Comments on: March Neighborhood Months of Supply Update http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/04/14/march-neighborhood-months-of-supply-update/ News & discussion about real estate & the housing bubble in the Seattle area. Sat, 21 Nov 2009 10:02:55 -0800 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.6 hourly 1 By: Mercer Island Real Estate Odds & Ends « Surrounded By Water: A Mercer Island Blog http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/04/14/march-neighborhood-months-of-supply-update/#comment-47705 Mercer Island Real Estate Odds & Ends « Surrounded By Water: A Mercer Island Blog Fri, 09 May 2008 21:05:41 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=1819#comment-47705 [...] Seattle Bubble reported that in March the Mercer Island market tipped into sellers’ market [...]<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('47705','Mercer Island Real Estate Odds & Ends « Surrounded By Water: A Mercer Island Blog',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('47705','Mercer Island Real Estate Odds & Ends « Surrounded By Water: A Mercer Island Blog','[...] Seattle Bubble reported that in March the Mercer Island market tipped into sellers’ market [...]',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> [...] Seattle Bubble reported that in March the Mercer Island market tipped into sellers’ market [...]
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]]> By: A Few Properties Still Seeing Multiple Bids | Seattle Bubble — News & discussion about real estate & the housing bubble in the Seattle area. http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/04/14/march-neighborhood-months-of-supply-update/#comment-47274 A Few Properties Still Seeing Multiple Bids | Seattle Bubble — News & discussion about real estate & the housing bubble in the Seattle area. Fri, 02 May 2008 15:46:12 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=1819#comment-47274 [...] that sounds familiar, it might be because I said the same exact thing two weeks ago in the March Neighborhood Months of Supply Update. Of course, I didn’t have a spiffy color-coded map to illustrate my point. But don’t [...]<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('47274','A Few Properties Still Seeing Multiple Bids | Seattle Bubble — News & discussion about real estate & the housing bubble in the Seattle area.',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('47274','A Few Properties Still Seeing Multiple Bids | Seattle Bubble — News & discussion about real estate & the housing bubble in the Seattle area.','[...] that sounds familiar, it might be because I said the same exact thing two weeks ago in the March Neighborhood Months of Supply Update. Of course, I didn’t have a spiffy color-coded map to illustrate my point. But don’t [...]',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> [...] that sounds familiar, it might be because I said the same exact thing two weeks ago in the March Neighborhood Months of Supply Update. Of course, I didn’t have a spiffy color-coded map to illustrate my point. But don’t [...]
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]]> By: Evening Magazine on Tim Ellis & Seattle Bubble | Seattle Bubble — News & discussion about real estate & the housing bubble in the Seattle area. http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/04/14/march-neighborhood-months-of-supply-update/#comment-47135 Evening Magazine on Tim Ellis & Seattle Bubble | Seattle Bubble — News & discussion about real estate & the housing bubble in the Seattle area. Thu, 01 May 2008 03:04:37 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=1819#comment-47135 [...] March Neighborhood Months of Supply Update [...]<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('47135','Evening Magazine on Tim Ellis & Seattle Bubble | Seattle Bubble — News & discussion about real estate & the housing bubble in the Seattle area.',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('47135','Evening Magazine on Tim Ellis & Seattle Bubble | Seattle Bubble — News & discussion about real estate & the housing bubble in the Seattle area.','[...] March Neighborhood Months of Supply Update [...]',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> [...] March Neighborhood Months of Supply Update [...]
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]]> By: george http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/04/14/march-neighborhood-months-of-supply-update/#comment-46490 george Fri, 18 Apr 2008 02:42:31 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=1819#comment-46490 Anyone know what's happening to rental supply right now? Is all the overpriced crap out there renting? Or is rental supply building for another crash?<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('46490','george',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('46490','george','Anyone know what\'s happening to rental supply right now? Is all the overpriced crap out there renting? Or is rental supply building for another crash?',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> Anyone know what’s happening to rental supply right now? Is all the overpriced crap out there renting? Or is rental supply building for another crash?
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]]> By: The Tim http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/04/14/march-neighborhood-months-of-supply-update/#comment-46419 The Tim Wed, 16 Apr 2008 23:24:52 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=1819#comment-46419 No problem. I try to check the spam bin once a day for false positives. But that still usually means a delay of at least a couple hours if comment gets wrongly flagged as spam.<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('46419','The Tim',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('46419','The Tim','No problem. I try to check the spam bin once a day for false positives. But that still usually means a delay of at least a couple hours if comment gets wrongly flagged as spam.',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> No problem. I try to check the spam bin once a day for false positives. But that still usually means a delay of at least a couple hours if comment gets wrongly flagged as spam.
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]]> By: EconE http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/04/14/march-neighborhood-months-of-supply-update/#comment-46418 EconE Wed, 16 Apr 2008 23:23:03 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=1819#comment-46418 thanks for digging that comment out of the trash Tim. :o)<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('46418','EconE',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('46418','EconE','thanks for digging that comment out of the trash Tim. :o)',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> thanks for digging that comment out of the trash Tim. :o)
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]]> By: EconE http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/04/14/march-neighborhood-months-of-supply-update/#comment-46391 EconE Wed, 16 Apr 2008 16:54:24 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=1819#comment-46391 thanks jon...i replied but my comment never made it out of tims filter one 1mm+ sale was listed 102 times on redfin. Once for each unit in the apartment complex that sold in bellevue<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('46391','EconE',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('46391','EconE','thanks jon...i replied but my comment never made it out of tims filter\r\n\r\none 1mm+ sale was listed 102 times on redfin. Once for each unit in the apartment complex that sold in bellevue',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> thanks jon…i replied but my comment never made it out of tims filter

