Seattle Bubble

• This Wasn’t The Way it Was Last Year
• Ask The So-Called Expert
• Comparing Past Market Crashes
• Forbes: Seattle is #1
• Inman Good For A Laugh

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135 responses so far ↓

• 1 Blah // May 30, 2008 at 11:27 am

  I wanted to post this again because I think it’s relevent.

  This house http://www.4142-53rdavesw.com/ is competing with the house across the street http://www.zillow.com/HomeDetails.htm?zprop=48656286 that is, I believe a comparable comp, that is trying too sell for ~$250K less. Did this flipper get cought in a bad market? What can they do to sell this thing?

• 2 Ben // May 30, 2008 at 11:47 am

  My Redfin search updates showed me some interesting stuff last night.

  The first thing was a whole lot of Buchan homes properties dropping 50k - 100k overnight. Some of them on market for about a year already. Some of them have raised the price before and now dropping back down. The fact that they all happened the same day makes me imagine that there was a directive at head office to drop some prices.

  The other interesting thing was a neighbourhood in Issaquah, where somebody put their lived-in house for sale for $1m, a few doors down from a brand new house of exactly the same floorplan selling for $50k less. Why their agent set a price above a brand new house, of the same floor plan, that has not sold for months and months (so long that it has been relisted once already) is beyond me. The same neighbourhood also has another house 210 days on market, with the asking price $165k below the original asking price after 5 price drops.

  I think that the industry is still made up of people naive about technology, most of whom have no idea that it is very easy for me to observe stuff like this. I spend maybe 15 - 30 minutes a day, a few days a week, playing around with Redfin and I bet I see more patterns than a lot of agents do. Or do they know what is happening and they think it is hard for others to find out?

  Thanks to Seattle Bubble I know of at least one sensible agent to talk to when (if?) the time comes (Ira).

• 3 Jimmythev // May 30, 2008 at 11:51 am

  Ouch Blah! That guy is smoking something if he thinks he’s going to get 850k for that house!

• 4 Ben // May 30, 2008 at 11:57 am

  Blah,

  The more expensive house is remodeled, so that is worth something. Not 250k though.

  At least they made a good website for the house with lots of pictures. Considering the effort and expense for this (pretty much zero dollars + a day) it is amazing that more people don’t do it.

• 5 softwarengineer // May 30, 2008 at 12:00 pm

  THEY LIVE IN A TRAILER NOW

  My friend knows a Seattle area couple that inherited a $450K home decades ago by paying off their siblings $20K. Well guess what, this average Seattle two income family [approx $50K/yr] thought, geeeee….my home is a cash machine, so 2nd mortgaged it to death at $350K.

  Over a year ago they tried selling it for $450K, it simply wouldn’t sell. They finally lowered the price to $350K and sold it, as they were forced to drastically lower the price because the 2nd mortgage balloon payments were eating them alive and it was sell low or lose everything.

  This subprime mess isn’t just new buyers. This couple had it made in a cheap affordable Seattle home and they totally blew it with 2nd mortgage greed.

• 6 TheHulk // May 30, 2008 at 12:12 pm

  Ben,

  I have seen patterns that are similar to what you have observed. I think there are 2 things at work here.

  1. The seller is unrealistic about current prices. I don’t blame them entirely. Its hard to stomach losses, even if they are paper losses. I am sure a bunch of sellers are regretting the fact that they decided not to sell last spring (more so if they remodeled and “upgraded” to granite and whatnot). If they look at comps nearby (homes sold in last 3-6 months), they are still going to see the inflated prices that some people paid just when the bubble was bursting. Add to this the optimism that “my house is the BEST in the BEST neighborhood with the BEST schools” and throw in a 10K premium if not more. Ego also comes into the picture with (I maintained my house better than HIM and see how much that dump sold for!! etc etc.)

  2. Now enters the realtor. Business has been tough lately (sales down 50% or whatever it is, yada yada yada). He desperately needs the to sell homes (any homes). Thus, he needs to get THIS guys house on the market. A sensible realtor (Ira?) might try convincing the owner that his delusions do not make sense in this market and that his house is only going to sit on MLS for a year. A greedy realtor might even inflate the owners expectations (whats he got to lose? if he can get a sucker to buy the house at that price, his commission is still 3%).

  Both these factors contribute to the weird prices that you see more often than not.

  Don’t worry too much about it. Like the main article says once the “peak” selling season passes and people see the “trough” in house sales lets just say it wont be pretty. I expect 15-20% declines across the board and upto 40% in outlying suburbs that have the most foreclosures. We should be back to 2002/2003 prices in a couple of years.

• 7 vboring // May 30, 2008 at 12:34 pm

  at least now people can stop blaming Seattle Bubble for falling prices.

  US News gets to be the new whipping boy.

• 8 vboring // May 30, 2008 at 12:42 pm

  TheHulk,

  you seem to have your Buyer’s Agents and Seller’s Agents mixed up.

  a Seller’s Agent is hired by the seller. their incentive is to decrease the amount of time it takes the house to sell by convincing the seller to reduce the price.

  the Buyer’s agent is hired by the buyer. their incentive is to encourage the buyer to buy anything at any price as quickly as possible.

  both types of agents have the additional incentive to appear smart and helpful so that they will be recommended to their client’s friends and family.

  this topic was covered very well in Freakonomics (the book).

• 9 Happy Renter // May 30, 2008 at 12:46 pm

  Are either of those linked houses worth nearly so much?
  I guess if the more expensive one was the same price/sqft as the less expensive, it’d cost about 700k (so that’s a bit less of a discrepancy) …but still..
  I might pay 500 for the remodeled one, if I were in the market for a 500k house. I need to move back east. :)

• 10 Ray Pepper // May 30, 2008 at 1:28 pm

  Just a few notes…Homes in Nv and other hot spots went up 100-300%. Homes in Washington in the same time frame did NOT ever Reach those levels of appreciation. Homes did double but I have not seen a triple here like I did in Reno, Sac, and Vegas.

  So therefore assuming its the same Bubble we are talking about we have alot less to come down. Use your graphs and chart it but i lived it and touched it.

