Yesterday I predicted that the local reporting would focus on the paltry month-to-month median price increase, backed up by a plethora of quotes from peppy real estate agents. Today’s reporting, for the most part, does not disappoint.
I’m starting to get the impression as I read some of these articles that the reporters are just as amused by agents’ blatant denial as I am. My sarcast-o-meter is detecting a slight hint of intentional irony in the juxtaposition of facts and figures that paint an increasingly drab picture of the market with upbeat comments from local agents that continue to insist that things are getting better every day. Maybe I’m reading too much into it. You be the judge.
Click below for the usual roundup of this month’s reporting.
Elizabeth Rhodes, Seattle Times: Home prices in King County continue upward trend
With the release today of April home sales statistics, King County’s single-family home prices now have climbed three months in a row — but still are significantly below a year ago.
…
Still, the countywide trend is upward, a common price movement in springtime when owners buff up their homes for sale and buyers appear.
…
Houses were selling briskly, according to a Windermere analysis, which found that a little less than half of in-city houses sold within a 30 days. A quarter more within two months.
Wow, everything sure was coming up roses when Ms. Rhodes whipped this quick little piece up. However, today’s more in-depth article wasn’t quite as upbeat.
Elizabeth Rhodes, Seattle Times: Buyers drive hard bargains in Puget Sound area real-estate market
With home sales soft, agents like Windermere’s Mark Corcoran say most sellers must make concessions to be competitive.
Corcoran, whose main territory is North Seattle, recently represented the seller of a $700,000 home that quickly attracted two offers. Both were at least 10 percent below asking price, and his client declined them.
But with the real-estate market in the doldrums — April sales and prices were down from last year, according to Northwest Multiple Listing Service figures released Monday — buyers are driving hard bargains. Turning down an offer could leave sellers waiting a long time for another.
After about a month, with no buyers in sight, Corcoran’s seller agreed to drop the price 5 percent. That brought a buyer who wanted the house fumigated and the hardwood floors refinished. Again the seller declined.
Finally, a fourth offer came in. It was for 2 percent below the lower asking price. But that wasn’t all: The buyer also wanted the roof cleaned and repaired, a garage door replaced, a trench dug in the crawl space and several minor repairs.
This time the seller didn’t dicker.
The article mentions the large number of homes on the market several times, but never comes right out and says that the current inventory is at an all-time high (as best as I can measure, going back to 1988), and we’re only in April. One other interesting tidbit from this article is a mention of Zillow’s latest quarterly reports, which claims that “nearly 30 percent of local owners who bought last year owe more on their homes than they’re worth (source).” But, I thought last year was a great time to buy?
Aubrey Cohen, Seattle P-I: Seattle house prices slide in April
The latest statistics, released Monday, showed Seattle house prices continuing to wilt during the first full month of spring, while King County as a whole showed signs of rejuvenation.
Seattle’s median house price was $440,000 in April, down 2.4 percent from March and 8.3 percent from April 2007, the Northwest Multiple Listing Service said. The April median was 12.2 percent lower than the all-time high of $501,000 in August 2007.
The county’s median house price, $448,500, increased 2 percent from March, making it the highest it has been since September. But it fell 3.5 percent from the April 2007 median and 6.8 percent from the record high of $477,345 in August.
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Glenn Crellin, director of the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at Washington State University, said he did not pay much attention to anything other than changes from the same months of previous years, because of typical seasonal variations.“The fact that it is down a little bit (year over year), I think, is where the real story is,” he said.
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Buyers had more selection and less competition in April than they did a year earlier, continuing the trend of recent months.The number of homes on the market in Seattle was up nearly 58 percent in April from a year earlier while pending sales, which are the best indicator of the most-recent activity, were down about 32 percent. The county’s inventory was up nearly 56 percent in April from a year earlier, while pending sales were down 33 percent.
The listing service, in a news release accompanying the numbers, highlighted that April’s pending sales total for the 19 counties it covers was the highest in eight months, mentioning later that the total fell 32 percent from April 2007.