one 1mm+ sale was listed 102 times on redfin. Once for each unit in the apartment complex that sold in bellevue

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]]> By: EconE http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/04/14/march-neighborhood-months-of-supply-update/#comment-46383 EconE Wed, 16 Apr 2008 05:43:30 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=1819#comment-46383 Thanks jon...I checked it out and also compared it to my own redfin searches showing the last 3 months of sales. The 3 month numbers are about the same as the total of Jan, Feb and March numbers for sales...however...the numbers are actually much uglier than those charts show. I'll point out whereI feel the spin is on these numbers. For example...ahhh...I'll throw a few examples out. Here's a couple from the most egregious offender of those numbers. It is an apartment complex in Bellevue that is actually listed as 102 different sales on Redfin. I won't link every one for times sake...but yes...you read correctly...One Hundred and Two "counts" for that one sale. http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-property?external_id=61120 http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-property?external_id=31344 Plus there are quite a few "whole" apartment complexes listed too....such as... http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-property?external_id=2068963 http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-property?external_id=2060240 http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-property?external_id=2060775 and many many more. Then there are the parking spots that are listed as sales...such as the ones that came with this condo... condo ... http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-property?external_id=61201 parking spot (or storage?) #1 & #2... http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-property?external_id=51457 http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-property?external_id=68679 See what I mean? U G L Y<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('46383','EconE',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('46383','EconE','Thanks jon...I checked it out and also compared it to my own redfin searches showing the last 3 months of sales. The 3 month numbers are about the same as the total of Jan, Feb and March numbers for sales...however...the numbers are actually much uglier than those charts show. I\'ll point out whereI feel the spin is on these numbers.\r\n\r\nFor example...ahhh...I\'ll throw a few examples out.\r\n\r\nHere\'s a couple from the most egregious offender of those numbers. It is an apartment complex in Bellevue that is actually listed as 102 different sales on Redfin. I won\'t link every one for times sake...but yes...you read correctly...One Hundred and Two \"counts\" for that one sale.\r\n\r\nhttp:\/\/www.redfin.com\/stingray\/do\/printable-property?external_id=61120\r\n\r\nhttp:\/\/www.redfin.com\/stingray\/do\/printable-property?external_id=31344\r\n\r\nPlus there are quite a few \"whole\" apartment complexes listed too....such as...\r\n\r\nhttp:\/\/www.redfin.com\/stingray\/do\/printable-property?external_id=2068963\r\n\r\nhttp:\/\/www.redfin.com\/stingray\/do\/printable-property?external_id=2060240\r\n\r\nhttp:\/\/www.redfin.com\/stingray\/do\/printable-property?external_id=2060775\r\n\r\nand many many more.\r\n\r\nThen there are the parking spots that are listed as sales...such as the ones that came with this condo...\r\n\r\ncondo ... \r\n\r\n http:\/\/www.redfin.com\/stingray\/do\/printable-property?external_id=61201\r\n\r\nparking spot (or storage?) #1 & #2...\r\n\r\nhttp:\/\/www.redfin.com\/stingray\/do\/printable-property?external_id=51457\r\n\r\nhttp:\/\/www.redfin.com\/stingray\/do\/printable-property?external_id=68679\r\n\r\nSee what I mean?\r\n\r\nU G L Y',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> Thanks jon…I checked it out and also compared it to my own redfin searches showing the last 3 months of sales. The 3 month numbers are about the same as the total of Jan, Feb and March numbers for sales…however…the numbers are actually much uglier than those charts show. I’ll point out whereI feel the spin is on these numbers.