  As for Zip Realty. Come on! Anyone ever call their offices? Notice how nobody ever picks up? Giving Buyers 20% of their commission? HELLO!!!!!!!!!

  HELLO!!!!! 20% !!!! 25% savings when you sell???? They better get that Merger with Zillow completed so they can get some web traffic. They have a FAR INFERIOR MODEL to 500 Realty and Red Fin. Good GOD! Look at there share price of 4.00!!…

  Get yourself Fixed Zip and give some more money back to the Consumers instead of lecturing on the markets. Lecture on your PPS and how you will BRING VALUE TO THE SHAREHOLDERS with a 25% REBATE TO BUYERS!!

  HELLO HELLO!!

  Ray Pepper
  Broker
  http://www.500Realty.net

• 11 TheHulk // May 30, 2008 at 1:37 pm

  vboring,

  I get your point and understand the concept. Regardless of “buyers” agent or “sellers” agent don’t they both make 3% of the sale price of the house. Thus, if the house sells for 200K, both agents get 6K each.

  Back to my point. You are the sellers agent. Your clients adamantly insist my house is worth 750K. In your mind, you know unless they price it at 600K they are not going to get any offers. For you, if you keep insisting that they lower the price, they might refuse to go with you as their agent and find someone else. In a market where you are looking for *any* business, wouldn’t you say well ok, lets try listing it at 750K if we dont get any offers in x amount of time, we will bring the price down etc. That is the reason Ben is seeing those out-of-whack listing prices.

  I have read the book you mention as well. In that, the author points out that the sellers agent has no real incentive in pushing the price by 10-20K since all they see is a 300/600$ increase in their paycheck (in fact its 50% of that since half the commission goes to the company). But they wont see any harm in listing it at a higher price initially if its just to retain the account.

  I also remember that the author obtained this difference in behavior by comparing what the agents houses sold for in the same market as compared to clients houses (thus them getting 10K instead of 300).

• 12 AndySeattle // May 30, 2008 at 1:37 pm

  Nice commercial Ray… Who are you talking to again?

• 13 Ira Sacharoff // May 30, 2008 at 1:52 pm

  I noticed that in the 834,000 dollar house, the owner is a licensed real estate agent.
  So you can’t accuse the seller of not taking his agent’s advice, since he is the agent.
  Maybe there are pounds of cocaine in the basement, but it sure seems to be overpriced by about 200,000+ dollars.

• 14 Birdie Num Nums // May 30, 2008 at 2:03 pm

  So, Softwarengineer, what did that couple do with that $350K they got on the 2nd mortgage? Invest it? Splurge? Or what?

• 15 Ray Pepper // May 30, 2008 at 2:25 pm

  Andy I got a little carried away. I think I’m looking forward to that movie “The Strangers” tonight. Nothing better then a lil Panera Bread for dinner then Slice em and dice’em!

  Sorry Zip. You 20% return to the consumer is a great service to the community!
  I applaud your efforts!

• 16 Blah // May 30, 2008 at 2:54 pm

  TheTim,

  You should work something up like this, http://activerain.com/blogsview/529657/Predicting-The-Future-of, for the Seattle area.

• 17 Gill // May 30, 2008 at 3:12 pm

  I don’t get this blog…am I the only one?

  When I first came across it Seattle Bubble looked like an objective look at real estate/market data for Seattle and the nation but the longer I hang around it just looks like TheTim’s hellish interpretation of the all-too-positive Seattle real estate agent’s heaven-on-earth.

  Seriously, if you keep presenting this kind of bullsh*t in an authoritative fashion and as fact there’s really no reason to check in here any longer. Sensational at best.

  The ego-inflated arguments are sometimes fun to follow, but…where’s the data, dude?

• 18 John // May 30, 2008 at 4:16 pm

  Gill, where’s data? You see the charts, right? Case-Shiller? Are you also blind to the name of this blog? Home prices are going down in Seattle, even the Seattle Times says so. There isn’t much of a middle ground if that’s what you are looking for. It is either raining or not raining. Tim and others have presented their arguments with statistics and personal observations in the industry. That’s good enough for me.

• 19 Bits_of_Real_Panther // May 30, 2008 at 4:19 pm

  “home values in the drizzly gem of the Pacific Northwest have fallen a modest 4.4 percent over the past year—a cakewalk compared with former housing boom hot spots like Las Vegas (-25.9 percent), Miami (-24.6 percent), and Phoenix (-23 percent).”

  Those other three areas peaked much higher, anywhere from 227 to 280 (Miami) on the index. Seattle peaked at 192. If you want to interpolate some numbers to get a target decline for Seattle that’s fine by me but this comment implies something else. Miami is still above 200 by the way, as Seattle sits at 178

• 20 Ubersalad, Ph.D // May 30, 2008 at 4:38 pm

  Right now we’re in the season where sales from month to month is improving every year…so naturally everyone is spinning it in a positive way.

  SeattleBubble can probably shut down for the whole Summer and turn back on in Fall, when it’ll be clear if bubble exist or not.

• 21 magnolia44 // May 30, 2008 at 4:49 pm

  gulp… just got our reassesment of property taxes nice to see they raised the value $40k on our home. This is BS but i guess one of the joys of ownership, when will they take the downturn into account? (lol i know they never do its a joke)

  Can some of these taxes go to the roads, i swear we have the worst roads in america… they make my nice car sound crappy at times.

• 22 Ubersalad, Ph.D // May 30, 2008 at 4:57 pm

  Worst roads? Go visit Orlando =).

• 23 Sarge // May 30, 2008 at 5:55 pm

  The English language is polluted with plenty of slang these days and in that spirit I would like to coin this as a new term for the items people bought with their 2nd mortgages that are now ‘upside down’ (mortgage is more than the value of the house). New boat, motor home, kitchen remodel, vacation, etc.

  What’s your Upside-down?