Maybe it’s just me, but that bit about the NWMLS press release seemed to almost be making fun of them (as much as you can get away with in the newspaper anyway), especially in light of the earlier quote from Glenn Crellin about YOY being all that matters. Overall, Aubrey’s article is fairly even-handed. He’s definitely been doing a good job lately of reporting the actual market news, rather than the NWMLS spin.
Herald Staff, Everett Herald: Snohomish County home sales, prices droop
Home sales and prices in Snohomish County continued to slump in April, according to the latest numbers from the Northwest Multiple Listing Service.
The combined median price for local houses and condominiums was $330,000 last month, a 5.7 percent drop from the $349,950 median price posted a year ago.
Inventory increased by nearly 37 percent, rising to 7,456 homes on the county market.
Pending sales dropped by nearly 42 percent, and the 732 completed sales marked a nearly 40 percent drop from a year ago.
I guess Mike Benbow must be on vacation this week, because this little “just the facts” blurb seems to be all we’re going to get out of the Everett Herald.
Devona Wells, Tacoma News Tribune: Tacoma-area home prices continue to fall, but not quite so fast:
Year-over-year home prices in Pierce County continued to fall in April as sales activity also dropped at the start of the typically hot spring selling season. The median price of a home, including stand-alone houses and condominiums, was $263,051 last month, a 4.3 percent drop from the same month in 2007, according to numbers released Monday by the Northwest Multiple Listing Service.
It’s the seventh year-over-year price drop in the last eight months. Median means half of all homes sell for more and half for less.
Sales, meanwhile, fell 18.9 percent.
Spring did start slowly, said Coldwell Banker Bain agent Margo Hass Klein. But she said traffic in the last couple weeks has increased by at least 10 percent at open houses.
Buyers, however, continue to try to time the market by watching houses they like and hoping for price reductions, said Hass Klein, a practice she recommends against.
“I tell buyers, if you like it, what is $10,000 going to mean in a purchase price? If it’s that important, go ahead and wait and chance losing it,” she said.
…
“We’ve had 10 months to adjust to this new normal and the market is moving back to a new normalcy,” said Re/Max agent George Pilant.April’s price and sales numbers, Pilant said, came in better than he expected, particularly considering last month’s unusual winterlike weather.
“Spring was late coming this year,” said Pilant, who’s also a member of the state Real Estate Commission. “It’s hard during an open house to look out the window and see snow.”
Michael Handy, a broker/branch manager at a Windermere office, predicted price increases will make a comeback in 2008 as buyers see that today’s market helps them get what they want for less.
Wow, this one has a ton of great nuggets. First we’ve got the scare-mongering “go ahead and try to time the market—I dare you,” and agents’ new favorite market measure: the ever-nebulous “traffic at open houses.” Then we have the “new normalcy” nonsense, whatever that’s supposed to mean. And we cap it all off with a nod to our old standby scapegoat: the weather. Top notch stuff here, really amusing. Show us the statistics, then follow it up with a parade of agents in denial, spouting increasingly ridiculous explanations and excuses.
Jim Szymanski, The Olympian: Sun comes out on home sales
Rebounding pending home sales last month were a sign that there might be new energy in the Northwest real estate market, Realtors said Monday.
Pending single-family house and condominium sales in a 19-county region last month reached the highest level since August, the Northwest Multiple Listing Service reported. Northwest brokers reported 6,208 pending sales (offers made and accepted but not yet closed), the highest monthly amount since 7,751 last August. The region includes western and central Washington counties.
South Sound Realtors said improving weather and buyers with income tax returns in hand are coming off the sidelines to help slowing house and condo sales.
“The sun’s out, and real estate is going fine,” said Paul Klenk, a Realtor for Van Dorm Realty. “I think we’re going to have a good market this spring and summer.”
Though real estate agents are optimistic with the coming of spring, sales remain lower this year than last.
