Seattle Bubble

• Seattle Bubble Fundraising Drive: Day 3
• Seattle Bubble Fundraising Drive
• NWMLS King County Area Map
• Fundraising Drive: Thank You!
• What do you want from Seattle Bubble?

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132 responses so far ↓

• 1 Jim // May 23, 2008 at 8:25 am

  I think that Seattle Bubble is a fine name. One thing that I like about the name.. thinking into the future.. would be that it is a reminder of what happened in the past and how people dealt with it. Some people waited and bought after the peak had subsided and some people plowed in blindly at the peak.

  An interesting topic that you might consider including would be following specific houses through the runnup and decline to come.

  I had listened to the Big Pool of Money you posted.. I believe it was a This American Life special.. and thought about how the CDO managers view the spreadsheet and see people struggling through with their mortgages. If you could capture some of this struggle that would be great.

  I would expect anything personal with people but maybe house prices in different areas. I use Redfin and you can see the different sale prices in the past and then the asking price drops that are going on right now. It would be great to carry this out with posts about specific properties as the drop continues.

• 2 Jim // May 23, 2008 at 8:26 am

  I would not expect anything personal I should have said.

• 3 Adam // May 23, 2008 at 10:15 am

  SeattleBoomBust.com? SeattleBoomOrBust.com?

• 4 [troll] // May 23, 2008 at 10:55 am

  “Snc thn, fl lk th st hs grwn nt mch mr thn tht, nd bcm mr f gnrl nws nd nlyss src fr th lcl rsdntl rl stt mrkt.”

  Th nly thng ths st hs grwn nt s plc fr th 40 r s cnstnt whny -hls tht rnfrc yr dlsns f grndr t wst thr tm nd prv yr rdcls pnt f vw bt mrkt “bbbl”, r s ’d lk t cll t, dcrsd dmnd d t 1) crprt grd/rrspnsblty nd 2) ppl (hmwnrs) wh bt ff mr thn thy cn chw.

  Frtntly, rd smwhr tht Sttl s n f th mst ltrt cts n th wrld, whch mns (mst) ppl hr cn d smpl lgbr, nd ths y dn’t s n yr slss lttl blg whnng r cmplnng bt th R mrkt - thy thr by r dn’t - dpndng n th crrnt cntxt.

  Wht y r dng - Tmstr - s slf-prmtn. Y knw ppl r bnd t lk p wht y d nc thy stmbl pn yr whn-blg, nd ths lkng fr “nswrs” (tht thy lrdy knw, mght dd) wll thnk - “G-wht n hnst gy - h _cmplns_ lk th rst f s n hs blg - h mst b lk s! Lt’s gv hm sm bsnss/fnds”

  Yr ntr tn/md f ths wbst strtd ff n th wrng ft - .g. pssmstc. N n lks pssmst, vn whn thy r rght. nd fr whl thr, y wr rght. Bt y r ls stpd. Why? Bcs y cn nt nd th “SttlBbbl” nc th mrkt pcks p. nd thn, jst lk bnch f thr msrbl, ft f**ks lk yrslf (.g. f*kdcmpny.cm s nthr xmpl f st tht ws brfly pplr), y wll g dwn n hstry s smn wh ws rght… fr nc n hs lf… r lk brkn nlg clck - whch s rght twc dy….

  Y dg yr wn grv by cllng yr wn wbst “SttlBbbl”. Nw y wnt t RSN yr wy t f t. nd gtt tll y - t n’t wrkng n m. nd m hpng t wn’t wrk n mst ppl.

  G’dy Brc!

• 5 TJ_98370 // May 23, 2008 at 11:12 am

  I think Nostra would vote to change the title of the website.

• 6 [troll] // May 23, 2008 at 11:14 am

  nd jst t shw y ’m gd sprt - f wr y, wld llw th SttlBbbl.cm rgstrtn t xpr, nd whn y d brng p th nw wbst, mk sr y chs dffrnt nm - n mr ntrl, r nt ndctv f nythng rgrdng th cyclcl ntr f th mrkt.

  ’m ls wllng t bt tht f y ctlly chng th nm t smthng mr ntrl ∓ mnnglss wth rgrds t th ntr f th mrkt r ppl’s md bt th mrkt, y wll mst lkly ls ntrst n mntnng th wbst, bcs y cn’t b rght bt wht y r syng nymr….

  nd frm my lng xprnc f dlng wth ppl - ppl (.g. y) wld rthr b rght thn b hppy r prdctv… Ppl r prprd t clng t thr pnt f vw lk thr lf dpndnd n t - nd t dsn’t. Th cst f dng jst tht - prpttng yr wn pnt f vw, s prmnnt dsstsfctn wth yrslf/thrs.

  Gd lck!

• 7 Everett_Tom // May 23, 2008 at 11:17 am

  Thanks Nostra"golly"Us ,

  I realized that without this site I wouldn’t get to giggle at your comments. In light of that I’ve donated another $10, so you’ve got somewhere to post your anger. Think of it as being in your name :).

• 8 patient // May 23, 2008 at 11:18 am

  The TIm, it’s good to think proactively but also be careful not to meddle with success to early. This site and it’s name obviously stirs up emotions (see Nostra’s comment) and are now a known name among the re-industry. I say keep it. If you need later on you can just expand the bubble meaning from a price bubble to a sphere that encirles Seattle and what goes on here. It’s a good name.

• 9 [troll] // May 23, 2008 at 11:22 am

  Tm - s tht $10 dllrs vrtt_Tm gv y t rgstr nw dmn nm t < hrf="http://ggl.cm/" rl="nfllw">http://ggl.cm/.

  Thnks Tm.

• 10 [troll] // May 23, 2008 at 11:23 am

  Tm - ’d s tht $10 frm Tm t rgstr th nw dmn nm…

  Thnks Tm.

• 11 Everett_Tom // May 23, 2008 at 11:24 am

  Your Welcome Nostra"golly"Us.

• 12 [troll] // May 23, 2008 at 11:24 am

  ptnt - h cn kp t t hs wn prl.

• 13 b // May 23, 2008 at 11:25 am

  Still haven’t sold your house, Nostra"golly"Us?