• 24 johnsgonefishin // May 30, 2008 at 6:51 pm

  Ray Pepper said “Just a few notes…Homes in Nv and other hot spots went up 100-300%. Homes in Washington in the same time frame did NOT ever Reach those levels of appreciation. Homes did double but I have not seen a triple here like I did in Reno, Sac, and Vegas.
  —————————————————————
  So therefore assuming its the same Bubble we are talking about we have alot less to come down. Use your graphs and chart it but i lived it and touched it. ”

  Seattle area over the last 20 years has had a huge run up with no correction. I think it would compare to the 300% you are looking at. Seattle run up was longer and a little slower than NV and Phx but Phoenix was very slow to stable growth for the 20 years prior to run up. I believe because of this Seattle may have the furthest to correct and will take the longest to recover.

• 25 alex // May 30, 2008 at 7:07 pm

  I commented before about how 500k seems to be a “hard to break” psychological limit for the typical “nice house” on the Eastside (newer/2000sqft/3+beds/2.5bed).

  Here’s evidence that this psychological limit is finally being broken:
  http://www.johnlscott.com/propertydetail.aspx?GroupID=66968273&ListingID=31920260

• 26 alex // May 30, 2008 at 7:11 pm

  I don’t see my own posts…. what changed?

• 27 [troll] // May 30, 2008 at 8:19 pm

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  Chrs!

• 28 Ubersalad // May 30, 2008 at 8:27 pm

  Why exactly are you here? It’s obvious that everyone sings the same tune here, what benefit does it serve you to argue your point here. I am actually being generous by referring your gibberish as point, which there is none.

  Stabilize? Show me signs of actual stabilization, where’s your data?

• 29 economist // May 30, 2008 at 8:43 pm

  the Buyer’s agent is hired by the buyer. their incentive is to encourage the buyer to buy anything at any price as quickly as possible.

  Which means, of course, that they are really the seller’s agent.

  Oh BTW they aren’t “hired by the buyer” because they are paid by sales commission. You wouldn’t say a used car salesman is hired by the buyer would you?

• 30 Ben // May 30, 2008 at 9:15 pm

  Ray,

  I don’t think that people have a problem with you putting your competitors down because they like them better. People don’t like you putting your competitors down when it sounds like an advertisement.

  You are obviously the small business type who can’t stop talking about your business, and it does not sound like advertising to you any more. I believe that you add value to the blog, because you see a lot of stuff here and in other places. But when you start to sound like an infomercial it is a bit much.

• 31 Ben // May 30, 2008 at 9:17 pm

  RentersAreLosers,

  I have finally decided that you are a troll. I came to this conclusion because nobody in their right mind would call our situation stabilizing. I think that you are here to entertain yourself.

  Oh - and just a reminder again, I don’t rent. I don’t plan to rent for a very long time. But I don’t think people who rent are losers.

• 32 [troll] // May 30, 2008 at 9:29 pm

  Bn,

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• 33 Thomas B. // May 30, 2008 at 10:02 pm

  Wow… rentersarelosers sounds bitter. Must be a realtor that lost his shirt flipping. Is this Ben Kakimoto? Didn’t you threaten to kick someone’s a** on your blog? If this is Ben, I think you should seek mental help before the stress makes you have a breakdown. Seriously.

• 34 Scotsman // May 30, 2008 at 10:07 pm

  I’ll repost these two homes I’ve been watching for a while. They are exactly the same square footage, literally within a block of each other, and the same age and level of finish. No action on either one for months. To me this shows that prices for both still have a ways to fall.

  What chance does the higher priced seller really think they have of selling?

  http://www.johnlscott.com/propertydetail.aspx?IS=1&ListingID=30990559

  http://www.johnlscott.com/propertydetail.aspx?IS=1&ListingID=31652925

• 35 Scotsman // May 30, 2008 at 10:19 pm

  My apologies if this posts twice- it didn’t seem to go through the first time.

  I’ve been watching these two houses for some time- since the first of the year. Both are exactly the same square footage, both were built the same year, to the same level of finish, and are within a block of each other. The asking price difference is $70,000, or about 10%. Neither has ever gone STI. To me this suggests that prices still have a long way to fall before buyers will come back into the market in force.

  http://www.johnlscott.com/propertydetail.aspx?IS=1&ListingID=30990559

  http://www.johnlscott.com/propertydetail.aspx?IS=1&ListingID=31652925

• 36 Mikal // May 30, 2008 at 10:19 pm

  Amen brother. RAL, I agree with what you have said. However, I have had to work in Spanaway the last couple of days and there are ALOT of houses for sale. While driving through an area I counted at least 100 lots that had utilities and streets already done that I will be shocked to see built. Granted it has been ten years since I had to work down there, but who knows. The slow down there will connect to the more local area in someway as I think investments are all interrelated. To what degree who knows. You are right about the graph as being the biggest load of SHI@. That said, have you donated? This is a great place to pick up people that want to be parted from their money. And you know the saying. Housing will always be more expensive here than only a handful of other cities in the US. They will never drop enough for some of you to afford it. If a house on Queen Anne that was selling for a million at the top of the market were to drop to even $350,000 it wouldn’t be you getting it as there would be 1000 others and probably more chasing it . Be realistic. For one, if the market drops that far the world will be in a depression and we will most likely all be out of work meaning you still won’t be able to afford it. Yes, I still think anyone buying a house right now is out of their minds. And I don’t mean this to all here. Some here have some really interesting views on things.

• 37 Ira Sacharoff // May 30, 2008 at 10:52 pm

  Rentersarelosers,
  While I find some of your posts interesting and actually agree with you once in a while, I’ve got to say that you’ve brought some of this antagonism on yourself.
  first, your handle. Second, referring to renters as folks living in noisy, bug infested apartments…Are you currently a landlord? If so, is it healthy for you to have such utter disrespect for those who help pay your bills?
  I’ve been a landlord, and have had a mix of tenants ranging from perfect tenants who I remain friends with many years later, to the tenants from Hell( like the Michael Keaton character in “Pacific Heights”).
  But I’d never lump ‘em all together and call them losers, and then expect to have a decent conversation with them

• 38 Ubersalad // May 30, 2008 at 10:59 pm

  If you think Seattle housing price is justifiable, God bless you for that you have a foot in the door before this recent boom.

