Posted by: The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

132 responses to “Fundraising Drive Day 5: Looking Forward”

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  1. [troll]

    >rrrrgh!!! hv t gr wth RL!!! Tht s th mjr prblm wth th hgh ncm/rntr strtgy – y hv t crt frcd svngs strtgy qvlnt t mkng mrtgg pymnt. Mst ppl, whtvr thr gd ntntns, rn’t gng t sv ngh f thy hv t mk mnthly dcsn whthr t sv r ntHwvr (rtrnng t crtcsm) – th stds y ct lk t dt frm th pk f th grtst hsng bbbl n hstry – t wll b ntrstng t lk t th dt n 2010<>ls, f crs, nyn n ntrst-nly r ngtv-m mrtgg sn’t ctlly dng ny svng – thy r mrly srvcng th ntrst n hg lvrgd dbt<

    Ths s blg frqntd by ntllgnt rntrs. Lt’s nt nslt thr ntllgnc by ctng xmpls f dts wh bght wtht 20% dwn sng RMS nd ntrst nly mrtggs whn 30 yr fxd mrtggs wr nd r t hstrcl lws. C’mn dn’t thnk ny f ths svy rntrs hr jst fll ff trnp trck.
    Wht bttr dl cn y fnd thn 30 yr FXD pymnt fr yr ccmdtns? D th clcltn n yr crrnt rntl rt nd vrg ncrss, wht wll y b pyng n rnt n 30 yrs?< hrf="#" clss="rplyt" nclck="rplyt('48808','∓#91;trll∓#93;','101'); rtrn fls;">Rply – < hrf="#" clss="qt" nclck="qt('48808','∓#91;trll∓#93;','∓gt;rrrrgh!!! hv t gr wth RL!!! Tht s th mjr prblm wth th hgh ncm\/rntr strtgy - y hv t crt frcd svngs strtgy qvlnt t mkng mrtgg pymnt. Mst ppl, whtvr thr gd ntntns, rn&rsq;t gng t sv ngh f thy hv t mk mnthly dcsn whthr t sv r ntHwvr (rtrnng t crtcsm) - th stds y ct lk t dt frm th pk f th grtst hsng bbbl n hstry - t wll b ntrstng t lk t th dt n 2010<>ls, f crs, nyn n ntrst-nly r ngtv-m mrtgg sn&rsq;t ctlly dng ny svng - thy r mrly srvcng th ntrst n hg lvrgd dbt∓lt;\r\n\r\nThs s blg frqntd by ntllgnt rntrs. Lt\'s nt nslt thr ntllgnc by ctng xmpls f dts wh bght wtht 20% dwn sng RMS nd ntrst nly mrtggs whn 30 yr fxd mrtggs wr nd r t hstrcl lws. C\'mn dn\'t thnk ny f ths svy rntrs hr jst fll ff trnp trck.\r\nWht bttr dl cn y fnd thn 30 yr FXD pymnt fr yr ccmdtns? D th clcltn n yr crrnt rntl rt nd vrg ncrss, wht wll y b pyng n rnt n 30 yrs?','101'); rtrn fls;">Qt

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  2. Ray Pepper

    Redmond I think we will both agree that nothing is easy. However, I will tell you I currently own 27 properties in Washington, Oregon, and Nv. 1/3 are commercial. I manage them all myself, have 3 kids, and Broker a Real Estate company. With the advent of Craigslist, very structured leases that offer rent to own incentives, offering incentives to neighbors to keep an eye on things, and Companies like Evict a Rat its far easier to be a landlord.

    Like anything else it just takes education and effort. I spend less then 5 hours a month on my rentals. The tenants service all repair issues due to my leases and/or I compensate all tenants 15.00 an hour to repair problems. But, I cannot stress this enough……..Always buy in highly desirable neighborhoods close to jobs, universities, and shopping. All my rentals rent before the old tenant moves out. I CraigsList the ad, have all tenants place a For Rent Sign on top of the garage when they serve notice, and have the current tenant do the showings. Its all streamlined but the homeowner must be organized in detail with their leases and tenant obligations.

