Comments on: Revisiting the Distressed Sellers Index http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/05/21/revisiting-the-distressed-sellers-index/ News & discussion about real estate & the housing bubble in the Seattle area. Sat, 21 Nov 2009 10:02:55 -0800 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.6 hourly 1 By: TJ_98370 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/05/21/revisiting-the-distressed-sellers-index/#comment-48472 TJ_98370 Thu, 22 May 2008 02:59:43 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=1970#comment-48472 A little additional info related to my previous post (#3). – My coworker said that the reason his original asking was $435K in late 2004 was because that was what a similar house in the neighborhood sold for back then. He also said that he had received an offer of $380K last fall that he rejected and now wishes that he hadn’t, and that he had been receiving alot of lo-ball offers lately. And finally he said the reason he accepted $330K was because he did not want to sell at $280K this fall. All this coming from a guy who used ARM financing and is admittedly a speculating investor who obviously sees the writing on the wall. Notice how the MLS description of his house indicates that it was “…..priced thousands under comparable homes….”

Sequim isn’t Seattle, but there is no reason to not believe this anecdotal example will not be duplicated in the urban areas also. My coworker is a smart guy. He made good money on other recent real estate transactions. He went into the “damage control” mode when he recognized the trend, ignored Realtor pricing suggestions, priced this house to sell and got out. Time will tell if he made a wise decision.

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]]> By: TheHulk http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/05/21/revisiting-the-distressed-sellers-index/#comment-48469 TheHulk Wed, 21 May 2008 22:56:16 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=1970#comment-48469 Ha Patient! <b><i>"My guess is that more people than already will need whatever cash flow they have and are not inclined to take on more expenses/debt." </i></b> If only people had thought about this on 06/07 when they were buying houses exceeding 6x annual income with 0% down. Granted, there will be some people who genuinely faced issues and now have serious problems keeping their house (divorce, job loss, medical problem etc.) I have genuine sympathy for them. For all others who overextended themselves, I say lets brand the mark of foreclosure on their foreheads. Well maybe thats what people would do in medieval times, these days it comes on the credit report !<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('48469','TheHulk',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('48469','TheHulk','Ha Patient!\r\n\r\n<b><i>\"My guess is that more people than already will need whatever cash flow they have and are not inclined to take on more expenses\/debt.\" <\/i><\/b>\r\n\r\nIf only people had thought about this on 06\/07 when they were buying houses exceeding 6x annual income with 0% down. Granted, there will be some people who genuinely faced issues and now have serious problems keeping their house (divorce, job loss, medical problem etc.) I have genuine sympathy for them.\r\n\r\nFor all others who overextended themselves, I say lets brand the mark of foreclosure on their foreheads. Well maybe thats what people would do in medieval times, these days it comes on the credit report !',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> Ha Patient!

“My guess is that more people than already will need whatever cash flow they have and are not inclined to take on more expenses/debt.”

If only people had thought about this on 06/07 when they were buying houses exceeding 6x annual income with 0% down. Granted, there will be some people who genuinely faced issues and now have serious problems keeping their house (divorce, job loss, medical problem etc.) I have genuine sympathy for them.

For all others who overextended themselves, I say lets brand the mark of foreclosure on their foreheads. Well maybe thats what people would do in medieval times, these days it comes on the credit report !

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]]> By: softwarengineer http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/05/21/revisiting-the-distressed-sellers-index/#comment-48468 softwarengineer Wed, 21 May 2008 22:49:21 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=1970#comment-48468 NO MORE RATE CUTS EITHER Finding a qualified buyer [that wants to go in debt with this recession axe over all our jobs] is going to get worse and worse. I always felt a good loan amount is about 20-25% of your net pay left after other debt payments. That's if you're younger and anticipate wage increases too [wage increases for anyone in the future, especially factoring in hyper-inflation for food and energy?]. If you're 50, I always felt that's when you pay off your house loan off [or equivalent, like the principle owed is cash in the bank, not for spending], to prepare for retirement in 10-15 years. My rules would make Seattle house prices decrease at least 50-75%, but what do I know....I just live my life out of debt. I guess I'm a dummy. Or am I?<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('48468','softwarengineer',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('48468','softwarengineer','NO MORE RATE CUTS EITHER\r\n\r\nFinding a qualified buyer [that wants to go in debt with this recession axe over all our jobs] is going to get worse and worse. I always felt a good loan amount is about 20-25% of your net pay left after other debt payments. That\'s if you\'re younger and anticipate wage increases too [wage increases for anyone in the future, especially factoring in hyper-inflation for food and energy?]. \r\n\r\nIf you\'re 50, I always felt that\'s when you pay off your house loan off [or equivalent, like the principle owed is cash in the bank, not for spending], to prepare for retirement in 10-15 years. \r\n\r\nMy rules would make Seattle house prices decrease at least 50-75%, but what do I know....I just live my life out of debt. I guess I\'m a dummy. Or am I?',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> NO MORE RATE CUTS EITHER

Finding a qualified buyer [that wants to go in debt with this recession axe over all our jobs] is going to get worse and worse. I always felt a good loan amount is about 20-25% of your net pay left after other debt payments. That’s if you’re younger and anticipate wage increases too [wage increases for anyone in the future, especially factoring in hyper-inflation for food and energy?].