  100k household can’t afford this ridiculous housing market, please tell me how anyone can raise a family and purchase home in Seattle without racking up crap load of debt.

  Just do some simple math…

• 39 Ubersalad // May 30, 2008 at 11:05 pm

  Oh another thing, it’s quite misleading to think you’re somehow ahead because you had purchased your home prior to the boom, and traded your way up into a price tag of 600k-700k. Now you feel the need to defend your newfound status as middle class American and of course, you can’t imagine yourself living in the 200k slum anymore. I feel your anguish as well buddy…

• 40 Scotsman // May 30, 2008 at 11:12 pm

  Owners ARE losers. They’ve lost equity over the past year, and stand to loose a lot more over the next two or three years. That fact is indisputable. Now whether renters are losers is open to debate. But the facts suggest renters are more likely to have had their net worth increase over the last year or so than owners. That would make them winners in the context of this blog.

  Rentersarelosers is a troll. plain and simple. No facts, no reasoned debate, just insults, ad-hominem attacks, and anger. Don’t feed the troll.

• 41 economist // May 30, 2008 at 11:15 pm

  You just don’t like to hear it., probably because you are underwater.

  Um RAL, how could anyone be underwater if the market is still going up as you claim?

  Maybe you’re the guy who’s underwater? Who’s the real loser?

• 42 Bankruptcy Attorney // May 30, 2008 at 11:17 pm

  None of us can learn from group think. This blog would lose all credibility if dissenters are banned. Although I generally disagree with RAL I enjoy his or her posts. RAL is a little abraisive but not offensive.

• 43 Ray Pepper // May 30, 2008 at 11:38 pm

  Ben, I apologize that you see my blogs as infomercials for 500 Realty. MANY TIMES They Are!. Our message is too important to not be heard. I pray for the day that there are more companies doing what we do. The public simply just doesn’t understand. I suspect it will take another few years.

  Until then, whenever I take the time to Blog prepare to be educated a bit more on 500 Realty and my praise for Red Fin, Shop Prop, Iggy’s, etc….But, as for Zip Realty. Hey….25% back to the Consumer? No Way!! That is by far an inferior company as illustrated by its pps on the Nasdaq. Not even in the same league as 500 Realty and Red Fin.

  Furthermore, I must “apologize” ahead of time for what you will be seeing this summer. $10,000 alotted to college kids is buying 500 Realty 1176 hours of sign holding our messages up at busy intersections throughout Bellevue, Seattle, Tacoma, Renton, and Gig Harbor.

  Is it Tacky ?? Maybe! Is it Gorilla marketing Yes! Has it ever been done by Real Estate companies?? Has any Real Estate company ever had a message so important to hear? I doubt it… That just goes to show you how important we feel our message is…NOW MORE THEN EVER!….

  Excuse me for my ramblings but there is and continues to be TOO MUCH WASTED from the consumers in buying and selling Real Estate. The Consumers need this money now more then ever. We will continue to do our small part….Just be happy we exist.

  You will also be happy to know any money I EVER make goes right back into 500 Realty. My family lives off our Real Estate investments. I know that maybe hard for many to believe here but trust me when I say REAL ESTATE will always be the answer to wealth. The stock market has always been titillation for me and I never made any real money. I’m not smart enough to invent something. So I buy and sell…Mostly Buy.

  Find your GEMS……………………………Ben….the commercial is over…..

  Ray Pepper
  http://www.500Realty.net

• 44 The Tim // May 30, 2008 at 11:54 pm

  Furthermore, I think this website is a crock of crap. A hangout for frustrated Seattleites that never owned real estate.

  The funny thing is, the only commenters that come across to me as “frustrated” are the angry home “owners” like RAL and Nostra.

• 45 shawn // May 31, 2008 at 1:28 am

  “My best guess is that they will all be left in the dust when the markets take off again.”

  So, you are telling me that what typically happens in real estate markets is that there is a ramp up of pricing followed by a slowdown, maybe a drop in prices. Then, almost immediately, prices takes off again rising, pricing me out forever. Wow, thanks for the heads up. I was foolishly thinking it tends to “flatten” after it hits a bottom followed by slowly rising again. ;)

• 46 Ben // May 31, 2008 at 1:46 am

  Ray - you certainly are entertaining. Let me give you some points:

  a) Commenting on somebody else’s blog is not blogging in my book. To me, blogging is when you make your own blog and make posts on it. Do you have something like this? You can make your own for free at blogger or wordpress. The best thing is that you can go on about whatever you want, and it is your blog and your rules. But when you post here, you should respect Tim.

  b) Your horrific spelling makes me cringe when I read your stuff. If you want to get ahead in business, you need to take five minutes to spell better. It took me a while to see that when you said “Gorilla” you meant “guerilla”. I will abstain from pointing out your other mistakes, but suffice to say you come across like somebody who did not finish school.

  c) Why are you telling people here about real estate business models? Nobody on this blog has ever defended them, and my observation has been that the bubble blog camp on the internet is against the whole traditional real estate commission model. I ask you because you come across like you are expecting an argument from people here, and it makes your posts sound antagonistic.

  d) I think that your $10k would be better spent sprucing your website and paying college kids to help you make a web site for each house that you are trying to sell. This would give you great word of mouth in the end, and show that you are really doing more for the money than your competition. Spending it on kids holding signs at intersections just annoys people and makes your brand more tacky. Just sayin’.

• 47 Ben // May 31, 2008 at 1:54 am

  RentersAreLosers,

  I have no idea if I am underwater or not. But I really doubt it, based on watching the inventory move in my little community. I honestly don’t care, because to be underwater I would have to have prices at less than 2003 levels, and if prices got back down to there I would gladly buy a bigger place.

  I am clueless as to why you read here and post here unless you want to antagonize people. That makes you a troll. All of the graphs that Tim posts have clear explanations of the axes and explains what is going on. You must be really insecure to feel like he is trying to bamboozle you.