• 14 [troll] // May 23, 2008 at 11:28 am

  b - gd n mn :). My hs s mr thn hlf pd ff. ’m n my 30’s. nd ths s r 3rd hm - ’v md mny n ll prr sls - ncldng whn th mrkt hr n Sttl ws &qt;chclty&qt;. Bt thnks fr skng.

• 15 b // May 23, 2008 at 11:30 am

  Why do you read this blog? And whats with the angry rants? You either are lying about your house, need to get laid, or both.

• 16 Ray Pepper // May 23, 2008 at 11:34 am

  Good Lord! Nostra"golly"Us Ouch! Do you like the name 500 Realty? I hope so!

• 17 deejayoh // May 23, 2008 at 12:02 pm

  And from my long experience of dealing with people - people (e.g. you) would rather be right than be happy or productive…

  Ironic, considering the source.

• 18 [troll] // May 23, 2008 at 12:04 pm

  Ry - ny nm tht dsn’t mply prtclr pnt f vw s gd ngh fr wbst lk wht Tm rgnlly wntd t strt.

  Prblm wth Tm s, by cllng hs wbst “SttlBbbl” - h sht hmslf n th ft. Hs ntntns mght b ‘gd’ (bsds slf-srvng) - bt s w ll knw, th rd t hll s pvd wth sch gd ntntns.

  nd n hs gd ntntn t nfrm by prpttng sltry pnt f vw, h pntd hmslf nt crnr… nd nw h wnts t bck t f t wtht mkng mss.

  Nt s sy t d tht, hh, Tm? Y’r gng t trn nt rglr fll-tm slck-tlkng pltcn nw btwn tdy nd th tm y ctlly rgstr tht nw dmn.

  mght dd, try t cncl yr dntty n th nw wbst - r myb sbmt crt-rdrd nm chng, s ppl cn’t rlt t y s th “Bbbl” gy nc th mrkt rcvrs… (jst kddng bt ths lst prpsl - bt nc SRRY WS WRNG BT TH BBBL, whn th tm cms, wld b nc… hll, mght vn dnt twrd th nw wbst f y d tht).

• 19 [troll] // May 23, 2008 at 12:10 pm

  Djyh - rght.. ttck th mssngr. ’v mntnd ppl shld nt cnsdr “th mrkt” r ths dtc blg s gg fr whthr t by hm. Tmng th mrkt s n dtc prpstn. nd lt’s spps y r t tm t, thn t mght d y gd t by smthng whn ll hll brks ls, s t dd yr nd hlf g, r sn thrftr, rthr thn wt ntl 2009 whn Hllry’s gng t b n ffc….

  gn - y dn’t hv t blv n nc f wht sy - y cn “fllw yr wn nstncts” (r ths blg’s dstrctv dvc)

• 20 Tsuru // May 23, 2008 at 12:13 pm

  I’ll donate $10 for a webcam for Nostra"golly"Us because I would get a good laugh out of watching his face turn red and seeing the spittle fly as he angrily mashes out his diatribes from his Windermere cubicle.

• 21 [troll] // May 23, 2008 at 12:41 pm

  Tsr - y cn jst swng by my ffc, ’ll d t fr y fr fr.

• 22 The Tim // May 23, 2008 at 12:46 pm

  Wow, who pissed in NDU’s coffee today? I do appreciate the comic relief though.

• 23 Tsuru // May 23, 2008 at 12:53 pm

  Sure thing, Nostra"golly"Us - just post where your office is at.

• 24 Chris // May 23, 2008 at 12:58 pm

  Nostra,

  Given that I’ve stuffed Tim into a locker, I can assure you he is not fat.

• 25 [troll] // May 23, 2008 at 1:02 pm

  k Chrs - myb ws vrrctng lttl bt - s ’m srry fr lblng hm s ft.

  thr wy - thnk h gts m, nspt f m bng th “lst cmc stndng” hr…

  nd d thnk Tm wll cm rnd. ’ll dnt thn.

• 26 Fripp // May 23, 2008 at 1:06 pm

  If house prices go down and then recover in the future how was the Tim wrong about there being a bubble? I don’t think he’s ever said house prices will never appreciate again.

  Count me in for $25 in Nostra"golly"Us’s name as well.

• 27 [troll] // May 23, 2008 at 1:07 pm

  Tm - dn’t knw wh pssd n my cff, Mr lctrcl-ngnr-frm--&qt;chclty&qt;-nvrsty-trnd-Rl-stt-xprt…..

  Bt cn dfntly ttst t wh pssd n hs wn cff vr th lst 2 yrs.

  t’s fn bng rght, sn’t t? xcpt whn y’r nt.

• 28 The Tim // May 23, 2008 at 1:14 pm

  Wow, it really tears me up inside when an anonymous stranger on the internet starts calling me names. Boo-hoo, woe is me.

  Heh.

  I think you’re trying to be antagonistic, but I just can’t help but laugh at pretty much everything you post. You’re a parody of yourself, dude.

• 29 deejayoh // May 23, 2008 at 1:15 pm

  attack the messenger

  Like this?

  “place for the 40 or so constant whiny a-holes”

  “a bunch of other miserable, fat f**ks like yourself ”

  “you are also stupid”

• 30 [troll] // May 23, 2008 at 1:17 pm

  Frpp - h’s nvr sd thy wn’t vr pprct gn, bt h’s ls nvr pt wht h hs bn clmng fr th lst 2 yrs n prspctv - whch s tht prcs wll nvtbly rbnd gn, nd tht mst ppl lkng t by hm wld’v bn BST FF byng t whl h ws tllng thm NT T BY, t prcs tht hv ht ll tm lws!

  gn - y dn’t hv t blv m. Y cn blv th slf-bsrbd “Mr. lctrcl-ngnr-trnd-R-xprt Tm” wth whl lt f fr tm n hs hnds!

• 31 [troll] // May 23, 2008 at 1:18 pm

  djy - yh… tht’s my shrtcmng. Bng clrfl.. h wll. Srry f tht ffnds yr snsblts.

• 32 [troll] // May 23, 2008 at 1:20 pm

  “ thnk y’r tryng t b ntgnstc, bt jst cn’t hlp bt lgh t prtty mch vrythng y pst. Y’r prdy f yrslf, dd.”

