Comments on: NYT: “Even the Strong Are Weakening” http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/05/27/nyt-even-the-strong-are-weakening/ News & discussion about real estate & the housing bubble in the Seattle area. Sun, 08 Nov 2009 04:04:18 -0800 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.5 hourly 1 By: Kody McConnell http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/05/27/nyt-even-the-strong-are-weakening/#comment-49008 Kody McConnell Thu, 29 May 2008 01:03:38 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=1995#comment-49008 It is a well known fact in the real estate industry that the Pacific Northwest, and the Seattle area in particular, is always a year or two behind the national market. Prices here started inflating a couple years after the rest of the country, and now they are deflating a couple years after the rest of the country. This shouldn't be a surprise to anyone.<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('49008','Kody McConnell',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('49008','Kody McConnell','It is a well known fact in the real estate industry that the Pacific Northwest, and the Seattle area in particular, is always a year or two behind the national market. Prices here started inflating a couple years after the rest of the country, and now they are deflating a couple years after the rest of the country. This shouldn\'t be a surprise to anyone.',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> It is a well known fact in the real estate industry that the Pacific Northwest, and the Seattle area in particular, is always a year or two behind the national market. Prices here started inflating a couple years after the rest of the country, and now they are deflating a couple years after the rest of the country. This shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone.
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]]> By: vboring http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/05/27/nyt-even-the-strong-are-weakening/#comment-48953 vboring Wed, 28 May 2008 15:08:54 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=1995#comment-48953 is that the same NYT article with the graphic saying that the historic buy/rent price ratio was 10-14. and now it is about 17.9 in Seattle? essentially, the idea is that if you'd pay $1k to rent it. you should expect to pay $1k*12(months)*ratio to buy it. so, if you are looking to buy a place for $400k, you may want to ask yourself if someone would rent it from you for $2400/mo (using the 14x buy/rent ratio).<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('48953','vboring',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('48953','vboring','is that the same NYT article with the graphic saying that the historic buy\/rent price ratio was 10-14. and now it is about 17.9 in Seattle?\r\n\r\nessentially, the idea is that if you\'d pay $1k to rent it. you should expect to pay $1k*12(months)*ratio to buy it. \r\n\r\nso, if you are looking to buy a place for $400k, you may want to ask yourself if someone would rent it from you for $2400\/mo (using the 14x buy\/rent ratio).',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> is that the same NYT article with the graphic saying that the historic buy/rent price ratio was 10-14. and now it is about 17.9 in Seattle?

essentially, the idea is that if you’d pay $1k to rent it. you should expect to pay $1k*12(months)*ratio to buy it.

so, if you are looking to buy a place for $400k, you may want to ask yourself if someone would rent it from you for $2400/mo (using the 14x buy/rent ratio).

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]]> By: Pike-Pine Must Learn To Survive Without A BMW Dealership | hugeasscity http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/05/27/nyt-even-the-strong-are-weakening/#comment-48947 Pike-Pine Must Learn To Survive Without A BMW Dealership | hugeasscity Wed, 28 May 2008 07:19:20 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=1995#comment-48947 [...] that the Seattle housing market is cooling, it will be interesting to see what becomes of the BMW site, especially in light of the stalled [...]<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('48947','Pike-Pine Must Learn To Survive Without A BMW Dealership | hugeasscity',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('48947','Pike-Pine Must Learn To Survive Without A BMW Dealership | hugeasscity','[...] that the Seattle housing market is cooling, it will be interesting to see what becomes of the BMW site, especially in light of the stalled [...]',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> [...] that the Seattle housing market is cooling, it will be interesting to see what becomes of the BMW site, especially in light of the stalled [...]
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]]> By: TJ_98370 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/05/27/nyt-even-the-strong-are-weakening/#comment-48940 TJ_98370 Wed, 28 May 2008 04:36:04 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=1995#comment-48940 Hello Gill,

A key phrase in your linked article -

….I’m still not sure how good our timing was. Based on the backlog of houses on the market, I fully expect that our new house will be worth less in six months than it is today…..

The author admits knowledge of the risk of depreciation and considering other factors he still decides to buy. Good for him. He made an informed decision.

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]]> By: David McManus http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/05/27/nyt-even-the-strong-are-weakening/#comment-48935 David McManus Wed, 28 May 2008 03:19:26 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=1995#comment-48935 <i>"TheHulk // May 27, 2008 at 4:44 pm Meanwhile in other news, the NAR has been dealt a significant blow by the DOJ. Internet realtors like redfin and zillow can no longer be discriminated against. Now, these sites can compete against the likes of johnlscott or windermere on a more equal footing. http://www.networkworld.com/community/node/28143 Now maybe we will see that horrible 6% commission come down to something like 3%." </i> This was Slashdotted as well. Sounds like good news to me. We'll see what actually happens. http://news.slashdot.org/article.pl?sid=08/05/27/2044207&from=rss<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('48935','David McManus',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('48935','David McManus','<i>\"TheHulk \/\/ May 27, 2008 at 4:44 pm\r\n\r\nMeanwhile in other news, the NAR has been dealt a significant blow by the DOJ. Internet realtors like redfin and zillow can no longer be discriminated against. Now, these sites can compete against the likes of johnlscott or windermere on a more equal footing.\r\nhttp:\/\/www.networkworld.com\/community\/node\/28143\r\n\r\nNow maybe we will see that horrible 6% commission come down to something like 3%.\"\r\n<\/i>\r\n\r\nThis was Slashdotted as well. Sounds like good news to me. We\'ll see what actually happens.\r\n\r\nhttp:\/\/news.slashdot.org\/article.pl?sid=08\/05\/27\/2044207&from=rss',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> “TheHulk // May 27, 2008 at 4:44 pm

Meanwhile in other news, the NAR has been dealt a significant blow by the DOJ. Internet realtors like redfin and zillow can no longer be discriminated against. Now, these sites can compete against the likes of johnlscott or windermere on a more equal footing.
http://www.networkworld.com/community/node/28143

Now maybe we will see that horrible 6% commission come down to something like 3%.”

