rot, design, landscape, construction, or painting could be addressed by video, i think. we have experimented with photos and that didn’t work in terms of scope. so video seems like a good way to get a clear picture of the scope of work.

rather than me go out, look, and make a judgement call about a project, and we are talking about project houses, or buildings, you can video a project, send it to us, we look at the video and make a determination. we can refer the work, or make suggestions.

the real estate portion is just a piece in an over all puzzle of bringing a property to market. so yea, i’m not smart, i do need help with the web sites to accomplish my goals.

i have another site at http://www.jetcityrealestate.com and a blog at http://www.fixerfixer.com the idea was to put together a one resource place for construction services.

i like driving around in my truck with the dogs. most of my career is centered around running crews of construction workers. the real estate thing is a part of that.

when we work on a place for a couple of months then the thieving real estate agent comes in and makes as much as we do it’s kind of nutty. at the same time i watch the thieving real estate agent tell a home owner to do ten thousand dollars worth of work to a place so the thieving real estate agent can under price the place for a quick sale.

there should be a place where people can go, good market or bad and get service they can trust. when you see my guys and i it’s a little different than you might imagine. we’re good people trying to do the right thing.

so i come here to learn. three guys discussing the data, WTF?

you guys have good ideas about the economy and trends, it’s information that Real Estate sites should be offering but don’t.

http://i251.photobucket.com/albums/gg317/bubbleblog/CSI_deflationFromFeb07-1.jpg

I made this chart based on extrapolation of a linear regression of the past 12 months of YOY changes in the CSI which are very linear (r^2=0.98) and possibly steepening .

Extrapolating the regression forward suggests that the next 3 months will show a little bit of a spring bounce, and after that the deflation will continue to progress below the current prices.

Back when I bought in 1997, during normal times, the rule of thumb that it takes 5 years to recover from that loss under normal appreciation, inflation, and maintenance.

They haven’t been very friendly to me lately. Maybe I should have kept my mouth shut and not said anything.

Next thing you know, some whack-o is going to come in here and start posting that a decent chunk of higher-end properties in the PNW are going to start selling for 20c on the dollar.

I once made the mistake of buying next to multi-family rentals. It was a mistake I only made once. If you really want to part with that kind of scratch, get the hell away from the rentals and in a nice single family neighborhood.

Seriously, bubble or not, please don’t do it. You will regret it.

The question isn’t really if it’s a ’steal’ or not, but rather the more important one: can you afford it (and to a lesser extent, will it bother you if its value drops after you buy it)?

Taken from the Redfin listing, I must mention my favorite feature of the house: ‘High Tech Cabling’

And also it lists the annual taxes at $1,450.00 — obviously this is a gross error. It might be last year’s taxes on the bare lot before the house was built

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1675848

I think the ‘decline from peak’ graph is truly one of the best you have come up with. It is simple, yet tells the story. Whenever I show that to my ‘Seattle is spesh’ friends they pretty much shutup. Makes me glad I sold in ‘06.

Good work.

Funny you should mention that, check out this article
Seattle-Tacoma in top 20 for worst homeowner debt

as seen on the “Open House” Real Estate Blog for the news Tribune.

I a, assuming homeowners in Seattle with their massive valuations, have used some of their home ownership to get lines of consumer credit, like the rest of the country has? I think that will be the real kick in the pants for the nouveau riche in Seattle. Suddenly they’ll be more nouveau débiteur!

And I think the Clise’s recent rtaking their chunk of the Regrade off the mareket for development is the toe of the other shoe falling; commercial real estate in the Puget Sound region.

I’m a life long renter, I just want rents to come back into my range. And I see more and more condos/apartments going up, so I’m hopeful. I’m also looking forward to the yard/rummage/fire sales!

I went back and corrected my above comment to reflect a full 12 months of decreasing values.

.95 raised to the 12th power is .54

I ask you, with your method of calculation what do you have after 20 months?

What I was trying to point out is that 5% month-to-month does not translate to 60% year-over-year. Consider the following series of numbers, each 5% less than the previous:

0: 100.0
1: 95.0
2: 90.3
3: 85.7
4: 81.5
5: 77.4
6: 73.5
7: 69.8
8: 66.3
9: 63.0
10: 59.9
11: 56.9
12: 54.0

At the end of 12 months, the final number is 46.0% lower than the starting point, not 60% lower.

SF March: 183.81
SF April: 174.54

174.54 is 94.96% of 183.31. A 5% monthly depreciation rate is 60% a yearly rate.