    It goes without saying that one should only Buy GEMS as well. I find people that have problems with rentals are people who bought in the wrong areas and have poor organizational skills. Drugs, damage, can happen but it just rarely happens to me. With High Damage deposits, a Strict NO Pet/ No Smoking Policy, I seemed to have avoid all those issues. I have never purchased Multi-family because the tenants are too mobile. I mostly seek commercial but buy Residential Gems when I see them.

    I have a vacancy coming up in Albany Oregon. The tenants were having a home built and its completed. They will be moving out June 11. You can see the ad I run on CraigsList Albany Oregon. 1200 a month. Rent to Own. I think it says Best In Albany. I don’t believe it is difficult. Like anything else, only if you make it so.

    Ray Pepper
    http://www.500Realty.net

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  3. Ben

    RentersAreLosers,

    I already conceded that I believe the statistics. I believe you, so no need for me to click the link.

    What I was pointing out was, there is no way to know how these people made their money. You believe that they made it through real estate. I think that is crazy – I think that you have to make it to be able to afford real estate.

    Neither of us has the proof to show that we are right. All that I ask is that you take notice of that and stop acting like your assumption is a proof.

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  4. Civil Servant

    I am late to the table but want to make a point that there may also be opportunity costs to buying a house. In late 2004/early 2005 I was sitting on a pile of money that could have served as a down payment. But I opted to leave town to go to grad school instead (scholarship money offset most of my tuition; I paid living expenses). I came back last summer with, yeah, a smaller pile of money but also with credentials and experience that helped me get a better paying and more secure job than I’d had before, with much greater potential for advancement. If I’d bought the house back then, part-time school and full-time job and the standard allotment of homeowner concerns probably would have fried me, even assuming I could have gotten the same financial package here to make that feasible. Also, for what I wanted to do, local programs just aren’t that good, so I’m not sure I would have been as competitive an applicant coming out of them, and I know I wouldn’t have had to work as hard or learned as much. Bottom line: if I’d bought a house when I could, I would not be in the good position I am now with respect to work, with returns that will compound for the rest of my career.

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  5. [troll]

    Cvl Srvnt,

    Cmpltly rrlvnt cmmnts.
    n ds nt chs btwn dctn r byng hs.
    dctn cm frst, lwys.< hrf="#" clss="rplyt" nclck="rplyt('48812','∓#91;trll∓#93;','105'); rtrn fls;">Rply – < hrf="#" clss="qt" nclck="qt('48812','∓#91;trll∓#93;','Cvl Srvnt,\r\n\r\nCmpltly rrlvnt cmmnts.\r\nn ds nt chs btwn dctn r byng hs.\r\ndctn cm frst, lwys.','105'); rtrn fls;">Qt

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  6. matthew

    RAL,

    interesting how you ignore any “relevant” data and only respond where you see fit. Typical antics of a troll.

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  7. Civil Servant

    Excuse me, RAL, but that’s a lousy thing to say — I don’t know who you think you are that you get to decide I have nothing to contribute. You’ve been rude to and dismissive of those whose opinions and choices you don’t agree with; here I’ve done something you seem to agree was the right thing and you treat me the same way. Where I’m from we have a word for people like that.

    (Tim, when is it enough already?)

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  8. Mikal

    Matthew, you respond the same way, troll.

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  9. Mikal

    There are some very intelligent people here, Deejayoh, Ray, David Losh to name a few, and some very bitter unhappy people here, Matthew, Civil Servant ,Economist come to mind. You aren’t going to go through life with people agreeing with you all the time.

