am ET
By Alan Zibel, AP Business Writer

Pending Sales of Existing Homes in US Fall to New Low

WASHINGTON (AP) — The National Association of Realtors says pending U.S. home sales fell to the lowest reading on record in February, signaling the housing market distress is not yet over.

The Chicago-based group’s seasonally adjusted index of pending sales for existing homes fell to 84.6, which was 21 percent below year-ago levels.

Wall Street economists surveyed by Thomson/IFR had predicted the index would inch higher.

An index reading of 100 is equal to the average level of sales activity in 2001, when the index started.

youd do better to go out and knock on doors.

Whenever I finally decide to jump in the market, I’ll give you call. You’ve proven your honesty and integrity here.

There is no way that any of the metro areas with high use of speculative financing are going to just level off when the ability to refinance has been restricted.

How can this be possible?! I have been amazed and confused that with over 30 units available, and nothing moving, the units have not been dropping, but this is either complete arrogance… or stupidity.

http://www.johnlscott.com/propertydetail.aspx?IS=1&ListingID=31704762

I was looking at this earlier today. According to them, the market peaked on 6/26/07 @ $236/sqft. As of 2 months ago, it was at ~$211. I was interested in the annualized rate of drop – which is sitting at about 17% a year for Seattle!

I’ll post something later. maybe a blog post.

My significant other’s widowed mom sold her 3 bdrm 2 bath Pullman home on Yates Street for $219,000 in Sept 2006. I think she caught the very peak.

Do you have any more Glenn Crellin stories you want to share? :) We haven’t heard much from him lately.

Glad to see you visit. I hear Pullman real estate will be supported by all of those double income families that work on campus. (They all make 6 figures each, you know.)

http://hotpads.com/map/cities/WA/Seattle.htm#lat=47.6251869170292&lon=-122.263137817383&zoom=18&areaBorders=heatMapForclosuresPerCapita&listingTypes=foreclosure&bedrooms=1,2,3plus&pricingFrequency=once&loan=30,0.0642,0

Good to hear the Seattle area is finally cracking because greater fools from the coast buying “investment” homes are the primary cause of our bubble. California bubble begats the Seattle bubble which begats bubbles in Yakima, Walla Walla and Pullman (to give a few examples).

But don’t worry, I’m reassured by local real estate agents that, you guessed it, “Pullman is different, Pullman is unique and Pullman is special.” What is happening nationally has nothing to do with us, and it was just a coincidence that Pullman homes appreciated at double digit annual rates from 2003 to 2007.

We are up to 163 single family and condos on the MLS right now, 60 more than last year’s peak. Needless to say that doesn’t even include our new condo developments (condos are the future in Pullman, didn’t you know, as there just isn’t enough land around here and everyone moves to Pullman for the edgy, urban nightlife.)

What amazes me, though, is that people are still BUYING and builders are still BUILDING! Sales are way down YOY, and the local population is largely boycotting real estate. With median home price approaching the high $200k range in a town with a median income of $50k, there are few local salaries sufficient to afford current prices. But we are still seeing folks come in from outside with a bucket of money and box of stupid.

Plain vanilla “median price” doesn’t say much about the market as a whole.

…I would venture to guess that now is not a good time to buy…..

Couldn’t agree more. My wife and I actually had started looking when we got up to the area mid last year, and since doing some more research.. we’ve moved to renting while building up a larger down payment.

I think the same is true all over King County, but the NWMLS doesn’t capture this data because:
1) Houses sold in March are more expensive than the ones that sold in February;
2) Houses sold in March are better (more square footage, better maintenance, newer, more bedrooms) than the houses that sold in February;

I wish point (2) above could be captured in comparison data. What is the average square footage of all houses sold in Feb vs. March? How about avg # of bedrooms? How about avg year-built? I bet that if we chart this data over the last few months, we’ll see price declines reflected from another angle – people getting more house for the same money.

And prices do not seem to show a YOY pattern anyway! Certainly not like sales and inventory does! So why do they focus on YOY changes in prices?

I’ve posted an image on my blog of percent declines of SFH and condos in King, Sno, and Pierce since the peak in each.

The ironic thing is that even if prices stay flat from here until summer, the change in YOY prices will get worse and worse as we get closer to the one-year anniversary of when the market peaked. I think they’d be better off if they just got the hard part out of the way right now and focus on price declines from peak.

Wow AndyMiami ,

Those are some pretty scary negative equity numbers listed in that report.

I would venture to guess that now is not a good time to buy. And I hope that the local media reports what this study is saying…but they probable will not..how sad for those who buy today, or over the last two years.

I can’t get over the irony of everybody calling a bottom, when all that has happened is the roller-coaster of Seattle prices has just rolled over the top, and is hanging in that short period of equilibrium before it begins to accelerate down the backside of the slope. A crested top is now a bottom? Must be some kind of “new-speak.”

It’s the Kool-aid that RE agents want would-be knife-catchers to drink. They deserve each other.

Those are some pretty scary negative equity numbers listed in that report.

‘Anytime is the best time to buy’, says guess who

…through gritted teeth, presumably.

http://www.cepr.net/index.php/publications/reports/the-cost-of-maintaining-ownership-in-the-current-crisis/

So long as the aggregate choices made by those around us continue to elevate value of the intangibles associated with owning a home to anything more than about 10% over the price of renting – I’ll personally be happy to keep renting irrespective of whether the market has bottomed or not.