For example…ahhh…I’ll throw a few examples out.

Here’s a couple from the most egregious offender of those numbers. It is an apartment complex in Bellevue that is actually listed as 102 different sales on Redfin. I won’t link every one for times sake…but yes…you read correctly…One Hundred and Two “counts” for that one sale.

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-property?external_id=61120

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-property?external_id=31344

Plus there are quite a few “whole” apartment complexes listed too….such as…

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-property?external_id=2068963

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-property?external_id=2060240

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-property?external_id=2060775

and many many more.

Then there are the parking spots that are listed as sales…such as the ones that came with this condo…

condo …

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-property?external_id=61201

parking spot (or storage?) #1 & #2…

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-property?external_id=51457

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-property?external_id=68679

See what I mean?

U G L Y

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]]> By: jon http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/04/14/march-neighborhood-months-of-supply-update/#comment-46381 jon Wed, 16 Apr 2008 02:55:15 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=1819#comment-46381 EconE: take a look at the second page of this: http://www.alanpope.com/Mar08/All_NWMLS.pdf<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('46381','jon',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('46381','jon','EconE: take a look at the second page of this:\r\n\r\nhttp:\/\/www.alanpope.com\/Mar08\/All_NWMLS.pdf',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> EconE: take a look at the second page of this:

http://www.alanpope.com/Mar08/All_NWMLS.pdf

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]]> By: Alan http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/04/14/march-neighborhood-months-of-supply-update/#comment-46380 Alan Wed, 16 Apr 2008 01:19:38 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=1819#comment-46380 <blockquote>I think that large scale changes in way residential real estate is transacted makes these historical statistics less useful. </blockquote> I heard the same thing about .com companies in 2000. "It is different now."<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('46380','Alan',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('46380','Alan','<blockquote>I think that large scale changes in way residential real estate is transacted makes these historical statistics less useful. <\/blockquote>\r\n\r\nI heard the same thing about .com companies in 2000. \"It is different now.\"',''); return false;">Quote</a></div>

I think that large scale changes in way residential real estate is transacted makes these historical statistics less useful.

I heard the same thing about .com companies in 2000. “It is different now.”

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]]> By: EconE http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/04/14/march-neighborhood-months-of-supply-update/#comment-46379 EconE Wed, 16 Apr 2008 01:03:30 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=1819#comment-46379 I'd love to see the AR and corresponding MOS for $1,000,000+ homes and condos. Those would be some ugly statistics that nobody could spin.<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('46379','EconE',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('46379','EconE','I\'d love to see the AR and corresponding MOS for $1,000,000+ homes and condos.\r\n\r\nThose would be some ugly statistics that nobody could spin.',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> I’d love to see the AR and corresponding MOS for $1,000,000+ homes and condos.

Those would be some ugly statistics that nobody could spin.

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]]> By: mike2 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/04/14/march-neighborhood-months-of-supply-update/#comment-46378 mike2 Wed, 16 Apr 2008 00:43:06 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=1819#comment-46378 jonI’m guessing that West Bellevue (520) sellers are holding firm on their prices in anticipation of all the office space coming online in downtown Bellevue.