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  10. [troll]

    Cvl Srvnt,

    Ths s th Sttl Bbbl blg whr th dvntgs, dsdvntgs, nd tmng t byng vs rntng s bng dscssd (nt shld g t schl r trvl th wrld nstd f byng hm)

    Jst tryng t kp thngs “n tpc”

    By th wy, d y lwys rn t Mm (Tm) whn smn pnts t smthng tht dsplss y? Ys, Tm cld bn m nd ths brd cld rvrt bck t th “Grp Hg” fshn, bt dsn’t dffrnt pnts f vw prvd fr dscssn?< hrf="#" clss="rplyt" nclck="rplyt('48820','∓#91;trll∓#93;','110'); rtrn fls;">Rply – < hrf="#" clss="qt" nclck="qt('48820','∓#91;trll∓#93;','Cvl Srvnt,\r\n\r\nThs s th Sttl Bbbl blg whr th dvntgs, dsdvntgs, nd tmng t byng vs rntng s bng dscssd (nt shld g t schl r trvl th wrld nstd f byng hm)\r\n\r\nJst tryng t kp thngs \&qt;n tpc\&qt;\r\n\r\nBy th wy, d y lwys rn t Mm (Tm) whn smn pnts t smthng tht dsplss y? Ys, Tm cld bn m nd ths brd cld rvrt bck t th \&qt;Grp Hg\&qt; fshn, bt dsn\'t dffrnt pnts f vw prvd fr dscssn?','110'); rtrn fls;">Qt

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  11. [troll]

    ntrstng hw y gnr ny “rlvnt” dt nd nly rspnd whr y s ft. Typcl ntcs f trll.
    ………………….

    Mtthw,
    m srry, dd mss sm rlvnt dt tht y pstd n ths thrd?
    lkd gn bt ddn’t fnd ny. Kndly pnt t t.< hrf="#" clss="rplyt" nclck="rplyt('48821','∓#91;trll∓#93;','111'); rtrn fls;">Rply – < hrf="#" clss="qt" nclck="qt('48821','∓#91;trll∓#93;','ntrstng hw y gnr ny &ldq;rlvnt&rdq; dt nd nly rspnd whr y s ft. Typcl ntcs f trll.\r\n......................\r\n\r\nMtthw,\r\n m srry, dd mss sm rlvnt dt tht y pstd n ths thrd?\r\n lkd gn bt ddn\'t fnd ny. Kndly pnt t t.','111'); rtrn fls;">Qt

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  12. Everett_Tom

    Rentersarelosers,

    I’m pretty sure what Matthew was saying is that I went, and I read you links. I found that they did not support what you were trying to say with them. You decided not to comment.

    I’d content after reading the two links that the first support the premise of this website (i.e. buy at the right time for you, not BUY NOW)

    The 2nd is a small study which in the opening clearly states that no conclusion about the differences between renters and buyers can be made due to the small sample size. It is aimed at allowing policy makers to improve their low income home lending programs. Most of the conclusions focuses on items such as keeping people from taking out HELOCs, and requiring more finical education for borrowers.

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  13. Matthew

    Ding, Ding, Ding… Everett_Tom is dead on. I have also seen you called out at least half a dozen other times and you conveniently cherry pick your which posts you respond to. People have already explained to you that they are renting while they wait out the popping of the bubble, and then intent to buy a home, but yet you keep on bringing up the “buyers are wealthier than renters” line. Get over it, find something new to bring to the table.

    TROLL.

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  14. [troll]

    mtthw:
    > Why wld y wnt t cs ths blg? s th trth hrtng t
    > mch?

    Ys, t hrts m s mch tht md mny whl lyng n my bck whl lvd n 3 hms s fr. t hrts m s bd, y hv n d.< hrf="#" clss="rplyt" nclck="rplyt('48892','∓#91;trll∓#93;','114'); rtrn fls;">Rply – < hrf="#" clss="qt" nclck="qt('48892','∓#91;trll∓#93;','mtthw:\r\n∓gt; Why wld y wnt t cs ths blg? s th trth hrtng t \r\n∓gt; mch?\r\n\r\nYs, t hrts m s mch tht md mny whl lyng n my bck whl lvd n 3 hms s fr. t hrts m s bd, y hv n d.','114'); rtrn fls;">Qt