Szymanski disappoints with his first reporting roundup appearance, doing little more than regurgitating the NWMLS press release. That’s not reporting Jim, that’s just repeating.
Here’s a bonus for you: a 4-minute radio report from 710 KIRO.
Tim Haeck, 710 KIRO: Home prices fall, sales rise in Puget Sound
It was August the last time we saw these numbers for pending sales in Western Washington. More than 6,200 offers accepted, but not yet closed. It might be the end of the housing slump, or it might just be the time of year.
I love the picture they include alongside the report, even though it has no caption and doesn’t look like it’s even from around here.
(Elizabeth Rhodes, Seattle Times, 05.05.2008)
(Elizabeth Rhodes, Seattle Times, 05.06.2008)
(Aubrey Cohen, Seattle P-I, 05.05.2008)
(Herald Staff, Everett Herald, 05.06.2008)
(Devona Wells, Tacoma News Tribune, 05.05.2008)
(Jim Szymanski, Olympian, 05.05.2008)
(Tim Haeck, 710 KIRO, 05.06.2008)
Business reporters generally report stories based on who is pitching them, which in real estate is almost always entirely agents and those who work with real estate.
If you think you have info that should be in there, send a news release to the paper with your viewpoint like the agents do. There is no vast conspiracy in the MSM, only laziness, and no one is doing for the other viewpoint what agents and developers and the NAR do for the positive spin.
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As someone who has dealt with the press a fair amount in the past (albeit, not in this realm of coverage) I have to echo what Garth is saying. It’s generally easy to get them to write what you want – whether that is a factor of lazy or overworked I don’t know.
If you sent out a press release every month (after getting access to the numbers), you’d probably get picked up in the second wave of coverage.
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IF I WAS A BANKER, I’D TELL EVERYONE YOUR MONEY IS SAFE AND SOUND TOO
So stop picking on the realitors, they have their own jumbo mortgages to pay off too.
If I was an air carrier I’d tell you how roomy all the coach seats are and the flights are never late.
If I was a politician I’d tell you I’m for change and stay away from the issues, just talk in pointless platitudes….hey, that’s how you make it America, ya lie.
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And while you are doing a reporting round up, there is a news that you should cover. Though not specific to Seattle, WSJ is proclaiming that Housing crisis is over.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121003604494869449.html?mod=opinion_main_commentaries
we did peak 18 months after some of the other markets but will be also bottom out 10 months later?
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If you were a softwareengineer would you say that all of your code was bug free?
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Chiana – That article was thoroughly shredded over at:
http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2008/05/is-housing-crisis-over.html
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Hmmmmmmm ….Well….3 words. Busy Busy Busy….But then again why shouldn’t we be. So is Walmart. I just returned from the “Land of Collapse” in Sacramento and Reno. Strangely enough homes are selling everywhere. I found many less on the mkt and most likely absorbed as rentals.
My good friend who bought a model from a builder in Sparks, who went belly up, we noticed that ALL the models SOLD. People were moving in the homes and having yard sales selling their old furniture for they all got the NEW stuff from the builder. These homes were 580-600k and NOW all sold for 380k and 390k.
A temporary blip up? Deals to hard to pass up? Not sure but make no mistake about it. Homes are exchanging hands.
Ray Pepper
http://www.500Realty.net
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Chaina -
It is an opinion piece by a hedge fund manager who is deeply invested in home builders and financials. What do you think he is going to say?
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pwntastic
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I must be a really poor, stupid, bitter renter because 10 grand sounds like a lot of money to me.
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“…..These homes were 580-600k and NOW all sold for 380k and 390k.
A temporary blip up? Deals to hard to pass up? Not sure but make no mistake about it. Homes are exchanging hands…… ”
Ding, ding, ding…… basically that is it.
No need for bailouts or gov’t intervention. No need to whine or cry. All sellers everywhere have to do are just 2 simple things:
1) be realistic and lower prices to a reasonable level and the houses will sell
2) realize that a house’s value is not guarantee to go up; you’ve made a bad decision and bought at the wrong time, now just repair your financial life and move on so the country as a whole can move on……..
