I didn’t see him resorting to personal attacks. If you want to see rude head over to the market ticker forums or calculated risk… These trolls wouldn’t last 5 seconds at either place.

The discussion on here is more civil than any forum I’ve been on.

And I thanked you for it also.

Nobody has asked for peoples “personal” information and I would not expect anybody to post the MLS# for a house that they are personally bidding on but if a house has supposedly been “lost to a bidding war” and has already been purchased I would like to see that house.

Why?

Well…I would like to see what kind of a house it is. What is the quality of the house? Is it one of the multitudes of moldy roofed houses with couches on the front porch, badly cracked retaining walls and weeds growing up from the walkway that you see in those “ever so desirable” locations such as Greenlake and Ballard?

Or is it an impeccably remodeled house with a full Viking kitchen?

What was the starting asking price of these houses?

What did they end up selling for after the “bidding war”?

I don’t want to hear that “houses” are selling. I want to know *which* houses are selling and have someone actually point out a house and explain why they felt that multiple bids were justified. I’m not saying that they aren’t out there but it would be nice if these claims were substantiated with the public information that is readily available to all of us.

But of course…you’ll have trolls such as OC that throws out the “do you want my SSN#, income yada yada yada”

No. Just the facts ma’am.

“One has to wonder if OriginalCin, Jess and Angie are all “good buds”. You’ve (OC) got ALL the NAR talking points all the rhetoric and absolutely no facts to back it up. I believe that you’ve hit up EVERY possible topic in your posts. Your posts read like advertisements.”

Wow, really EconE? First, it’s obvious that I’m not a realtor because I know how to spell. Second, anyone who has careful reading skills would be able to discern easily that I am not a realtor. Go back and find all of my posts (here and on the forum) — with all of my hand-wringing, worrying, whining, general freaking-out, and all of the free therapy I received on this blog from kindly folks who understand banking/economics/emotional security and can see shades of grey (but not from curmudgeonly old EconE and Mr. C. Fiction — and who else is extra snarky with a one-trick dog show on this blog? I’ll throw in Sniglet for good measure, too) — and you really wish to argue that I’m a NAR person with no facts? I never threw facts out there except what I witnessed as a buyer — in a “woman on the streets” sort of way. I even gave you the addresses of the two houses we did not get (I’m not sure where that thread is — on this blog or in the forum somewhere). I keep coming back to read Tim’s research because I’m a SB addict, but the abuse of those who struggle with the need/desire to own a home is too much. Empty refrains, that’s all it’s becoming. “Now is a great time to buy!” = “80% off!” — the same empty rhetoric told by an idiot, full of sound and fury signifying nothing.

There is room for different people to have their own opinions.

This message brought to you by your friendly local Realtor.

When I got here first, I had lot of the same kinds of ideas as OriginalCin. If I remember my argument was that I should buy because 1) we had(have!) a lot of pets, 2) my wife wanted to 3) we’d do the long term thing.

The tact with which people pointed out my assumptions, caused me to take a closer look at the data presented here, and change my tune.

In my case it did make more sense to rent based on what my wife and I are looking for. When people pointed out my mistaken assumptions they were firm, they weren’t insulting. It made a big difference.

OriginalCin,

Good luck with which choice you make.

EconE…….spot on as usual.

Don’t they often become trolls on sites that somehow affront their sensibilites?

In addition, there is wishful thinking, boosterism, and denial vs. dispassionate analysis of reality. I don’t read this blog for the former. The question of whose reality this is, is a valid one too.

I would venture to guess Rentersarelosers would not be able to start from scratch and do the same things right here, right now, in Seattle. Especially since he is not even living here, and displays little knowledge of the area. One size does not fit all, but neither is anyone immune, no matter their perceived superiority.

She was happy being a “mediocre renter”?

Nothing but the latest brand of shill troll.

Easy to spot.

there is no need to be rude.

not everyone who disagrees with you is advertising something or good buds with a realtor. some people just have different opinions from you because they have a different perspective on things.

the idea that there is competition for the cheapest houses isn’t exactly a great talking point for the RE industry.