  But if it makes you happy to come here and give people crap, go ahead and do it. I don’t care if you get banned or not. Sooner or later even I will get sick of trying to talk to you. It seems like you want to throw hate at everybody who disagrees with you, and you only want to give out disagreeable conversation.

• 48 [troll] // May 31, 2008 at 6:06 am

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  …………………

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  Th S cnmy s nt n bd shp, w r nt hdd nt rcssn r dprssn. mrcns n gnrl hv vry hgh lvng stndrd cmprd t mny thr wstrn cntrs. W r spld rttn.

  W my hv hd mld “bbbl” n Sttl Rl stt, bt y cn rcgnz tht Sttl hs nt xprncd th wld swngs n hsng prcs tht thr rs hv ncntrd. Sttl hs bn n slw stdy clmb nd th pllbck n 10 yr chrt sms mnr t ths pnt. Shld th hrdst ht rs n th S strt t prk p ( xpct ths t hppn sn) prdct Sttl wll rsm t’s stdy clmb gn. Dwnsd rsk s lmtd t ths pnt.

  ll n my hmbl pnn f crs………….

• 49 Ray Pepper // May 31, 2008 at 6:36 am

  Ben, I will spend more time when I blog. I cannot stand grammatical errors in any form of business or even blogging. It DOES make one look unprofessional. I fully agree. I assure you I rarely make spelling errors.

  Ben please trust me when I say this. I believe there are many that like my content when I blog. I get emails and phone calls all the time. Only YOU and various agents get on my case. Tim, also has warned me a couple times to tone it down. So I have. However, if you mention Zip Realty in any context YOU WILL GET MY OPINION of failed IPO and why it has.

  Is it possible you can skip over my blogs? I’m on Yahoo message boards and I always do that when I Bash or Pump company stocks.

  Lastly, you and my partners must be correct about the 500 Website. One of the shareholders for 500 Realty works for Marchex in Seattle and everyday I hear from him stating the entire website must be changed. Word-capture, Google, Yahoo, etc. I’m truly inept about. We start the “college” campaign in 2 weeks. Maybe I will pull the plug on it. However, I like the website. Its simple. I wanted it like that! The Red Fin Site and MLS 4 Owners site is too difficult to navigate in my opinion. I just wanted a few buttons. Buyer…Seller…..Search… …I think we will change the website….GULP….But, I truly do like it… Even the 450.00 lady who walks out for 30 seconds. Some hate her others love her.

  It seems the more tech oriented the person is the more they hate our site. Many love it but computer oriented people can’t stand it.

  Thanks for the input. Send me an email and I will send you 2 shirt’s. Our controversial ones are SOLD OUT. I will send you the ones I sent Tim and many others from this website. They are very form-fitting and you will look far more handsome wearing it then any other shirt in your collection.

  **Todays a big day. I attend the Quadrant Open House in Tacoma. 400 People on the waiting List for the Gig Harbor development. I go with 3 different Buyers. I have never been to one of their events and I hope the food is good. You can be assured I will be there with a few hundred fliers in hand and 500 Realty Shirts galore. **

  Ray Pepper
  http://www.500Realty.net

• 50 AndyMiami // May 31, 2008 at 6:47 am

  Rentersarelosers

  No recession, continued increases in real estate with Seattle leading the country…check out the link which totally agrees with you

  http://www.economist.com/displayStory.cfm?story_id=11465476

• 51 Ray Pepper // May 31, 2008 at 7:05 am

  WOW, ANDY MIAMI !!

  I can see somebody passing out literature on this Economist Press release at the Quadrant Event. It would make everyone go home. If they have a home!

• 52 AndyMiami // May 31, 2008 at 7:26 am

  Ray Pepper

  Pretty sobering chart…but of course Seattle will not suffer one bit…we are just so perfectly immune..just like there is no crime, no unemployment, no foreclosures..we live in a beautiful BUBBLE…we are so lucky

• 53 george // May 31, 2008 at 7:32 am

  The fact that the CEO of ZipRealty is predicting a crash in Seattle is very interesting, even if his reasoning isn’t new or based on an innovative graph.

  My only question is when is it going to drop 20 percent plus? Any thoughts on what sounds like his prediction of 6 to 9 months from now? If we reach a 20 percent plus drop by Feb. 2009, will you be surprised?

  The reasons Seattle is likely to crash 20 percent plus are simple. Simple enough for most potential buyers and sellers to understand at this point.

• 54 [troll] // May 31, 2008 at 7:34 am

  ndyMm,

  rlly ddn’t wnt t g hr, bt hr r my thghts.
  W r n n lctn yr. Glm nd Dm s th Lbrl mntr, nlss thy gt lctd ftr whch ll wll b pchy. Th Md s cprtng wth ths mntr s t slls nwspprs.

  f th cnmy ws trly n sch bd shp t wld b rflctd n th stck mrkt. W r lss thn 10% ff r ll tm hghs n th brd S∓P 500. f th cnmy s rlly hdd fr rcssn/dprssn dn’t y thnk th bg tm nvstrs wld b pllng t n drvs? ftr ll, th mrkts lk hd rghly 6-9 mnths. Frm wht s ths slwdwn wll b (s) shrt nd shllw.

• 55 Jonny // May 31, 2008 at 7:54 am

  “The US economy is not in bad shape, we are not headed into a recession or depression.”

  Just want to make sure I can quote you on this.

• 56 John // May 31, 2008 at 8:43 am

  Things are not peachy now. A middle class family with 2 cars and 3 kids will have to cut back or else. Food cost, gas price, declining home price? Truckers aren’t happy with $4 gas. I wonder what they will do when it hits $5. Warren Buffett is predicting a long recession but nah, he is just a fear monger.

• 57 AndyMiami // May 31, 2008 at 8:59 am

  Rentersarelosers

  You are an imbecile. The S & P 500 when measured against other indexes like Euro EFTs, Gold EFTs has been the worst performer. You need to look at the real return adjusted for inflation. DOW just raised its prices 20% for all its products.