  Tht’s vry tllng f y. Bt t n’t m wh’s bckpddlng n hs wn pt prjct - SttlBbbl.cm.

• 33 [troll] // May 23, 2008 at 1:27 pm

  “Why d y rd ths blg?”

  b - bcs t mss m t s th Pvlvn rflxs n ppl.

• 34 Fripp // May 23, 2008 at 1:29 pm

  Just out of curiosity, what is your educational background Nostra"golly"Us?

• 35 [troll] // May 23, 2008 at 1:30 pm

  Th Tm - y shld stck t wht y d bst - nd tht’s dfntly nt R mrkt nlyss, r hmn nlyss r ny knd f nlyss tht hs t d wth nythng tht y cn fnd n Mr Ggl tht y r tryng t mp nt th wrld wth yr lmtd xprnc, nd mght dd, lmtd ntllct t.

  Try lctrcl ngnrng… ths sn’t wrth yr tm.

  Jst frndly dvc.

• 36 [troll] // May 23, 2008 at 1:34 pm

  Frpp - cmptr scnc.

• 37 Tsuru // May 23, 2008 at 1:37 pm

  Nostra"golly"Us // May 23, 2008 at 1:34 pm

  Fripp - computer science.

  a.k.a. DeVry

• 38 [troll] // May 23, 2008 at 1:38 pm

  Frpp - nd nlk Tm, ’v wn hm nw, nd hv wnd svrl hms n th pst… nd cntn t nvst (s wll s my prnts, whm ls hv sccssfll rl stt bsnss) n rl stt, s thr’s nthng bttr/sfr t nvst n nywy, f y’r n t fr th lng rn. f nt, thn stck t smthng ls - bcs ths sn’t gt-rch-qck typ f schm thr.

  My prblm wth Tm s h s cllss nd s gvng dvc bsd n hs nttn, gt flngs, FD, tc. H nds t d vryn fvr nd cs ths blg sp.

• 39 [troll] // May 23, 2008 at 1:38 pm

  Tsr - y’r rght. DVry t s.

• 40 EconE // May 23, 2008 at 1:44 pm

  “(as well as my parents, whom also have a successfull real estate business) ”

  so the truth comes out. Looks like your fat ass parents will have to deal with their ramen diet.

  toodles loser!

• 41 b // May 23, 2008 at 1:45 pm

  Nostra"golly"Us -

  Can you point us to some hard metrics that prove Tim’s thesis about the seattle market is incorrect? All of the numbers I have seen bear out that we have a bubble and it is correcting. What set of statistics are you drawing your wisdom from? Or is it just from your “intuition”. Earlier you said you were in your 30’s, so its no wonder you believe that real estate is the best and safest investment ever. People older than you or those who have lived in areas outside of Seattle might beg to differ.

• 42 [troll] // May 23, 2008 at 1:50 pm

  Tm - hr’s chllng - f y cs ths blg/dmn, ’ll snd y mny rdr fr $100. Tht’s prbbly mr thn ny n hs gvn y ndvdlly (b hnst nw).

  Try m f y thnk ’m bll&qt;chclt&qt;tng y.

• 43 [troll] // May 23, 2008 at 1:59 pm

  b - f hv t “dct y” n wht’s my “thss” (whch dn’t hv) bsd n, t’ll tk fr mr thn pst, nd w’d hv t gt nt stff lk psychlgy, clsscl cndtnng (.g. “lrnd hlplssns”), tc. t gs “lttl bt” bynd mrkt nlyss - nd t nvlvs pttng thngs nt prspctv, rthr thn clngng t sngl pnt f vw fr vr 2 yrs jst bcs y wnt t b rght bt smthng, r tryng t gt ntrty by brngng p sts lk ths…

  ’m nt tryng t ptrnz y - bt mst f wht y s Tm d s n xmpl f wht nphyt, r wnnb whs cncrn sn’t fr thr ppl bt fr hmslf.

• 44 deejayoh // May 23, 2008 at 2:08 pm

  Here’s a blast from the past:

  Is Seattle Bubble Proof? November 2, 2006

  Best I can tell so far, the answer to that question is a resounding YES, Seattle IS bubble proof, at least in the $300,000 and under market.

  Tim’s post that day was about decreasing affordability.

  Interesting juxtaposition

• 45 b // May 23, 2008 at 2:12 pm

  Nostra"golly"Us -

  That was a lot of words to not answer my question. I am not asking for you to delve into psychology, I am asking you what data you are using to interpret that 1) Real estate is the safest and best investment you can make in the long term and 2) There is no bubble in Seattle’s market.

  I am also a computer scientist (although I hope you were kidding about DeVry, if not it might explain some things). I would assume you have at least gathered and looked at some relevant statistics and metrics in order to derive your conclusions. If not then all of those years of math theory really went to waste on you, didn’t they?

• 46 cheapseats // May 23, 2008 at 2:15 pm

  I think Nostra"golly"Us is an alter ego for The Tim, I believe he single handedly drove donations up today

• 47 Ray Pepper // May 23, 2008 at 2:23 pm

  Wow, I’m happy I took the weekend off and decided to stay home.

  I think you all need:

  A “little quiet time” including—

  a 5.00 Lil Caesar Pizza–Cheese

  a classic movie like Napoleon Dynamite

  and of course a 500 Realty T- shirt.

  When my days are blue it always works for me!

• 48 EconE // May 23, 2008 at 2:25 pm

  Nostradominatrix said…

  “Tim - here’s a challenge - if you cease this blog/domain, I’ll send you a money order for $100. That’s probably more than any one has given you individually (be honest now).”

  Nostra…

  How about you and I both give matching donations to Tim?

  Can you handle that?

  and as you said…

  Try me if you think I’m bull"chocolate"ting you.

• 49 [troll] // May 23, 2008 at 2:30 pm

  b - dn’t thnk y r lstnng t wht sd - thrfr y cntn pn th sm pth s bfr, nsstng n mtrcs nd sttstcs s n ndctr f prdctng th ftr.

  Fr s lng s y kp dng tht, y’r nt gng t b ny bttr ff thn Tm hr nd hs shny lttl pt blg, t thr prvng r dsprvng bth f yr pnts.

