Took me awhile to find it. Here’s a post a friend of mine wrote regarding Zip Codes and Newcastle. Semi-related.

http://www.activerain.com/blogsview/350325/Newcastle-we-can-t

You make my point, Ira. The move to separate was to say, “We’ re special…they’re riff-raff.” Is that really the role of the mls? To single out special and lump together “the riff-raff” into basically “we don’t care about those areas enough to break them down into smaller segments.” Declare them a kind of “no man’s land”?

Here’s the question. We have an un-quenched thirst for statistics. How would the NWMLS approach this? KC stats are one thing, then it pares down to the “Eastside” or “Seattle”, then down to the area. As I mentioned some of the areas are so large that they get distorted anyway, however, it’s more accurate than looking just at the larger KC.

Perhaps The Tim’s suggestion of zip codes? I’m doing a lot of zip code work with AR’s when working with sellers anyway.

I can see one issue that would hinder change and that would be the rich history of YOY stats for established areas.

Any other ideas from the statistical point of view?

The Tim, you’re a statistics junkie, any thoughts?

The problem is that some areas get identified into smaller segments in a “we’re special” manner. Such is the case with this newest change. Then those considered “less special” as in all of area 600, get lumped together. When you throw half of Kirkland into the “not special enough” category and lump poor Juanita into an area so huge that it makes no sense to search by area 600, it hurts those sellers. The mls should not be making these “classist” decisions and the whole numbering system should be tossed, OR no area should be larger than X miles to make it more fair.

Given we can draw a circle or a box or even a polygon around any area we want to search, the area numbers should be eliminated. They go back to the DOS version of the mls and should go the way of the do-do bird, IMNSHO.

In order (in my opinion), here are the 3 major things that cause a home to sell.

1. Pricing at the right price.
2. Putting the home in the best possible condition.
3. Exposure — making it easy for agents to show, and marketing.

You cannot market an overpriced pig to success.

Statistically the LP must be within 2% of the eventual sales price for good odds of success.

I agree, good negotiation is critical. If the LP to SP % is too far away however, a negotiation rarely happens.

Speaking of negotiation, a very elementary concept goes like this, “Time is the enemy of the Seller”.

CDOM is a critical component in negotiation.

You’re original premise “Days on the market is a dangerous thing for Real Estate agents.” in my opinion is preposterous.

And no, you shouldn’t say “GD” on any blog. Again, my opinion.

In response to member requests and their input, NWMLS is implementing Area Designation and Boundary changes in the Newcastle/Renton area to more accurately reflect the true market areas in this section of Bellevue/Renton. This boundary change will take effect on June 24th, 2008. Click here to see how the map will change.

Hopefully this will work: http://www.nwmls.com/discover/library/monday_update/MonUpdates/MU2008/Jun08/KC_SW_350_500.pdf

You bring up a good point. We don’t have to search for a property by area. Thomas guide map page, zip code, city, address are a few other ways to search. Often in 600 I use the map page, and the area number to throw out the “double entries” from 560. I also enjoy using the mapping (by address or listing number) features.

The Tim,
You will have to rewrite 500. The NWMLS did a border change(expanded the southern border) . Just a guess, but perhaps the residents around Newcastle golf course took exception for being in the “Renton” zone? (speaking to snobbery?)

If you haven’t’ seen the revised border , email me on Monday. I’ll send it to you.

For the most part you will find that the smaller areas are “preferred” areas and then they lump a lot of the rest together. I haven’t used them in years as a search tool, though It’s a required field that I have to enter when I upload a listing.

Don’t worry about all the work you did. I don’t see them being ditched until some old people retire :)

I agree though, what’s the deal with those funky-shaped areas? Is something wrong with zip codes?

I think we should scrap the whole area code number system. Now that we can do a map search and target the area, are “secret code area numbers” really relevant anymore? Area 600 is huge! Who cares if it’s area 705 or 710. And we all know it just invites snobbery regarding certain codes. Not fair for people who just happen to fall on the other side of the area code line.

Aren’t they a bit antiquated at this point?

Just let me know!

Ray Pepper
http://www.500Realty.net

LOL, I think you have “noted the Bull” there NotaBull.

how bout realty499.net

Ben, you can also create free blogs at Blogspot/Blogger, Myspace also hs free built-in blogging.

Did you know that you can make your own blog for free at wordpress?

I agree. In some ways he reminds me of an old school religious preacher in that it doesn’t *matter* if people are getting fed up of the message. Ray likely believes that the message is so important that it deserves to be said over and over again, and rammed down everyone’s throats until they too see the truth. It just so happens that his beliefs and the conversion of others are strongly correlated with his personal business success. :)

I think we can set the bar a bit higher than that, however.

