The only thing you should be loading up on is PUTs.

I’m thinking its about time to back-up the truck on CHTR again. Debt ridden Paul Allen ventures. I have traded it for years at this level. I think im 6-6. Hmmmmmm as it hits a buck IM IN.

Hope oil gaps up tomorrow and the mkt tanks. I will jump in again full throttle.

All of south wants to move north, adding more workers to a shrinking labor pool and pop goes the real estate bubble.

Now I’d agree with your assertion if everyone wanted to move south, it ain’t so in the least. Nope, open borders bank management caused the real estate mess, once the hoards came north and we sattled ‘em much of them with preditory loans. I think you realize that.

Between the mortgage fiasco resulting in the melt down of the dollar and world wide demand for oil we are in for a tough ride for (my guess) 10 years. In that time AE should be economically viable. Our low income residents will be in a heck of hurt between driving to work and heating their residences (homes will be lost to foreclosures). The same can be said for the middle income folks in the developing world.

I wouldn’t hold your breath. It looks as if Congress will try to point the finger and blame everyone else first. Currently it appears that they are attempting to curb speculation in the oil market.

Actually drilling for more oil will probably be their last resort. By then it will be much too late.

This point is somewhat moot however, because a Democratic Congress has shown absolutely ZERO desire to allow further oil exploration and drilling. If oil prices reach a point to where democrats decide its a good idea to drill, it will be far too late.

As we get closer to the election, I’m sure you’ll hear a lot of people in Congress changing their tune, at least until the day after the election.

“We’re from the government, and we’re here to help!” AAcck!

Does it seem strange to anyone else that when the stock market tanked the price of Real Estate went up, and now that Real Estate has tanked the price of oil has gone up? It seems like one thing after another.

Holy crap! Something coherent!

You’ve noticed something very important Dave. Every time the Fed pumps liquidity into the markets to try to save a speculative bubble from bursting they end up blowing another bubble somewhere else. I mean, give a bunch of investment bankers access to a bunch of money and guess what they’re going to do. Invest it. Since fad A turned out to be a bust they gotta find a different fad.

Its too late now. I find it ironic that elites from both political parties preach green then go home to their mansions in Hummers or private jets. Even Ralph Nader leads a frugal life; but his millions in the bank fund energy consumption projects galore.

None of us are innocent.

Oil prices are largely dependent upon supply and demand. The fact of the matter is that supply has remained flat for the last 7-8 years or so, while demand has increased. The industrialization of developing nations such as China and India is adding immense pressure to global demand. Even if you tapped all the US oil tomorrow that is easily refined, you would hardly add enough oil to the world supply to make much of a difference. This point is somewhat moot however, because a Democratic Congress has shown absolutely ZERO desire to allow further oil exploration and drilling. If oil prices reach a point to where democrats decide its a good idea to drill, it will be far too late. By the time oil rigs, pipelines, wells, and contracts are established high energy prices will already have sapped the consumer for all they are worth.

“Must be time to buy:” ??

SOLD TO YOU!

As for “How will 2% of subprime going bad hurt housing”?, that whole market collapsed a year ago, and we have yet to see the long promised single month of decline. I’m not saying it won’t happen, it’s just the coverage has gone excessively gloomy these past few weeks. Must be time buy!

LOL…remember when the housing bulls were saying “How will 2% of subprime going bad hurt housing”?

2007 Housing Bull = stupid person

2008 Housing Bull = scared person

We are at least 5 years out from getting to any of our oil reserves. Drilling is not a short term strategy, by the time Congress would even approve drilling, the economy will be on the fast track to hell and housing prices in Seattle will be plummeting.

As long as the price of oil is too low to make solar thermal viable, or make people allow drilling over the horizon off FL and CA, or in some forsaken wilderness in the Arctic, its not really that high. People will just have to decide if saving the mosquitos is worth riding the bus to work.

And how is a 0.5% recession very grim?

I hear a good percentage of the growth [like almost half of it] was inventory hoarding [like people hoarding bags of rice at COSTCO before it sky-rockets in price]. The stimulus checks probably helped a bit too.

The real GDP is recessionary, about 0.5%. A very grim quarter.

I also hope the media slows the crash down by using your type of alleged optimism as “positive brainwashing” to psychologically blind us temporarily. It beats a quick crash, but crash it will be sooner or later.

The huge difference between now and past recessions is wage growth butcher-axing from worker overages [outsourcing and insourcing] competing for dwindling jobs, especially industrial base ones. The 787 is not a good example, its 90% outsourced. The 767 Tanker Contract is a good example, the tools are all mostly at the Everett Plant….but Boeing hasn’t got the contract yet and we won’t know for almost a year. During the 1970 recession unions were strong, wages for those that worked were going up like 10% a year with rising hyper inflation; today we lie about food and gas [took it out of the COLA} and exagerate the COLA at 2-3%, even you Jon must see this a complete joke today.