Yeah, the sellers in Herndon, VA were saying the same thing 2 years ago. Today, homes within walking distance to the new VW north american headquarters and several million square feet of brand new Class-A office space are selling for 40%+ off peak market values. And this is in an area where median household incomes are over $100K and unemployment is under 3%.

Office space built during the bubble is what it is – mis-allocated capital.

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]]> By: Keith http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/04/14/march-neighborhood-months-of-supply-update/#comment-46377 Keith Wed, 16 Apr 2008 00:42:34 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=1819#comment-46377 I think that large scale changes in way residential real estate is transacted makes these historical statistics less useful. We are all familiar with the securitization of mortgages (in many cases, poor mortgages) - this explosion of financing opportunities is what allowed prices to rise so dramatically. As with any trend, it overshot the peak significantly and now we're seeing the correction. So, during the period of rise we saw much higher transaction rates, but - when we reach a new stable plateau (which hasn't happened yet), my opinion is that we'll return to the pre-boom levels of appreciation and sales rates. However, the securitization of (good) mortgages will continue to exist, which will support overall prices at a higher level than before the "boom".<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('46377','Keith',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('46377','Keith','I think that large scale changes in way residential real estate is transacted makes these historical statistics less useful. We are all familiar with the securitization of mortgages (in many cases, poor mortgages) - this explosion of financing opportunities is what allowed prices to rise so dramatically. As with any trend, it overshot the peak significantly and now we\'re seeing the correction. So, during the period of rise we saw much higher transaction rates, but - when we reach a new stable plateau (which hasn\'t happened yet), my opinion is that we\'ll return to the pre-boom levels of appreciation and sales rates. However, the securitization of (good) mortgages will continue to exist, which will support overall prices at a higher level than before the \"boom\".',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> I think that large scale changes in way residential real estate is transacted makes these historical statistics less useful. We are all familiar with the securitization of mortgages (in many cases, poor mortgages) – this explosion of financing opportunities is what allowed prices to rise so dramatically. As with any trend, it overshot the peak significantly and now we’re seeing the correction. So, during the period of rise we saw much higher transaction rates, but – when we reach a new stable plateau (which hasn’t happened yet), my opinion is that we’ll return to the pre-boom levels of appreciation and sales rates. However, the securitization of (good) mortgages will continue to exist, which will support overall prices at a higher level than before the “boom”.
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]]> By: biliruben http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/04/14/march-neighborhood-months-of-supply-update/#comment-46374 biliruben Tue, 15 Apr 2008 20:22:58 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=1819#comment-46374 Thanks, Greg. We may need it.<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('46374','biliruben',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('46374','biliruben','Thanks, Greg. We may need it.',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> Thanks, Greg. We may need it.
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]]> By: Greg Perry http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/04/14/march-neighborhood-months-of-supply-update/#comment-46372 Greg Perry Tue, 15 Apr 2008 20:06:13 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=1819#comment-46372 I use the term "absorption rate" and MOS "months of inventory" interchangeably (how long it takes inventory to absorb). I refer to the percentage number as the "sales ratio". Nonetheless, whatever the terminology, AR's give us the measurement of supply and demand, which in my mind is the best of all market indicators. Here's a link to an article that I wrote around AR's and sales ratios. http://workingforyou.typepad.com/feature_article_pricing_t/ Bili, I wish you well on the sale of your house!<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('46372','Greg Perry',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('46372','Greg Perry','I use the term \"absorption rate\" and MOS \"months of inventory\" interchangeably (how long it takes inventory to absorb). I refer to the percentage number as the \"sales ratio\".\r\n\r\nNonetheless, whatever the terminology, AR\'s give us the measurement of supply and demand, which in my mind is the best of all market indicators.\r\n\r\nHere\'s a link to an article that I wrote around AR\'s and sales ratios.\r\nhttp:\/\/workingforyou.typepad.com\/feature_article_pricing_t\/\r\n\r\nBili, I wish you well on the sale of your house!',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> I use the term “absorption rate” and MOS “months of inventory” interchangeably (how long it takes inventory to absorb). I refer to the percentage number as the “sales ratio”.