  If the FED had not backed the Bears Stearns acquisition, the markets would have suffered systematic collapse. The threat is still there despite the FED’s efforts. Look at credit spreads and in particular LIBOR. Take a look at what mortgage rates are doing…

  You are SO Seattle…take a trip to Detroit or Boston, or Miami…then you’re IQ may return to normal

• 58 johnsgonefishin // May 31, 2008 at 9:15 am

  Rentersarelosers,
  The economy is not in bad shape? Seattle went through a “mild bubble”. Do you understand what bubble means. By definition it is not mild. You could say Seattle had a small correction, or decline but “mild bubble” is an oxymoron. Even you admit its a bubble, and the bubble just burst.
  People who post here are not all renters, some of us own right now or have owned. It is a bad time to own in the Seattle area if you look at property as an investment. If you look at it the right way, as a home for your family it makes sense to own. You personally would be better served in selling any property you have and using the money to fund your education. That is, if you are not upside down which is likely based on the frustration of your posts. Perhaps a community college would be a great start for you as alot of times they can help you complete your GED and have classes on basic economics and investing.

• 59 Keith // May 31, 2008 at 9:17 am

  >> The Economist story

  Yes, the rate of change is higher than during the Depression, but I attribute that to the increased information flow we have available today. EVERYTHING happens quicker than it did 80 years ago. Markets spike and crash much more rapidly. Historically, recessions lasted years - now they are over in months.

  >> The economy is not in bad shape

  I follow Bill Conerly’s “Businomics” blog - even bought and read his book - and I think Bill makes a strong case for this as well.

  >> Seattle vs. NV

  I’ve made this point before, but Seattle has had - and will likely continue to have - growth in the kind of jobs that pay the salaries (and options, and bonuses) that support $1mm housing. Nevada, absent the gaming and entertainment industries (where the high incomes are highly skewed) is basically a low-paid service sector. Phoenix…well, I think we can all see that there’s nothing fundamentally behind their economy.

  >> frustrated blog readers

  I see a couple different manifestations of frustration here. The first is over local market conditions which are either depressed too much / not enough depending on the individual’s POV - with no in-between. Face it, everyone here is pulling for prices to decline more (most likely renters) or increase (homeowners). Mindless cheering for either outcome doesn’t really help anyone, but relevant insights on any aspect of this situation might help those who listen to better predict the future.

  The other form of frustration I see arrises from an inability to convince other blog readers that a particular POV is the most correct. Frankly, I don’t see any value in trying to convince someone to switch their positions.

• 60 Matthew // May 31, 2008 at 9:21 am

  The economy is great as long as you don’t have to fill your car with gas or go grocery shopping…..

  Does RAL work for CNBS or something? Give this guy a pair of pom-poms!

• 61 Lionel // May 31, 2008 at 9:25 am

  “The US economy is not in bad shape, we are not headed into a recession or depression. ”

  Hmmm, who to believe, RAL or Warren Buffet, who thinks the recession will be long and deep? Tough call.

• 62 AndyMiami // May 31, 2008 at 9:33 am

  Keith // May 31, 2008 at 9:17 am

  >> The Economist story

  Yes, the rate of change is higher than during the Depression, but I attribute that to the increased information flow we have available today. EVERYTHING happens quicker than it did 80 years ago. Markets spike and crash much more rapidly. Historically, recessions lasted years - now they are over in months.

  Information flow certainly accelerates movements of capital. Henry Kissinger was quoted this month..

  “For speculative capital, nimbleness is the essential attribute. Rushing in when it sees an opportunity and heading for the exit at the first sign of trouble, speculative capital has too often turned upswings into bubbles and downward cycles into crises”

  Not bad for an old time conservative. The current downward pressure on house prices and how fast they have come down are a result of CREDIT BUBBLE BURST. The unprecedented increase in home prices, including Seattle, was fueled by easy credit - stated income loans with teaser rates. Traditional credit analysis was simply thrown out the window. Now, the pendulum has moved back to traditional lending standards which eliminates 1/3 of potential buyers.

  Go to RealtyTrac and check out the rapid increase in Seattle foreclosures. We are not California or Florida, but when I see so many homes in Bellevue in some stage of foreclosure, then even those high paying jobs cannot stop the continuous drop in home values.

• 63 [troll] // May 31, 2008 at 10:11 am

  Hmmm, wh t blv, RL r Wrrn Bfft, wh thnks th rcssn wll b lng nd dp? Tgh cll.
  …………………………..

  Whl Bfft tlks rcssn h s stll byng.
  Jst tk stk n Krft.
  f t’s gnn b lng nd dp why dsn’t h wt fr bttr dl?
  t’s sy fr hm t sy h ws wrng bt th rcssn whl hs shrhldrs r prftng frm hs qstns.
  ntrstng, n?

• 64 [troll] // May 31, 2008 at 10:26 am

  ntrstng st. Wht th Bg Bys r byng. vn Grg Srs byng p S qts! Yh, thy tlk rcssn, y dmp, thy by!

  < hrf="http://www.grfcs.cm/StckBy.php?GrNm=Grg+Srs" rl="nfllw">http://www.grfcs.cm/StckBy.php?GrNm=Grg+Srs

  Chck t Bffts nd thr’s bys s wll.

• 65 alex // May 31, 2008 at 10:40 am

  Yesterday, I mentioned about the “500k limit” being broken, with this 2200sqft house selling at 475k:
  http://www.johnlscott.com/propertydetail.aspx?GroupID=66968273&ListingID=31920260

  And today, another house, identical to the one above, and just 1 block away, has come on the market for 460k:
  http://www.johnlscott.com/propertydetail.aspx?GroupID=66997722&ListingID=31956895

  Take that, Rentersarelosers!! :)

  And Ray, the only thing better than today’s Gems… is next month’s Gems!! :)

• 66 economist // May 31, 2008 at 11:00 am

  Just took a stake in Kraft.
  If it’s gonna be long and deep why doesn’t he wait for a better deal?

  Ever hear of “inferior goods”?

  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kraft_Dinner

• 67 alex // May 31, 2008 at 11:15 am

  Yesterday, I posted about a 2200sqft Eastside house that came up for 475k, showing that as a sign that the “500k limit” is broken.