Personally, I can’t find something that rents for more than a mortgage. But then I’m not willing to exchange time with my family for a two hour round trip commute. I would rather move to a cheaper part of the country.

But everyone has their own priorities and I wish you the best of luck.

You’ve (OC) got ALL the NAR talking points all the rhetoric and absolutely no facts to back it up.

I believe that you’ve hit up EVERY possible topic in your posts.

Your posts read like advertisements.

You can rent a 3+ bedroom house in the burbs for half or less of the equivalent mortgage these days, just look on craigslist, they are not hard to find. I am sure your kids would rather have a father not stressed out about money than to have the shame of living in a rental house for 2-3 more years.

best of luck to you. i wouldn’t take the leap right now and i don’t see why you couldn’t just rent one of the many big suburban houses instead of buying, but whatever. maybe you’ll come out better in the long run.

or maybe you’ll see your equity erased in two years when big suburban land values drop faster than close-in neighborhood prices (the way it has happened everywhere else).

as long as it is affordable for you and you’re happy there, who cares what it is worth, i guess.

The constant stream of statistics showing 40% of sales have disappeared is more than enough proof the market is not hopeful or returning to normal any time soon. There will always be knife catchers salivating and presenting multiple bids so they can lose their dream house in foreclosure, anecdotes are never helpful when trying to view the big picture.

Granted, I will have to sacrifice my walk to work for an hour-long commute to get the home I want for the price I want.

Why is buying that important to you?

—Well, I was rather happy being the mediocre renter of a city apartment building, but I just (finally) got full custody of my children and opted for a much bigger place with a yard, and more kids in the neighborhood, and better schools, and lower crime rates, and, and, and…the list goes on. And not to prove a point or anything, but I did feel as though I were just making generous donations to someone else’s mortgage payment by paying rent, as affordable as it was. Now I’m my own landlord and will…far more likely than not…have a much greater profit when I do decide to pack it up and fly South one winter.
Some will argue that now is or is not the time to buy based on recession, pricing, inflation, foreclosure rates, etc. I, however, was in a “we’ve GOT to get the hell out of this cramped inner-city, one-bedroom apartment before we go ballistic and choke the life out of one another” situation. Since we pretty much had to move, I figured it might as well be into our own house. I’ve been told “It’s a buyer’s market! Just do it!” I think it’s a bit too MUCH of a buyer’s market for the type of home I’m looking for, so I stay on top of timelines, prices, offers and great deals because I have to.

The problem with arguing with ideologues, be they Marxists or the “it’s always a good time to buy RE” crowd, is that they always assume you are an advocate of the opposing ideology. In the case of RE, “it’s never a good time to buy”.

Because ideologues start with a fixed conclusion and select their evidence and twist their logic to support this, they can’t understand people who take a scientific approach, which looks at the facts first, applies unbiased logic, and then reaches a conclusion, which in the case of RE can mean it’s a good time buy or a good time to sell, based on the numbers.

The Homeownership Ideologues

Of course, local real estate tax is also deductible. Not that it puts that much more money back in your pocket…

http://www.irs.gov/taxtopics/tc503.html

-Rick

rentersarelosers, I’m calling bull"chocolate". I gave you a chance threw you a bone and you went on your way to nowhere. Why?

There’s no perspective in your comments. i’m an ownership booster but you came here with buckus. the tax deduction only works in combination of the home office or other business deductions. it’s also a multiple property deduction to off set other income. real estate is a business kid.

home ownership is something different.

the interst thing is totally psychological in the long term commitment of home ownership is. yes the rate will rise to off set inflation but the inflation itself will drive up home prices, it’s kind of a wash.

so i don’t get what your doing here but it’s not a perspective.

