I like having millionaires around me makes for a better place to live and more desireable. The fact that someone paid $1 million plus to live on a street right next to mine makes me feel good about my purchase, it may not mean my house is worth the same amount but shows me the kind of people that i am around and that is important when determining a place to live and call home.

Real Estate here is really down to the neighborhood, if someone is cheering because prices in Kenmore are down…do i really care? Prices in outlying areas will fall more than mine. WIll Magnolia fall..yes i say 12 – 15% tops but we are a long way from there. There is no point for me to read about pierce county, kenmore, bothell, lynwood. The things are drastically different. If you wait 3 years and get into home there for sub $400k more power to you.

Real Estate is local down to the neighborhood and yes even streets in some cases.

Good luck cheerleading guys, wasted energy to me since you wont be buying anyway when you need to put 20% down on a sub $400k home…. most still and cant qualify with the new guidelines. Not all.. most.

lmfao

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Any questions??

Any questions?

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Mkl,

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Seattle does not have more millionaires than any others city. You are pulling stats out of your ass. The only studies I have seen that show millionaires per area, rank them by county, not city. And the last one I saw had LA County as #1 and Orange County is #3, guess what, San Diego County is #5.

Check it out… http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2007/pf/0704/gallery.Millionaire_Counties/index.html

Looks like it hurts in SD, Montana, etc. There is also a graph on median income.

“The Varying Impact of Gas Prices

Gas prices are high throughout the country, but how hard they hit individual families depends on income levels, which vary widely.”

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2008/06/09/business/20080609_GAS_GRAPHIC.html?#tab1

You are using Watts as your example? You are too funny.

Seattle is going to degrade to the likes of Beirut right? Why would you even rent here? Maybe it would be best to go else where… after all you don’t want to be here for Seattle’s Apocalypse do you?

With the risk of sounding like a Pink Pony, Seattle has the highest concentration of millionaires in the United States, we have several globally diversified companies which provide thousands of high paying white collar jobs, and like it or not we are a technology hub. I don’t see us degrading to the likes of Watts or Detroit. Let’s face it, Detroit’s economy was driven by blue collar factory workers who relied on 3 companies that did nothing to secure their future as they pandered to oil companies and an energy policy that was bound to strangle America.

California’s rate of subprime lending is twice that of Washington’s mortgages in a market where the median home price is almost twice our own.

My point, which you completely missed, is that due to skyrocketing fuel costs people will likely try to reduce them by renting or purchasing home closer to their jobs. They will settle for less and not want to pay for the high costs of heating big homes, in far out places, where they are forced to drive everywhere for basic services.

EconE how would $5, $6, or $10/gallon prices effect your choice on where to live? We are at $4 now and people are crying about it. Easy oil is our past. I hope your bike is greased and ready to go.

With a name like EconE you think you would have a more “global economic perspective” and a better mouth.

That’s gotta be one of the larger bull$hit marketing pitches out there. I saw it play out in Los Angeles for many areas that are now trying to unload foreclosures at half price. There was even an article in the LA real estate ad mag…I mean…the LA Times about the “gentrification” of Watts, and that the median price for the area was approaching 500k. The essence of the article was “get in before Watts turns unto a latte sipping luxury enclave before you get priced out forever”. How do you think the cute couple that was portrayed in the article feel about their purchase now?

Some people are gonna have to learn the hard way…there is such a thing as “reverse gentrification” and it doesn’t just apply to places like Detroit.

Instead of going out and buying some gold (which is easy to buy and sell) I’ll go buy some RE.

Jon you should just go long SRS (Ultrashort RE) it was up 4 percent today.

Perhaps we should to talk to LUC about her reading comprehension.

Bad neighborhoods will eventually transition to nicer neighborhoods. Look at Rainier Beach. It has a ways to go, but it will transform.

People will do with and expect less. Just ask the people of New York City where crappy basement apartments rent for thousands of dollars and you can rent floor space in a kitchen for $600 (my friend does). It is not uncommon for 8 people to rent a 2 bedroom apartment. Granted, Seattle is not even close to being there, but you cannot deny that some will migrate closer in with the expectation of less. It might not be the Baby Boomers, but generation Y and Z already show signs of this.

I have seen the same process in Boston where the need to live closer to the city transformed neighborhoods that we as children were appalled at the idea of living in. The projects and slums of old are now the newest and best neighborhoods to be in.