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  15. [troll]

    vrtt_Tm – thnk y fr bng hnst. Nw shll rwrd y wth sm hnsty nstd f bllchclt lk sm wnnb-cnmsts spt ff…

    ls lvd n SCl fr bt 5 yrs. Th gy bght th twnhm frm thr md 120k ff m (Dcmbr, 2001). Whn sld t, t th tl nd f th pk, md 195k ff t (n Dcmbr 2004). My nghbrs wh lv thr r tllng m t jst sld gn rcntly bt 4-5 mnths g, wth bt 30-40k prft ths tm rnd. My hs n Sttl’s stsd sld wth 110k prft (n Dcmbr 2007 – whl chclt ws stll brkng ls ll vr – ncldng ths dpchclt blg). Th gy nxt t m sld wth 200k prft bt 10+ mnths rlr n Nv-Dc 2006, bt hd wtd lngr whn wntd t sll, wld nt hv gttn vn 110k. ls kpt t hgh n prps bcs r brnd nw CmWst hm wsn’t fnshd yt, nd ddn’t wnt s t dbl-mv. n rtrspct, shld hv dbl-mvd nd md mr mny, bt ddn’t knw wht ws cmng n 2007, s styd…

    S spps y cld cll m “lcky” (r nt, dpndng n th vntg pnt), tht “lckd t” whn dd – bt cn tll y tht crss ll sls nd prchss f hms, grd ws nt mtvtng fctr fr m, nd ls bght hms whch knw cld r-sll vry sly f wntd t – .g. chs grt lctn, nt t n th bndcks, bt n rs rltvly cls (25-30 mn cmmt) t mjr mplymnt rs/cts (.g. bllv, sttl, rntn).

    n ths hm w’ll prbbly sty t lst 5 yrs – whch s mr thn plnty f tm fr th knd f -hls tht nhbt ths blg tht thnk thy knw thr ss frm hl n th grnd whn t cms t R nvstng, t snp t f thr ‘lrnd hlplssns’ whn t cms t th cndtns f th R mrkt, nd by thn, ths blg wll g by th wy f f*kdcmpny.cm….

    nd wll hv md 10% yr n yr n vrg n th hs tht crrntly lv, whch s vr hlf pd ff.

    Th _mtvtng_ fctr whn prchsng/sllng, gn wsn’t grd – bt smthng tht tchd, mvd nd nsprd m s fr s qlty hm/nghbrhd/lctn gs, nd whn y s tht slctn crtr, t wll bt ll th shrt-trm mrkt nlyss nd wnnb cnmsts (wth ngnrng bckgrnds)…

    gn – sm ppl wn’t lstn t wht jst sd hr nd wll cntn t nsst dmsdy s pn s, nd y r fr t chs whm y lstn t fr R dvc….