  Sttstcs/mtrcs r lk lttl wht ls whn sd t prdct nythng f vl. Hmn bhvr s mch mr rlbl pttrn tht n cn bnk n nd hs bn bnkd n by ths wh knw wht t tk t gt thr, nd r nw njyng th frts f ths ffrts thy md lng tm g, whn thy lstnd t smn thr thn th lks f Tm.

  Mst cmptr scntsts, lctrcl ngnrs, nd ppl wh rn’t xpsd t thr “rglr” (.g. nn-tch) ppl n dly bss r dvd f ths ntns m tryng t tll y hr, tht nlss y STP ND LSTN, r gng t cntn t try t mp nt sttstcl/mthmtcl mdls.

  Frtntly, ctlly _lstn_ t thr ppl wh rn’t Ggl-ddcts r SttlBbbl.rg ddcts.

  b - rthr thn fncng wth mthmtcl mdls r sttstcs tht prv f n vl t thr n f y - SK m _spcfc_ qstn tht y r cnfrntd wth, nd ’ll nswr t t th bst f my knwldg.

  N, my dgr s frm CF.

• 50 [troll] // May 23, 2008 at 2:33 pm

  cn - wll mtch yr dntn nlly f yr dntn s sd t cs ths blg. nd t dsn’t xcd $100.

• 51 [troll] // May 23, 2008 at 2:34 pm

  chpsts - y blv tht, dn’t y?

• 52 Ray Pepper // May 23, 2008 at 2:42 pm

  For those interested………..I graduated BCC…………………………………With honors!

• 53 b // May 23, 2008 at 2:46 pm

  Nostra"golly"Us -

  So your investment acumen is based on intuition, gut feelings, FUD, etc. Its good to know you are at least admitting to being a hypocrite.

  Long term investing that is based on such stupidity works great if you happen to have some dumb luck. Like a grandma investing in Apple because she thought it was the orchards out in eastern Washington. Buying real estate over the last 15 years has provided you with 3 chances to have dumb luck, so its no surprise you think its somehow due to your investing brilliance. If you had lived in SoCal during that time you’d have been bankrupt long ago. People who make real money use statistics and metrics to make decisions on how markets are valued and if they should buy or not. They don’t print P/E just for the "lick" of it.

  Human behavior should tell you flat out there is a bubble and prices were fueled by speculative mania. You only need to turn on HGTV over the last 4 years to realize that. The fact that you are blind to both statistics and your own “human behavior” analysis is pretty obvious. If you don’t like SeattleBubble there are plenty of other places to read up on this same exact stuff, I suggest bloomberg.com, economist.com and ftalphaville.ft.com for starters. Pay careful attention to news about CDOs, its much more important that a home being located in Ballard or having great granite countertops in understanding the Seattle market.

• 54 EconE // May 23, 2008 at 2:47 pm

  Anything over $100 too rich for your blood Nostra?

  C’mon…how hard would it be to match a donation from a poor bitter renter such as myself?

• 55 Ray Pepper // May 23, 2008 at 2:49 pm

  I also once won an award for 2nd Place in Dodgeball at the YMCA.

• 56 [troll] // May 23, 2008 at 2:56 pm

  cn - sht p, y’r nt bttr. Y cn prbbly ffrd smthng, y’r jst nt wllng t pt th mny frth.

  nywy - cll yr dntn, lt m s wht y thnk gttng rd f ths blg’s wrth - wll cnsdr mtchng t, ‘ky?

• 57 [troll] // May 23, 2008 at 2:58 pm

  b-why th hll d y thnk ’m hr? fllw ll tht nd thn sm. nd gn, dn’t s THT ln s prdctr fr th ftr.

  Bt t ch hs wn - y sm t hv hndl n t mch bttr thn d. Crry n.

• 58 Ira Sacharoff // May 23, 2008 at 3:03 pm

  To put things in perspective, buying a house has historically been a good thing to do over the long haul. The value would go up little by little as the mortgage was being paid off, or you could buy a home and rent it out so the tenant would pay off the mortgage and the value of the rental increased little by little. Around 2001, things seemed to change. Prices started escalating rapidly every year, and there was talk of a new paradigm where prices could never go down again.
  That’s where I see Seattle Bubble filling a need. I don’t see the Tim as a cheerleader for renting forever, or hoping that home prices always go down.. In fact, I’m going to predict that the Tim becomes a homeowner within five years.
  There’s been a lot of BS from the real estate industry and a counter to that is nice.
  Yes, I’ve read crazy rants on this blog from folks I’ve vehemently disagreed with, but I also regularly see a variety of opinions…
  About a name change…not yet, not until we’ve really hit bottom and the course is starting to reverse. Then I’d like to see ” Nowisagreattimetobuy.com”

• 59 Everett_Tom // May 23, 2008 at 3:08 pm

  For What it’s worth:

  I’m about the same age as Nostra"golly"Us. I also bought a home.. in CA, near Santa Cruz. I bought back in later 2003, as a home.. AND as a investment. I put money down, I spend time and money working on it, etc. I lived on a shoestring budget. We chose a house in a good neighborhood, at the top end of what we could afford. Good schools, and all those RE talking points…

  In mid 2007 I got a job offer up here, for a better paying job (in a state with no income tax). I took it. had I sold at the peak of the market (less then a 1 - 1 1/2 years before), I would have made about $100K in profit and sold in less the 3 weeks (we saw similar homes in our area have bidding wars in the first day).

  Unfortunately(for me), I missed the peak. After several months of price drops, we managed to sell at a profit of $12K(after RE fees, etc). That $12 made it so we were a little less then break even due to the upgrades we’d done. (note the $12K “profit” doesn’t take into account items like inflation, extra cost such property tax, etc… )

  I guess I just don’t quite agree with your idea of Real Estate being so safe. a few more months and I’ve been paying to get rid of it. (oh, we looked at renting it out.. we would have had to take a loss of > $500 / month to do that… not very appealing)

• 60 EconE // May 23, 2008 at 3:30 pm

  Nuestrodiablo…

  I have no intentions of trying to shut the blog down with donations.