I was not exaggerating when describing 20 years of stagnant prices in Texas and Japan. My parents sold our home in Houston at the height of the early 80’s oil boom for about 225k. A developer bought the forest land around our house and built new homes there. The bottom fell out of the real estate market, and a good friend of mine (from Japan) bought one of the homes behind our old place for $45,000. It was a beautiful place, 3 bedrooms, cathedral ceilings. Today, on Zillow, my parent’s house is valued at 250,000. And this is 25 years later! That is what is coming. People on this blog are far too conservative in their estimates. The homes in this area could fall an additional 35 to 50 percent, followed by 20 to 25 years of slow recovery. If you have a condo, I wouldn’t want to think about how ugly it will be. No more land? Are you serious? Haven’t you seen how many condos they build on 10 square acres?

Granted, I will have to sacrifice my walk to work for an hour-long commute to get the home I want for the price I want.

Why is buying that important to you?

I wouldn’t go on Rain City Real Estate and with a name of “Real Estate Agents are Losers” and expect to be warmly received.

The guy is obviously an antagonistic douchebag looking to pick a fight with the same tired talking points.

“You are less of a human being because you rent. Renters can’t be rich, renters are poor, renters a lepers destined to wander the world while people stare at them in disgust”. blah blah blah.

I make 6 figures, I’ve made an absolute killing taking the money I’ve saved by renting and shorting the financials. I intend on buying, I don’t intend to rent forever, but why buy right now when everything is going to be cheaper in a year or two? If that makes me an idiot or less of a human being than so be it, I don’t need to buy right now as a status symbol. And if some dbag wants to come on the blog and call me a “LOSER” BFD.

I understand that this site attracts people who agree with its premise (and trolls).

But, if the people who are typically on here (who are likely to be the MOST pessimistic) are even *thinking* about considering the possibility that the end may be in sight… that probably means that the people who are oblivious to the SeattleBubble (and its teachings) are even more hopeful about the future… I think we can see that in the little anecdotal stories about multiple offers on places in their price range that there is atleast some evidence that things could be changing.. I don’t want to mistake ‘hope’ for the usual spring time rush though.

You are missing the bigger picture. Everyone may agree on this blog, but thats because it attracts people who agree with its thesis. I would venture to say that MOST regular people still believe that RE is in a temporary slump and that it will likely continue its upwards trajectory soon if it hasn’t already.

The only thing higher interest rates will do is push down prices. Very few people buy the principle, they buy the payment. That is the reason we got into this mess in the first place, Burger King workers “affording” the payment on their neg-am option arm without any relation to the price paid. Higher rates mean lower prices on average.

Once in a while I like to take a step back to measure ’sentiment’. If you take the aggregate of all the posts on the SB, this particular thread (and a couple of recent comments made on others) mark a divergence in sentiment of ‘the housing market will not appreciate in the forseeable future”.

So, either this guy is *new* and is just acknowledging the bubble or he is bringing his experience and opinion to the table (which may have some level of reality).

Just by the fact that he was so bitterly and actively refuted leads me to believe that the opinion on the SB has swung too far in one direction. (the koolaid has been ingested by all).

Time to consider the possibilities… in stocks and realestate: when *everyone* agrees, its likely time to change your plan (or atleast evaluate the herd’s decision).

An interesting point, which I had not yet begun to contemplate is the effect of interest rate hikes. I can see a .25% increase having a psychological effect on buyers… right now they have no urgency… they are in wait and see mode… I think ‘rentersarelosers’ is onto something there.

Mr “rentersarelosers”, this blog is highly tolerant of different viewpoints. Of course, there are exceptions, but the issue with YOU in particular is two-fold:

1) You decided to call yourself “rentersarelosers”. This is like me, as a straight man, going to a blog for gay people and choosing a nickname like “gaypeoplesuck” and then complaining when they all react like I’m a dick. Pun intended.

2) You made the classic mistake of thinking that there are only two possible choices. (a) Buy real estate IMMEDIATELY or (b) never buy real estate EVER, and become a permanent member of the renter sub-class. In fact there is a 3rd choice and that is ( c) rent for now, while saving money for a down-payment while watching houses go down in price, and THEN buy.