If you’re 50, I always felt that’s when you pay off your house loan off [or equivalent, like the principle owed is cash in the bank, not for spending], to prepare for retirement in 10-15 years.

My rules would make Seattle house prices decrease at least 50-75%, but what do I know….I just live my life out of debt. I guess I’m a dummy. Or am I?

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]]> By: patient http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/05/21/revisiting-the-distressed-sellers-index/#comment-48465 patient Wed, 21 May 2008 22:00:34 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=1970#comment-48465 I think there are also a fair share of distressed potential buyers out there. The price of energy impacts more or less every piece of goods or service. Either from a material, transportation or operational point of view or a mix of them. It's no longer only a question of it being tougher to qualify for a loan, the living expenses are already raising quickly and could very well skyrocket within the next couple of months. My guess is that more people than already will need whatever cash flow they have and are not inclined to take on more expenses/debt.<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('48465','patient',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('48465','patient','I think there are also a fair share of distressed potential buyers out there. The price of energy impacts more or less every piece of goods or service. Either from a material, transportation or operational point of view or a mix of them. It\'s no longer only a question of it being tougher to qualify for a loan, the living expenses are already raising quickly and could very well skyrocket within the next couple of months. My guess is that more people than already will need whatever cash flow they have and are not inclined to take on more expenses\/debt.',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> I think there are also a fair share of distressed potential buyers out there. The price of energy impacts more or less every piece of goods or service. Either from a material, transportation or operational point of view or a mix of them. It’s no longer only a question of it being tougher to qualify for a loan, the living expenses are already raising quickly and could very well skyrocket within the next couple of months. My guess is that more people than already will need whatever cash flow they have and are not inclined to take on more expenses/debt.
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]]> By: TJ_98370 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/05/21/revisiting-the-distressed-sellers-index/#comment-48464 TJ_98370 Wed, 21 May 2008 21:38:09 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=1970#comment-48464 Speaking of distressed owners: A coworker of mine had a house built in Sequim as an investment in 2004. It's been on the market ever since he had it built. He started with an asking price of $435K and he just sold it for $330K. He says he is glad to have gotten out from under it and that he is just going to break even (excluding his own time and effort). MLS 27120615.<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('48464','TJ_98370',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('48464','TJ_98370','Speaking of distressed owners: \r\nA coworker of mine had a house built in Sequim as an investment in 2004. It\'s been on the market ever since he had it built. He started with an asking price of $435K and he just sold it for $330K. He says he is glad to have gotten out from under it and that he is just going to break even (excluding his own time and effort). MLS 27120615.',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> Speaking of distressed owners:
A coworker of mine had a house built in Sequim as an investment in 2004. It’s been on the market ever since he had it built. He started with an asking price of $435K and he just sold it for $330K. He says he is glad to have gotten out from under it and that he is just going to break even (excluding his own time and effort). MLS 27120615.
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]]> By: vboring http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/05/21/revisiting-the-distressed-sellers-index/#comment-48459 vboring Wed, 21 May 2008 18:55:25 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=1970#comment-48459 who is looking forward to this summer? if people think they are distressed now.... also, there was an interesting post about how pricing forces can be incredibly local on calculated risk this morning: http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2008/05/house-price-mosaic.html foreclosures pull down neighborhood prices first (and presumably region-wide prices later). moral of the story: if you're looking for a deal, look near the foreclosures.<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('48459','vboring',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('48459','vboring','who is looking forward to this summer? if people think they are distressed now....\r\n\r\nalso, there was an interesting post about how pricing forces can be incredibly local on calculated risk this morning:\r\n\r\nhttp:\/\/calculatedrisk.blogspot.com\/2008\/05\/house-price-mosaic.html\r\n\r\nforeclosures pull down neighborhood prices first (and presumably region-wide prices later).\r\n\r\nmoral of the story: if you\'re looking for a deal, look near the foreclosures.',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> who is looking forward to this summer? if people think they are distressed now….

also, there was an interesting post about how pricing forces can be incredibly local on calculated risk this morning:

http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2008/05/house-price-mosaic.html

foreclosures pull down neighborhood prices first (and presumably region-wide prices later).

moral of the story: if you’re looking for a deal, look near the foreclosures.

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]]> By: TheHulk http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/05/21/revisiting-the-distressed-sellers-index/#comment-48455 TheHulk Wed, 21 May 2008 18:25:37 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=1970#comment-48455 Hey Tim, Is the distressed seller index by county? Also, I call dibs on the five stages of grief, since I mentioned them to RAL a couple of days ago :)<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('48455','TheHulk',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('48455','TheHulk','Hey Tim,\r\n\r\nIs the distressed seller index by county?\r\n\r\nAlso, I call dibs on the five stages of grief, since I mentioned them to RAL a couple of days ago :)',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> Hey Tim,

Is the distressed seller index by county?

Also, I call dibs on the five stages of grief, since I mentioned them to RAL a couple of days ago :)

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