I don’t totally agree…Columbia City did become way overpriced and they’ve built a lot o,f crappy townhomes,but downtown Burien is continuing to see improvements and is really not that far from downtown Seattle, and Skyway? Never saw the kind of appreciation that other neighborhoods saw, and hasn’t been thought of asa nice or safe neighborhood for a long time, so I’m actually optimistic about the ‘hood…The Skyway area is also not far from downtown and has the least expensive houses within a 20 minute drive to downtown Seattle.

But…as far as losing money on real estate investments and not bragging about it? That’s the same as the stock market, and I’ve lost money on both, but have made much more than I’ve lost. I bought stock in a company where the CEO was jailed he day after I bought the stock and the company got delisted, and I ended up losing 90% of my investment, and I owned some rental houses in Central Washington where the tenants chose to spend the rent money on cheap wine rather than rent, and ended up happily selling the property at a loss.

Also, the south end is going straight back to the urban jungle it was climbing out of – White Ctr, Burien, Tukwila, Skyway, Columbia City – get ready for more and more crime in those lovely locales. All you have to do is drive to Tacoma, Sammamish, anywhere outside of 10 top-tier areas, and you see so many for sale signs. People know the apoacalypse is headed at them. Anyone who put all their retirement in their home is DOOMED. We’re headed towards a Soviet-style destruction of a senior generation. The younger generations are gonna learn how to work again, whivch will be good for all.

oh yeah, to Dori Monsen, and all the other jerktard republicans who said noone would ever ride the light rail, they can’t bring that thing online fast enough.
So glad the end of the repub ass-clown era is over. The best news in a long time.

747B it is. still sold in 2005 for $625k.

his capital hill one deejayoh posted

http://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/747-Harvard-Ave-E-98102/unit-B/home/2086131

Appears to be one unit a 4 unit townhouse project and that particular unit has no sales history. Redfin’s maps don’t appear to handle sales history properly for some divided zoning types in seattle.

I’m not sure what you’re loking at, but the unit at that address was built in 2004, sold in 2005.

Year Built: 2004

Sales History
Date Price Appreciation
Jun 16, 2004 $537,000 –
May 23, 2005 $625,000 17.7%/yr

here it is on zillow
http://www.zillow.com/HomeDetails.htm?zprop=49147742

http://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/747-Harvard-Ave-E-98102/unit-B/home/2086131

Appears to be one unit a 4 unit townhouse project and that particular unit has no sales history. Redfin’s maps don’t appear to handle sales history properly for some divided zoning types in seattle.

If you use the zillow search (or whatever data you have) and look for sales or listings of single family homes with lots 3000 sq ft or under in seattle neighborhoods you will be able to find a lot of the people that got stuck.

When I was looking for houses (parts of 2005 and most of 2006) and tracking sales of houses I had looked at it seemed like there was little correlation between the lot size and the price on entry level Seattle houses. The Charlie Munger in me started to wonder what incentive I wasn’t understanding, looking more closely it usually was a combination of a low listing price, waived inspection, staging, stainless steel, bamboo floors and kentucky bluegrass sod.

At one house the owner proudly told me he replaced the 1 year old stainless appliances from the previous owner because the brands didn’t match and that would kill your value. (he also replaced all the bedroom windows with greenhouse windows that are not code for bedrooms and tore up the original “boring black and white checkerboard” kitchen floor and replaced it with the bamboo)

Some people’s kids.

http://www.postlets.com/res/791505

One of the houses from the post appears to be divided as well.

http://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/9412-35th-Ave-SW-98136/home/473263

though not listed on the parcel viewer

Look at the lot size of the house next door (4800 sq ft)

http://www.zillow.com/HomeDetails.htm?zprop=48957247

and the lot size listed on the sale listing (2400 sq ft) it is not listed on redfin.

http://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/9412-35th-Ave-SW-98136/home/473263

Looking at the parcel viewer map, I think that one may have been a sub-divide.

Ah. looks likely. That would explain this description: Small, inviting & easy to care for yard.