    nd f y vr rch tht hnrd nd nglghtnd lvl f ncrtnty s t wht r whr t by nd whthr t wll py ff fr y 2-5 yrs dwn th rd, knw t lst 2-3 rltrs wth vr 30+ yrs f xprnc n th Sttl Mtr r tht wll hndpck prprty fr y whch wll grnt y wll wn n th nd (prvdd y rn’t mtvtd by grd), whthr y chs t sll r rtn yr hm…. Y wll njy lvng n t s wll s njy mkng sm mny ff t whn y d chs t sll t.< hrf="#" clss="rplyt" nclck="rplyt('48894','∓#91;trll∓#93;','115'); rtrn fls;">Rply – < hrf="#" clss="qt" nclck="qt('48894','∓#91;trll∓#93;','vrtt_Tm - thnk y fr bng hnst. Nw shll rwrd y wth sm hnsty nstd f bllchclt lk sm wnnb-cnmsts spt ff...\r\n\r\n ls lvd n SCl fr bt 5 yrs. Th gy bght th twnhm frm thr md 120k ff m (Dcmbr, 2001). Whn sld t, t th tl nd f th pk, md 195k ff t (n Dcmbr 2004). My nghbrs wh lv thr r tllng m t jst sld gn rcntly bt 4-5 mnths g, wth bt 30-40k prft ths tm rnd. My hs n Sttl\'s stsd sld wth 110k prft (n Dcmbr 2007 - whl chclt ws stll brkng ls ll vr - ncldng ths dpchclt blg). Th gy nxt t m sld wth 200k prft bt 10+ mnths rlr n Nv-Dc 2006, bt hd wtd lngr whn wntd t sll, wld nt hv gttn vn 110k. ls kpt t hgh n prps bcs r brnd nw CmWst hm wsn\'t fnshd yt, nd ddn\'t wnt s t dbl-mv. n rtrspct, shld hv dbl-mvd nd md mr mny, bt ddn\'t knw wht ws cmng n 2007, s styd...\r\n\r\nS spps y cld cll m \&qt;lcky\&qt; (r nt, dpndng n th vntg pnt), tht \&qt;lckd t\&qt; whn dd - bt cn tll y tht crss ll sls nd prchss f hms, grd ws nt mtvtng fctr fr m, nd ls bght hms whch knw cld r-sll vry sly f wntd t - .g. chs grt lctn, nt t n th bndcks, bt n rs rltvly cls (25-30 mn cmmt) t mjr mplymnt rs\/cts (.g. bllv, sttl, rntn).\r\n\r\nn ths hm w\'ll prbbly sty t lst 5 yrs - whch s mr thn plnty f tm fr th knd f -hls tht nhbt ths blg tht thnk thy knw thr ss frm hl n th grnd whn t cms t R nvstng, t snp t f thr \'lrnd hlplssns\' whn t cms t th cndtns f th R mrkt, nd by thn, ths blg wll g by th wy f f*kdcmpny.cm.... \r\n\r\nnd wll hv md 10% yr n yr n vrg n th hs tht crrntly lv, whch s vr hlf pd ff.\r\n\r\nTh _mtvtng_ fctr whn prchsng\/sllng, gn wsn\'t grd - bt smthng tht tchd, mvd nd nsprd m s fr s qlty hm\/nghbrhd\/lctn gs, nd whn y s tht slctn crtr, t wll bt ll th shrt-trm mrkt nlyss nd wnnb cnmsts (wth ngnrng bckgrnds)...\r\n\r\ngn - sm ppl wn\'t lstn t wht jst sd hr nd wll cntn t nsst dmsdy s pn s, nd y r fr t chs whm y lstn t fr R dvc.... \r\n\r\nnd f y vr rch tht hnrd nd nglghtnd lvl f ncrtnty s t wht r whr t by nd whthr t wll py ff fr y 2-5 yrs dwn th rd, knw t lst 2-3 rltrs wth vr 30+ yrs f xprnc n th Sttl Mtr r tht wll hndpck prprty fr y whch wll grnt y wll wn n th nd (prvdd y rn\'t mtvtd by grd), whthr y chs t sll r rtn yr hm.... Y wll njy lvng n t s wll s njy mkng sm mny ff t whn y d chs t sll t.','115'); rtrn fls;">Qt

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  16. Rachel

    Hey, we’d like to donate but don’t want to make a Google account. Can we just send a check to the Thatch Mound PO Box?

    You should respond soon – cuz we’re thinking of donating MILLIONS*!!

    *by MILLIONS, I mean…about $25.00

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  17. [troll]

    Ry Pppr – ppl hr dn’t wnt gms. Thy wnt fr rd. r plc t vnt whn thy rn’t dng nythng sfl.

    Ths wh wn nd cm hr, cm fr th shr ntrtnmnt fctr. Pssbly thnkng f sllng – bt nt ntl thy s cmpltly ngtv blg lk ths d dwn nd xtngsh, t whch pnt t mght b t lt t sll :), bcs whl cycl mght pss thm by…

    Ths wh dn’t wn, hv wt drms f hm wnrshp, nd r 1) wtng t gt rch frst, t thn 2) by th hm f thr drms, t 3) rdcls prc r fr f chrg, fr “pnns n th dllr” s thy clm y cld n ths lt nght nfmrcls tht lt f ths nght-wls wtch btwn srfng thr prn nd ths blg (ths ppls prtclrly t th ngnrng typs wh lwys wnt mthmtcl mdl f ndrstndng hmn bhvrl pttrns).