That’s the solution to the housing problem….
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Ray Pepper, I tend to agree that a significant number of people (investors mostly) are jumping in and buying now that prices look so “cheap” in comparison to recent highs.
A good friend of mine just picked up a rental property held in REO inventory, and I’ve had a few other friends with the means to buy starting to scout out opportunities.
This leads me to believe we have a way to go before the market, nationwide and in Seattle, hits bottom. The prices many of these people are paying for rental units are still historically quite high given the income potential. They only look like smoking deals because they went from Ridiculously Overpriced to Moderately Overpriced in a relatively short time period.
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Joel, my thoughts also. Once again, RE agents show their true colors. They are not looking out for their client’s interests, they are trying to push people into sales so they can make their commission (I know some are not like that, but it sure seems like the majority are). When this bubble has finally collapsed, will the general public have a different attitude about RE agents? They understand that a car salesman is not a professional consultant, will they get it that RE agents are sales people, whose job is to get the sale done? Back in the days before the internet, you had no choice but to use an agent, they kept the MLS listings in a card file and unless you drove all over the city you’d never be able to see what was on sale. The entire RE industry was built on this hoarded information, but times have changed and it’s hard to see what the average RE agent brings to the transaction these days.
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I thought there were some really interesting quotes in that article:
and
and
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Wonder why KIRO got the picture from Dallas? Plenty of FS signs in front of half built houses in Seattle.
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“unusual winterlike weather” ???
is this person a recent CA transplant maybe?
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i think our housing glut is going to get far worse before this is over.
2008 – 65 = 1943
and with social security and medicare due for cuts and the dollar inflating away to nothing, i imagine the boomer curve will intensify fast. 1946 was the year population really began to explode. 1946 + 65 = 2011. so i’d bet we won’t be out of this housing crisis by a long shot before that one starts to hit.
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i should have put “crisis” in quotes. i think reversion to the long-term means is a healthy thing for everyone.
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Comparing today’s house prices to the 1970s or 1980s, when mortgage rates were stratospheric, is misguided and misleading.
That’s why I say you need to compare monthly carrying cost to the current rent on a comparable dwelling. Then you need to ask youself how much more (or less) are you willing to pay to buy.
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Garth-
Please give the Interest Rate argument rate a rest. When interest rates were at 19%, houses were 40k (or 8k/ year in interest).
Now, median values are 450K…at 5.7% interest rate, that is over 24,000 a year in INTEREST!!!…and that doesn’t even touch on insurance and upkeep. Not to mention, you are leveraging yourself to the max to buy a depreciating asset. I’ll save my down payment and invest in alternative energy companies, and we will see who is in better shape in 10 years!.
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Unless inflation slows soon the Fed will have to raise interest rates. Besides, the interest rate can’t stay this low forever, it will go up. We had 18% interest rates before, we will see them again. Maybe not this year or next but eventually. The low interest rate logic explains some (not all) of the insane housing prices but it can also be applied to higher interest rates; home prices will go down as interest rates go up.
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Mike when I walked down the street and spoke to all the New neighbors they were REAL families not investors at all. They saw a perceived bargain and bought. I sent Tim an email including the PIKS of the Model home and all the accessories..Maybe he will post it. Just amazing. At 370k , 2700 sq feet, loaded with ALL upgrades,furniture,paintings,kitchenware,curtains, etc. All 4 selling indicates the same. 2 negatives of this home purchase:
1. He must convert the garage back to a garage. Its a showroom now. Complete with the table and pictures of the homes all over the walls. Estimate is 10k. He must also get rid of the walking path that leads you to all the models. When he pulls it up he has some yard work to do.
2. Far more important he must still work in San Jose. He works for Network Appliance. The same home in San Jose would be nearly 2 million. So they decided he would fly in/out while having his family in a beautiful community 4 hours away. His rent was 3000 a month. His payment now is 2500.00. I hope it works out for him.