Capitol Hill
05/05: $625k, today $575k
02/08: $1200k; today $1198k

Madrona:
07/07: $950k, today $675k

Could someone please tell these people how strong the market is close in? They seem to have not gotten the notice.

http://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/112-W-Florentia-St-98119/home/131223/nwmls-28044128

http://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/1520-8th-Ave-W-98119/home/132307

It’s that old “selling dollars for 95 cents” business model. Make it up on volume

Purchased in July ‘07 for $445,000, and on sale now for $399,000

http://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/729-N-80th-St-98103/home/301345

Bought on 6/15/07 for ~510K
Asking for 826K

Is West Seattle really worth that kind of money?

Excuse me, people who don’t own houses are not “homeless”. They are called “renters”.

She was trying to be nice. Being a renter is even worse than being homeless you know. At least the homeless aren’t throwing their money down a bottomless pit of never-ending rentership.

My GF and I looked at it, but I ultimately realized that prices are heading lower and opted not to buy.

You and lots of other people thinking this way is the biggest reason why prices will fall. It’s a self-fulfilling prophecy, just as it was when the bubble was expanding.

Royal Bank of Scotland issues global stock and credit crash alert: “The Royal Bank of Scotland has advised clients to brace for a full-fledged crash in global stock and credit markets over the next three months as inflation paralyses the major central banks.”

The chickens are accelerating home to roost.

2. Remember the power of leverage. What other investment can you buy with only 10% (or 15%, or 20%) of your money on the line, while the gain you receive is on 100% of the asset’s value?

Foreign currency trading works the same way. Doesn’t necessarily mean I should buy a bunch of euros. Thanks Susan for the great advice.

Now, with even the Summer prices plummetting; the media did a McCain/Obama gear shift on issues…..now housing will bottom in early 2009. When early 2009 is upon us, the con media will allege housing prices will bottom out in mid-2009, etc, etc…..

Folks, IMO, I really don’t see the light at the end of the tunnel soon. Wait, I do see a light in the distance, its the train engine light heading for us with more price collapses for a possible “pro-longed period”.

….

However, since home-as-investment thinking currently prevails, here are three reasons to buy now:

1. The Seattle area is poised to become what analysts call a “Superstar City” like New York and San Francisco, with a base of wealth and desirability that trumps overall market factors, keeping prices high. And even with a short-term downturn, long-term your house is likely to increase in value, as homes in the US have ever since this country was founded.

2. Remember the power of leverage. What other investment can you buy with only 10% (or 15%, or 20%) of your money on the line, while the gain you receive is on 100% of the asset’s value?

And in a softened market there is that other type of leverage. The kind that makes sellers offer concessions and induces builders to throw in upgrades. Buyers have the edge in negotiation now more than in the five preceding years or even longer.

3. If you’re selling your current home and buying another, you may not make as much on the sale as you might have a year ago, but a bigger, better house is more in reach now than at the top of the market. Waiting to sell until the market picks up may make that move-up just out of reach as well.

Even though buying a home is much more than an investment, buying now is a good investment.

How many people lost their ass thanks to her?

Since it costs less to rent a house than to pay the mortgage and taxes on the same house, why should anyone become homeless because of foreclosure? In addition most foreclosees received 6 to 12 months of free accommodation after they stopped making payments.

From what I have read the people in this tent city are not foreclosees but the traditional homeless – people with mental or physical health, or drug problems. There is one man who claims to be a foreclosee but as I said, if he was in a position to “buy” a house why can’t he just rent? BBC story:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/7297093.stm

http://www.ziprealty.com/buy_a_home/logged_in/search/my_home_detail.jsp?property_type=SFR&source=NWMLS&cKey=2z7sjtm6&listing_num=28096324&mls=mls_seattle

My GF and I looked at it, but I ultimately realized that prices are heading lower and opted not to buy. It is actually a nice house, and the picture doesn’t do it justice at all. The downside was the double ovens were gone, the island stove top was missing, and a resentful previous owner took a utility knife to a section of the recroom carpet. The rest of the house was in great condition. One big downer is the EIFS siding. It looked to be in excellent condition, but I’m very wary of that kind of siding–especially in the wet PacNW.

The house sold after 7 days on the market, which demonstrates that houses will sell if sellers set the prices realistically. The homes that are languishing are the result of owners who are either unwilling to lower prices to match fundamental market levels or owners who just can’t do that. This stubborness will wear off by next spring selling season, as owners become increasingly accustomed to the idea houses should cost something in the neighborhood of what they cost in 2004.