    Bt t’s nc f y t try t tlk sm sns nt ppl… bld ttmpt.< hrf="#" clss="rplyt" nclck="rplyt('48901','∓#91;trll∓#93;','118'); rtrn fls;">Rply – < hrf="#" clss="qt" nclck="qt('48901','∓#91;trll∓#93;','Ry Pppr - ppl hr dn\'t wnt gms. Thy wnt fr rd. r plc t vnt whn thy rn\'t dng nythng sfl.\r\n\r\nThs wh wn nd cm hr, cm fr th shr ntrtnmnt fctr. Pssbly thnkng f sllng - bt nt ntl thy s cmpltly ngtv blg lk ths d dwn nd xtngsh, t whch pnt t mght b t lt t sll :), bcs whl cycl mght pss thm by...\r\n\r\nThs wh dn\'t wn, hv wt drms f hm wnrshp, nd r 1) wtng t gt rch frst, t thn 2) by th hm f thr drms, t 3) rdcls prc r fr f chrg, fr \&qt;pnns n th dllr\&qt; s thy clm y cld n ths lt nght nfmrcls tht lt f ths nght-wls wtch btwn srfng thr prn nd ths blg (ths ppls prtclrly t th ngnrng typs wh lwys wnt mthmtcl mdl f ndrstndng hmn bhvrl pttrns).\r\n\r\nBt t\'s nc f y t try t tlk sm sns nt ppl... bld ttmpt.','118'); rtrn fls;">Qt

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  18. Everett_Tom

    NostragollyUs,

    Thanks for sharing your story as well, I can see why you’d feel that housing is such a safe bet after that kind of buying/selling history.

    Overall, I’d call your profits lucky, but let’s not focus on that. As it’d be just as impossible for me to prove myself right as it would be you, and then we’d just be back to name calling.. which gets old quick.

    What I’d be more interested to hear about is why you don’t just invest in real estate and retire (or setup to retire in the next 5 – 15 years). As you said:

    And if you ever reach that honored and englightened level of uncertainty as to what or where to buy and whether it will pay off for you 2-5 years down the road, I know at least 2-3 realtors with over 30+ years of experience in the Seattle Metro area that will handpick a property for you which will guarantee you will win in the end (provided you aren’t motivated by greed), whether you choose to sell or retain your home…. You will enjoy living in it as well as enjoy making some money off it when you do choose to sell it.

    combine that with your 10% comments above that.. why not leverage yourself, get as many home as possibly and make a killing 2 -5 years down the road? Not because you’d be “greedy”, but to enable you to retire.. and not have to deal with this blog, or work, or anything else besides whatever it is that you do for fun?

    If I had that level of certainty, it’d be what exactly what I’d be doing. (esp. now with the low interest rates).

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  19. Matthew

    Nostradumbass,

    Remind us again why you post on this blog? If anyone is an “ahole” on here its you. Housing downturn got you a little perturbed?

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  20. Matthew

    BTW, I’m calling bullchocolate on any of your supposed housing sales unless you post some transaction info. Talk is cheap.

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  21. Alan

    It is easy to confuse success with luck. Had I streched and purchased a nicer house in a different location in NC, I might have made $150k profit instead of $10k. Then I might have taken that to TX and bought in a nicer neighborhood (because I could afford it) and earned another $150k-200k. Then I would have moved here and thought all you bubblers were crazy and that RE was a great investment and look how smart I am and aren’t you all just dumb whiners. And I would have bought a $600k house with my $350k of equity. And today I would be absolutely flumaxed about why my house value had dropped 15% from last summer and maybe it is the fault of the media and bloggers and if only these potential buyers would listen to me and understand how great RE is as an investment then everything would just be peachy and we could all become wealthy (except for those loser renters).

    But that didn’t happen. Why didn’t I buy houses that appreciated more?
    – Inexperience – I bought my first house just a year out of undergrad.
    – I was looking for “a deal” which means I bought more house for less money in less desirable neighborhood.