Nonetheless, whatever the terminology, AR’s give us the measurement of supply and demand, which in my mind is the best of all market indicators.

Here’s a link to an article that I wrote around AR’s and sales ratios.
http://workingforyou.typepad.com/feature_article_pricing_t/

Bili, I wish you well on the sale of your house!

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]]> By: deejayoh http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/04/14/march-neighborhood-months-of-supply-update/#comment-46365 deejayoh Tue, 15 Apr 2008 17:31:39 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=1819#comment-46365 The "Market Action Index" over at Altos is basically the absorption rate - and their page shows that anything less than 25 is a "buyer's market". That's 4 months of inventory. Most of the Puget Sound is tracking at ~15-17% over there.<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('46365','deejayoh',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('46365','deejayoh','The \"Market Action Index\" over at Altos is basically the absorption rate - and their page shows that anything less than 25 is a \"buyer\'s market\". That\'s 4 months of inventory. Most of the Puget Sound is tracking at ~15-17% over there.',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> The “Market Action Index” over at Altos is basically the absorption rate – and their page shows that anything less than 25 is a “buyer’s market”. That’s 4 months of inventory. Most of the Puget Sound is tracking at ~15-17% over there.
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]]> By: The Tim http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/04/14/march-neighborhood-months-of-supply-update/#comment-46364 The Tim Tue, 15 Apr 2008 17:07:10 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=1819#comment-46364 Right. Absorption Rates are basically just a slightly different way of looking at the same data as Months of Supply. For MOS you divide the total month-end inventory by the pending sales. For AR you just go the other way around, divide the pending sales by the month-end inventory to get a percentage. So 6.0 MOS = 16.67% AR.<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('46364','The Tim',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('46364','The Tim','Right. Absorption Rates are basically just a slightly different way of looking at the same data as Months of Supply. For MOS you divide the total month-end inventory by the pending sales. For AR you just go the other way around, divide the pending sales by the month-end inventory to get a percentage. So 6.0 MOS = 16.67% AR.',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> Right. Absorption Rates are basically just a slightly different way of looking at the same data as Months of Supply. For MOS you divide the total month-end inventory by the pending sales. For AR you just go the other way around, divide the pending sales by the month-end inventory to get a percentage. So 6.0 MOS = 16.67% AR.
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]]> By: biliruben http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/04/14/march-neighborhood-months-of-supply-update/#comment-46363 biliruben Tue, 15 Apr 2008 16:55:37 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=1819#comment-46363 Absorption rate.<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('46363','biliruben',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('46363','biliruben','Absorption rate.',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> Absorption rate.
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]]> By: alex http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/04/14/march-neighborhood-months-of-supply-update/#comment-46362 alex Tue, 15 Apr 2008 16:47:34 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=1819#comment-46362 Greg (#5), what does AR stand for?<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('46362','alex',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('46362','alex','Greg (#5), what does AR stand for?',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> Greg (#5), what does AR stand for?
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]]> By: rose-colored-coolaid http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/04/14/march-neighborhood-months-of-supply-update/#comment-46358 rose-colored-coolaid Tue, 15 Apr 2008 05:11:02 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=1819#comment-46358 I'm never sure what to think of these numbers. I often hear that Seattle is balanced at under 4.5 months of supply, but I understand why you are using the more bullish 6 months. Are any of these numbers rolling averages? It's been pointed out that the values are real small, but maybe if we used a 3-6 month rolling average they would look more reasonable...<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('46358','rose-colored-coolaid',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('46358','rose-colored-coolaid','I\'m never sure what to think of these numbers. I often hear that Seattle is balanced at under 4.5 months of supply, but I understand why you are using the more bullish 6 months.\r\n\r\nAre any of these numbers rolling averages? It\'s been pointed out that the values are real small, but maybe if we used a 3-6 month rolling average they would look more reasonable...',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> I’m never sure what to think of these numbers. I often hear that Seattle is balanced at under 4.5 months of supply, but I understand why you are using the more bullish 6 months.