The number for LV:

March: 186.05
Aprill: 177.18

monthly rate: -4.76%
yearly rate: -57.12%

Man, thanks, I was having a boring day till you put that one out there. Btw, you owe me a new keyboard. ;)

Seriously, how is there supposed to be appreciation when the nation is headed into the biggest recession since 1930? Appreciation is tough to find when people can’t FIND JOBS. Also, have we all conveniently forgotten about the subprime that will hit NEXT year in addition to the Alt-A’s?

Lets not forget the fundamentals here people.

Just kiddin’, Maggie. Another 15%, and I’ll be joining you on the continued slide down.

As soon as that 500K house last summer in 400K, I’ll grab it and ride it down to 300K with you. Houses are nice to have, even if they’re a rotten investment.

Their big debate right now is that a county tracked by the MSA should not be included. Last year it was that San Francisco is the best market in the world so it would not be effected like other markets.I guess EVERYONE thinks some specific piece will be immune. The next thing I am waiting for is that the penthouse of the Ritz in downtown SF will not be effected. I guess that last part might be true though depending on how many billionaires out there value it.

That theory only works if people never actually have to sell their real estate and can hold it for an infinite amount of time before finding a buyer. Since that is certainly not true, a rational market dictates that the tightening of credit and higher interest rates will simply push prices down that much further. This is a big reason why I think the 20-30% declines people predict will end up being much more. While that will return us back to 2005 price levels it does not correct for the new credit environment that is much different from 2005.

As you point out, not many people have the $80k saved up for that $400k home that used to be $500k. All that means is the $500k home will not end up at $400k, it will have to continue to drop until it can find a buyer.

Here’s the annualized rates of depreciation for all the Case-Shiller-tracked cities based on their January-February declines:

Phoenix – AZ: 39.3%
Los Angeles: 40.8%
San Diego: 35.6%
San Francisco: 46.3%
Denver: 12.9%
Washington: 28.1%
Miami: 30.2%
Tampa – FL: 31.5%
Atlanta – GA: 11.2%
Chicago: 21.6%
Boston: 15.6%
Detroit – MI: 26.7%
Minneapolis – MN: 34.5%
Charlotte – NC: 4.3%
Las Vegas: 44.4%
New York: 11.5%
Cleveland – OH: 17.0%
Portland – OR: 15.9%
Dallas – TX: 8.2%
Seattle – WA: 11.1%
Composite-10: 28.8%
Composite-20: 27.2%

Not that I think this information is particularly meaningful, but there you go.

[Edited to correct above figures. Original comment showed 11 months instead of 12.]

add another 15% decline and many of you still can’t or won’t buy. New lending standards and tighter credit are here to stay. For people like me in the 800 fico. wise you will still need the large down. So for those of you cheering it will be nice to see if you are in a home in a few years. Is there a bubble yes I am ok so no sour grapes here since we got a great deal and last of the good financing deals which are no longer available. For many youwont have the 80k to put down on the 500k home that may end up at 400k if it when gets to that. Good luck

Oh how I love these “I can never be wrong” kinds of posts. They inevitably come from either someone who bought in the last year (AKA “The Top”) or someone who stands to make a commission from your purchase now (AKA “a REALTOR®”)

So as I am sitting here with money I made off one of your top-buying brethren sitting in the bank, waiting to be an even larger percentage down payment – I just have to laugh.

“the last of the good financing deals” LOL.

individual neighborhoods, especially in pierce & snohomish counties, could see 50% off, though

individual houses almost certainly will see drops in this range, though this may be due to the negative value added by disgruntled homedebtors being kicked out.

You’re right of course, for all the hype you hear about psychology/hysteria having so much effect on markets (both upward and downward), the reality is clear that the MOST important external force in real estate (other than simple supply and demand) is the availability and price of credit.

Thats why people who say there is not nation real estate market are wrong, because there is a national credit market (and an international market), and it is a very major driver for local real estate valuations.

The median price appreciation from early 2005 to July 2006 was about 24%. If we reduce that figure by 9% (moderate appreciation over three years), it sounds to me like David is predicting an additional 15% drop from where we are today. A little over 20% off the July ‘07 peak.

From what I’ve seen that’s close to the average prediction made by readers of this blog. So, I’m not sure why you’re insulting his intelligence, even if you think the drop is going to be higher than that (which I do).

BTW David, I won’t jump to a snap judgment about your intelligence (or lack of it), but I will comment on your website…

Yuck! Hire a professional, will you? You wouldn’t hire one of us yahoos to close a sale or inspect a property, so why’d you let your ten year old nephew build you a website?