This was Slashdotted as well. Sounds like good news to me. We’ll see what actually happens.

http://news.slashdot.org/article.pl?sid=08/05/27/2044207&from=rss

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]]> By: gill http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/05/27/nyt-even-the-strong-are-weakening/#comment-48923 gill Wed, 28 May 2008 00:34:09 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=1995#comment-48923 whoops! sorry for the double post!<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('48923','gill',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('48923','gill','whoops! sorry for the double post!',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> whoops! sorry for the double post!
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]]> By: The Tim http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/05/27/nyt-even-the-strong-are-weakening/#comment-48919 The Tim Tue, 27 May 2008 23:50:47 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=1995#comment-48919 Sorry Gill, for some reason your earlier comment went into the spam bin. I have pulled it back out, as you can see @ #1 above.<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('48919','The Tim',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('48919','The Tim','Sorry Gill, for some reason your earlier comment went into the spam bin. I have pulled it back out, as you can see @ #1 above.',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> Sorry Gill, for some reason your earlier comment went into the spam bin. I have pulled it back out, as you can see @ #1 above.
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]]> By: Gill http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/05/27/nyt-even-the-strong-are-weakening/#comment-48918 Gill Tue, 27 May 2008 23:49:14 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=1995#comment-48918 Tried to post a link earlier twice but it didn't take -- There's also another article in the same NYT about a long-time "renting is better" advocate changing their mind recently after a move to Washington. Just FYI, it's on the cover of today's Times.<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('48918','Gill',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('48918','Gill','Tried to post a link earlier twice but it didn\'t take --\r\n\r\nThere\'s also another article in the same NYT about a long-time \"renting is better\" advocate changing their mind recently after a move to Washington.\r\n\r\nJust FYI, it\'s on the cover of today\'s Times.',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> Tried to post a link earlier twice but it didn’t take –

There’s also another article in the same NYT about a long-time “renting is better” advocate changing their mind recently after a move to Washington.

Just FYI, it’s on the cover of today’s Times.

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]]> By: TheHulk http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/05/27/nyt-even-the-strong-are-weakening/#comment-48917 TheHulk Tue, 27 May 2008 23:44:55 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=1995#comment-48917 Meanwhile in other news, the NAR has been dealt a significant blow by the DOJ. Internet realtors like redfin and zillow can no longer be discriminated against. Now, these sites can compete against the likes of johnlscott or windermere on a more equal footing. http://www.networkworld.com/community/node/28143 Now maybe we will see that horrible 6% commission come down to something like 3%.<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('48917','TheHulk',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('48917','TheHulk','Meanwhile in other news, the NAR has been dealt a significant blow by the DOJ. Internet realtors like redfin and zillow can no longer be discriminated against. Now, these sites can compete against the likes of johnlscott or windermere on a more equal footing.\r\nhttp:\/\/www.networkworld.com\/community\/node\/28143\r\n\r\nNow maybe we will see that horrible 6% commission come down to something like 3%.',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> Meanwhile in other news, the NAR has been dealt a significant blow by the DOJ. Internet realtors like redfin and zillow can no longer be discriminated against. Now, these sites can compete against the likes of johnlscott or windermere on a more equal footing.
http://www.networkworld.com/community/node/28143

Now maybe we will see that horrible 6% commission come down to something like 3%.

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]]> By: biliruben http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/05/27/nyt-even-the-strong-are-weakening/#comment-48909 biliruben Tue, 27 May 2008 23:15:11 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=1995#comment-48909 I think the loose lending basically borrowed a good portion of those Seattle buyers who would have bought in 2008-10, and squeezed them into a house now. The downside is that a portion of those who could have reasonably afforded a home had they waited and saved up instead of buying an over-priced house earlier than was fiscally prudent, won't keep there homes, and will be soured on homeownership for a long, long time. This will end up leading to a net-loss of homeowners in the long-term.<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('48909','biliruben',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('48909','biliruben','I think the loose lending basically borrowed a good portion of those Seattle buyers who would have bought in 2008-10, and squeezed them into a house now.\r\n\r\nThe downside is that a portion of those who could have reasonably afforded a home had they waited and saved up instead of buying an over-priced house earlier than was fiscally prudent, won\'t keep there homes, and will be soured on homeownership for a long, long time. This will end up leading to a net-loss of homeowners in the long-term.',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> I think the loose lending basically borrowed a good portion of those Seattle buyers who would have bought in 2008-10, and squeezed them into a house now.

The downside is that a portion of those who could have reasonably afforded a home had they waited and saved up instead of buying an over-priced house earlier than was fiscally prudent, won’t keep there homes, and will be soured on homeownership for a long, long time. This will end up leading to a net-loss of homeowners in the long-term.

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]]> By: Gill http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/05/27/nyt-even-the-strong-are-weakening/#comment-48907 Gill Tue, 27 May 2008 23:08:39 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=1995#comment-48907 And for the long-time "it's better to rent" argument, check out this take: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/28/business/28leonhardt.html?hp<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('48907','Gill',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('48907','Gill','And for the long-time \"it\'s better to rent\" argument, check out this take:\r\n\r\nhttp:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2008\/05\/28\/business\/28leonhardt.html?hp',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> And for the long-time “it’s better to rent” argument, check out this take:

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/28/business/28leonhardt.html?hp

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