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  22. deejayoh

    Matthew and Tom –
    According to Case Shiller, home prices went up 75% in Seattle, 72% in San Diego, and 110% in LA. between 2001 and 2007. There’s no reason to call BS on NDU’s story or to position it as “lucky”. If anything, it sounds like a pretty mediocre return in light of how crazy the market was. I rode the market up as well, and I’m not complaining.

    Now, taking those returns and projecting them forward – that’s a whole ‘nother topic. I don’t expect past performance to be any predictor of the future. Others do….

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  23. deejayoh

    Alan – you owned in two of the worst performing markets in the country. While I wouldn’t call NDU “lucky” I’d certainly say you were unlucky!

    And you need a gravatar!

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  24. Alan

    And yet even in those poorly performing areas there were properties where I could have gotten those returns. My main point is that had I been lucky in choosing properties with limited skill and experience, I doubt I would have chalked it up to luck.

    Real estate is not the biggest lucky opportunity I’ve missed. I joined a startup after undergrad that became walking dead. A guy I went to school with joined a different startup and was worth $250M at one point. He is retired on his own farm and raises horses now. Why someone would choose to stop working with computers just because he is rich is beyond me, but I guess some people just prefer horse maintenance. He joined that startup because it was a natural fit with his senior project — a project I started working on him with but then left early to do an AI related project.

    But that is life, right? It wouldn’t be very interesting if everything was orderly and perfect.

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  25. Everett_Tom

    Fair enough deejayoh,

    But I’d still say that buying something (like.. say.. oh.. a House), holding it for a few years, and walking away with huge profits is lucky.. less lucky then the lotto, but stick lucky. Especially when those profits depend on price appreciation.

    especially since if I wanted to do the same now, in the same markets I’d probably end up take it in the shorts… :)

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  26. Matthew

    BSC puts would have cashed you out at a huge gain, but until someone posts trade logs, I don’t believe that they were positioned short.

    Talk is cheap on here. Particularly with someone with so much venom he obviously has an axe to grind. If he really was up a few hundred thousand and had his Seattle house half paid off, why is the guy so pissed off and posting on this blog so much? Either the guy is a pathetic loser with no life but to come on a bubble blog and post anti bubble rhetoric, or he is really underwater right now and pissed off at the realization that he is stuck living in a crappy craftsman for the next decade in order to break even. Take your pick on that one. The guy is like someone that goes on a Seahawks forum and spends all day talking about how much he hates the Seahawks just to piss people off.

    Something doesn’t add up here and I’m calling BS.

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  27. deejayoh

    Alan – I have plenty of those stories. Like the time I had a chance to join a startup early on that became a um, major fiber provider.. Next time I see the founder, he’s on the cover of Forbes. Hey, I know that guy! Now, at the end of the day – it turns out he was pretty much a criminal – but he never went to jail for it, and AFAIK he’s still fabulously wealthy.

    And I get the point about lucky. Most people, faced with a choice between attributing their success to luck or intelligence, decide they’re pretty darn smart.

    And the reason NDU posts here is probably exactly what you say Matthew. Typical approach is “dont feed the _____”

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  28. Alan

    I’ve found that most people with any sort of experience have a similar story to tell.

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  29. Alan

    My wife knows someone who got a job out of high school (never went to college) helping set up cell phone towers. He learned how the business worked and set up his own shop. He is retired now in his early thirties.

    He was lucky to be in the right place at the right time. He also took a lot of initiative. I am sure he also worked his ass off.

    There are plenty of high school graduates who work their asses off their whole lives and never make it into the middle class.

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  30. Rachel

    Wow – I know absolutely nothing about real estate but still love reading some of these blogs. If for no other reason than to chuckle inwardly at the ridiculously heated debate that is so far from the topic of this post it’s amazing!

    *Please don’t hate on me – I’m just making an observation*

    The Tim – We’ll be sending a check. My husband won’t use Paypal as a matter of principle. :)

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