  I support what Tim does. We obviously have different feelings about the site.

  I’m not posting any $ amounts here but will be glad to use S-crow as our escrow service just so Tim doesn’t have to look at your angry face.

  And no…I don’t donate online. Tim already knows that.

• 61 EconE // May 23, 2008 at 3:32 pm

  Oh…and Ira…if you’re referring to my crazy rants…most are just for "chocolate"s and giggles. I actually think you are cool as hell and would buy you a beer any day.

• 62 Ira Sacharoff // May 23, 2008 at 4:29 pm

  Thanks EconoE,
  I never actually thought of your rants as especially wack"chocolate", and I mostly agree with your viewpoint. And you’re right again: I am cool as hell.

• 63 S-Crow // May 23, 2008 at 5:05 pm

  1) Since this thread is all over the place, did anyone catch (via tv) the whole Manchester United vs. Chelsea match in Moscow? I saw the ESPN replay of the last 10 minutes and into penalty’s. Chelsea probably should have won it on penalties. I didn’t really care who won, but what a way to win/lose a championship.

  Speaking of championships, my son lost his baseball tourney last weekend on a coin toss. And they had the best record. Nutty. But it will help him build character.

  2) HEY RAY @ 500 REALTY. …….STILL WAITING FOR MY T-SHIRT!

  I WANT TO WEAR IT AROUND JUST TO SEE IF ANYONE THROWS A TOMATO AT ME AT THE STORE.

  3) ECONE- LOL! We have to figure out a escrow fee structure for $100.00 bets between you and Nostradamus! What happens if there is a dispute? Our instructions are pretty clear that we’ll have to turn it over to the courts, just like earnest money disputes. Now you have me thinking about my other project of commercial escrow: would really like to tap into aviation sales/escrow. Pretty cool stuff.

• 64 Alan // May 23, 2008 at 5:17 pm

  Everett_Tom,

  I’m in my mid-30’s. I’ve owned two homes. First in NC. Second in TX. I basically broke even on the two (I think I was up $10k on one and $2k on the other.

  It is not an uncommon story.

• 65 TJ_98370 // May 23, 2008 at 5:59 pm

  Ira - reference post # 58 (if it doesn’t change) ;

  Nice summary of the situation.

• 66 Mikal // May 23, 2008 at 7:39 pm

  I want to see a post from the Kool aide guy about donating. That be extremely appropriate.

• 67 AmazedRenter // May 23, 2008 at 7:42 pm

  What amazes me most is that Nostra"golly"us is still denying there ever was a bubble. How do you do that looking at the overwhelming evidence?

  I’d like a puff of what he’s smoking…yet I’m not interested in further reasoning. “Myopic” is not strong enough a word.

• 68 rent for now // May 23, 2008 at 7:45 pm

  SeattleBubble to me represents an independent voice. Not necessarily a bull or bear view, but a realistic view. As long as the site maintains its stance as a place for folks to get some hard data to use in decision making, and to counterbalance the RE shills if needed, then it will have a long life.

• 69 Mikal // May 23, 2008 at 9:55 pm

  It’s not quite that independent as it relies on rubes to DONATE money to see their views in print. Keep the dollars flowing as there is plenty of KOOL AIDE.

• 70 EconE // May 23, 2008 at 11:14 pm

  “It’s not quite that independent as it relies on rubes to DONATE money to see their views in print.”

  kinda like the NAR?

• 71 Ray Pepper // May 23, 2008 at 11:16 pm

  S Crow I will have Betsy (our secretary) Drop 2 Shirts in the mail tomorrow. I have promised so many people these shirts I tend to forget. I will have her send one to Tim as well.

  People WILL ask you what does it mean ” Your Only True Friend in Real Estate.” Be ready to educate the masses. However, They are not near as controversial as my P E T A shirt I bought at the Reno Rib Cook-off. It states: People for the Eating of Tasty Animals–and on the Back it says ” I like Cats they taste like Chicken.” It seems everytime I wear it someone comes up to me pissed and says ” Dogs taste Good too” I always reply …”Yes , I know”….

  Ray Pepper
  http://www.500Realty.net

• 72 NostraDamnUs // May 23, 2008 at 11:48 pm

  AmazedRenter - thus your nickname. Show me where I claimed there was no bubble.

• 73 [troll] // May 24, 2008 at 8:11 am

  cn
  nd n… dn’t dnt nln.
  ……………………..

  Nc t …..chpskt.

• 74 The Tim // May 24, 2008 at 8:17 am

  I can assure you he is no cheapskate.

• 75 matthew // May 24, 2008 at 9:16 am

  Nostradumbass,

  Why would you want to cease this blog? Is the truth hurting too much? Do you think if Seattlebubble no longer exists that the housing bubble with disappear and RAL will be able to sell his crappy overpriced house?

• 76 Garth // May 24, 2008 at 9:17 am

  b,

  The use of psychology over metrics Nostra"golly"Us is talking about is basically quoting Charlie Munger’s philosophies and Jon Galbraith’s A Short History of Financial Euphoria.
  http://www.amazon.com/gp/offer-listing/0140238565/ref=dp_olp_2

  There is a great speech Munger gave at Harvard they lays out a lot of details:
  http://www.loschmanagement.com/Berkshire%20Hathaway/Charlie%20munger/The%20Psychology%20of%20Human%20Misjudgement.htm

• 77 matthew // May 24, 2008 at 9:36 am

  I’ve been posting on this site for a few years now. Here is what I’ve noticed on this site regarding your average Seattlelite bubble denier. Here is a timeline:

  1. There is no bubble you “bubbleheads” are smoking crack.

  2. Real estate is local, only Nevada, California, and Florida are bubble areas are experiencing declines, Seattle won’t be affected.

  3. Most of the U.S. is experiencing a massive price correction, easy lending is starting to tighten, but Seattle is different! Home appreciation in Seattle was based on jobs and massive population increases, not easy lending.

  4. Seattle is starting to see a correction, but it won’t last. We are different. We may see a slight correction and then flat prices, but you are dreaming if you think you are going to see 25% or more price corrections in Seattle!

  5. (future) crickets chirping.