Are any of these numbers rolling averages? It’s been pointed out that the values are real small, but maybe if we used a 3-6 month rolling average they would look more reasonable…

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]]> By: Greg Perry http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/04/14/march-neighborhood-months-of-supply-update/#comment-46355 Greg Perry Tue, 15 Apr 2008 03:18:20 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=1819#comment-46355 I don't really consider a Seller's advantaged market until the AR's hit 3 months and below. 3-6 months AR's are really a more balanced market. Most Seattle and Eastside areas were improved from January, but more or less even with February AR's. I track AR's weekly and I've seen sales rate increases in most Seattle and Eastside areas in the last 2 weeks. High end sales on the Eastside (particularly rural Eastside) have almost stopped which are affecting overall Eastside AR's. The Eastside is seeing Seller's markets (<3 months) in many of the lower price ranges. Certain price ranges in Seattle are Seller's markets. Lack of sales in the high end will affect median prices. I don't see how we can accurately compare YOY medians in areas affected by the lack of high end sales. Large Eastside areas like Area 600 is producing the majority of sales in the western, core part. The further east, the slower the market -- in all price ranges. This market is all over the board.<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('46355','Greg Perry',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('46355','Greg Perry','I don\'t really consider a Seller\'s advantaged market until the AR\'s hit 3 months and below. 3-6 months AR\'s are really a more balanced market.\r\n\r\nMost Seattle and Eastside areas were improved from January, but more or less even with February AR\'s.\r\n\r\nI track AR\'s weekly and I\'ve seen sales rate increases in most Seattle and Eastside areas in the last 2 weeks.\r\n\r\nHigh end sales on the Eastside (particularly rural Eastside) have almost stopped which are affecting overall Eastside AR\'s. The Eastside is seeing Seller\'s markets (<3 months) in many of the lower price ranges. Certain price ranges in Seattle are Seller\'s markets. \r\n\r\nLack of sales in the high end will affect median prices. I don\'t see how we can accurately compare YOY medians in areas affected by the lack of high end sales.\r\n\r\nLarge Eastside areas like Area 600 is producing the majority of sales in the western, core part. The further east, the slower the market -- in all price ranges.\r\n\r\nThis market is all over the board.',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> I don’t really consider a Seller’s advantaged market until the AR’s hit 3 months and below. 3-6 months AR’s are really a more balanced market.

Most Seattle and Eastside areas were improved from January, but more or less even with February AR’s.

I track AR’s weekly and I’ve seen sales rate increases in most Seattle and Eastside areas in the last 2 weeks.

High end sales on the Eastside (particularly rural Eastside) have almost stopped which are affecting overall Eastside AR’s. The Eastside is seeing Seller’s markets (<3 months) in many of the lower price ranges. Certain price ranges in Seattle are Seller’s markets.

Lack of sales in the high end will affect median prices. I don’t see how we can accurately compare YOY medians in areas affected by the lack of high end sales.

Large Eastside areas like Area 600 is producing the majority of sales in the western, core part. The further east, the slower the market — in all price ranges.

This market is all over the board.

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]]> By: The Tim http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/04/14/march-neighborhood-months-of-supply-update/#comment-46351 The Tim Mon, 14 Apr 2008 22:51:05 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=1819#comment-46351 The line graphs are in <a href="http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/03/10/february-neighborhood-inventory-update/" rel="nofollow">the inventory breakdown posts</a>. I will probably update that later this week.<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('46351','The Tim',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('46351','The Tim','The line graphs are in <a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2008\/03\/10\/february-neighborhood-inventory-update\/\" rel=\"nofollow\">the inventory breakdown posts<\/a>. I will probably update that later this week.',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> The line graphs are in the inventory breakdown posts. I will probably update that later this week.
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]]> By: Ubersalad http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/04/14/march-neighborhood-months-of-supply-update/#comment-46350 Ubersalad Mon, 14 Apr 2008 22:48:45 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=1819#comment-46350 what happened to line graph?<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('46350','Ubersalad',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('46350','Ubersalad','what happened to line graph?',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> what happened to line graph?
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]]> By: jon http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/04/14/march-neighborhood-months-of-supply-update/#comment-46349 jon Mon, 14 Apr 2008 21:24:16 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=1819#comment-46349 That's the third swing of 5 months' worth of supply in one month for Mercer Island. With sales this slow, and data broken down into small areas, drawing trend from a single month's data point is pretty unconvincing. I'm guessing that West Bellevue (520) sellers are holding firm on their prices in anticipation of all the office space coming online in downtown Bellevue. I'd be interested in some charts about the volume and timing of that, and some clues as to how much will be new jobs versus elbow room for Microsofties.<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('46349','jon',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('46349','jon','That\'s the third swing of 5 months\' worth of supply in one month for Mercer Island. With sales this slow, and data broken down into small areas, drawing trend from a single month\'s data point is pretty unconvincing.\r\n\r\nI\'m guessing that West Bellevue (520) sellers are holding firm on their prices in anticipation of all the office space coming online in downtown Bellevue. I\'d be interested in some charts about the volume and timing of that, and some clues as to how much will be new jobs versus elbow room for Microsofties.',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> That’s the third swing of 5 months’ worth of supply in one month for Mercer Island. With sales this slow, and data broken down into small areas, drawing trend from a single month’s data point is pretty unconvincing.