Current listing is here:
http://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/4103-38th-Ave-S-98118/home/171121

Current asking price is $294,700. Last sale was Feb 06, 2008 for $310,000.

The kicker is that the place has been on the market for many months, for WAY less–I believe quite a bit less than $250K. Foreclosure, bought by the “we buy ugly houses” people. It was the lowest-priced 3 BR house on the market within a few miles of my house, and the pictures made it look like a total disaster inside.

Then within the last month, a flurry of activity…lots of change on the outside, and from the pics on the listing, inside as well…

And still listed for less than the last sales price!

I sort of laughed until I saw the video “tent city” on youtube about tent cities sprung up in LA and other california cities hit by foreclosure. Now I realized that these people probably put up their lives’ savings to purchase their first home at an unaffordable price, and now they are losing both home and money.

They have my full sympathy, and this year we are donating to local food pantry instead of some remote disaster in Africa.

2615 Passage View Lane Northeast, Poulsbo WA 98370

Excuse me, people who don’t own houses are not “homeless”. They are called “renters”.

The following article came across my desk today (Oh, and a tip about the WorkSource jobs it talks about: the average wage for a job from a job placement by WorkSource in Seattle is $15/hr. In other areas, the jobs average about $10/hr. IOW, don’t plan on paying a mortgage on a Seattle area home that currently costs 2x as much as it did 7 years ago if you end up down at the WorkSource office trying to find a job.

Washington’s unemployment rate rose in May

OLYMPIA – Washington’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate increased to 5.3 percent in May, up from April’s rate of 4.7 percent, according to the state Employment Security Department.

This marks the first time in 20 months that the rate has been above 5 percent. The rise in unemployment was accompanied by a decline of 2,600 non-agricultural jobs.

The total number of non-agricultural jobs in Washington was up 38,200, a 1.3 percent increase over the same time in 2007. Nationally, job growth for the past year was 0.2 percent.

Industries in Washington with the largest job growth in May were professional business services, with 1,200 new jobs, and information, with 500 new jobs. The largest declines were in retail, down 1,100, education and health services, down 700 jobs, and government, also down 700.

“The nation’s economic downturn is finally catching up with us, but we are still doing better than a lot of the country,” said Employment Security Commissioner Karen Lee.

An estimated 176,060 people (not seasonally adjusted) are unemployed and seeking work in Washington.

Employment Security and its affiliated WorkSource offices across the state continue to offer a variety of employment services to job seekers, including free help with their interviewing skills or résumés and with job referrals.

Locations of local WorkSource offices are listed in the blue pages of telephone books and online at http://www.go2worksource.com. Assistance also is available by phone at 877-872-5627.

In addition, more than 26,000 current job openings are posted on http://www.go2worksource.com.

This one’s definitely a short sale:
http://www.estately.com/my_estately#listings/info/1044782

789K last year.

720K and sitting now.

I do not have access to the NWMLS. It would be interesting to know if those listings The Tim gave us as examples in the original blog post are “short sales.”

Use KC parcel viewer to find the parcel number. Then search public records using the parcel number to see if there is a Notice of Trustee Sale on the house. Then search public records on the owner’s name to see how many other properties they own and how many are being foreclosed on.

http://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/4422-Bagley-Ave-N-98103/unit-311/home/8188868

The funny thing about this one is that the current owners were “chronicled” on the local news (can’t remember which station) about a year ago and were painted as “successes” in the real estate boom here in Seattle.

Another great attempted flip was a penthouse in the Cosmopolitan (#3203) that was purchased for $1.2MM. It was for rent for a while, and then up for sale at I believe $1.3MM-1.35MM . It is now off the market and the builder currently has unit #3303 (same sf, floorplan etc…just a smaller deck) at an asking price of 899K.

Jillayne –
I don’t think most of these are short sales. At least from what I have seen the listing will say it is a short sale, given all the hoops a buyer needs to jump through

I think for the last few months, sellers have been giving away a lot of extras to get the house sold.

Actually, the pendulum started swinging a few years ago when the buyer was paying closing costs and then those expenses were shared, and now the buyer pays nothing.

The so-called McMansion, he said, will become the new multi-family home for the poor.

http://edition.cnn.com/2008/TECH/06/16/suburb.city/?iref=mpstoryview