  I’ve also noticed that the older wave of dissenters (Kalateen, Meshugy) used to actually post some data regarding inventory and prices in the area. The new wave of dissenters (RAL and Nostradumbass) just post nonsensical garbage aimed at pissing people off.

  Could it be that there is no more data to support a rebound in the Seattle housing market and all that’s left for the bitter owners is to come to the front lines and vent their frustrations?

• 78 Lake Hills Renter // May 24, 2008 at 9:59 am

  I find the rants pretty amusing. Matthew is correct, there hasn’t been a troll since the Meshugy days that’s presented anything but vitrol and insults. And here we have all the current trolls accounted for in this very thread, contributing — as usual — nothing of value. But at least they supply a source of amusement, even if it is not quite at the target they intended. And I was reminded to donate. Thanks!

• 79 EconE // May 24, 2008 at 1:03 pm

  It’s pretty funny.

  I love all these sooooper successful homeowners.

  $100 bucks to shut down the blog?

  LOL…You loanowners are a bunch of pu$$ies!

  p.s. Let’s do lunch sometime Tim…I’ll make a donation you can actually spend ;^)

• 80 Affluent Bitter Renter // May 24, 2008 at 2:12 pm

  But it’s just so nice of the trolls to take the time to educate us bubble idiots, given that they could be rolling around naked on the huge piles of money they’ve made from all those sweet, sweet real estate deals.

• 81 [troll] // May 24, 2008 at 3:07 pm

  fflnt Bttr Rntr y r cndscndng twrp.
  …………………………………………

  Why ts smrtr t by thn rnt

  Yp, th clch s tr: Byng hm s n f th smrtst fnncl dcsns mst ppl wll vr mk.

  Dnt tk my wrd fr t. Tk th Fdrl Rsrvs. ts Srvy f Cnsmr Fnncs hs cnsstntly fnd hg gp btwn th wlth pld p by hmwnrs nd tht ccmltd by rntrs.

  vrg nt wrth f hmwnrs vs. rntrs
  nnl ncm wnrs Rntrs
  $80,000 nd p $451,200 $87,400

  Srly ll y fflnt Bbblhd rntrs mk mr thn 80k pr yr s wn’t pst th rst f th Fdrl Rsrv Brds fndngs, bt jst n cs y r n lwr brckt (cn thts y), clck hr t rd th rst f th rtcl:

  < hrf="http://mnycntrl.msn.cm/cntnt/Bnkng/Hmbynggd/P72655.sp" rl="nfllw">http://mnycntrl.msn.cm/cntnt/Bnkng/Hmbynggd/P72655.sp

• 82 [troll] // May 24, 2008 at 3:26 pm

  Ths wh wn thr hms typclly hv bt 20 t 40 tms mr nt wlth thn ths wh rnt.

  “Th dstrbtn f wlth n th ntd Stts s mr hghly skwd thn th dstrbtn f ncm. Nwhr s ths clrr thn n th cs f hmwnrs nd rntrs. Ths wh wn thr hms typclly hv bt 20 t 40 tms mr nt wlth thn ths wh rnt. ; lthgh hm qty plys rl n ths grwng dsprty, t ds nt flly xpln why rntrs hld fwr ssts thn hmwnrs. vn xcldng hm qty, rntrs r mr thn twc s lkly t b sst-pr s r hmwnrs. Rntrs ls hld smllr rng f ssts thn wnrs, sggstng tht hmwnrshp “mpls mr thn hm qty, nd s ssctd wth th wnrshp f wd rng f fnncl ssts”.

  < hrf="http://ds.rpc.rg/p/fp/fdfcw/2007-02.html" rl="nfllw">http://ds.rpc.rg/p/fp/fdfcw/2007-02.html

• 83 [troll] // May 24, 2008 at 3:39 pm

  Hrvrd stdy sys th mdn nt wlth f hmwnrs s 34 tms grtr thn tht f rntrs.

  “Hmwnrshp s th prmry cmpnnt n th crtn f wlth fr mny mrcns. Dt frm Hrvrd nvrsty’s Jnt Cntr f Hsng Stds llstrt nt nly tht th mdn nt wlth f hmwnrs s 34 tms grtr thn tht f rntrs, bt ls tht vr hlf f tht wlth s gnrtd frm hm qty. s y py dwn yr ln mnt ch mnth, y ccmlt qty, grwng wnrshp ntrst n yr prprty. f y nd fnds, y cn brrw gnst ths qty n th frm f hm qty ln. Frthr, ntrst n prtn f hm qty s tx-ddctbl.

  Mst hms pprct n vl vr tm nd cn b src f ncm fr y, spclly f y’v lvd n yr hs fr mny yrs. Whn y rtr, y cn sll yr hm f y nd th fnds r mk s f hm qty cnvrsn mrtgg.

  Fnlly, dn’t frgt bt th sgnfcnt tx dvntgs f wnng yr hm. ntrst n hm mrtgg nd prprty txs r ddctbl. Fr mst f s, mrtgg ntrst prvds th lrgst tx ddctn. ls, hm s th sngl mst mprtnt fctr tht dtrmns whthr y wll b bl t fl rtrn whch tks dvntg f th wd rng f llwbl tmzd ddctns. ”

  r Rntrs Lsrs?

• 84 Affluent Bitter Renter // May 24, 2008 at 3:51 pm

  “Affluent Bitter Renter you are a condescending twerp.”

  That’s Mister Condescending Twerp to you. (grin)

  Interesting stuff regarding net worth and homeownership - but it avoids the main point, which is is it a good idea to buy a house in Seattle in the summer of 2006. Whether it makes sense to buy a home in a nonbubble market is a different decision.

  Also, a piece of advice - Harvard University’s Joint Center of Housing Studies is supported by donations by the RE industry, and has long functioned as a shill for the RE industry. I know it is a shocking discovery that academics can be bought, but they don’t exactly have a lot of credibility.

• 85 Affluent Bitter Renter // May 24, 2008 at 3:52 pm

  ” is it a good idea to buy a house in Seattle in the summer of 2006″

  An interesting issue - but I meant summer of 2008.

• 86 Alan // May 24, 2008 at 7:43 pm

  I’ve been renting for two years and I don’t think I’m any worse off for it.