What makes you think that gas prices will not cripple people in the short term, if not permanently and change their mindset about what is acceptable living? We are just seeing the beginning of this process. People expectations will change. Having to heat a 2500 sqft. house on oil, natural gas, or electricity will be costly. Then having to jump in your car to go everywhere on top of having to go to work will completely cripple people ability to afford the fuel costs associated with living in McMansions in the burbs.

Emerging economies demand for oil will offset technological innovation, our ability to source and develop new oil, not to mention that our refining capacity is just not there. This is just the beginning of a painful process which I hope will lead us off of foreign oil. Renewable energies currently lack the technology and infrastructure to come on line any time quickly. Congress and the American Automotive industry has further exacerbated this by their refusal to produce more efficient automobiles. GM and Ford are getting what they deserve. Their shortsightedness or unwillingness to see what was ahead has put nails in their coffins. I guess they should not have killed the electric car after all.

What coutless facts and articles have you provided? You have provided no numbers to support your assumptions or facts.

Is is not common sense that the reason the freeways are packed before 9 am going to Seattle is because people are going to work? The outbound lanes are packed in the afternoon because they are leaving from work. The transportation department has spent millions of dollars and designed the freeway systems to accommodate traffic to and from Seattle. Why do you think that is? I didn’t think I had to go to the Washington Department of Transportation to dig up facts about the painfully obvious.

Whats facts do you have to offer? I have yet to see you put forth anything with any of our debates other than baseless points and unidimensional pot shots.

You talk about your Aunt and Uncle the school teachers, who owned rental property, and made a killing off of CD in the 80’s and how they were not wealthy. Yeah the school teachers with rental property… that is common. You only proved my original point.

You talk about how your Real Estate Agent says the condo market is dead, yet the YOY prices is up 4.1%. King, Pierce, and Snohomish counties have all seen increase in condo prices. Yet you have a real estate agent who is employed in a market that is dead. Why do you even have a real estate agent if the market is so bad???? Why hasn’t your real estate agent found another job?

You talk about the 1 Townhouse out of 10 that has not sold on the corner of Thorndyke and Boston, yet they all sold for $400/sqft. 1 unsold townhouse is not exactly a sign of project failure.

You talk about how there is no construction on Thorndyke, yet there are 6 nearly complete buildings on the east side of the street, 3 adjacent house lots all fenced off and ready to be demolished, and an apartment conversion on the west side of the street along with the newly constructed town homes I mentioned above. Yet you tell me that there is no new construction going on.

You talk about jobs in Redmond as a rebuttal to the jobs based in Seattle.

How about you hold yourself to the same high standards you hold me. I have provided you with countless facts and articles and all you can muster up is singular points, most of which are baseless facts… actually I think I am insulting the word “facts”. We should call them “Butt-isms” because it seems that is where you are pulling all of your information from.

Please do me a favor when you can amass more that just one point for any topic and back it up, them make a comment. Otherwise you are just highlighting your lack of “observation”.

So you are basing it on observation alone? Also, so all the homes in the suburbs are large and only heated by oil? Mass transits doesn’t just mean transportation to the Seattle. It would also include transportation to Redmond, Bellevue and other areas surrounding Seattle.

What makes you think that people can afford the skyrocketing gas prices for their cars, heating their large suburban homes, and gas’ pervasive costs. In 2005 the Department of Energy predicted that the average price of oil in 2030 would be $100/barrel. OOPS, they were wrong. The automotive industry is far behind the curve.

I have to say I love Seattle City Light. My first bill ever was $24. It still brings a tear to my eye. My highest bill ever was $74/month.

Here is an interesting article. Mass transits has the most ridership since 1957. IBM conducted a survey where 66% of drivers said they would seek alternative modes of transportation if gas got above $5.00 per barrel.

http://money.cnn.com/2008/06/11/news/mass_transit/index.htm?cnn=yes

I do not predict that people will sell their homes immediately to hedge against gas prices. I do believe that when making buying decisions that proximity to work and public transportation will be a major consideration if not an influencing factor.

What data do you have stating more people work in Seattle than live in Seattle? If that is true, what % of those working in Seattle could afford home prices or rents in Seattle?

In the same breath you should take a look in the mirror. You would have amateur or first time home buyers think that price alone is the only consideration. I have provided dozens of strategies and considerations that home buyers must think about before getting in to a home. You provide one. BUY LOW.

If anything new home buyers will walk away knowing they need to look at specific neighborhoods. They need to do a tremendous amount of homework. They need to buy for the long-term. They need to consider interest rates. They need to consider future trends. They need to have back up plans (renting, roommates, etc.). They can leverage sweat equity.