I’d say that 90% of the renters on this site are in this third elusive category. They’re not against home ownership, and they want to buy sometime. Sure, some of them are entitled and whiny, but that’s the distinct minority.

I own a place, BTW, but that doesn’t really matter. What matters is the ability to have civil discourse in a forum such as this. That takes a person of good character because, after all, it’s easy to turn up to an anonymous forum and act like an ass, as you did.

It saves me about 4K annually for example

Which comes out to 25 years of savings if I can avoid losing $100k on a purchase.

The problem is that the mortgage interest deduction has diminishing returns, while the other taxes you must pay (property and sales tax) for the RE will very likely increase over time. I do not know when the inflection point is, but for most people I think there is probably only a real tax advantage for maybe 5 years (highest interest payment years) before it becomes a tax burden overall.

the tax savings of $4k per year from the federal income tax deduction is roughly equal to the $4k in property taxes that the average homeowner in Seattle has to pay.

what else is that $4k in property tax roughly equal to? two months worth of rent income one might expect from a $400k house.

this may be a good point. my income is modest enough and my primary investments are of the pre-tax persuasion, so my tax liability is minimal. the model is good for me as it stands.

but the model should be as flexible and accurate as possible. how should it be modified to accommodate for people with higher tax liabilities?

I’ll second that but with the caveat that the tone of the comments often put the Bitter in Bitter Renter until the worm turned a few months ago…. I will say that in Tim’s “Buy vs. Rent” comparisons he seems to be underestimating the income tax implications. At median income it doesn’t help much, certainly not enough to use it as a reason to take on a mortgage, but once you get to 30-40% above median income if you can’t take advantage of the mortgage interest deduction you are getting screwed by the IRS. It saves me about 4K annually for example

Buying an asset only makes you a winner in the long run if the price is reasonable. If you buy an asset at a greatly inflated price, you may never come out ahead in the long run. Like someone who bought CSCO in 2001.

And no, “coming out ahead” does not mean selling something for a higher nominal return than you paid for it. It means the income from your asset exceeds financing costs over the long run.

It’s been asked many times before, but which do you think will happen first, your salary doubling or median house prices dropping by 40-50%?

We already “won” by selling.

We invested the proceeds.

Those investments did better than housing.

There will come a time to be a homeowner again.

Now is not that time.

As someone who is investing for a long time surely you understand that markets change and there is no sure bet. Buying a home 30 years ago until today was a pretty good investment in retrospect, due to how the housing market has played out. Buying a home since around 2003/2004 looks like it will not be a good investment in retrospect, and might become a very bad investment over the next few years as least. Do you also believe that buying a stock at any time for any price is always a good investment because on average the S&P will return 7%+ in the long run? Would you make a 4x leveraged investment of several hundred thousand dollars based on that kind of thinking? That is basically what you are telling people here to do. Buy at any price because it is always the best thing ever! Do you realize how stupid that sounds?

mnt n dsrspct whn chs tht hndl, th ntntn ws t ndct tht rntrs r (fnncl) lsrs n th lng rn, hmwnrs r nd wll cntn t b th (fnncl) wnnrs.< hrf="#" clss="rplyt" nclck="rplyt('47391','∓#91;trll∓#93;',''); rtrn fls;">Rply – < hrf="#" clss="qt" nclck="qt('47391','∓#91;trll∓#93;','Dv\r\n\r\n mnt n dsrspct whn chs tht hndl, th ntntn ws t ndct tht rntrs r (fnncl) lsrs n th lng rn, hmwnrs r nd wll cntn t b th (fnncl) wnnrs.',''); rtrn fls;">Qt

I think about my long-term financial planning everyday. It’s just I’ve come to the conclusion that in the current market, I am better off renting for at least the next 12 months, after that who knows, it will depend on the state of the markets.

I may have come off as mean, but so does the name “Rentersarelosers”. All I’m doing is counterbalancing your attacks. If you originally posted in a nicer way, I would have too.