• 87 matthew // May 24, 2008 at 8:05 pm

  RAL,

  The only argument that you will hear on this blog is that buying during the last 3 or so years was a bad idea, not buying in general. So what is your point?

  Oh that’s right, you usually don’t have one.

  I plan on buying sometime soon, but why buy now when I can buy the same piece of property was considerably less in the near future? I’m not married, have no kids, and I live downtown. Why does buying make sense for me right now? I’ve saved a 20% down payment by renting the last couple of years and by shorting the stock market this year. I’m renting a condo for $1200/month, if I bought the condo I’m renting, my monthly payments would be over 2000k/month. The 800-1000k I’m saving has been going directly into savings and investments. Why pay full price to buy something when I can continue to save and pick something up in the near future at a large discount? Buy low sell high.

• 88 NotaBull // May 24, 2008 at 8:28 pm

  “The only argument that you will hear on this blog is that buying during the last 3 or so years was a bad idea, not buying in general. So what is your point?”

  Exactly. Morons like RAL miss the point entirely. They think there are two possible options:

  1) Buy now. Immediately. Call a realtor NOW. Buy NOW!!!!
  2) Never buy. Rent forever. Die poor and alone.

  In the minds of these idiots, people that currently rent have picked option (2). They are therefore stupid, naive and should be mocked.

  However, there is a third option:

  3) Rent for now, save money for down payment, and buy when you are comfortable that prices are at a point where any decline you experience is acceptable to you for the timeline during which you reasonably expect to hold the property.

  Simpletons like RAL and Nostrawhatever don’t seem to be able to grasp this simple and obvious third option.

• 89 James // May 24, 2008 at 8:43 pm

  The third option is a good one as long as the you’re actually investing or saving the difference between rent and a mortgage. The deduction for home ownership isn’t as much if your payments are double and you have mortgage insurance. Also, the maintenance of owning is more. Good advise Notabull!

• 90 deejayoh // May 24, 2008 at 10:28 pm

  I’ve been renting for 18 months and have a) avoided losing $30k in principal on the townhome I had under contract (according to Zillow) and b) saved about $500 a month by renting an equivalent place in nicer part of capitol hill and c) earned a decent return on what would have been my down payment.

  All told, I think I’m about $40-45k ahead of where I would have been had I bought.

  Oh, and I can still buy if I want to. But I think there’s more money on the table.

• 91 Ray Pepper // May 24, 2008 at 11:28 pm

  Quite honestly I think your all wrong…The time to buy is when you find a deal (GEM) and can financially do it. Tomorrow, next month, next year. I don’t care if you are going to live in it or rent it. The Gems are popping up everyday and I suspect this will go on for another few years. Target your area. Go to Foreclosure auctions if thats your game. I personally work the NWMLS and my TGT areas for my personal purchases.

  I just bought 2 additional properties as rentals and plan on Buying a home back in Gig Harbor in the next 90 days for my family. I will rent our Brick Tudor in North Tacoma. MLS # 25032497. Purchased it the day it hit the NWMLS in May 2005 for 300k. It is a GEM! Thats the joy of being a Buyer and not a builder. I have the option to rent mine. I do not have to sell. Why would I even attempt it now? It appraised last year for 480k. Most likely worth 430k now. Actually I think it would still sell for 450k. Before I bought that I sold MLS# 25016735 in Gig Harbor for 469k. Bought it in 10/2001 for 283k. The home sat for 8 months before I bought it. Another GEM! None of this is rocket science. It just takes EFFORT!

  Anyway, I may stretch the purchase to 120 days to let the New Construction Builder bleed some more. But, its a gamble, it could get SOLD. As I have found over the years there are many people looking for the same GEMS as I.

  Bubblers keep looking but always be ready to the pull the trigger. Educate yourself !! If a simple RN from the military can do it any of you can!! Be happy that we are in a time now that GEMS may sit for longer then they used to, and the sellers are scared as hell.

  Ray Pepper
  http://www.500Realty.net

• 92 Ira Sacharoff // May 25, 2008 at 9:36 am

  Like many things, the truth is somewhere in the middle. On the one hand, we have a few folks here who say that home prices are going to dive 80%, that this country is going to go through extended economic calamity, and that it’ll be a long time before home buying makes sense. Then we have a few folks who claim that renters are poor and stupid and live amongst cockroaches, and that only homebuying will make you rich.
  The fact is that most homes in the Seattle area cost a lot more than renting a comparable home, that prices are dropping, and we don’t exactly know where the bottom is. So from that perspective it’s a good idea to sit on the sidelines for now
  But there is an emotional component to home buying, and it’s not to supposed to make you rich, it’s supposed to free you from the mercies of landlords.
  And Ray is right also…For whatever reasons there are homes to be had at discounted prices( I won’t say gem, that’s a Pepper trademark), homes that are selling for significantly less than comparables. If you can afford the payments, and intend on owning it for 7+ years, it might not be a bad thing to do even right now.
  But overall, it makes less sense to buy right now that it has in the past. That doesn’t mean that it’s going to doom you if you do it.

• 93 redmondjp // May 25, 2008 at 10:47 pm

  Ray,

  You make it all sound so easy! Sure, buy these great deals and rent them out. But the reality is that being a landlord can be a major pain in the a$$, and having a property management company to avoid most of the pain ends up siphoning off much of your potential profits.

  My dad owned four duplexes for 25 years and I grew up fixing toilet flappers, replacing switches and outlets, and cleaning out clogged shower and kitchen sink drains (What? You can’t pour cooking grease down the drain????). The main advantage that we had is that three of the duplexes were on our block, so they were within a 5-minute walk. Easy to grab tools, walk over, and walk back to grab the tools you forgot. But we knew other out-of-town landlords for other duplexes on our block, and they would drive hundreds of miles and stay a week or two (using their vacation time) to fix up the place in-between tenants–now who wants to spend their vacation time painting and cleaning?

  And let’s not even begin to discuss the potential tenant issues (drug useage, unemployed, violent temper leads to holes in walls, divorcing, etc etc) that one may run into from time to time.