Europe is really irritated with us, re: our low mortgage and savings interest rates are causing oil [collapsed dollar based] to sky-rocket in price, as I agree with Europe, we must step up to the plate now and drastically raise interest rates or watch the whole world fall into a massive recession from projected $250/bbl oil next year [Russian oil company prediction].

Sure they will have buyers, just not as many buyers as they had before. The argument was that a weaker dollar was BETTER for Boeing, not that airplane sales will CEASE.

Higher fuel costs = less travel = less need for new planes. Just like:
Higher fuel costs = less driving = less auto sales. Sure demand for hybrids and other high MPG cars will increase, but overall car and SUV sales are going down.

How does a falling dollar help Boeing if rising fuel costs mean that no airline company wants to buy more planes? Is that why Boeing stock was down 13 percent this week?????

Try again.

Carbon cap and trade is a farce put forth by those who hope to manage and profit from the process- it has very little effect on net carbon levels, but seriously distorts markets and adds a layer of cost we soon won’t be able to afford. I wouldn’t place large bets on its becoming a reality. Lots of talk no doubt, but little real change.

Phyllis Etzler Tomaras

http://www.king5.com/localnews/stories/NW_062708WAB_jewelry_theft_KS.464b6e67.html

Confirmation of a bear market.

No matter which party sits on the White House next year, there will be “cap and trade” of carbon. And a ton of jobs related to controlling, studying, and administering it. Plants will need Environmental Engineers and Env. Sciences major in general. All will be in their 20s and 30s. Bubba, in his 50s, will "female dog" about the new “educated kids” that don’t know "chocolate" about running a plant. I’ve been selling industrial instrumentation for almost 20 years so I’ve seen this movie before (and in very large corporations).

Time will tell….

This time it is just some boneheaded decisions on lending standards and a bunch of weekend Donald Trumps who know a good heads-I-win-tails-the-bank-loses deal when they see it. It’s simply a matter of time until bank capital recovers once they figure out who’s pocket it will all come out of.

The EU is falling apart, Japan is entering negative population growth, and China and India are suffering from rising labor costs. Meanwhile a falling dollar helps Boeing and Washington in general.

The American consumer is 70 percent of our GDP and they are completely tapped out. Without the stimulus check GDP most certainly would be negative right now. Incomes are up due to the stimulus package, but yet consumer spending was barely up. Why? J6P is paying down debt and spending his extra money on food and oil.

The Fed is completely screwed. They have rising price inflation that can’t be stopped without raising interest rates. If they raise interest rates, they further screw housing and the financial sector. The ECB is almost certain to raise rates next week which will further weaken the dollar.

We had a poll recently where over 50 percent of the people on this blog didn’t believe that the DOW would hit 10k in a years time. Yet since that poll we have already lost 1000k points and are a mere 1350k from reaching 10k already!

Sorry, I don’t see the outcome looking peachy. Consumers are spending more money but maxing out their credit cards. Credit card balances have risen over 12% in the last couple of months, and are another impending disaster. The housing market has far from bottomed as witnessed by the recent Case Shiller and mortgage application data. This is going to be a long and deep recession if not a full blown depression, batten down the hatches and prepare for the worst.

Countrywide Home Loans is facing a $1 million fine and the loss of its mortgage business in Washington after a state agency determined that it charged minority borrowers more for its loans than it charged white borrowers in similar circumstances.

1: Windermere.com
2: JohnLScott.com
3: TheMLSOnline.com

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/06/26/AR2008062604030_pf.html

An Initiative is hitting our State likely to correct the apparent voting anomalies. I’m a Democrat turned Independent and I smell a skunk with illegal and invalid votes too, especially when the victory was like 45 votes to my recollection.

The Initiative will require drivers licenses and voting cards have valid social security numbers and citizenship (eVerification)……a no brainer in my book and horrifying if that isn’t the case anyway.

No wonder we can’t go to Canada/Mexico anymore without a picture passport, our Wash St drivers license is a complete security joke.

Just like the banks got hammered on mortgages, they are about to get creamed on commercial paper. The financial networks have been talking about it for weeks. That’s why Morgan Stanley is facing yet another downgrade.

It’s coming in waves.

King County still hasn’t really fixed their elections dept. What adventures will this Fall bring?

Why isn’t she going after WAMU as well? The Tim is correct in saying she wasn’t doing crap while the bubble was inflating because she was trying to get elected and anyone doing anything perceived as being negative towards housing at that time probably wouldn’t have been elected. Then again, it’s debatable that she was elected, but I’ll save that for the forums.

Have a good weekend everybody!

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/

Looks like we might have a half-price sale in Seattle area after all.