Personally I’m finding many GOOD deals out there but not GREAT. I did buy another commercial building in Tacoma but other then that I keep looking for my GEMS. No more single family homes for me. I just keep looking for the same thing everywhere. The old homes/buildings that are zoned commercial. They are in most every city. With more and more people working out of their residence these become a NO BRAINER but can be very hard to find. Anyone have one let me know. ***Anything resembling MLS # 27147831 Give me a call ***But, it must be UNDER 300k**
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Captain Kirkland,
That is a quote from the WSJ article posted earlier that I said I thought was interesting, not an argument I made. I do kind of wish i ran a hedge fund and was asked to write opinion pieces in the WSJ :)
Empirically, everyone I know who purchased a home with a 12-17% loan in the eighties is now a raging housing bull.
One of the most interesting things I saw in that article was his breaking out of the percentage of income spent on housing for first time homeowners vs veteran homeowners.
One thing I have seen posted on the blog alot that I completely agree with is that it does not make any financial sense to buy a median priced house in Seattle on the median income as far too high a percentage of your income goes to housing. Without enough income there is not enough overall taxes paid to get back an appreciable amount of the interest you paid.
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WSJ is proclaiming that Housing crisis is over.
This of course is the same WSJ that ran this piece claiming in July 2005, no less, that there was no housing bubble:
COMMENTARY
What Housing Bubble?
By NEIL BARSKY
July 28, 2005; Page A10
If you want to be scared out of your wits these days, you basically have two choices: go watch Steven Spielberg’s latest, or listen to the hysterical warnings of economists and journalists about the imminent popping of our so-called housing bubble. Robert Shiller, the ubiquitous Yale economist, says home prices could fall 50% from their peak.
Taking things a step further, The Economist recently went so far as to call the global housing boom “the biggest bubble in history.”
In a free country, it is fair game for the media and economists to scare homeowners with words of gloom and doom, however knee-jerk, consensual and misguided they may be. But housing is a serious business; for most of us, it is our most valuable asset. For generations of immigrants, home ownership has represented the realization of the American dream.
The reality is this: There is no housing bubble in this country. Our strong housing market is a function of myriad factors with real economic underpinnings: low interest rates, local job growth, the emotional attachment one has for one’s home, one’s view of one’s future earning- power, and parental contributions, all have done their part to contribute to rising home prices..
HAHAHAHAHA
What Housing Bubble? (pdf)
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The picture actually looks like it is from an area in the Bay Area.
Speaking of the Bay Area… Vallejo just voted to file for Bankruptcy. Somehow I doubt this will be the last city casualty.
For those that aren’t familiar with the area; Vallejo is a major suburb just West of San Francisco.
Here is the Bloomberg report: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=atl3yFmV508A
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“I love the picture they include alongside the report, even though it has no caption and doesn’t look like it’s even from around here”, says The Tim.
By MARCY GORDON
The Associated Press
“Further housing-slump news came Tuesday from Dallas-based D.R. Horton, the country’s biggest homebuilder. It reported that hefty charges and property write-downs swung it to a second-quarter loss of $1.31 billion, or $4.14 a share, from a year-earlier profit of $51.7 million, or 16 cents a share”
DR Horton confirming Seattle Bubble!
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“That’s why I say you need to compare monthly carrying cost to the current rent on a comparable dwelling. Then you need to ask youself how much more (or less) are you willing to pay to buy.”
That’s exactly right, although I would extend it a bit because I think it’s hard to objectively decide how much more you’re willing to pay. I mean, how much is too much?
First, I’d define the carrying costs (from an ownership perspective) as being Interest plus Insurance plus Taxes plus maintenance minus Tax deduction *beyond* standard deduction. You should not include principal payment in these carrying costs, although of course you should get a mortgage that actually amortizes and includes principal. No IO mortgages!
Make calculations that maintenance, insurance and taxes increase over time with inflation, and also that your interest portion of the payment significantly *decreases* over time, along with the deduction you get from that. Overall, your “carrying costs” as defined above decrease over time because the interest payment decrease outweighs the deduction decrease and inflationary components.
