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Poll: How far will Seattle’s Case-Shiller HPI fall from the July ‘07 peak?

Posted by The Tim on June 15th, 2008 at 12:05 AM · 12 Comments

Please vote in this poll using the sidebar.

How far will Seattle's Case-Shiller HPI fall from the July '07 peak?

  • 7.3% (March was the bottom) (1%, 3 Votes)
  • >7.3% - <10% (3%, 8 Votes)
  • >10% - <15% (12%, 28 Votes)
  • >15% - <20% (24%, 58 Votes)
  • >20% - <30% (33%, 80 Votes)
  • >30% - <40% (17%, 42 Votes)
  • More than 40% (9%, 22 Votes)

Total Voters: 241


This poll will be active and displayed on the sidebar through 06.21.2008.

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12 responses so far ↓

  • 1 femto's avatar femto // Jun 15, 2008 at 11:29 pm

    by when? I expect several bumpy bottoms, with the lowest as far out as 2010/11.

  • 2 what goes up comes down's avatar what goes up comes down // Jun 16, 2008 at 3:19 am

    off topic, but does anyone know how I can find out the sale price of the house at the following address:

    8233 41st Ave NE
    Seattle, WA 98115

    it was a flip that sat for a long time and finally went STI on redfin but now I can not find the final sale on redfin and when I looked on the King County website it states sales records are only available per request in person and not via the web.

    Thanks

  • 3 Garth's avatar Garth // Jun 16, 2008 at 7:19 am

    what goes up,

    There are long contingencies on some sales now, so it can take a while for the sales numbers to appear on zillow or redfin.

  • 4 SeattleMoose's avatar SeattleMoose // Jun 16, 2008 at 7:48 am

    WGUCD….over at Zillow it lists for 689K while the Zestimate is 563K.

    Last sale was 10/31/2007 for $426K

    Based on a 1998 sales price of 224K my “Moostimate” is 331K based on a “normal” appreciation of 4%/year over the last 10 years. Of course, any improvements made during this time would have be tacked on as well.

  • 5 softwarengineer's avatar softwarengineer // Jun 16, 2008 at 8:31 am

    SHOULD BE A 5TH CHOICE: GREATER THAN 20%

  • 6 Scotsman's avatar Scotsman // Jun 16, 2008 at 5:41 pm

    Software- try using the scroll bar. You will find, grasshopper, that which you seek….

  • 7 faster's avatar faster // Jun 16, 2008 at 9:52 pm

    You can’t find the sale price until it’s recorded by King County.

    You need the parcel number, which you can find at Zilliow under the Home Info:
    0442000075

    And you need the King County Parcel Viewer which is here:
    http://www5.metrokc.gov/parcelviewer/Viewer/KingCounty/Viewer.asp?App=Parcels&SearchFor=Pstart

    Plug that parcel number into the website, and eventually you’ll see the price it sold for.

  • 8 B&W Nikes's avatar B&W Nikes // Jun 20, 2008 at 2:20 pm

    I voted without stopping to consider what was meant by Seattle. The entire area between Bitterlake and Lake City down to Westwood and Rainier Beach? Before this spring I would have said 30%, with “Americas Oil Crisis” in full swing I think 10-20% at most. Anyone else think that equalizing influences of gas prices and disruptive transportation projects are leaning rickity against over-valuation and overbuilding? I know this is Seattle Bubble, but also I wonder what the group’s prognosis is for the Eastside or Southend? Those areas will likely feel the descent more acutely.

  • 9 The Tim's avatar The Tim // Jun 20, 2008 at 2:21 pm

    B&W, the Case-Shiller “Seattle” index includes the entirety of King, Pierce, and Snohomish counties.

  • 10 B&W Nikes's avatar B&W Nikes // Jun 20, 2008 at 2:32 pm

    aahh… the CSSI then consider the vote changed. Definitely average of >20<30. Wasn’t sure if we were centering or regioneering. Something tells me they did not check the soundness of the tiles for possible re-entry burn up on this mission.

  • 11 patient's avatar patient // Jun 20, 2008 at 2:33 pm

    The Tim, how about a half year follow up on how the more official predictors are doing so far on their predictions from the prediciton thread earlier this year? Official as the posters here (yourself & dj ) I don’t think s-crow made one and predicitons from journalists etc. I think Steve Tytler mentioned that he is on track.

  • 12 patient's avatar patient // Jun 20, 2008 at 2:34 pm

    I think predicitons were done on both medain and C/S so it might be more interresting to wait until the June C/S numbers are released at the end of August.

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