Buying at a low price in a neighborhood that could further decline is not going to be helpful.

You should consider how your unidimensional approach could crush a new home buyer.

Back to 224. Sorry, I had to get some stuff done.

You forgot the other three directions, North, South, and West. I think people will gradually migrate closer to their jobs. I don’t think they will sell right now for gas prices. I think renters, new time buyers, some people being crippled by gas prices, and people who actually want to live in the city will eventually migrate over time. They may be renters or buyers.

The suburbs have much bigger houses, which often cost more to heat. My father is looking at $5,000/year to pay for home heating oil. In addition, everything you do requires more gas. Including driving to the grocery store, restaurants, malls, friends houses etc.

More people work in Seattle than live in Seattle.

If builders are better at dropping their prices fast, then why is there more MOS out there than in city? For some reason people prefer to live close to their jobs, and they seem willing to ignore lower priced houses in order to do that.

So my goal is to first come up with a satisfactory explanation of why we are seeing the results that we currently are seeing, which is flat and even increasing prices in Seattle city and falling elsewhere. A claim that Seattle will drop 35%, when it isn’t dropping now and the credit bust is winding down is not persuasive. Observing that inflation is on the horizon and housing is an inflation hedge makes good sense to me.

Do you think you and many of the others here will still have that job if prices do drop even 40 percent.

Mikal is trying to make the point that our economy is based on a constant RE appreciation rate of 20% per year so that everyone can use their house as an ATM to purchase flatscreen TVs, Hummers (plus gas), mobile phones, etc. etc.

Maybe we “bubbleheads” are the only ones that can see this is not a sustainable economy, and perhaps the ONLY way we’ll all keep our jobs is if house prices drop substantially and the economy returns to sanity where people actually WORK to make money instead of sitting around and waiting for the greater fool to come along and drive prices up in their neighborhood so they can make a withdrawal from the Bank of Home.

Why would people lose their jobs if their houses fell 40% in value? What difference would that make to their jobs at all? The agents and finance people associated with RE are going to lose them if we drop 5% or 50%, so I am not sure what your point is. Japanese real estate fell 90% and they did not have some sudden epic wave of unemployment. That is probably because asset value declines do not cause unemployment except for a select few.

My job is 100 percent bulletproof. I am in no danger of losing my job no matter how bad the economy gets. In fact, when times get rough my job actually has more work.

Just wanted to point that out.

I give you some credit at least you agree that buying right now is not a good idea. Now only if we could get RAL to wake up smell the coffee.

What was did Robert Duvall’s character say in Apocalypse Now — I love the smell of depreciation in the morning — something like that anyway.

RAL one of these days you will wake up and notice — HOUSE PRICES ARE FALLING. You can rant and rant but like any market things go up and they go down. I bet when the NASDAQ was at 5000 you were one of the people saying it would continue its rise and when people suggested otherwise you blew that smoke of how the economy was now a new paradigm and nay sayers just didn’t understand. Ouch, Zillow says you just lost another $5K of value. Oh, thats right people only quote Zillow when it says there houses are appreciation.

The areas outside of King County are not falling due to gas prices, they are falling because they are more overbuilt than any other area, and have a higher percentage of exotic loans.

As for the inventory chart you linked to, take one look at that chart and it shows just how ridiculous the notion that Seattle is not facing an extreme housing situation. Inventory is higher than it has ever been and the absorption rate is near all time lows. In fact the absorption rate would have to double just to equal 2003 levels.

Riverside and similar areas inventory peaked long ago, and prices are still falling (although it is slowing down), because there is no floor until those areas become cheap enough to attract retirees or new businesses. But here, the inventory peak I think will be enough of a signal that the price bottom is at hand to end the deflationary expectation.

The price in the city has been steady for a few months according to MLS, and the MOS there is not very high. CSI is falling because that is older data, and CSI is focused on prices of existing homes rather than the prices that first time buyers see.

It may be that at this time the rest of King county outside of Seattle is falling because of gas prices and not just because of the credit market. Once the differential matches the extra cost of commuting, then that inventory will clear also.

Do you think that the peak for inventory for 2008 is May?

don’t get your panties all in a bunch. i think it’s obvious that you’re just trying really hard to argue your point because you’re so heavily invested and you’re nervous about it. believe me, when the time comes, i’ll be ready to buy your house, but i won’t because your neighbor will probably offer me a cheaper price.