Then calculate equivalent rent and renters insurance for that property and also assume that it will go up over time with inflation.
Now you can calculate for any given point in time in the future what the “cost” of owning vs renting that property will be. You’ll find that right now most properties “cost” more to buy but that they’ll cost less compared to rent in a few years, depending on how overpriced the property is. In my mind, if a property costs less to buy within 5 years, and you’re willing to stay there for a long long while, then it’s not a bad deal.
I mean, if you have a 30 year mortgage and for the latter 25 years that property will cost less than renting, then that’s a great deal. The principal component is not included in this cost so you obviously need to have extra money than if you were renting. But you’re paying that to yourself in the form of increased equity, and the return on that money is going to vary depending on the property appreciation (or depreciation!) over the time you own the property.
This is not an argument to BUY BUY BUY now, as you’re always better off buying lower than higher. But if you really must buy right now and can objectively evaluate a property and be happy with the time horizon between cost-of-owning and cost-of-renting, then by all means go ahead and buy it. Just have a down-payment for Christ’s sake, and don’t dog about not making any money if you need to sell in the next 5 years or so.
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Great comment, NotaBull, and very clearly stated.
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That’s the solution to the housing problem….
ok i noticed, thanks for the compliment.
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NotABull, You forgot about the lost opportunity cost of having your capital tied up in real estate instead of an investment that historically performs better.
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Not all real estate agents are bad! I was going to buy a condo in Ballard last year and my real estate just flat out told me to rent until 2009. She said go build downpayment and she will call me in 2009. She works for windemere and I have enormous respect for her.
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Gitano,
That’s pretty wild. I know a few Windermere agents and they are currently telling all their clients that now is the time to buy. They not moving their listings, so they’re putting their buyer’s agent hat on. Telling your clients to purchase items that you know are going to decrease within the next year is unethical at best. As one Windermere agent told me, this whole bubble thing is just “hype from the media. People see the national problem and think that it’s here in Seattle too. We have a strong economy and x, y, z….”
-David
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Vallejo is a major suburb just West of San Francisco.
What’s west of San Francisco?
Vallejo is not major either, it’s a marginal exurb.
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Gitano, I never met a salesman with that kind of advice. How do they stay in business? I’d guess most agents are telling people the same thing they always say. Buy now!
I have a question for the agents: does a really good agent basically try to tell a buyer whatever it is he thinks you want to hear? Do they tell you these lines in agent school or do people just pick it up?
You bought last year? Right move at the time.
Going to buy now? Great time to buy!
Waiting? You sir, are very wise. Call me when you’re ready
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George,
A good agent is one who is acting in their client’s best interests. I’ve never uttered the phrase “now is a great time to buy’ and would probably choke on those words if I tried.
At the same time, people have different reasons for wanting to buy. I’m always willing to help people find the home they want, but I never fail to tell them that prices are falling and will likely continue to, and that inventory is very high, putting pressure on prices.
But once I given my ” this is not a great time to buy” spiel, what am I supposed to do? I’m a real estate agent. If they still want to buy, I’ll do my best to get them the house they want at the lowest possible price….And yes, in agent school they teach you how to overcome buyer’s resistance. I listen to clients and don’t waste their time guiding them to houses I know they won’t like.
I like your agent, Gitano. My kind of girl.
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“NotABull, You forgot about the lost opportunity cost of having your capital tied up in real estate instead of an investment that historically performs better.”
Alan,
That is true. I might modify my spreadsheet to include this, and to also include any additional “investment” payments you could make with extra cash once you got the point of owning being cheaper than renting, including principal paydown. This darn spreadsheet is going to get very complicated!
If you look at a house as an “investment” I think it’s really hard to justify at most times a house cycle.
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NASA offers perfect short term bail out plan to ride out the market.
http://blog.wired.com/wiredscience/2008/05/nasa-offers-500.html
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