Goat Hill is just above the border. (The border is tricky there.) Take a look at your map :)

But yes, I agree with your thought. I am seeing a few abuses creeping back in.

Right after they changed the rule, I was turned down flat on a border listing between 610 and 730 (between 1/2 and 1 mile away). This area is no man’s land and should have been allowed because it made common sense.

I am strongly opposed to outright abuses of double listings. If an agent can show a good common sense reason for an exception, perhaps a some negotiating should be allowed.

I do think, however that the MLS is working toward developing a culture toward maintaining accuracy.

Ray could easily have a blog on Active Rain (and may), but that still doesn’t define a comment as a blog on someone else’s post.

Still, I expect his efforts are somewhat successful, or he wouldn’t be doing it. He’s likely an “ends justifies the means” kind of guy. If it gets him money in the bank to be a pain in the butt, he has no incentive to try to “get it”.

He reminds me of Vern Fonk. I think that’s his name. Does anyone Honk when they pass Fonk on the Freeway?

Greg, I don’t see this being enforced. Just saw one in Goat Hill listed as 600 and 560.

Also, regarding Andy’s comment, I’m 99% sure you can’t upload a listing as STI (or Pending Inspection). They may have changed that rule, but putting in listings that are already in escrow used to be a violation. I thought it would be good for comps for agents and appraisers, but was told it was not permitted.

You could upload it while there was “an offer on the table”, but not if the offer was accepted back when I last checked. One of my clients received an offer from a builder and he was not on market at the time. We put it on market for $150,000 more than the builder offer and got it from another builder. This was last summer in Ballard at 7th and Market. It shows in the mls, but had we accepted the first builder’s offer, I don’t think I could put it in the mls just to get back ups. I can’t find that rule now, so they may have changed it.

RAY PEPPER — LOOK HERE! READ THIS!

You are not a “blogger” by posting here. A blogger is someone that has their own blog. This is not your blog, so posting here does not make you a blogger. It makes you a commenter on someone else’s blog. The only person that is a blogger by posting here is The Tim, because it is his blog.

The only way to be a “blogger” is to have YOUR OWN blog, not posting on someone else’s blog. Understand?

It’s infuriating! Ever see Monty Python and the Holy Grail? The scene with the peasant in the field that won’t shut up about politics and the “violence inherent in the system”. Dealing with Ray reminds me of that… “Help help, I’m being oppressed”, wailed Ray. Sigh.

RAY, LISTEN TO ME.

YOU ARE NOT BLOGGING. YOU DO NOT HAVE A BLOG. YOU ARE “POSTING COMMENTS” ON TIM’S BLOG. TIM’S BLOG. TIM’S BLOG.

Please copy and paste the following text in response so I can confirm your understanding of this very complicated and nuanced difference:

“I, Ray Pepper, understand that I am not “blogging” and am in fact posting comments on Tim’s blog. I understand that because it is not my blog I am therefore a guest on Tim’s blog (not *my* blog), and as such do not have the right to endlessly annoy others with my constant self promotion and rants regarding my business model.”

When the market was hot, I generally sold several FSBO’s a year. I would negotiate my commission and create a commission agreement prior to submitting the offer.

In regards to Andy’s comment, agents do not manipulate data in that way. What he described would actually hurt the seller. If an agent did manipulate data in such a way –and got caught– fines would be heavy handed.

In reality the biggest abuse in agent manipulation of the data has always been DOM. I remember doing hours of research tying to determine CDOM prior to the MLS rule change. CDOM was an issue that I lobbied hard for.

Other common manipulations were cancel / relist abuses and listing in multiple MLS zones. (We always enjoy seeing an area 600 Kingsgate house in unincorporated KC listed in 560 Kirkland.) We can still list in multiple zones but we are charged $50 and it must be within 1/2 mile of the border.

In the last 5 years or so, the MLS has worked very hard to tighten up the integrity of the data. Sure agents gripe because fines are “heavy handed”. Frankly, supervision by some brokers in the field was so poor that they had no choice in my opinion. (BTW, the fines go to the offending broker)

Consumers really shouldn’t be suspicious of the intentions of the MLS when it comes to data. As several here have pointed out here lately this MLS is at least open to sharing the data.

As Ardell points out, with plentiful inventory, a buyer would really want to have a house badly to entertain going in to a back up postition. In a hot market, we see more.

This new rule will effectively not allow this anymore. Is this to discourage pocket listings?

More often than not, a backup offer will encourage the seller to be less negotiable with the buyer in escrow. Backup offers are not really good for buyers in the long run. More people may end up buying homes without having the appropriate leverage to have needed repairs done before closing. When there is a second buyer in line and in contract, the seller will clearly agree to less with either buyer from the inspection.