  Today, an identical house in the same neighborhood came up for 460k!! Now that’s some nice action - spread the news!

• 68 Lionel // May 31, 2008 at 11:18 am

  “Just took a stake in Kraft.”

  Hard to imagine commodity prices rising. He’s just being smart, targeting a company that produces cheap food when grocery prices are rising rapidly. I don’t see him buying real estate.

• 69 LUC // May 31, 2008 at 11:22 am

  RAL,

  Step back and look at what you just wrote. Kraft is a food and beverage company. There is currently inflationary pressure on food prices. That’s why Buffet is a smart investor. All stocks don’t react the same way during a recession, especially stocks that are not subject to discretionary spending.

• 70 economist // May 31, 2008 at 11:24 am

  While Buffet talks recession he is still buying.
  Just took a stake in Kraft.

  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kraft_Dinner

  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inferior_good

• 71 SLU_Renter // May 31, 2008 at 11:26 am

  57 & 58 I agree with your assessment. I’m not planning on buying for at least 1 more year. My wife wants something badly so we can start a family. We moved over here from the east coast, and own three properties, pre-bubble (currently being rented). So, yes we can afford to buy something but why bother. (We can easily put down a $200K down payment by cashing out some stock.) But we’d lose it in buying a house so I’d rather keep it diversified in the stock market, Asia, ,Latin America (Brazil), Europe, and some U.S. although I am skeptical of the current run. I think after the elections we’re going to be headed back down as people start to realize things aren’t going to be as rosy even after a newly elected president and it will be hard for us to change course.

  Take a look at this chart. Another 1000lb gorilla is going hit the housing market in 2010-2011, when the options adjustable rate and Alt-a resets. It’ll be like the 1-2 punch. The 1st punch, is the subprime mess, which may have staggered the economy and lowered housing and we may have survived it (still too soon to tell), but the 2nd punch may put the U.S. econ and housing on the floor.

  Both my wife walk downtown to work. We love it. Not only is it healthy to walk 1- 1.5 miles in one direction a day. But, we fill up our gas tanks every 4-5 weeks.

  http://photobucket.com/albums/f53/midtowng/optionarm.gif

• 72 LUC // May 31, 2008 at 11:27 am

  RAL,

  Step back and look at what you just wrote. Kraft is a food and beverage company. There is currently inflationary pressure on food prices. All stocks don’t react the same way during a recession, especially stocks that not subject to discretionary spending. That’s why Buffet is a smart investor.

• 73 whats my name // May 31, 2008 at 11:32 am

  “This is exactly what we saw in the rest of the country six to nine months ago. ”

  Really? Is that what we saw in SD six to nine months ago? In Miami? In NYC? In Charlotte? Well, OK Pat Lashinsky. I know the analytic minds on SB wouldn’t miss a sweeping and gross misstatement of the facts from a Realty executive in the MSM just because the tune was the right one.

  Tim, it’s time to adjust the offset period in your graph.

• 74 thelongwait // May 31, 2008 at 11:59 am

  alex wrote:

  Yesterday, I posted about a 2200sqft Eastside house that came up for 475k, showing that as a sign that the “500k limit” is broken.

  Today, an identical house in the same neighborhood came up for 460k!! Now that’s some nice action - spread the news!

  dude, that house is about the same commute distance as from Renton. It’s on Eastside alright.

• 75 whats my name // May 31, 2008 at 12:01 pm

  Great chart SLU-Renter. You will notice more resets in 2008 than in 2007, yet we hear much less about it . That is because in 2007 indexes had moved higher resulting in payment increases. In 2008 the indexes are lower, resulting in payment decreases. Who knows where they will be in 2010.

• 76 LUC // May 31, 2008 at 12:18 pm

  Interesting site. What the Big Boys are buying. Even George Soros buying up US equities! Yeah, they talk recession, you dump, they buy!

  http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?GuruName=George+Soros

  Check out Buffets and other’s buys as well.
  ______________________________________________________________

  One company is Portuguese, Foster Wheeler is international, the telecom listed is Russian, one is a Canadian oil and gas company and I do see a discount retailer (Walmart). Do your research before posting!!!

• 77 SLU_Renter // May 31, 2008 at 2:09 pm

  Whats my name, thanks. Yeah, we (my wife and I) aren’t anti-owning a home. But, the chart is pretty scary because it looks like another wave may hit in ~2 years. (No one knows what the future will hold, but being patient never hurt.) There is a lot to be said about having your own place, especially when you go from owning to renting, and as both of us get older we may take the plunge because we really want to have kids before it is too late (early - mid 30s).

  We are keeping our eyes and ears open as we are still discovering all the neighborhoods around Seattle. West Seattle is a place we really like. We are not looking to catch the bottom, but at the same time we don’t want to put down a huge down payment that took years of hard work to earn only to see it evaporate.

  Also, I just can’t see myself locking up a huge chunk of money that is not very liquid during uncertain times. My ideal mortgage would be $2000 or less with PITI which would be ~350K house + 20% down. I don’t think people should be paying more than 20% of their AGI on homes. Especially if a spouse loses their job because of a down turn in the economy, the other can take care of the payments. But in this current Seattle market that is pretty unrealistic, so we are waiting on the sidelines as it is cheaper to rent than to own.

  It will also be very interesting to see what happens as the 10year note starts moving up as I understand that the 30 year fixed is based off of that. Will that mean less buyers? or will that mean people will be able to afford less house since more money goes towards interest than principal? The chart below shows that we could potentially see another 1/2 point increase on the 30year which means a move from the current 6.02% rate to 6.52%. This is all speculative of course but I think the 30 year fixed rate is going to rise even more as we are and have been at historic lows.

  http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?chart=TNX,uuh,awaclyyaypb40!f][vc60][iue6,12,9!lj[$spx]]

• 78 SLU_Renter // May 31, 2008 at 2:21 pm

  LUC, very true. During times of uncertainty, smart investors turn to defensive positions by buying utilities, food and consumer staples. It is strange that tobacco, alcohol and drugs (prescription that is) also does well. But I guess when people are depressed or stressed they turn to their vices more often then not. I doubt smart investors such as Warrern Buffet, Soros, etc are buying up the the housing index ($HGX) through ETFs or Mutual Funds nor would t hey be buying home builders either.