I’m guessing that West Bellevue (520) sellers are holding firm on their prices in anticipation of all the office space coming online in downtown Bellevue. I’d be interested in some charts about the volume and timing of that, and some clues as to how much will be new jobs versus elbow room for Microsofties.

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]]> By: biliruben http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/04/14/march-neighborhood-months-of-supply-update/#comment-46348 biliruben Mon, 14 Apr 2008 19:33:13 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=1819#comment-46348 Nice data, Tim. Living in 720 and planning on listing my house on Monday, I can tell you it's definitely a buyer's market here, regardless of MOS being still healthy. Houses that are priced at last summer's prices are just sitting. Houses in the low-end, which is what I'm selling, which were selling at 340K-350K last summer are just sitting until they drop their price near 300K or below. The market is changing so fast that it's hard for the statistics to keep up. I have to limit my comps to the last 3 months, and even then they are stale and unreliable. The flipper next-door told me a few weeks ago he was listing soon at $315K, assuming I was going to go significantly higher than that. When I told him I was thinking about around there or a little lower, he's become increasingly speedy and surly. I think he's starting to realize that he may not be making as much as he thought, or perhaps be looking at a loss when taking into account his labor and materials costs. Nobody likes to work until midnight for free. Just ask me.<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('46348','biliruben',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('46348','biliruben','Nice data, Tim. Living in 720 and planning on listing my house on Monday, I can tell you it\'s definitely a buyer\'s market here, regardless of MOS being still healthy. Houses that are priced at last summer\'s prices are just sitting. \r\n\r\nHouses in the low-end, which is what I\'m selling, which were selling at 340K-350K last summer are just sitting until they drop their price near 300K or below. \r\n\r\nThe market is changing so fast that it\'s hard for the statistics to keep up. I have to limit my comps to the last 3 months, and even then they are stale and unreliable.\r\n\r\nThe flipper next-door told me a few weeks ago he was listing soon at $315K, assuming I was going to go significantly higher than that. When I told him I was thinking about around there or a little lower, he\'s become increasingly speedy and surly. I think he\'s starting to realize that he may not be making as much as he thought, or perhaps be looking at a loss when taking into account his labor and materials costs.\r\n\r\nNobody likes to work until midnight for free. Just ask me.',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> Nice data, Tim. Living in 720 and planning on listing my house on Monday, I can tell you it’s definitely a buyer’s market here, regardless of MOS being still healthy. Houses that are priced at last summer’s prices are just sitting.

Houses in the low-end, which is what I’m selling, which were selling at 340K-350K last summer are just sitting until they drop their price near 300K or below.

The market is changing so fast that it’s hard for the statistics to keep up. I have to limit my comps to the last 3 months, and even then they are stale and unreliable.

The flipper next-door told me a few weeks ago he was listing soon at $315K, assuming I was going to go significantly higher than that. When I told him I was thinking about around there or a little lower, he’s become increasingly speedy and surly. I think he’s starting to realize that he may not be making as much as he thought, or perhaps be looking at a loss when taking into account his labor and materials costs.

Nobody likes to work until midnight for free. Just ask me.

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