I see comments about the Gov’nor jumping on the sue Countrywide bandwagon. Just a thought….where was she when they were doing all of the damage? Oh….its an election year. That explains her behavior. Funny thing she did the same with Household Finance when she was Attorney General. After the hard work was done by other states that actually gave a crap she jumped on the settlement bandwagon and let them off easily with the damaged to remain damaged for life. Even less funny was the fact that Booth Gardner who was her boss for years was the one who represented Household in the settlement. Remember that when you vote.

As for devaluing my own Brand. Johnny… As long as people buy right. I’m very happy. Its the ones that do NOT know I target. This concept is not allowed in many states and the citizens here should be very happy that we exist. Education Johhny. Its all about education.

Just as Gates wanted a PC in every home. I want everyone to know there is only one way to BUY homes that are listed on the MLS. Those that seek to obscure and hide the message infuriates me. As for shameless promotion try this: USE RED FIN! TELL EVERYONE YOU KNOW! FURTHERMORE MLS4OWNERS if you are selling! Both great companies and many more coming down the pike. But, please tell everyone you know HOW TO BUY!

Ray Pepper the
“troll” “bloviator” “self promoter” “arrogant ass” “idiot” and a multitude of others I forgot..

I wonder if some agencts falsely mark them STI in an attempt to make it look as though there’s interest from buyers that simply don’t exist…and when the non-existent deal falls through some poor slob gets suckered into buying it thinking he got a lucky break.

Anyone else notice this?

Basically the sellers are forced to sit in the penalty box while they are evaluating their offer…no chance for a better (possibly non-contingent) buyer to come along and bid it up.

Something seems strange about the MLS’s plan…. I think the main reason they want to do that is because it will immediately have an effect on the inventory levels by LOWERING the number of homes ‘officially’ on the market. Say 1 in 50 or 1 in 100 homes in the market have some kind of offer pending on it.. that decreases the inventory (since they can officially remove the listing) by 1-2%…and to me, thats a conservative number.

have you considered a ‘user rating system’. That way people can recommend posts, or put a thumbs down on usless / troll type posts. (ie. sickening advertisements ect). Maybe if a user gets enough thumbs down, he will realize that he is devaluing his own brand by his shameless (and I meant truly shameless) self promotion.

good lord Ray… you used to be so cool… what happened to you man?

I just shake my head……

(who thinks it’s that easy? )

Then if it comes back on, its old news and passed over.

(I guess in today’s Internet age the even consumer can’t find this property ever again. I guess I can’t ever show it?)

Then a good deal is a good deal no matter how long it’s been for sale.

(Hmmmmm this is just weird in my way of thinking. Come to think of it I was working with a Seller of an expired property the other day who was convinced his house was a good deal at $610k. He had 265 days CDOM, and he was still convinced it was a “deal”.

The days on market are there to encourage low offers.
(If CDOM shows 265 days, you bet your bippy!)

But you don’t think it’s working.
(Have you tracked the “New Listings vs. Price reductions lately?)

The Real Estate community responsible for run up prices?
(It seemed to me that lots of buyers were competing for few listings)

When it does nothing for anybody.
(Nothing?? for Anybody??)

DL, is there anything about the NWMLS that you like and agree with?

Is your position that you want to hide all pertinent information? Maybe he NWMLS should just roll over and quit trying to create transparency.

EVERY pending sale can take a backup offer. In every state every offer must be presented until the property closes. Any time you see a sign in front of a house, you can bring a backup offer. That is true whether it is subject on inspection or 5 days from closing or if the seller “invites” you to or not.

The problem with showing those that “invite” backup offers on public sites, is that every other seller is being shorted. So next thing you know every single Pending listing will be on the public sites too. I guess that’s OK, but it will be a whole lot harder for people to find the ones that are really for sale, so be careful what you wish for.

I will try my best to not be a troll. I have 3 kids with 1 more coming next year and as I tell them “Never use the word hate.” My remarks “I can’t stand RCG and RCG makes me sick” sounds better. But, I can change my mind easily if I decide to ever blog there again.

Until then Seattle Bubble is my outlet and the News Tribune. However, I tend to get deleted over there when I start yelling ” Come on now—-Stop telling me Editorial is different then Advertising…..Do a story on How to BUY REAL ESTATE…People in Tacoma NEED TO KNOW…..They have NOT EVER HEARD OF RED FIN…..1 "golly" story ! Heck interview REAL PEOPLE who want to talk about us. The testimonial section continues to GROW and day after day we hear…”How come everyone doesn’t use you? I still don’t believe it!…Is this legal? Why doesn’t everyone do it?…………..over and over…

My blood pressure is going up again….Time to watch the Family Guy “Syrup of Ipecac” episode. That always gets me to relax..

Ray Pepper
http://www.500Realty.net