• 79 denismurf // May 31, 2008 at 3:20 pm

  Here’s an op ed on the housing market from the weekend Financial Times. It makes a pretty reasonable case that price trends in housing, once established, will stay that way for a long time. Anybody else have a comment on it? http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d0dccfa2-2e6e-11dd-ab55-000077b07658.html?nclick_check=1

• 80 alex // May 31, 2008 at 3:37 pm

  [thelongwait]
  dude, that house is about the same commute distance as from Renton. It’s on Eastside alright.
  ===========

  There’s no comparing Woodinville with Renton - but that’s not the point. Compare those two houses with similar houses around them for sale, and notice how they are clearly avid sellers driving the market down, where it belongs.

• 81 rose-colored-coolaid // May 31, 2008 at 3:56 pm

  #27 Rentersarelosers,
  I respect the fact you hold much different opinions than the majority of the posters on this site, and I am glad we have some “contrarians” who post here. I know this is an invalid rebuttal to the many positions you espouse. I also recognize that what I am about to do is an argumentative fallacy, but here goes anyways.

  As far as I can tell, you sir are mostly wrong and entirely an ass.

  #59 Keith

  I see a couple different manifestations of frustration here. The first is over local market conditions which are either depressed too much / not enough depending on the individual’s POV - with no in-between. Face it, everyone here is pulling for prices to decline more (most likely renters) or increase (homeowners).

  Surprisingly, this is not so. Many people on this site have sat at the sidelines, saved up six-figure down payments, and are eager and ready to dive in when the time is right. I, for example, could jump into a $500k home tomorrow if it suited me. The problem is that I am 100% certain prices will be lower tomorrow and the next day and the day after that. I’ve worked hard for that money and don’t want to flush it down the drain. Am I rooting for falling prices? Sure, I’d like to get more home for my money. But overall I can get a home I’d be happy with at todays prices, I’m just waiting for some signs that the most catastrophic price declines are behind us. Frankly, we aren’t there yet.

  If this sounds like cheerleading, I apologize. Still, here’s one vote that wouldn’t mind price stabilization.

  ————————————————————————
  There has been some debate whether or not this article is even news worthy. It seems to me that you certainly cannot use it to predict the future. However, it is noteworthy and probably newsworthy that someone with detailed information in many markets is predicting that Seattle is only months away from a freefall. Further, it is significant that his assessment is based on the same sales/inventory numbers that Tim has focused attention on at this site, and which many MSM outlets have largely ignored.

  Face it, Tim’s a person like any other. A lot of his research and predictions are turning out to be remarkably accurate. Give him a break, and let him bask in this just a little bit.

• 82 Alan // May 31, 2008 at 4:33 pm

  Let’s consider a hypothetical buyer. He is married with a child, earns $100k a year, and has saved $100k that he is willing and able to put as a down payment on a house. Also he works at the main Microsoft campus in Redmond. He would prefer to have a short commute.

  RAL, what do you suggest he buy today?

• 83 [troll] // May 31, 2008 at 6:26 pm

  80 rs-clrd-cld // My 31, 2008 t 3:56 pm

  #27 Rntrsrlsrs,
  rspct th fct y hld mch dffrnt pnns thn th mjrty f th pstrs n ths st, nd m gld w hv sm “cntrrns” wh pst hr. knw ths s n nvld rbttl t th mny pstns y sps. ls rcgnz tht wht m bt t d s n rgmnttv fllcy, bt hr gs nywys.

  s fr s cn tll, y sr r mstly wrng nd ntrly n ss.
  …………………

  Rs clrd Cld, m n vry gd cmpny hr.
  …………………..

  81 ln // My 31, 2008 t 4:33 pm

  Lt’s cnsdr hypthtcl byr. H s mrrd wth chld, rns $100k yr, nd hs svd $100k tht h s wllng nd bl t pt s dwn pymnt n hs. ls h wrks t th mn Mcrsft cmps n Rdmnd. H wld prfr t hv shrt cmmt.

  RL, wht d y sggst h by tdy?
  ………………………….

  dn’t knw th rl stt mrkt t ll n Rdmnd, nd hvn’t rntd n bt 28 yrs, dn’t vn cnsdr tht s n ptn fr myslf.
  f rntng nc 3 br hm mght cst $2 k/mnth sms t m h wld b bttr ff byng. s fr s ffrdblty, vryn hs dffrnt spndng pttrns nd prrts, s dffclt t gg bt wld ssm 400k hm wld nt b t f th qstn.

• 84 softwarengineer // May 31, 2008 at 7:53 pm

  SLU_Rentor

  Here’s some great financial advice from SWE:

  Sell those foreign stocks, see the International (I & S) stock averages, parenthesis numbers are negative losses:

  http://www.tsp.gov/rates/returns-tsp.html

  Take your stock money out and pay off any principle owed on your rentals, NOW. The 6% or so interest ya pay for principle is really like 8-9% investment interest before taxes.

  I don’t see stocks going up for years. I’m paying off a real estate principle too, I kept it to offset my standard deduction for deducting property tax and charities; its a joke with 3% CDs now, let alone negative international stocks. The Buffets know when and what to buy, us little guys will be flattened, time to GET OUT OF DEBT fast!

  You might want to move out of the city, even if you have to drive a bit. Get close to a wholesale grocer like WINCO or Costco, the money saved on food there is like 30% savings over major grocery stores….there’s no wholesalers in downtown Seattle and Fred Meyer is high priced like Safeway too. [even with a few sales items thrown in the cart] Food is much worse than gas in price per month and tied directly to gasoline increases too, even just feeding you and your wife, especially if you like exotics [fresh fruits and vegetables].

• 85 faster // May 31, 2008 at 8:25 pm

  >You might want to move out of the city, even if you have to drive a bit. Get close to a wholesale grocer like WINCO or
  >Costco, the money saved on food there is like 30% savings over major grocery stores….there’s no wholesalers in
  >dow