  All I am saying is that being a landlord can be a wonderful experience if you have good renters (most of our best renters ended up moving out and buying their own place eventually), or a freaking nightmare where you have to deal with sewer backups in the middle of the night, or go to court to evict your tenants after the water and electricity have been shut off and they are still living there anyways (BTDT) until the sheriff comes to force them to move. Ugh.

• 94 Ben // May 26, 2008 at 12:11 am

  RentersAreLosers,

  You should read up on correlation vs causality:

  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Correlation_does_not_imply_causation

  I have no doubt that people who own houses are richer than those who don’t. But you seem to be implying that buying the houses made them rich.

  I put it to you that they got rich, and therefore they can afford a house. This makes far more sense.

  BTW - I don’t rent. But I don’t think that my townhome purchase 5 years ago was a ticket to a magic carpet ride that made me rich.

• 95 [troll] // May 26, 2008 at 7:12 am

  pt t t y tht thy gt rch, nd thrfr thy cn ffrd hs. Ths mks fr mr sns.

  Bn,

  Y ddn’t clck n my lnk t vw th nt wrth ncm brkdwn, tsk.. tsk…
  Snc y cmmntd wtht vwng th rsrch prvdd, wll pst th ntr Fd’s tbl.

  Whl t mght mk mr sns th Fds stts dn’t shw t. n vry ncm grp th vrg nt wrth f hmwnrs fr xcds rntrs. Prhps t’s mndst f hmwnrs, prhps rntrs wll jstfy why thy shldn’t by bcs thy cn mk/sv mr mny lswhr. d blv tht th mjrty f rntrs DN’T fllw thr “svy” svngs prgrm, whch nvtbly pts thm t dsdvntg n nt wrth lngr trm. Th Fd’s nmbrs prv ths.

  vrg nt wrth f hmwnrs vs. rntrs
  nnl ncm wnrs Rntrs
  $80,000 nd p $451,200 $87,400
  $50,000 t $79,999 $194,610 $25,000
  $30,000 t $49,999 $126,500 $10,600
  $16,000 t $29,999 $112,600 $4,240
  ndr $16,000 $73,000 $500

• 96 [troll] // May 26, 2008 at 7:23 am

  Rdmndjp,

  nd lt’s nt vn bgn t dscss th ptntl tnnt sss (drg sg, nmplyd, vlnt tmpr lds t hls n wlls, dvrcng, tc tc) tht n my rn nt frm tm t tm.

  ll m syng s tht bng lndlrd cn b wndrfl xprnc f y hv gd rntrs (mst f r bst rntrs ndd p mvng t nd byng thr wn plc vntlly),
  …………………………………………….

  m gld y dscrbd yr xprnc wth rntrs (nd nt m :-))

  My Dd ws lndlrd s wll (dplxs, prtmnts nd cmmrcl) nd knw vry wll f wht y spk. cn ls cnfrm tht r bst rntrs mvd n qckly nd prchsd thr wn hm.

• 97 Affluent Bitter Renter // May 26, 2008 at 8:04 am

  “I do believe that the majority of renters DON’T follow their “savy” savings program, which enevitably puts them at a disadvantage in net worth longer term.”

  Arrrrgh!!! I have to agree with RAL!!! That is the major problem with the high income/renter strategy - you have to create a forced savings strategy equivalent to making a mortgage payment. Most people, whatever their good intentions, aren’t going to save enough if they have to make a monthly decision whether to save or not - you need to max out your 401K payment; take advantage of deferred comp, or whatever other savings avenues your employer offers; and arrange for a monthly automatic deduction from your checking account to invest in stocks and mutual funds. Then, you just live within the remainder of the money, and have a high savings rate without having to make any monthly decisions - this can be done, but it requires a bit of effort to set it up.

  However (returning to criticism) - the studies you cite look at data from the peak of the greatest housing bubble in history - it will be interesting to look at the data in 2010 (of course, many of today’s homeowners will be renters then - so RAL can then castigate them for being shiftless renters).

  Also, of course, anyone in a interest-only or negative-am mortgage isn’t actually doing any saving - they are merely servicing the interest on a huge leveraged debt. In a bubble, leverage is wonderful on the way up, and allows you to boast about how stupid the non-leveraged people are for not being leveraged; on the way down leverage murders you financially, as we are seeing across the country. One should really distinguish between saving (good), and taking on a huge leveraged obligation (works great when it works, and bankrupts you when it doesn’t).

• 98 Everett_Tom // May 26, 2008 at 8:19 am

  Oh OK RAL, I can see your in the mood to play with links.

  So I DID read your links.. here’s what stuck out to me

  (from http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/Banking/Homebuyingguide/P72655.asp)

  even Bach acknowledges buying a home isnt always the best choice. Sometimes youre smarter to hold off and rent, postponing the day when you graduate to the ranks of homeowner.

  and

  When I bought my first house, for example, Southern California was experiencing its worst-ever real-estate slump. The property, purchased with two friends, lost about 10% of its value in my initial years of ownership, then recovered to post a 20% price gain.

  Not bad, huh? Except after considering all my outlays for maintenance, repairs and insurance, and factoring in the tax benefits, I determined that I had barely broken even when compared with the rent I would have paid during those six years.

  Had I invested my down payment in an index fund that matched the Standard & Poors 500 instead, I could have tripled my money in the same period.

  and

  many Buy vs. Rent calculations — and most discussions of home ownership benefits in general — exaggerate the potential tax benefit.

  Heres a dose of reality:

  At least half of the nations homeowners get no tax break. Some own their homes outright, but many dont pay enough mortgage interest and/or property tax to be able to itemize.

  If you do get a tax break, its probably less than you think. What matters isn’t the total amount you pay in interest but whether all your deductions added together exceed the standard deduction amount.

  Hmmm, so if you read more then the the title, it certainly seems to support the position of most of the people on this blog, Rent now..wait, and buy when the time is right.. You probably should read more then the headline and the flashy chart.

  ok, now for your 2nd link (http://www.frbsf.org/publications/community/wpapers/2007/wp07-02.pdf)

  again, here’s what stood out:

  The evaluation includes a six-year series of annual interviews with a panel of CAP borrowers. In an attempt to isolate the effects of homeownership, we also fielded a panel of renters. Because of considerable differences in income and demographic composition, we cannot make meaningful compari